Monday, February 19, 2018

Cold Front Moving Through

I am glad I haven't planted the tomatoes.  Snow level to 1400 feet tonight.  At least you all get a break from my tedious bragging about the weather.  At 8:30AM Monday the temp dropped 10 degrees in 15 minutes. 
Not my picture.  But may happen.
It should still be warm enough for the Wednesday dawn Falcon 9 launch

44 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Warm on the right side of the continent.

Lawyerliz said...

Perhaps a prospective gun owner should be required to recite the second amendment and receive 2 hours of weapons training, in addition to background checks. This is quite minimal, I think. Add no automatic weapons and no bump stocks.

LBD said...

12F today snow flurries.

What requirements would you suggest for knives, hand weapons, Rental trucks, pressure cookers, 5 gallons of gas for arson, propane tanks, etc. Take one away and a nut will study and proceed in a different manor. My emotion would like to think gun control would be effective but the realist side say to many options at the expense of gun control.

Firemane said...

Knives and pressure cookers don't kill 30,000 people a year.

And the day someone kills 17 civilians in a single incident while wielding a machete, I will reconsider my position ... which is similar to Elizabeth's.

Assault weapons serve NO REASONABLE CIVILIAN FUNCTION. I grew up in rural NC where shotguns and rifles are everywhere.

Australia has had incredibly good response to their efforts to curb gun violence since a 1996 mass shooting.

https://www.factcheck.org/2017/10/gun-control-australia-updated/

*Under the 1996 law, Australia banned certain semi-automatic, self-loading rifles and shotguns, and imposed stricter licensing and registration requirements. It also instituted a mandatory buyback program for firearms banned by the 1996 law.*

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/australia-gun-control/541710/

*" ... at least some of the restrictions put in place after the 1996 massacre have been loosened more than two decades after the killings. Four of Australia’s six states have eased rules mandating the 28-day waiting period between applying to buy a gun and purchasing it. There are estimated to be as many guns in Australia now as there were at the time of the Port Arthur massacre—though the level of gun violence is not comparable.*

In truth, statistically, the largest drop in gun deaths in Australia is linked to a major drop in suicide (and specifically suicide by gun).

It IS possible to allow gun ownership WITHOUT fostering, supporting, and encouraging a gun culture that is fixated on steadily increasing levels of violence.

Lawyerliz said...

Less drought?

Rob Dawg said...

> "Assault weapons serve NO REASONABLE CIVILIAN FUNCTION. I grew up in rural NC where shotguns and rifles are everywhere"

Absolutely. No autos, no bump stocks, no machine pistols. Magazines maxed to 15 or so. Testing as strong and frequent as drivers' licenses. Cartridge/bullet traceability to a certain extent. Renewal similar but less onerous and less frequent to auto emissions testing. Guns are very much like cars in that they are private things that should pass public interest criteria.

Rob Dawg said...

> "In truth, statistically, the largest drop in gun deaths in Australia is linked to a major drop in suicide (and specifically suicide by gun)."

Australia is not a good example. True, gun deaths are beyond rare but that is displacement not prevention. Rates are just assigned to other methods.

I do find it [morbidly] fascinating that English speaking nations across the globe have far higher murder rates than can be explained otherwise. A job for someone else.

It may change with technology but for now the observation "an armed society is a polite society" still holds sway. If you doubt that ask how many at the high school were wishing they had a gun.

Rob Dawg said...

> "Take one away and a nut will study and proceed in a different manor."

The "nuts" are not the problem. They will probably do, by definition nutty things. We need to worry about the disenfranchised. Educated engineers, scientists, technicians who stop caring. Ten years ago I would have dropped a list of soft underbelly acts that would do major damage. These days that same list would earn me a visit from homeland security.

The one thing we cannot do is "get used to it." An unacceptable standard. The key is to eliminate the impetus not use overwhelming response to the reaction.

Rob Dawg said...

> "Less drought?"

Nope. Even the 6 inches in the mountains is only a 1/2" of water content. If we don't get late season inches we will likely be back in drought by mid-summer. To muddle the forecast, late season has been saving us and this year looks similar.

Lawyerliz said...

Isn't this a change?

Unknown said...

I can't help thinking that if I were an angry phycopath looking to do damage to society, the media has made it very clear what I should do for maximum heartbreak. Shoot up a school. We air the tragedy for weeks, interview all of the grieving parents, make very impassioned political statements on the floor of congress, etc. We put the results front and center and show them exactly how effective their actions will be.

Firemane said...

RobDawg,

Actually, no. Not having guns available does not simply result in other choices (for suicides). Guns are uniquely effective and immediate. Yes, "some" gun suicides will transfer ... but it is a significant drop in both success and attempt rates (based on a number of different areas where I've reviewed death data from different countries and changes in gun laws).





Firemane said...

My OPINION is that a lot of the worst outcomes from gun ownership in America are inherently linked to the macho BS surrounding them.

Just over half of all US suicides are by gun.
Men account for around 3/4 of all suicides, and heavily favor gun as method of choice. And estimates are that for every successful suicide there are 12-25 failures, (except almost no failures with guns).

I suspect that a lot of the same societal nudges that turn a significant number of men into wife beaters nudge some of the gun enthusiasts into gun nuts.

As with most things, trying to find the balance between protecting individual rights while promoting public safety is neither simple, nor easy.

Lawyerliz said...

Many marches by frightened children. Will Washington listen?

LBD said...

How much money do the kids lobbyist have to work with?

9/11 had no guns involved at all. Making assault guns illegal will only make criminals out of every body. After Vegas a friend of mine (very sane) made one just in case they do become illegal. The way the government has failed to handled many things for decades lead people to protect themselves including from the government.

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz: Just apply the laws we have about car ownership to gun ownership. The road map is there, just follow it.

Lawyerliz said...

What do you all think that 2nd amendment militia stuff means for today? Nothing?

Lawyerliz said...

None of the interviewed children expressed a desire for a gun. They resented the power of the near and the gifts to Congress people. They wanted to be safe. Guns in the hands of terrified teenagers? The carnage would have been worse.

Lawyerliz said...

NRA dyac

Lawyerliz said...

A quote from Heinlein??

Lawyerliz said...

Good nite.😴😪

TJandTheBear said...

So far I see lots of emotional arguments against guns but no logical ones, let alone any discussion as to the very purpose of the 2nd amendment (among other rights).

TJandTheBear said...

BTW, snow falling intermittently here but very little actually sticking.

Lawyerliz said...

The 2nd gives the purpose. You know, militias.
Is not the protection of children logical.?

LBD said...

Good Morning!

When the constitution was written I bet they never thought about school shootings and relied on self protection. Law breakers don't care about laws. Black market guns and parts would flourish. Correcting the decades of failed parenting is more at fault and demonizing guns with children will not fix the problem. Fear decisions are horrible. Break down of government communication and lack of enforcement killed these children more the any new law will fix. Until the problems are fixed arm the teachers and guards as a last resort. IMO

Rob Dawg said...

It was not an accident that the FFs put guns so high in the list.

Firemane said...

In 1776, individual towns formed militias for protection OF THE TOWN ... potentially from hostile Indians ... and eventually from the British.

But, America had NO standing army at the time ... and ALSO contained in the Constitution is Article 1, Section 8, Clause 12, which limits appropriation of money for the use of a standing army to 2 years.

Constitutionally, the fact we HAVE a standing army, and have had one since 1796 is a violation of the Constitution. And the standing army (IMHO), effectively removes any logic behind the 2nd Amendment.

At the time, a standing army was believed to be the gravest danger to 'the people', as the army could force capitulation by the populace to the whims of the government/monarch in charge of the army.

The "plan" was NO ARMY ... but, local militias would serve that role in a very localized manner ... but, then could be called up in the event of a Federal need. Selective Service registration has served that purpose since the draft was abolished.

But, in 1776, you had wild animals, hostile indian tribes, and a long steady European history of war after war after war.

Ironically, I have long viewed the 2nd Amendment as NOT protecting individual rights for self-defense, but protecting the right of citizens to protect TOWNS without Federal (or ARMY) interference.

But, in 1776 guns were slow-loading single shot weapons, and had been such for a couple hundred years. Highest rate of travel was a fast horse, and had been such from the beginning of time. There's no doubt that there were conflicts about how strong the central government was supposed to be - but from a PRACTICAL standpoint, at the time, local militias (mini-armies), were viewed as something of a necessity.

The 2nd Amendment was also a direct result of the British attempting to confiscate the "good" weapons used by local militias (which were NOT individually owned) - but stored locally - basically TOWN-owned firearms. Think volunteer fire department model. Town buys guns, keep them stored (along with powder). In the event of emergency, call goes out - and members of the militia come, grab their guns and form an instantaneous mini-army.

And if today, we wanted to have town-owned caches of ARs locked up, in the event of an attack by a hostile indian tribe, I would say that is fully supported by the Constitution. The notion that the original intent of the FF was to allow Bubba Joe Baker to have access to automatic weapons, because he thinks it's cool is preposterous.

Cinco-X said...

Gonna hit near 70° tomorrow. Too soon!

Lawyerliz said...

Yep!

LBD said...

How did they deal with school shootings back then? The constitution has been perverted since the day it was written. We will continue to do the wrong thing and have for way to long.

Audios and on to the next subject.

EngineerJim said...

Got down below 40 degrees last night which is cold for here.
Then we also have short downpours of rain for maybe 1 minute, then it's over. Fast moving clouds, I guess.

Rob Dawg said...

Did not hit 60° today. Maybe Saturday.

Lawyerliz said...

Can you see the launch from where you are?

Lawyerliz said...

There weren't that many schools.

Lawyerliz said...

There werent any AKS

dilbert dogbert said...

The sweet and wonderful wife is skiing in knee deep fresh power snow a Powder Mt, Ut and lov'n it.
Cold in Cool. Short dips below freezing in the mornings. A bit of fresh snow, couple of inches, at the Donner cabin.
After SWMBO comes homes she will run up skiing with her daughter at Sugar Bowl. BooHoo.

TJandTheBear said...

Funny how...

* the Bill of Rights guarantees individual rights... unless it's the second amendment.
* the words "the right of the people" throughout the document means individuals rights... unless it's the second amendment.
* the Bill of Rights is applicable across all eras... unless it's the second amendment.

You don't hear anyone saying the first amendment doesn't apply to radio, TV, internet, etc. because those didn't exist back then.

p.s.: The entire conversation shouldn't even be about guns. Do you blame the carpenter or his hammer? The doctor or his scalpel? The driver or his car?

Lawyerliz said...

Good nite. Both, both, both.
A well ordered militia.

TJandTheBear said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
TJandTheBear said...

"A well-regulated militia" is neither a qualification nor a limitation, otherwise it would obviously have been stated "the right of the militia".

“The Constitution of most of our states (and of the United States) assert that all power is inherent in the people; that they may exercise it by themselves; that it is their right and duty to be at all times armed.”
– Thomas Jefferson

Rob Dawg said...

Wednesday at 6:17 a.m. Pacific time at Vandenberg Air Force Base.

The conditions look perfect for an awesome show.

Cinco-X said...

That's why we call them lieburels
... Note that they never quote the anti-Federalists papers, even though they were part of the discussion when ratifying the Constitution. It's as though they never existed

Cinco-X said...

Don' ding, ding

Cinco-X said...

DYAC