tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post8051908393612026409..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Here Come the Real ReductionsRob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-37125447042972831742018-08-24T08:43:52.613-07:002018-08-24T08:43:52.613-07:00Firemane, many thanks for the formula. I too use ...Firemane, many thanks for the formula. I too use a 4% discount to generic ballots. THat's why you've heard me point out the cases where incumbents cannot even poll registration. <br /><br />Good morning, new post with a must read article. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-50849930538788256072018-08-24T08:40:05.059-07:002018-08-24T08:40:05.059-07:00Poo fling gets really flying just before the elect...Poo fling gets really flying just before the election. ��LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-15797096008812828442018-08-24T07:23:33.759-07:002018-08-24T07:23:33.759-07:00It changed Who to stopped. ????It changed Who to stopped. ????Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-66529467168350142072018-08-24T07:22:47.817-07:002018-08-24T07:22:47.817-07:00STOPPED? KNOW WHO, Poo Flinger In Chief.STOPPED? KNOW WHO, Poo Flinger In Chief.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-20230726567084734022018-08-24T06:11:56.259-07:002018-08-24T06:11:56.259-07:00Has the poo flinging ever stoppped?Has the poo flinging ever stoppped?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-58146561082515161722018-08-24T05:40:39.640-07:002018-08-24T05:40:39.640-07:00Good Morning!
Vote early but not before the poo f...Good Morning!<br /><br />Vote early but not before the poo flinging. Don't want to miss the entertainment!LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-27351694650723796392018-08-24T04:23:40.742-07:002018-08-24T04:23:40.742-07:00Good morning.Good morning.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-17380610876998744062018-08-23T18:06:37.375-07:002018-08-23T18:06:37.375-07:00Whatever he can get.Whatever he can get.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-10109241704240571382018-08-23T18:06:03.952-07:002018-08-23T18:06:03.952-07:00Vote early vote often.Vote early vote often.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-92090616940833083052018-08-23T15:13:44.871-07:002018-08-23T15:13:44.871-07:00We will just have to wait and see. I voted early....We will just have to wait and see. I voted early.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-25277224420142155982018-08-23T07:07:37.326-07:002018-08-23T07:07:37.326-07:00Dawg,
Just in case you're interested, my basi...Dawg,<br /><br />Just in case you're interested, my basic methodology is as follows:<br /><br />1) Remove the open seats. (56)<br />2) Determine diff between (D) incumbent vs. (R) incumbent seats (+29 R) after removing the retirements on both sides.<br />3) Adjust for gerrymandering (based on recent elections 51% of vote wins 55% of seats for (R), which is about 16 seats, which is about 4 seats per % of the vote - so, in theory, a 50/50 vote with no incumbents would be R+16 from center point, (217.5 + 16 = 233.5).<br />4) Incumbency edge is about 10%.<br /><br />So - my calculation is basically:<br /><br />Open seats (56) + equal incumbent seats (175*2) = 406 seats where incumbency washes or is not a factor.<br /><br />Subtract 4% from whatever the generic ballot difference:<br /><br />Generic ballot = (D) +7.8, becomes (D) +3.8.<br />I assume each point is worth 4 extra seats.<br />So +3.8 = +15 seats to Dems (for incumbent-neutral seats).<br /><br />203+15 = 218 (D) - 188 (R)<br /><br />Of the 29 incumbent seats, 7.8 generic ballot - 10% incumbent edge = -2.2 or 2.2 positive edge for (R) in these 29 seats. My best estimate is that each 0.8 difference for incumbency edge moves 1 seat from center. So 2.2 is a 3 seat swing from center of the 29 incumbent seats out there. 11(D) - 18(R) - (I tend to round in favor of who has the edge at any step).<br /><br />218 + 11 = 229 (D) - 206 (R).<br /><br />Note: Mostly, I rely on 538 for my raw numbers. I prefer their methodology and explanations to RCP, etc. I have also tweaked my approach as I learn more about the historical, (initially I was under-stating incumbency edge as only 5%). But, for the most part, if the Generic ballot stays about 6, the Dems end up on top. If the generic ballot drops below 6, it's a true tossup to about 5, and below 5, it's pretty much an (R) lock.<br /><br />This method, while not perfect, avoids having to keep track of 435 different "how red-blue" ratings for each district, or dealing with re-districting issues.<br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-86323960881757727722018-08-23T06:02:11.728-07:002018-08-23T06:02:11.728-07:00Good Morning!
Will he go the traditional publishi...Good Morning!<br /><br />Will he go the traditional publishing route or E-Book? <br />LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-64689647522669187032018-08-23T05:55:43.108-07:002018-08-23T05:55:43.108-07:00I wrote my own sci-fi novel in the early '90s,...I wrote my own sci-fi novel in the early '90s, (but it's set in the Star Trek universe, and so became un-publishable, since they stopped accepting new ST writers.<br /><br />I'd be happy to review/critique.<br /><br />When I was writing mine, I was part of a sci-fi / fantasy writer's group, "The Revisionaries", which absolutely helped improve my writing in general and the final product significantly.<br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-19276378708024813312018-08-23T04:51:08.269-07:002018-08-23T04:51:08.269-07:00I will convey your offer. It's written for a ...I will convey your offer. It's written for a general public. He would like your comments. It's 154 pages long. How does he get it to you? He has a pdf file he can send.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-67703931546020921722018-08-22T19:05:25.724-07:002018-08-22T19:05:25.724-07:00We are enjoying a simple life and not trying to sp...We are enjoying a simple life and not trying to spend our money, the kids get to do that but I think they will be wise with it and one is on her way to her own success. :)LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-68578275379567936802018-08-22T18:58:45.984-07:002018-08-22T18:58:45.984-07:00No up close booster landings. I can't tell so...No up close booster landings. I can't tell so many launches He's seen on the order of 350 launches a lot from the rooftop of his building, me, about 100 over the years. Can't buy a landing ticket, because of location. We do go out and watch. Our neighbors don't seem to bother.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-43468362689927008942018-08-22T18:56:30.840-07:002018-08-22T18:56:30.840-07:00I will edit it as long as it isn’t full of science...I will edit it as long as it isn’t full of science stuff and big words with Latin roots. ;)Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30848433762152508262018-08-22T18:25:35.781-07:002018-08-22T18:25:35.781-07:00> "Im trying to spend it. . . In the tryin...> <i>"Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying."</i><br /><br />Is it possible to buy tickets to see a Space-X booster landing up close? Tell me your dear husband would never pay for it for hiself or that he would never forget the experience. <br /><br />Or you could come out to California and see what all the fuss is about. Cinco had a good time and we only had a day. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-6056706102941783302018-08-22T18:22:32.805-07:002018-08-22T18:22:32.805-07:00> That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency e...> <i> That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency edge).</i><br /><br />By my count about half are solidly red or solidly blue regardless. Call it 16 Republican and 14 Democrat districts that never change hands. <br /><br />I agree that the rest have no incumbency edge and also have the mid term against the majority party bias as well as the demographic flow towards the Democrats. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-34355091355931844122018-08-22T18:17:40.291-07:002018-08-22T18:17:40.291-07:00Hyundai unit $20-$25,000. Small bathroom or new f...Hyundai unit $20-$25,000. Small bathroom or new flooring.<br />Toyota unit $30-$40,000 Roof and landscaping.<br />Lexus unit $60-$70,000 full past the studs kitchen or moderate whole house update. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-23859684355952269432018-08-22T15:56:01.271-07:002018-08-22T15:56:01.271-07:00Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying.
The hub ...Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying.<br />The hub was moaning about paying some $$$ to edit his novel. How much, I ask. He specifies an amount with is entirely reasonable. So I say ok, but why do you think it's too expensive? It doesn't come close to to exhausting our resources in any way<br /> But he was somewhat poor as a kid, and we were poorish when first married, so that has sunk in so far. . .<br />On the other hand we are spending on the home repair. How much is a lexus, so I can see use Lexus units?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-50819011617861461932018-08-22T15:11:35.117-07:002018-08-22T15:11:35.117-07:00How the heck do you know that??How the heck do you know that??Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-45705446491443143602018-08-22T11:59:34.590-07:002018-08-22T11:59:34.590-07:00With money comes responsibility. We went from 7 ba...With money comes responsibility. We went from 7 banks to 5 when they raised the FDIC to $250K. Now down to 3 and a credit union. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-41448897725930231432018-08-22T10:48:17.171-07:002018-08-22T10:48:17.171-07:00I feel you, Dawg.
I'm dealing with having too...I feel you, Dawg.<br /><br />I'm dealing with having too many checking accounts, (need to shut down my Mom's, which I'm a co-owner of).<br /><br />Also still waffling with adding an investment account to my current Standard IRA account, not counting my two different 401k accounts, awaiting distribution from my Mom's 401k account.<br /><br />And knowing when I do my taxes next year, if itemizing doesn't exceed the new standard deduction (I expect it'll be really close for me), then going Roth IRA will make more sense, (so I can have two different IRAs to go with my 2 401ks).<br /><br />Of course, I might get picked up full time, which will make me eligible for 401k again ... so I'll get to make the choice of rolling over my existing 401ks into the new one, or moving forward with 3.<br /><br />First world problems indeed. <br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-56655142685125074682018-08-22T10:20:44.248-07:002018-08-22T10:20:44.248-07:00One of my adjustments for incumbency is to adjust ...One of my adjustments for incumbency is to adjust to the 38(R)-18(D) retirement boost the Dems are getting.<br /><br />That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency edge).<br /><br />But, there's a large swath of 'not saying' (~12%) in the generic ballot polling. I expect that to shrink as Election Day draws closer, but that's a pretty big pile of voters that could go any of 3 ways, (left, right or stay home).<br /><br />Honestly, my guess would be (absent other factors - like Mueller revelations) for the generic ballot gap to narrow over the next two months. And, as I noted, there was at least one week where I had the (R) coming out on top (219-216, IIRC). So, by no means do I think it's going to be a Democrat walkover. But, I'm not adjusting for what I think the generic ballot might look like in 2 months.<br /><br />As for head-to-head polling ... I'll leave that to the big guys to parse, because only a small slice of house elections get any genuine polling.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.com