tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post7399381281037912650..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: I Like This Old Map BetterRob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger179125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-34158315282352684072018-05-24T10:05:32.505-07:002018-05-24T10:05:32.505-07:00Looking for signs of irrational exuberance Real Es...Looking for signs of irrational exuberance Real Estate Investment Advisers is putting on a conference hosted by Tony Robbins and Pitbull.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13939788905597942778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-72903599372141940172018-05-24T09:56:13.582-07:002018-05-24T09:56:13.582-07:00Praise be! A new post! Praise be! A new post! Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-54587757419935502032018-05-24T07:48:17.237-07:002018-05-24T07:48:17.237-07:00That is where we differ. If you had to sing for yo...That is where we differ. If you had to sing for your diner you probably would have a completely differ attitude. Free loaders need to be part of the employable group. To late tech is coming!LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30692336388101895932018-05-24T07:27:23.645-07:002018-05-24T07:27:23.645-07:00Sometimes, when I start questioning my Full Employ...Sometimes, when I start questioning my Full Employment theory, a story appears that convinces me I'm right.<br /><br />https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/05/24/michael-rotondo-30-evicted-parents-explains-why-he-has-no-job/639948002/<br /><br />The 30-year old man whose parents had to legally evict him because he refused to get a job. The quote from him is priceless:<br /><br />"I was an excellent father," Rotondo claimed, saying he had taken his child fishing and skiing. "I was a great father, and [the child] needed me in their life.<br /><br />"That's why I'm not the CEO of a big company," he added. "That's why I'm living with my parents still."<br /><br />My interpretation of 4% unemployment is that 96% of people willing to look for jobs already have them. So, that 4% is predominantly the bottom 4% of the existing labor pool. Think of ANY subset of people and consider the quality within that subset compared to the whole.<br /><br />Now - imagine you were in a position where you HAD to accept the services of the following people - knowing that they are drawn from the bottom 4% of their profession:<br /><br />Doctor<br />Plumber<br />Auto-Mechanic<br />Brain Surgeon<br />Accountant<br />Financial Advisor<br />Waitress<br />Cashier<br /><br />Obviously, some of these choices are going to make you more nervous than others. But, what are the odds you're going to be thrilled with the results? And what is your bet on the continued growth of the national economy if it DEPENDS on the worst 4% of these people getting jobs?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-49652768428871613242018-05-24T06:34:10.002-07:002018-05-24T06:34:10.002-07:00Good Morning!
We legislated pollution out of the ...Good Morning!<br /><br />We legislated pollution out of the country more then we addressed it. We also raised labor costs and subsidize income with credit to a higher level. Works till the consumer becomes tapped out. Fun times ahead IMO. The powers of any country will grow as fast as the people will tolerate it and how much profit they can make. India has problems just like any emerging country. That is why the manufacturing will go to the lowest bidder. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-55975138540303906932018-05-24T06:23:01.356-07:002018-05-24T06:23:01.356-07:00Actually, concerns about the environment may be on...Actually, concerns about the environment may be one of the things holding India back (relative to China). I've read bits here and there that part of the reason India isn't exploiting its natural resources more aggressively is specifically due to environmental concerns. China has "largely" been "we'll deal with that later."<br /><br />That said, China, even while churning out coal plants faster than Tesla builds cars, is ALSO a world leader in developing green technologies (especially solar). They're aware of the problem and taking steps to address it ... but they don't appear to be willing to slow down their development in that process.<br /><br />Of course, the US had similar smog problems in lots of places, but thanks to a spate of environmental government regulations, we turned the tide. The Chinese are well aware of our history. It's just a matter of when they actually show signs of being willing to dial back the economic expansion a bit.Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32607937823732636892018-05-23T15:09:26.012-07:002018-05-23T15:09:26.012-07:00I think they will get quite both get quite sick if...I think they will get quite both get quite sick if if they don't fix their pollution problem.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30268478282416733262018-05-23T14:59:24.555-07:002018-05-23T14:59:24.555-07:00I am being totally invaded by turtles. 🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢�...I am being totally invaded by turtles. 🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢🐢. They are digging big ml holes in the flower garden out front. One isn't supposed to molest them. Why there? There is lots of room.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-11785368444887481712018-05-23T13:59:25.958-07:002018-05-23T13:59:25.958-07:00I'm not 100% clear on why India is growing (ec...I'm not 100% clear on why India is growing (economically) so much slower than China ... but I suspect it is related to major cultural differences.<br /><br />India has the remnants of the old caste system baked into the cultural consciousness. I suspect it is as hard (or harder) to undo that base than it is to repair the American damage of slavery and 100 years of a similar treatment of blacks specifically. They also have on-going major religious differences influencing the politics. <br /><br />I think China has an easier time of getting the masses onto a single page - based both on culture and on economic model and government system. <br /><br />I do agree with the concept that over time, India should also overtake the US economically. Long term between India and China, I can see the arguments on either side - (beta vs. VHS?) - but my sense is if India ever wins - it'll be a come-from-behind victory - likely long after I'm dead.<br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-74736222374141306832018-05-23T12:34:03.304-07:002018-05-23T12:34:03.304-07:00India seems to still have the lock on the door but...India seems to still have the lock on the door but Walmart just bought into India. Mahindra and Tata are here in the US, more coming. India being an English colony has a leg up with language and they have chased education long before the Chinese opened up to the rest of the world. Thanks Dick Nixon! =:o> LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-15188500164942804302018-05-23T11:52:28.607-07:002018-05-23T11:52:28.607-07:00Also very smart.Also very smart.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-52872386090475494532018-05-23T11:51:59.049-07:002018-05-23T11:51:59.049-07:00I favor India, as I've really liked my Indian ...I favor India, as I've really liked my Indian clients, and they are very attractive people.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-58877410960975798692018-05-23T07:13:34.544-07:002018-05-23T07:13:34.544-07:00Data is only the quality of the input, all data is...Data is only the quality of the input, all data is suspect as to the quality. The art of reading the tea leaves is past history that can only show movement. The worst and most useless IMO is confidence survey. Data is not my gig and never has been, Consumer reports of cars has most of the time been in the ditch. Especially when clone cars varied by wide margins. Data just like cooked news when presented has flaws. Funny how I came to the conclusion that Syria is about pipelines years ago and I finally heard a mentions last week of this. Most everyone has not got a clue as to what is going on and why Russia is so involved. So in the end believe what you see or believe what you think. IMO.<br /><br />Forgot, when China consumer is worn out don't forget India is getting hot now. Then there is the rest of Asia and China's investment in Africa is going well. I mentioned India a very long time ago on CR. Future counts more the data history. IMO. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-4347180487344001022018-05-23T06:23:47.393-07:002018-05-23T06:23:47.393-07:00Why I think the "all the stats are lies"...Why I think the "all the stats are lies" mentality is wrong.<br /><br />1) I worked for National Center for Health Statistics for 20 years. I got to see on the inside how things worked. It's ugly. It's imperfect. But, by and large, it is overwhelmingly run by people doing the best they can to deliver accurate information in a world where doing so is impossible. <br /><br />2) The people in the government who actually gather and publish the data have ZERO incentive to make things up. While the elected leaders may have great political incentive to puff numbers that make them look good and bury numbers that make them look bad - their ability to actually do that is extremely limited, (mostly, they can curtail publishing - but even that is within limited scope.) <br /><br />3) The people who work at the BLS and DOL and CDC, etc., are overwhelmingly career people who have done the same jobs under vastly different administrations - and expect to continue doing so years after the current administration people are long gone. Also, Federal workers have a strong union, which makes it extremely difficult for elected officials to get rid of the people actually doing the work.<br /><br />4) In practically every case where there are PRIVATE efforts to duplicate Federal statistics - the results end up being so similar that they end up confirming the Federal efforts. Gallup employment polling while not identical - ended up producing exactly the same trend lines that BLS data produced. ADP monthly net jobs reports end up showing the same employment trends that the BLS NFP reports show. <br /><br />5) *ALL* of the major Federal statistical report releases include very detailed and complex explanations of methodologies - including limitations, margins or errors, data gathering limitations, etc. Compared to most private press releases (where proprietary methods are sacrosanct and secret), the Feds are phenomenally transparent - which makes CHANGING anything extremely obvious - (and in fact, the Feds report changes to methodology whenever they do).<br /><br />It's not like the government was publishing news of how great the economy was in 1982 or 2008. <br /><br />Even today - with a President screaming at the top of his lungs about the evil "Deep State" - every economic report for the past year has been nothing but sunshine and rainbows. <br /><br />But - mostly - the thing that annoys me most about the data conspiracy theorists is that in order to believe that all of the government data is "lies" - one has to believe the government has managed to keep the lying a complete secret for decades - and nobody ever leaks anything. <br /><br />MY reality? There are LIMITATIONS to data gathering. So, all data gathered is imperfect. So, it's silly to think that any of the numbers are "perfect". They are all "best we can do" efforts. And that is as true for all government reports as it is for data reported by the NAR or Wall Street (who actually have a vastly greater incentive to lie than the government).Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-48632489261505255312018-05-23T04:54:13.628-07:002018-05-23T04:54:13.628-07:00Managed to sign back. 20 hours to civilization.
...Managed to sign back. 20 hours to civilization. <br /><br />If China is the old US c.1950 then the US is England (with better teeth). Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-77767422760884628842018-05-22T22:48:43.231-07:002018-05-22T22:48:43.231-07:00Bush & Obama lied through their teeth virtuall...Bush & Obama lied through their teeth virtually every time they spoke; the only difference is that they did it with that rarified air of presidential dignity. People completely ignore the message when they're all caught up in the messenger and their slick delivery.TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-57733697650255103832018-05-22T15:31:34.091-07:002018-05-22T15:31:34.091-07:00Good Afternoon! Made it back home from the big Shi...Good Afternoon! Made it back home from the big Shity!.<br /><br />China is the US economy post WWII. Time for build out? US has a fake economy now for many and that is it no matter what the data says. News lies? depends on what you want to hear. There is an outlet to fit your taste or you think and make your own decisions on what makes sense. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-47511851378472542062018-05-22T13:25:59.212-07:002018-05-22T13:25:59.212-07:00And it's really fun, talking atcha.And it's really fun, talking atcha. Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-46767505675760199482018-05-22T13:23:36.241-07:002018-05-22T13:23:36.241-07:00I think our govt lies less, because the Chinese li...I think our govt lies less, because the Chinese lie so much, we just don't hear about it. Reporters here do ferret out some awful stuff that happens.<br />Trump is not counted because he alone would escalate the NLR, National Lying Rate.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-66521154478846100362018-05-22T13:18:31.816-07:002018-05-22T13:18:31.816-07:00Restaurants are busy, but not stores or the local ...Restaurants are busy, but not stores or the local mall,due to the internet.<br />They are actually building a big new development near me that the NIMBYS did not succeed in squashing.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-20770454910632135962018-05-22T13:14:37.427-07:002018-05-22T13:14:37.427-07:00We don't need 10 million new cars. I guess th...We don't need 10 million new cars. I guess that is partly your point. And year, I never read the reports sent me by the companies whose stocks I own.<br />I just assume they are mostly lies. I am not qualified to separate the lies from the truth. I read some biz blogs, because I might get info on the really terrible news.<br />Remember when Fannie and Freddie CEOs said everything was peachy keen, and then the hot taken over like, a week or 2 later?<br />I take such statements to mean the opposite, and we should run for the hills.<br />I can see how well Brevard county is doing by the help wanted signs, and dimish6ing of beggars, and old stuff being torn down in favor of new stuff and new space related stuff, and I see the launches. I can't get anybody to do stuff on my house, or even give an estimate. Finally got the roof done after 6 or 9 months of looking for some, and they said they poach other peoples workers.<br />All this and more says this is an incredibly busy area.<br />So when they say unwmployment is 3.6%, I believe them, except it's probably less, not counting the under the table people.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-59176402546033305352018-05-22T11:23:59.267-07:002018-05-22T11:23:59.267-07:00I get that every GDP stat for every country is a k...I get that every GDP stat for every country is a kludge of massive proportions. <br /><br />And judging GDP across different currencies creates a whole other complicating factor. <br /><br />But, in the end, the questions to ask are:<br /><br />1) Is there an overwhelming reason to believe country "A" is lying more (or less) than country "B"? (SAYING you have a big GDP doesn't actually gain you anything. There isn't a Stanley Cup given to the world's #1 GDP).<br /><br />2) Is there an overwhelming reason to believe country "A" has significantly CHANGED how much they are lying about their GDP?<br /><br />Companies lie about their profits all the time (to bolster stock prices or to avoid taxes). But, we generally accept the numbers given until an Enron shows up and reminds us. <br /><br />Yeah, China might be lying about stuff - but we know with certainty how many THOUSANDS of coal burning plants they have built over the past couple of decades - and we got to see the smog problem they created during the Olympics. <br /><br />But, we have proxies we can check because China does so much importing and exporting.<br /><br />How many US auto sales? We're doing 17M a year.<br />How many Chinese auto sales? They hit 17M in 2013 and hit 24.72 million last year. To catch the per capita car sales rate of the US, China needs to get that up to around 67M a year.<br /><br />I'm not saying they'll get there any time soon. They may well max out at *only* 34M car sales per year, (double ours), or 51M (triple ours). Who knows? Different culture. Different priorities. <br /><br />But, once they decided they WANTED to modernize and technologically Westernize, our fate was sealed.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-44495267577196372532018-05-22T10:15:28.866-07:002018-05-22T10:15:28.866-07:00Dawg, I think, said something about electricity us...Dawg, I think, said something about electricity use being a proxy for GDP, and when the Chinese noticed, they suppressed that statistic.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-37372660359689323362018-05-22T10:10:33.142-07:002018-05-22T10:10:33.142-07:00How do we know that GDP for either one is reasonab...How do we know that GDP for either one is reasonably accurate.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-41269425402392534172018-05-22T08:37:45.534-07:002018-05-22T08:37:45.534-07:00Actually, I do need to revise my statement about t...Actually, I do need to revise my statement about the 'peasants'.<br /><br />It has been too long since I checked on Chinese poverty rates (a reasonable proxy for the % of a population that has not been modernized).<br /><br />Back in the '80s, the poverty rate in China was 81%. I thought they had gotten that down to under 50%. Actually, it's down to 12%!?! <br /><br />1980 - 81%<br />1990 - 60%<br />1999 - 39%<br />2010 - 12% (source is World Bank from a WSJ article).<br /><br />US poverty rate has swung from a low of around 11% up to just over 15% since the late '60s. <br /><br />So, they don't have as much "easy" growth ahead of them as I thought. But, their per Capita GDP is way lower, so they are still much further from being maxed out compared to the US.<br /><br />GDP 2008 - 2016 comparison<br /><br />Chinese GDP: 4.6T - 11.2T<br />America GDP: 14.7T - 18.6T<br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.com