Exurban Nation

Falling Kinife Wrightwood

2012-01-18T13:28:00.000-08:00

1537 Betty St, Wrightwood, CA
Price history such as it is:
01/17/2012 Listed for sale $159,000 -14.1% $222
07/30/2008 Sold $185,000 -19.2% $258
05/12/2008 Price change $229,000 -8.4% $319
02/19/2008 Listed for sale $249,900 186% $349
10/19/2001 Sold $87,527 -- $122

Last month DQNews reported the village sales as averaging $105/sf.
I'm sure the 2008 knife catchers and current bag holders were sure they had stolen this house at $258/sf. The sad part is that the 2 "bedrooms are more like closets and the single bath is actually a 3/4 bath. See below:

Baltic Dry Index

2012-01-18T10:55:00.000-08:00

BDI closed today below 1000. The second chart is Henry Hub Feb 2012 Natural Gas. 1000 what doesn't really matter. After all who even knows what $2.46 natural gas measures? Alright you smart readers know but most don't and don't care. As indicators they are both neigh impossible to manipulate. They both say we are headed into a global recession where production can be expected to decline. I expect the US economy to muddle along at these levels and Europe to get battered. More important, US housing will take that final capitulation price drop necessary to clear markets as the high end suffers more from wealth effects and strong dollar.

NAHB Index Up

2012-01-18T07:22:00.000-08:00

From CR:

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a fourth consecutive month of improvement in January. The component gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 25, which was its highest point since June of 2007. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months also rose three points, to 29 -- its highest point since September 2009. And the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 21, its highest point since June of 2007.

---------

The usual codiciles apply this being an index and remaining deep in depressed territory. Still look at the dates the components were last this "good." every one a disaster time for the home builders. Earlier I commented on HCN that I thought there would be a pick up in construction far more optimistic than consensus. I base that in part on the running out of tax clawbacks the HBs have been living off for years. Like sharks it is swim or suffocate time.

Hoocoodanode

2012-01-17T20:47:00.000-08:00

Many thanks to Ken and kudos for his principled stand. For the duration feel free to post rants here.

Oh the Carnage!

2011-12-25T08:45:00.000-08:00

Got a r/c car to chase teh kittehs!

Christmas 2011

2011-12-24T12:48:00.001-08:00

There's lots to talk about soon. Recent convictions upheld for local real estate fraud. The multi-billion dollar punishment to be meted out next month to teach those uppity Californians not to give the State whatever it demands. New lows in home price indexes next month. But for now enjoy the holiday.

Slightly Inflated Figures

2011-12-21T08:29:00.002-08:00

The NAR today... HEY! The writing is down here not up there.

Any way, the NAR today finally revised heir 2007-present used home sales figures to more closely resemble reality. The reality we've been blogging about for even longer than that.

As usual Calculated Risk has the delicious chart porn. That's "chart porn" stop looking up there. Digging deeper their new methodology is just their old methodology minus mistakes they found. Still useless as a measure.

What we need is a parallel certification process. Certified National Real Estate Professional Association. No political advocacy, no "Suzanne researched this," just a formal process of identifying professionals and an ethics reporting mechanism.

CalPERS = Naughty, Still Gets Presents

2011-12-20T10:34:00.000-08:00

According to CalPERS:

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) today reported a 20.7 percent return on investments in preliminary estimates for the one-year period that ended June 30, 2011.

And the details:

As of June 30, 2011, the market value of CalPERS assets stood at approximately $237.5 billion. A year earlier, the fiscal year ended with $200.5 billion. Investment returns are based on compounded daily earnings over the year, including continuing member contributions and benefit payments, and don’t precisely correspond to one-year changes in market value.

And now for the fun part:
CalPERS’ value is down from its all-time peak of $247.7 billion on June 30, 2007 to $225.4 billion as of Sept. 8, 2011. That’s a decline of $22.3 billion, or 9 percent, in four years and three months. That includes employee contributions and state back-filling.

A tale of two FBs

2011-12-19T08:01:00.000-08:00

Comparable busters. They aren't just for sales anymore. Neighborhoods that would not have imagined rental units in their midst now find them preferable to empty REOs.

Unfortunately the rental market has the same problem with wishing prices as still does the resale market for used houses.
3xxx-Avenida-De-Autlan

* $3,900/month
* Beds:5 Bed Baths:4 Bath House Size:3,770 Sq Ft Lot Size:0.18 Acres

A tad pricey but a safe neighborhood with an excellent school district. And hey, this is supposedly and $800k neighborhood on a golf course. There's one tiny problem:
2924-Avenida-De-Autlan

* $2,500/month
* Beds:4 Bed Baths:5 Bath House Size:3,531 Sq Ft Lot Size:0.19 Acres

Right around the corner. Ouch.

Time to Resume

2011-12-17T10:54:00.000-08:00

The long wait is over.

The next phase of the great xcession is about to begin and someone needs to track it and let people comment.

The last phase started like this. Stutter stops in housing price increases. THe latest Dataquick report:
-----
California November Home Sales
The median price paid for a home last month was $244,000, up 1.7 percent from $240,000 in October, and down 4.3 percent from $255,000 for November a year ago.
-----
The breakdown in Southern California is even worse:
-----
Only San Bernardino saw a yoy uptick. The expensive counties are way down.

Spring '11b

2011-05-16T09:18:00.000-07:00

Spring '11

2011-04-24T14:40:00.000-07:00

Election Predictions

2010-11-01T17:07:00.000-07:00

Prop 19: "Doobie Doobie Due." YES. How can anyone look at the prohibition era and not draw the correct lesson?
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 20: "Revenge of the Gerrymandered." YES. The 2008 Prop omitted Congressional districts this simply adds them.
Prediction win 59/41.
Prop 21: "Fees For Trees." NO. State Parks are everyone's responsibility. An $18 per car tax increase whether we use the parks or not is classic blame shifting for a legislature that connat accept responsibility for their mess. Stealing money from highway travelers used to be called "highway robbery." Now it's called "Proposition 21."
Prediction win 53/47.
Prop 22: "Here let me hold and count that for you." YES. Sacramento has gone far beyond egg management fees. They are stealing dedicated fund flows outright. Local governments are hardly paragons of virtue, but local tax revenues should remain local.
Prediction win 62/38.
Prop 23: "Business Isn't Completely Dead. YES. In 2006, Sacramento's rocket-scientists enacted AB 32, imposing draconian restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions (yes, that's the stuff you exhale). Prop 23 merely holds the Environmental Left to its promise: it suspends AB 32 until unemployment stabilizes at or below its pre-AB 32 level.
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 24: "Kill a Business, Save a Union." NO. $1.7b in hard negotiated business tax policies are about to be end run sponsored by the people who originally didn't negotiate in good faith.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 25: "Single Party Budgets." NO. This changes the 2/3 vote requirement for the state budget to a simple majority. If the 2/3 vote requirement for the budget does not restrain spending this can only make things worse.
Prediction lose 48/52.
Prop 26: "Quacks Like a Duck." YES. Under the infamous Sinclair Paint decision, virtually any tax may be increased by majority vote as long as it is called a "fee," gutting the 2/3 vote requirement in the state constitution to raise taxes. Prop. 26 rescinds Sinclair Paint, restores the Constitution, and calls a tax a tax.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 27: "Petulant Politicians Preying." NO. Want to go back to the days when politicians drew their own district lines, literally choosing their own voters? This will starts us there.
Prediction lose 60/40.

Weeding & Kittehs

2010-10-25T12:01:00.000-07:00

Unbelievable Gap Closure

2010-09-23T17:38:00.000-07:00

Bloomberg:California last sold general-fund backed bonds in June, when it offered about $120 million of debt for veteran’s homes. The state sold $450 million of public-works bonds in May and $5.9 billion of debt in March.

The standoff drove the extra yield investors demand on 10- year California bonds to 119 basis points above AAA rated municipal securities today from as low as 109 basis points in August, Bloomberg Fair Value Index data show. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders will hammer out the details of the agreement when they meet again in Sacramento on Sept. 27th.

Bullshit. This is all about bond rollovers.

Bloat Don't Float

2010-09-22T08:48:00.000-07:00

In the 1950-51 fiscal year, California had 10.6 million residents and the state general fund budget was $587 million. $55.40 per capita. Adjusted for inflation; $442.51 in 2010 dollars.

FY 2010-11 37 million residents and $83 billion. $2,243.24 per capita.

The Recession is Dead, Long Live the Recession

2010-09-20T10:10:00.000-07:00

This is what the NBER says they used to determine the recession ended in June 2009:
Macroeconomic Advisers’ monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)

-----

IMO they saw an inventory replenishment and called it a recovery. Regardless, the graph Rockefeller Institute pdf] at the top tells the real story. it is all about the health of the government sector not the whole economy.

Arrrgh! Talks Among Yerselves

2010-09-19T11:13:00.000-07:00

Almost time to resume regular posting. California is heating up and the Great Double Dip is upon us. Finally some things worth talking about.

Stop me if you've heard this one...

2010-08-09T09:45:00.000-07:00

From Craigslist:
http://ventura.craigslist.org/grd/1888435759.html
Completely working fountain, pump newer and active. Provides quiet water serenity flowing down seashell background.

Lions Heads in Picture are just sitting on Fountain.......They are not attached, and don't go with the fountain. If interested, a deal can be made for the lions heads as well. They are in need of tubing and water source to sput water out their mouths.

The fountain breaks down in to 3 pieces and is very heavy. Would require strentgth.

Divorcing/Moving, need to downsize, and sadly cannot take it with me this time.

------------------

It starts small and poor but it gets bigger and more upscale. The great dispersal begins.

Welcome Hoocoodanoders

2010-04-02T22:07:00.000-07:00

Bill and Ken are switching over. This is but a pale excuse, a shadow of the true Amber as it were but addicts don't complain.

2010 Census

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show Full Episodes

Political Humor

Health Care Reform

Huevos Grande

2010-04-01T15:38:00.000-07:00

Give 'em credit. It takes a big pair to bring this one to market:
271 Myrtle Ave Oxnard, CA 93036

$/Sq. Ft.: $223
Lot Size: 0.69 Acres
Property Type: Detached, Modular/Manufactured
View: Other/See Remarks
Year Built: 2000
Community: El Rio / Nyeland Acres
--------------------------------------

What's the big deal? Location, location, location. Here's the aerial:

Best described as "construction adjacent. Bet they don't mention the freeway is being widened. Not that it matters. Look at the sales history:

Mar 23, 2010 Changed $579,000
Feb 16, 2010 Listed $649,000
Dec 02, 2009 Sold $450,000
Jul 13, 1999 Sold $216,000

Nice flip. Fail.

HELOC I Love You Won't You Sell Me Your Gain?

2010-03-30T12:07:00.000-07:00

Today's Ventura County Star has more than seven pages of NOTS (Notice of Trustee's Sale). The prices at roughly $5 million dollars per page. $35m worth of foreclosures in the paper toady alone. Let's look at some:

1291 Newman St Simi Valley CA 93065
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,740 sq ft
06/16/2005: $495,000
NOTS: $719,416.33

1676 Glider Ct Thousand Oaks CA 91320
4 beds, 3.5 baths, 2,742 sq ft
04/10/2002: $472,000
NOTS: $806,195.30

5083 Dodson St Somis CA 93066
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,362 sq ft
12/23/2002: $393,000
NOTS: $766,737.25

All these last sold at prices much lower than the foreclosure price. You have to wonder how many have seconds, HELOCs, thirds, etc. that aren't even counted having already been written off to zero.

Desert Living Large

2010-03-18T23:19:00.000-07:00

10131 JENNY St, Hesperia, CA 92344

I said living large. I mean that two ways.
BEDS: 6
BATHS: 4
SQ. FT.: 4,246
$/SQ. FT.: $90
LOT SIZE: 1.86 Acres

Too bad the people who bought it for $282k in January want $382k now.
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 18, 2010 Listed $382,500 -- MRMLS #C10029262
Jan 07, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $284,025 -15.5%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2005 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 22.6%/yr Public Records

Good luck with that flippers.

Bad Teacher

2010-03-16T09:34:00.000-07:00

LATimes: CalSTRS' $130-billion investment portfolio lost more than a quarter of its value in the recent recession. The projected shortfall at the state's second-largest public pension fund ballooned to $43 billion by last June.

"There's no doubt about it -- we need to come up with a new financial plan," Ehnes said.

The 97-year-old pension plan must ask the state Legislature, the governor and taxpayers for billions of dollars. Getting that money -- even with an expected massive lobbying campaign and a bruising political battle -- is no sure thing.
----

Must be nice to gamble with OPM.

Half Off!

2010-03-15T20:20:00.000-07:00

I love my neighborhood and it looks like we'll have some new neighbors at 3153 CalleDe Marejada:

Sprawling Single Story Custom Estate Home, 5 bedrooms, spacious office, 6.5 baths, 3 fireplaces, vaulted ceilings, granite, new stainless steel appliances, crown molding, surround sound speakers, etc. Too many features to list! Awesome backyard featuring covered patios, pool & spa, guest house w/ 2 bedrooms, bath & kitchen, flagstone pathways, pool bath, gazebo and outdoor kitchen island ready to add appliances. 4 car garage with paver motorcourt & half-circle drive.

Date Event Price Appreciation
Mar 10, 2010 Listed $1,599,800 -- VCRDS #10003829
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $1,360,000 -17.3%/yr
Jun 02, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $2,600,000 103.8%/yr
Aug 08, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 1.2%/yr
Oct 13, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $295,000
-----
I did the math. The previous owners lost $1000 per day.

CRE Hopium

2010-03-14T19:05:00.000-07:00

Craigslist find:

RESTAURANT FOR SALE
Price: $150,000
This furnished restaurant is ready to go right now with an Outdoor Grill and food service area. Kitchen needs some remodeling work to become fully functional.There are 5,200 Sq. Ft inside and a large outside patio with a fire pit. It overlooks the habor and the boat docks, attacking herds of people to the location. Inside there is a fireplace area to relax in and a beautiful rock waterfall area to sit and enjoy a cocktail and meal.

This restaurant recently closed due to poor management....
... the rent is only $2.24 a Sq. Ft (including the patio Sq. Ft)
----
Eh. What could go wrong?

The Definition of Insanity

2010-03-14T09:38:00.001-07:00

... is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

Does anyone still care except for waiting for the inevitable?

Go Amazon!

2010-03-10T13:32:00.000-08:00

Amazon Dumps Colorado Affliates
[From Inc.]

Mr. Cause meet Mr. Effect. Last week, the governor of Colorado signed a new law levying sales taxes on online retailers.

Amazon has officially balked.

----

The States are desperate for revenue no matter the cost. That never ends well.

California Default Watch II

2010-03-09T15:48:00.000-08:00

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- California Treasurer Bill Lockyer’s bid to sell $2 billion of bonds this week, his first issue since November, may benefit from a falling risk premium after lawmakers at his urging passed a bill to prevent the most- populous U.S. state from running out of cash.
A special session of the Legislature approved measures to chip away at a $20 billion budget deficit and give state officials powers to put off as much as $5 billion in spending. The delays are intended to sidestep cash shortfalls like those last year that forced the state to issue IOUs to pay bills and triggered cuts to its credit rating.
-----

And an excellent blogger I haven't mentioned in a long time, Of Two Minds:

Why California Is Doomed (March 9, 2010)

California is doomed for two simple but profound reasons: the cost structure is too high for most businesses to survive, and a boom-dependent economy.

The dysfunctions crippling California would easily fill a volume: a dysfunctional Legislature that has been gerrymandered to protect virtually every seat; a dysfunctional proposition system which enables special interests to craft Protected Fiefdoms via the ballot box; recalcitrant public unions who don't see anything wrong with public servants getting 90% of top-pay in pensions while still earning big bucks as "contract employees," an enormous population of undocumented workers who pay only sales taxes, and whose employers pay no payroll taxes, either-- and that just scratches the surface.
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Thieving Rat B@st@rds

2010-03-05T15:30:00.000-08:00

Stealing. There's no other word for it. No matter how they torture the language in the end the legislature has taken money out of the Stat highway Trust Fund and used it to cover general fund debt payments. It gets a little complex and involves weird concepts like different kinds of money but follow me here.

From Businessweek:
The swap allows some accounting maneuvers that would funnel more money into the state's general fund, where the deficit exists.

The tax exchange is estimated to generate $1.1 billion for the general fund while continuing to provide close to the current level of funding for public transit and repairs to highways and streets.

Californians would see no difference in prices at the pump.

Bullshit. The Trust Fund carries a close to $9 billion balance. The State won't spend it because as long as it sits there it helps balance the bookson paper. What about on the streets? KTLA:

Huge Pothole Flattens Tires On 101 Freeway
KTLA News7:17 AM PST, March 1, 2010

The 101 south through downtown was closed by a massive pothole. (February 28, 2010)

LOS ANGELES - Late last year, a national transportation research group stated that Los Angeles had the worst roads in the nation.

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They robbed the Trust fund and we pay twice.

Hope Springs Eternal

2010-03-04T17:09:00.000-08:00

Oxnard
Feb 06, 2010 Listed $559,900 -- VCRDS #10002095
Dec 10, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 14.5%/yr
May 29, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 -31.4%/yr
Oct 08, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 5.7%/yr
Nov 16, 1993 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 --

I imagine the 2003 price was a divorce split.

2004-2009 Total assessed value: = $541,708 = $552,542 = $563,592 = $574,863 = $586,359 = $495,000

We'll watch this flip closely. Here are the neighboring zillow comps:

GRM 13.8

2010-02-25T07:10:00.001-08:00

GRM is gross rent multiplier. That means annual rent as a ratio to purchase price.

$2,200,000. That's $220,000 per apartment. Now, I prefer the other GRM, monthly, not annually. Multiply by 12 is all. That's 165. In other words in this market 40% overpriced for a recovery. 60% overpriced for rent deflation expectations. They claim $ $13,000/mo in rent receipts. Taxes would eat the first $2000 every month. Ouch. Debt service also says 40% overpriced on a cash flow basis.

Hope springs eternal.

Craigslist Laugh of the Day

2010-02-24T18:22:00.000-08:00

2008 TOYOTA PRIUS, NO MONEY DOWN, TAKE OVER MY PAYMENTS - $1 (Thousand Oaks)
Date: 2010-02-24, 10:57AM PST

I have a 2008 Toyota Prius that is the top of the line version, loaded with leather seats, nav, premium Bose 6 disc CD stereo/speaker system.
It is white, and is in pristine condition.
Has 21,400 miles currently.
My wife and I are having our 2nd baby soon, and the Prius is just too small for us now, and we don't drive enough to get the savings on the gas.
So we want to have someone take over the loan and payments on the car.
This is a great deal for someone who doesn't want to put a bunch of money down, and get a great car with low mileage.
The car has always been serviced at Toyota of Thousand Oaks, where it was purchased, and there have been no problems.
It was just serviced and they did check the gas pedal just in case last week.
Clean title and no accidents, of course.
Payments are $607.11 per month including tax, and the loan has 53 months left.
----

$607.11 x 53 = $32,176.83

Brand new '10 Prius? 3-12 thousand dollars cheaper. Pathetic.

The End of a Perfect Day II

2010-02-24T11:06:00.001-08:00

Thomas kinkade painting or generator for trade..... (fillmore)

Date: 2010-02-24, 10:01AM PST
Reply to: sale-xgbfk-1615859440@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

Ive got a thomas kinkade painting END OF A PERFECT DAY II comes with certificate of authenticity and a Briggs and Stratton xl4000 generator used twice like new for trade need my front and back yards done.... (sod, lil plants ect) your gonna need to haull out levvel the dirt and plant the sod. Let me know what you got in mind lets talk..............

Location: fillmore
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
----

Any takers? The great unwinding continues. Imagine this one. A frou-frou painting for hard labor or a solid pice of hardware for hard labor. "Stuff" is so mis-allocated. It ain't over.

California Debt Watch Resumed

2010-02-22T08:09:00.000-08:00

WSJ:

NEW YORK—California, owner of the worst credit ranking among U.S. states, plans to tap bond markets for $4 billion in March to finance infrastructure improvements, a spokesman for State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said.

The sales-a pair spaced several weeks apart—would come at a time that the Golden State's budget is bleeding about $20 billion in red ink through fiscal 2011 and when some portfolio managers have cautioned that investments in California debt are turning riskier.

The state, however, is counting on a new cash-management tool that it expects to gain legislative approval Monday to put a floor under its short-term needs and to improve both market and investor confidence in the finances of the world's eighth-largest economy.

"We need a credible solution to our cash-flow situation," and this legislation will help Controller John Chiang and the Department of Finance to defer general-fund payments for specific programs and for specific time periods, if needed, in order to maintain an adequate cash cushion, Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for Mr. Lockyer, said in a telephone interview Sunday.

The program would remain in place for the balance of this fiscal year, ending June 30, and through the next fiscal year, giving the financial officials more flexibility by not having to seek legislative approval each time.
...
"California is done with financing its deficits with the issuance of bonds," Mr. Dresslar stated Sunday.

Thus endeth the nobel experiment in democracy. not with revolution but with a "cash-management tool."

You Bet Your Sweet BP

2010-02-21T11:39:00.000-08:00

FoxNews:

ConocoPhillips, BP America and Caterpillar pulled out of a leading alliance of businesses and environmental groups pushing for climate change legislation on Tuesday, citing complaints that the bills under consideration are unfair to American industry.

The sudden pullout of three corporate giants from a leading alliance of businesses and environmental groups could be the death knell for climate change legislation languishing on Capitol Hill.
-----

Funny, the MSM and AGW crowd made a much bigger thing about this when they joined.

Out Behind the Barn

2010-02-19T09:39:00.000-08:00

94 acres near St. Thomas Aquinas College. 4425 Ojai Rd, Santa Paula.

This beautifully rugged property is located about 2 miles north of downtown Santa Paula on Hwy. 150 and is less than a mile south of Steckle Park. Ojai would only be about another 5 miles. There is enough level to rolling area for a small farming operation. Horses and other livestock would be a natural here. Enjoy the Little Red Barn. Use it for storage or a place for you and your family and friends to meet. There are roads to take you through the property and to the tops of the hills to enjoy nature and the panoramic views, including the ocean, Topa Topa and city lights. There is abundant wildlife, which includes: deer, quail, dove, rabbits, etc. Part of the property is on the east side of Highway 150 and actually fronts on Santa Paula Creek. Only minutes to town and about one and a quarter hours to L.A. What a great place for a weekend getaway!!!

Am I forgetting anything? Oh yes. The barn:

Hittin' the ATM

2010-02-19T08:45:00.001-08:00

Nice place. Been owned so long that zillow has no sales history. The tax data support this. They are paying a whopping $1492 per year in property taxes. That puts the purchase most likely in the mid 1980s for less than $100,000. Sweet deal eh? Slapping down a $600 mortgage and $80-$120 taxes for 25 years and looking at a balance of ~$25,000. And in 5 years even that car payment sized mortgage goes away. Right? Wrong. Opening bid at auction tomorrow (Feb 19th, 2010): $675,000.
Realtytrac listing.
Zillow for what it's worth(less).

What in the world were these people thinking?

Good Fog - Bad Fog

2010-02-17T12:33:00.000-08:00

Apparently the California Coastal Redwoods are in danger from a lack of fog caused by... you guessed it; global warming.

At the same time earlier today a jet owned by a principal of Tesla Motors crashed killing three taking off from Palo Alto in heavy... you guessed it; fog.

Coastal Fog: WUWT and UCSB

Tesla Exec crash: Reuters and Auto Spies

Wagons! East!

2010-02-16T09:30:00.000-08:00

California braces for repeat of last fiscal crisis

The emergency budget session, called by Schwarzenegger, will not tackle the entire $20 billion deficit that is projected over the next year and a half. It will target the $6 billion shortfall in the current year, leaving longer-term funding for core services such as public schools, colleges and health services in a state of uncertainty.
...
Democrats are searching for ways to sidestep the rule that requires a two-thirds vote of the Legislature for tax increases and to pass state budgets.

Repeat. This is not a revenue problem, this is a spending problem and no amount of taxing authority will fix it. If the Democrats succeed in obviating the 2/3rds requirement the exodus of business and upper income people will be breathtaking.

The Economist: "They were wrong."

2010-02-14T08:42:00.000-08:00

Sunday morning education.

And an Economist video.

A Little Off The Top

2010-02-12T13:58:00.000-08:00

Why rent when you can buy? Then again why not buy and rent it out? Here's a tri-level town home in the new Riverpark complex. Let's run the numbers. Actually that's old hat. Let's run just one number; carrying cost ex-mortgage.

614 Green River St, Oxnard, CA 93036
3/ 2.5/1,519/$188
YEAR BUILT: 2008 MLS#: 90013806

Great tri level condo available in the gorgeous RiverPark development. The home features granite counter tops with Stainless Steel Appliances. The home will include the washer, dryer, softwater system, alarm and refrigerator. The home includes a third level with a huge room and walk in closet. Walking distance to parks and schools.

Now the important numbers:
Homeowners Association Dues: $211
Tax (2008) $5,384

Got that? $660/mo for the privilege of ownership.
You might get $1300/mo renting this out. That leaves $640 for debt service. That sets the value at $143,000. Asking price? $285,900. It's almost as if they were working the numbers backwards except multiplying by 2.

Economics 101

2010-02-12T09:52:00.000-08:00

Blatantly stolen from "Eric" at Calculated Risk and duly integrated into the Misean Institute's curriculum.

All the economic you'll ever need to know.
21 Economic Models Explained
(I like the Royal Bank of Scotland Venture Capitalism best.)
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows.
You give one to your neighbor.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and gives you some milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and sells you some milk.
NAZISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows.
The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk
away.
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND VENTURE CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of
credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute debt/equity
swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back,
with a tax exemption for five cows.
The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a
Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells
the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.
The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one
more. You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States, leaving
you with nine cows.
No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want
three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and
produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called ?Cowkimon? and market it
world-wide.
A GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years, eat once a month, and milk
themselves.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You count them and learn you have five cows.
You count them again and learn you have 42 cows. You count them again and
learn you have 2 cows.
You stop counting cows and open another bottle of vodka.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you.
You charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity.
You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows.
You tell them that you have none.
No-one believes you, so they bomb the crap out of you and invade your
country.
You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Business seems pretty good.
You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows.
The one on the left looks very attractive.

Young Guns vs. the Vested Interests

2010-02-11T08:57:00.000-08:00

Capitol Weekly has a wide ranging discussion of California's long term obligations. As I've long suggested the tragedy of split employment has been raised:
“But I have come to the conclusion it’s a very strong likelihood I would be looking out for future employees by negotiating a second-tier retirement system,” he said. “The last thing we want to do is leave it to the initiative process.”

Creating a second tier of lower benefits for new hires is one way to lower pension costs. But significant savings can take decades, until employees with the lower benefits begin to retire.

Pensions promised current employees and retirees are regarded as vested rights, protected by contract law, that cannot be reduced without providing something of equal value.

File this one under crueler harder society as well.

Safe For Now

2010-02-10T08:38:00.000-08:00

Live cam: http://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm

No man's life, liberty, or property are safe while the congress is in session. - Clemens

Nice, snow. Stay on the mountains and on the slopes.

Put Down Your Beverage

2010-02-05T13:15:00.000-08:00

I will not be responsible for damaged keyboards.

This gem from nearby Thousand Oaks. Get a load of the description.

Ready for another amazing asset? Well my fellow hardworking agents and brokers this could be the one! Hurry today because we all know there is no inventory and this sweet little nutter butter is priced so well - so don't procrastinate on this jewel - make an offer quick! Those buyers who have been sitting on that unsturdy fence - now is that time to jump in the market - so put the pen to the paper and get r done! This single story home is bursting with many features like a open and neutral interior with clean carpet and tiled entry and baths, updated kitchen, gas stove top, cozy fireplace in the living room, covered patio, 2 car direct access garage, and a sparkling pool with some views from the huge rear yard of the distant mountains. This home will be on the market for a limited time only - you could be the lucky winner - just make us the best offer in which the Seller can't refuse!

And this sweetheart? $/SQ. FT.: $355
Get a load of the curb appeal:

The history:
Jan 09, 2010 Relisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 25, 2009 Delisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 19, 2009 Listed $450,000 -- VCRDS #90020149
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $403,055 -6.7%/yr Public Records
Jun 18, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 32.3%/yr Public Records
Apr 03, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 8.3%/yr Public Records
Aug 06, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $299,000 11.5%/yr Public Records
Dec 02, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 3.7%/yr Public Records
Oct 24, 1991 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 -- Public Records

Got that? Sad. But then I'm not a "fellow hard working agent." What do I know?

886 Camino La Maida
Thousand Oaks, CA 91360

Update:
My new mailbox since the one in the picture is o ugly:

Rally Caps Off

2010-02-04T12:55:00.001-08:00

Will we see it again this year?

Wendell Cox Takes (on) the Train

2010-02-01T14:08:00.000-08:00

Extended excerpt because WSJ pulls articles too fast:

The administration is giving California $2.25 billion for trains that are expected to reach 220 miles per hour between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The cost of building this rail line is now estimated by the California High Speed Rail Authority to be more than $40 billion and could be $60 billion or more.

Even after adjusting for inflation, the projected cost of the system has increased by half over the original cost in the past decade. Ridership projections have also fluctuated wildly, from as low as 32 million annually to nearly 100 million; now the rail authority estimates the train will carry 41 million passengers each year.

High-speed rail does little to unsnarl traffic jams because most highway congestion is within urban areas, not between them. It also has negligible impact on airport congestion. The world's strongest high-speed rail market, Tokyo to Osaka, is also one of the world's largest airline markets. Even with high-speed rail, there is still frequent air-shuttle service between Paris and Marseille.

Environmental claims are misleading. Using California High Speed Rail Authority's data, Joe Vranich and I estimated that the California system would reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, at a cost of $2,000 per ton. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that we should be able to meet its greenhouse gas targets by spending $50 or less per ton.

California Default Watch

2010-02-01T10:40:00.000-08:00

The grind continues. Never mind the headlines and reports of recovering consumption. Here's the truth:

Betty T. Yee, Chairwoman of the Board of Equalization [pdf] (BOE), today released California gasoline and diesel consumption figures for October 2009. The demand for gasoline decreased 0.4 percent and diesel declined 11.1 percent compared to the same month last year.
“Following a long period of much volatility in gas prices and consumption, both were fairly stable last fall,” said Chairwoman Yee. “However, diesel consumption continued to decline, reflecting continued weakness in economic activity.”
Through October 2009 California gasoline consumption had declined 1.3 percent compared to January through October of 2008.

---
This is why the State is facing a $21b deficit. Now observe the follow on effects:

LA County officials consider spending freeze
Jan. 26, 2010 | KPCC Wire Services | KPCC

Los Angeles County officials said today they may face a $600 million deficit next year and are considering a non-emergency spending freeze on fixed assets, services and supplies.

The Board of Supervisors gave staffers 14 days to develop recommendations for implementing the freeze and ensure that salary savings from the hiring freeze are not spent on other items.

"Every computer and every desk we hold off on buying today means the impact will be less tomorrow,'' said Supervisor Don Knabe, who proposed the freeze to the board.

----
Even churches:

Economics are forcing Southern California's Crystal Cathedral to suspend its "Glory of Easter" pageant, sell property and lay off workers, officials say.

A 27 percent decline in revenue in 2009 has prompted the megachurch founded by Robert H. Schuller to cut its televangelist "Hour of Power" programs as part of a series of "tough decisions" made by the cathedral's International Board of Trustees, The Orange County Register reported Sunday.

Sheila Schuller Coleman, who was appointed leader of the Crystal Cathedral by her father, Robert Schuller, said the economic crisis forced this year's suspension of the Easter pageant, which features angels suspended on wires and a parade of animals, but the extravaganza would be back by 2011 or 2012.

The church also plans to shut down its 20-acre retreat in Rancho Capistrano, leaving 50 employees out of work.

Near Owens

2010-01-31T17:27:00.000-08:00

Shrinking Society

2010-01-30T10:59:00.000-08:00

It is no secret that economic and social changes are driving us to a harder more cynical place. Here we have another landmark; the Pasadena Playhouse closing its doors.

PASADENA - Faced with mounting bills and more than $1.5 million in debt, the Pasadena Playhouse will close its doors Feb. 7.

The playhouse, which was founded in 1917, will close after the final performance of its current production, "Camelot."

Maybe we can convert it to a prison.

Let It Snow

2010-01-30T09:11:00.001-08:00

Fresh tracks!

Min-iPad

2010-01-28T09:52:00.000-08:00

Humor works best when there's a grain of truth inside:

No camera? no multitasking? No flash support? I wanted this:

And got this instead:

iPad. Mrs. Dawg's first comment was "Cripes, didn't they have any women involved in naming that thing? Will the upgraded model be called MaxiPad?"

Predictions: When shipped 32/64/128Gb for the same prices. Massive educational ties-ins will be announced soon. There will be a storage option.

And let's face it, no camera, no storage port equals no teen market.

Washington Monument Part 1

2010-01-26T18:00:00.000-08:00

A "Washington Monument Play" is when government punishes the populace by denying a popular service in order to extort money for unpopular costs. We start this ongoing series with the great State of Arizona

Arizona decides to close most state parks
Facing a multibillion-dollar shortfall, the state will shut 13 parks by June, including the Tombstone Courthouse and Yuma Territorial Prison. Several had already been closed.

January 16, 2010|By Nicole Santa Cruz
Wrestling with a multibillion-dollar budget deficit, Arizona decided Friday to close nearly all of its state parks, including the famed Tombstone Courthouse and Yuma Territorial Prison.
The State Parks Board unanimously voted to close 13 parks by June 3. Eight others had already been closed, and the decision would leave nine open -- but only if the board can raise $3 million this year.
The action represents the largest closure of state parks in the nation, although several other states are considering similar moves.
"It's a dark day for the Arizona state parks system," said Renee Bahl, the system's executive director.
"We have 65,000 acres around the state and the majority of them are closing."
The Arizona parks receive about 2.3 million visitors per year who bring about $266 million into the state, Bahl said.

Got that math? $3m is "saved" to help close a multi-billion dollar deficit. That $3m apparently generates 80x in economic ripples. There's no way this is about saving money.

The Little Choo-Choo That Couldn't

2010-01-26T11:57:00.000-08:00

California High Speed Rail died recently and no one noticed. The CAHSR authority finally made the first of a long series of confessions that the service will be less and price higher than was sold to the voters 18 months ago in a narrow bond approval vote.

The new plan calls for a one-way charge of $105, about 83 percent of the $125 the rail authority predicts airfares will run in 2035. That near-doubling of prospective fares from the 2008 $55 would reduce expected ridership by almost one-third.

Prices up, ridership down. Quelle surprise.

But don't be discouraged. There's a new blog out there where CAHSR is not only alive but so perfect only apostates can dare deny its beauty: CAHSRblog.com

If it weren't my money the whole debacle would be sad. As it is it is a travesty.

The updated cost estimate for the San Francisco‐to‐Anaheim initial high‐speed rail system is $42.6 billion [pdf file] in year‐of‐expenditure dollars.

State funding: $9 billion from Proposition 1A (used to leverage additional investment)
Federal funding: $17‐19 billion (ARRA, other federal loan programs, transportation appropriations)
Local funding: $4‐5 billion (in right‐of‐way, parking fees, transit‐oriented developments, contributions)
Private funding: $10‐12 billion (public‐private partnerships, vendor financing, availability payments, etc.)
Total: $45 billion

Not. Fed funding will never exceed the $9b State contribution and private funding to date has been zero. There's no reason for private interests to fund HSR. It has no commercial value. And the "local funding" is just a joke. Bakersfield is not going to invoke Eminient Domain to cover CAHSRs accounting ass.

Back East

2010-01-09T17:37:00.001-08:00

A little family business. Nothing serious. Expect to be busy. I'll check in if I can. And no, I don't get to go to the Patriots game.

Update: I'm back. My recalcitrant little brother needed to see 5 feet of scars in order to start taking care of himself and availing himself of VA benefits. Back to your regularly scheduled snark.

La Loma Redux

2010-01-06T15:06:00.000-08:00

It's back. La Loma is back on the market.

You'd never know this was once asking for a million.

2010 Movie Remakes

2010-01-02T15:50:00.000-08:00

Underwaterworld
The Unpayables
War of the Wards
0-mega man
Debt-raiser
Debt-raiser
Blackdebt Down
Chinamen in Black
Dependence Day
Debt, followed by Children of Debt
3000 Miles to Poorland
Thirteen Days to Bankruptcy
For Love of the
Eviction Message in a Bottle
The Postman Doesn't Stop Here Anymore
Big Treasury Trouble in Little China
The Checkbook
Massive Asset-Slashed Haircut: M.A.S.H.
Pretty WaMu, the unlikely romance of a prostitute and a corporate raider.
Tin Cup and Pencils
Wyatt Earp Real Estate Investment Trust
A Perfect World for Goldman
The Bodyguard to Benny
True Romance
The Bodyguard to Benny
The Bootyguard starring Shelia Bair
True Romance
Romancing The Sachs
Massive Asset-Slashed Haircut: M.A.S.H. I especially liked Hotlips WaMulihan in the scene where she does Major Burnstheinvestors.
Romancing the Blackstone
Stanford & Son
A Default Grows in Harlem.
The Stanfords Skull and Bonus
Three Loans for Sister Sarah
Last House Left
The Legend of Beggar Vance
Bend It Like Bernanke
Ben & Timmay's Excellent Misadventure
Buffy The Squid Slayer
buffet fraud
Cheaper by The Dozen Trillion
Close Encounters of The Third Tranche
Citizen Pain - who can forget that classic tale?
Dirty Benny
Buffy The Squid Slayer
The Money Pit Dirty, Rotten Scoundrels Bonfires of the Vainities
Easy Writers
Nightstand Cowboy
Close Encounters of The Third Tranche Final DebtstaNation
The International (no title change necessary!)
Taken
Gone With The Win
2010: The Year We Break Contract
When Benny met Timmy?
Home: A Loan
Routes
A Debtors' Line
The Dark Pool
The Debt Pool
Debt Men Don't Wear Plaid
for pav: Debt Poets Society
debtsturbia
Hock Hollywood
Eight Squid Heads in a Duffle Bag
Eternal Obligation of the Spotless FICO
Management on Fire, starring Denzel Washington DC
19 Men on a Debtman's Chest, yo ho ho
Deja Vu
He Knows You Need A Loan
Live Free or Die Pennyless
The Perfect Storm (no changes necessary) Pirates of the Carribean (no changes necessary) Flatliners (no changes necessary)
Apocalypse Now
A-liens
The Incredible Hulk - a tale of seethrough megatowers
Apocalypse on Credit - The Sequel
Wallets Wide Shut
Fantasia 2010
Ferris Beuller's Pay Off
Forrest Pump and Dump
Four Mortgages and a Jubilee
Funds and Fancy Free
Glodzilla
A-liens
Wiped Out Men Can't Jump Snatch
My Big Fat Greek Riot
The Day the Earth Paid Bills
Throw in two others and you'd have The Magnificent Seven
Flight Club
Charlotte's Web (tale of a spider and a )
Schiller's List St. Elmo's FIRE The Puppets Take Manhattan
The F/C Files
Con-Heir
Throw in two others and you have The Malignant Seven
Office Space
CREmatorium
The Good, The Bad, & The Fugly?
Squirrel Interupted
Glods and Monsters
The Glods Must be Crazy
Good Bills Hunting
Groundhog Decade
All Go To Heaven The Whetherman Miss MBS March The Great White Hype
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Retail Bones!
Logan's Loan Run
The Day the Loans Stood Still
M.B.S.
Saving Private Buying
E for Endebtedness Dial M For More Flash-Trading Gordon Clash of the Banking Titans The Hangover
The Day the Loans Stood Still
Deliverance
Bando Brothers
Land of the Lost Wages
Fannie
Nightmare on K Street
reserved hogs
Dead Bank Walking
The Loan King Dead Beat Plan of the Caved Bair Masters of the Universe (no change needed) Minority Deport Sachs and the Citi
District 8 Crash The Bad News Bears
Weekend at Bennies
Growing Pains
Weakened @ Bennie's
Romancing The Sachs
The Last Par Fighter
CDS: Fatal Affliction
Escape from Needless Markup The Revenge of the Mannequins.
Expatriate Games Fatal Redaction
up in the smoke
The Gain Mutiny
Throw MBS from the Train
A bridge to....a bridge
A Bridgeloan Too Far
To HELOC & Back
Bond, FIRE and Vanities
FIREstopper
Loan Terminator
(old TV show) The Loan Arranger
The Bridge Loan over the River Side
Bridges of Mason Country Crash of the Titans Axe-Men Violence of the Lambs
The Chuck Prince Diaries
National Displeasure
No bridge to far
VATman
2010: A Treasury Oddity
Run Silent, Run Deep Losses
bANK fAILURE (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:07 pm
The China Sin-Drone Yu Gots Males Arabian Blights
Meet Joe Sixpack
The Unshining ...starring Jack Nicholson as Alan Greenspend.
Atlantic Citi
Devil wears goodwill
The Loan Bug
Andduetome Strain
The Longest Yarn
Star Whores: The Empire Likes Crack Star Whores: Reburn of the Junkie
Cashless In Seattle
Merry Pop Pins
Star Whores: The Phantom Ceiling
The Clowns of Music
and of course: Star Whores: The Revenge of the Squid
Czardoughs
Fast Times at 30 Broad
Did You Hear About The Benjamins?
Obama: A Nude Hope?
Ace Ventura, FED Detective
GS:Meet the Fuckers
Raiders of the Last Park
Star Whores:Return of the Tarp
Gunfight at the GS Corral
All Quiet On The Eastern Front
Cool hand Mack
Loan Misérables
The Rapes of Graft
Promotion's Eleven
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:24 pm
Citi Slackers Orifice Space
Whore A Few Dollars More Ben Hurt
American Flipstory Essex
Blankfein's Monster
ET(gs): the evaded tax
Pigmen on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - by Almostdover
Hex on the Citi
The Loan and I
Transformers:Revenge of the Realwhores
Planet of the Realtors
West Slide Story
The Lord of the FED:The Return of ...nope, returns are negative
Mr. Smith Goes to Bankruptcy Court
Mutiny of the Bounty
The Passion of the
One-Eyed Jack-a-Lopes -staring Karl Maldin as Bad-Loanworth
Dial M for Mortgage
Finding Nemo!!!!
Alan and the FedMonks: The Squeakquel
'Invasion of the Money Snatchers'
The Lying King: the mozillo story
To Live and Die in the Beltway.
The Write Stuff
The Lord of the Blings: The Empty Towers
Pirates of Lower Manhattan; At Squid Island
A Dutiful Mind The Lying Game Twelve Flunkies
HouseFlipper's New Adventures 2010: The Year we broke the contract
Bye Bye Money
Rebel Without a Clause
You Can't Take It With You Unless You're Goldman
Chairman Dolittle
How to Marry a Trillionaire
The Three Faces of Greed
Bonus Season: The First Sense
The Bankshank Redemption
Sherlock Homes and the Case of the Missing Payments
Comrade Rally Monkey (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:35 pm
The Handover: nth to default
It's Californicated
Village of the Damned Bankers The Absent Minded Economics Professor
The Loan Vanishes
Voyage to the Bottom of the Recovery
Governator 3: Eviction Day
Kashkari:I am Legend
Panic in the Year 2010
Forget Perris
Hush...Hush, Sweet Sheila
Re-cast away
The Crawling Invisible Hand
The warren ultimatum
The Nutty Economics Professor
The Three Stooges Meet Geithner
How Green Was My Wallet
Cents and Cents-ability -the making of Lowered Expectations
Caper-Corn Won -Forex food fights staring transgendered asians, hilarity ensues
The Mishpocha Man
No Retirement for Old Men
No Country for Young Men
Fiat: Cultural leanings of a society bent on debt servitude for make glorius benefit of nation of Richistan
Star Tranche: First Contract
Who Framed Robert Reich?
Soylent Green Shoots
Oh man is dad ever gonna be pissed when he comes back from his hike and sees the mess we left.
To Be or Not To Be Homeless
The Last Wagon Out of IE
Father's Little Dividend Deferred
The Margin Call of the Wild
The Seethrough Menagerie
Elizabeth Warren: 2 smart, 2 curious I haven't laughed this hard in quite a long time. Suicide hotline without the humor, my skinny white ass.
Altar'd Statisticians Scammers
Krugman v. Krugman
Honey I shrunk the 401K!
*Battering Rams Not Included
Dr. Goldbug and the Bikini Machine
The Slime People That title didn't need any work.
Anna and the King of Liar Loans
HELOC Down There
Doctor No Loan
The Net Worth Feestack Silence of the HAMPs
For Whom the Bank Tolls
Pay It Never
[alt: Pay It Forever]
[alt alt: Pain It Forwardization]
Around the Drain in Eighty Days
bANK fAILURE (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 1/2/2010 - 1:59 pm
SHAME !! -a charming caste of up and coming are delightful in this musical romp through the interworkings of revolving doors. The smoke and mirrors budget is equalled only by the great wall Chindia's big shitpile.
The Last American Heloc
The Birth of a Nation of Debtors
A Farewell to ARMs
The Phantom of the Stock Market
20,000 Loans Under the Sea
The Good, the Bad, and the Regulators
Citizen Thain
Curse of the Voodoo Economics
Honey, I sold the kids
Evictus
All Squids go to heaven

It Can't Get Any Worse

2009-12-31T20:22:00.000-08:00

Right?

Riverpark Bust

2009-12-31T13:38:00.000-08:00

Wow, who could have predicted?

At the beginning of this decade, the developers of RiverPark in Oxnard looked at the vacant land, the asphalt plant and the run-down neighborhoods along the Santa Clara River and bet the area could almost be its own little new-suburban city. RiverPark would be a place where the people of 2010 would walk their kids to school, stroll through the neighborhood park, stop to buy organic produce from Whole Foods Market, and head home to chop it on their new granite countertops.
...

Today, RiverPark has about 800 occupied homes, rather than the 2,800 the plans call for at build-out. The shopping center sits vacant and fenced-off, construction equipment the only thing parked in its vast lots. The planned opening keeps getting pushed back, with “late 2010” the latest word from the developer, Shea Properties.

Be sure to read the comments for the different perspectives. Outsiders doing the Nelson Muntz "Hah hah!" The stuccos who lament their trusting the city. The denialists who can't even see reality. Past Riverpork posts here.

The thing that will kill the project will ultimately all come down to a failure of government. Yes, built in a flood plain. Yes, too dense. Yes, taxes too high regardless of home prices. All direct consequences of incompetent leadership at the municipal level. It's too late for Riverpark. Will the city wake up in time to save themselves from Wagon Wheel?

And the hits will keep coming. 800 occupied residences are not enough to service the HOA or Mello-Roos debts encumbered on their behalf. I wonder how many understand they are joint and several liable for the entire amount and not just the pro rata share currently being assessed? If you think the current 2.6% plus municipal burden is excessive, just wait. Riverpark will be a text book study for generations to come.

Jingle Bells

2009-12-25T07:08:00.000-08:00

Clearly I've been stingy. Amends below:

Hide the Decline

2009-12-15T12:37:00.000-08:00

Hat tip to Cobradriver for this unbelievable practice revealed:

This two-bedroom house at 1857 Prospect St. in Sarasota, bought for $453,900 in 2007, was just resold for $523,900. But the deal was a deed in lieu of foreclosure and no money changed hands. So why would a bank pay nearly $3,700 in stamp taxes?

The Herald Tribune has the story:

C&M had defaulted on a $408,500 mortgage, and Bank of Commerce was claiming its collateral. No money actually changed hands, according to Charles Murphy, the bank's chief executive.

Then why did the bank bother paying nearly $3,700 in documentary stamp taxes to make it look like the property had been sold for $523,900?
...
"The loan balance is the main consideration," Dart said. "That and any unpaid interest."

--------------------
Any questions?

Bad Tentacles

2009-12-13T17:28:00.000-08:00

Jim the Reltor has been hacked. It appears to be a breach at the server at this time so there's not a lot that can be done. If anyone has a suggestion or just a comment of support feel free to leave a reply.

California Default Watch 2

2009-12-10T12:23:00.000-08:00

Controller Releases November 2009 Cash Report

PR09:031
12/10/2009
Contact: Jacob Roper
916-445-2636

SACRAMENTO – State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California’s cash balance, receipts and disbursements in November. The month’s receipts were relatively close to estimates, down by 0.7% or $40.8 million.

“While revenues largely held up for two months, the next eight weeks will be far more telling of the State’s fiscal health,” said Chiang. “Record unemployment, at levels not seen for three decades, continues to aggravate California’s structural budget deficit.”

The receipts from tax deadlines in December and January are generally reliable indicators of expected Spring tax receipts.

Year-to-date revenues remain below the amended 2009-10 budget’s estimates by $835 million or -2.8%. But lower-than-anticipated State expenses combined with an additional $1 billion in external borrowing put the State’s cash position $610 million ahead of its projected level on November 30.

The State started the fiscal year with an $11.9 billion cash deficit in the General Fund, which grew to $24.4 billion by November 30. Those deficits are being covered with a combination of $15.6 billion of internal borrowing from special funds and $8.8 billion in short-term revenue anticipation notes.

November 2009's financial statement and the summary analysis can be found on the Controller’s Web site at www.sco.ca.gov.

====

There's no words for this that discerning readers cannot see for themselves. Internal borrowing is "not paying bills" and "short-term revenue anticipation notes" is more debt.

Weather Sucks Stay Away!

2009-12-09T16:03:00.000-08:00

This is the horror left in the wake of the Monday storm. Stay away. There's two more storms behind it.

30 months Too Late

2009-12-09T10:17:00.000-08:00

By my estimate $2.5T in MEW is unsupported by reasonable asset valuation. In total somewhere between $7T and $9T in phantom equity is exposed in any retracement to the mean. An orderly retreat will allow inflation to eat away much of this. A decline in the dollar may result in a disproportionate amount of pain to be taken by foreign investors. No matter how the pain is spread, there will be consumer pain. Likewise because of govt spending policies that resemble the proverbial cricket in summer we can expect massive deficits and even larger tax inceases. - Aug 6, 2006

And what does the MSM say?:

U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak
By Dan Levy

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homeowners have lost about $5.9 trillion in value since the housing market’s peak in March 2006 as mounting foreclosures and the recession weighed on prices, according to Zillow.com.

Almost half a trillion dollars was wiped out this year through November as housing headed for a third straight annual decline. New foreclosures and higher mortgage rates in 2010 may hinder a rebound, the property data service said today in a statement.

Let's Play Does It Float?

2009-12-07T14:58:00.000-08:00

Not that there's any open bodies of water anywhere near Victorville but there sure are more and more possible signs of a reasonable real estate investment market.
How would this one pencil out?

13752 Bluegrass:
Year Built: 2003 4 total bedroom(s) 2 total bath(s)
2 total full bath(s) Approximately 2277 sq. ft.
Fireplace in the Den 3 car garage
Central air conditioning Lot is 7205 sq. ft.

Decent house, not a mess, established neighborhood. Taxes don't appear too high.

Here's what the whacky z-people think they know.

$70k purchase, $5k costs. You'll need $20,000 and a $55,000 mortgage at ~6%. Payment $340. Taxes $160. I'd put at least $100 toward upkeep. It's gonna cost ya $600/mo to own this place plus $100/month lost opportunity cost of tying up $20k. These are tough times and so I'd have to factor 15% vaccancy. You'd need to rent for $825/month.

Yes, it floats.

Now for a rant. You all know the z data is hopelessly inaccurate. No news there but check out this bit:

That's Bing™ on top with a 2009 Copyright of 2008 NAVTEO material. These houses were built in 2003 no doubt these images are 2001 or earlier. Abusive application of supposed copyrights is getting entirely out of control.

Sears the REIT

2009-12-02T12:18:00.000-08:00

Sears Holdings:
KMart 1,321 discount stores, averaging 92,000 square feet
KMart 47 Super Centers, averaging 166,000 square feet
Sears 929 broadline stores averaging 133,000 square feet
Sears Essentials/Grand 73 stores averaging 115,000 square feet
Specialty stores 1,233 averaging 8,700 square feet

Grand total: 272 million square feet of retail space. Monuments fall.

This on the recent news of so many REITs exploding on stock values. Suckers.

The Eyes of Laura St.

2009-12-02T08:06:00.000-08:00

1446 Laura St. to be exact.

Check out the listing history:
Oct 17, 2009 Price Changed $235,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 14, 2009 Price Changed $265,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2008 Price Changed $299,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2007 Price Changed $309,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 28, 2007 Price Changed $329,900 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 02, 2007 Listed $344,000 -- MRMLS #I721298

As we close in on the 1000 day listing you would think they'd have learned a few lessons. They've made 30 mortgage payments and 5 tax payments in this time while losing equity faster and faster. Had they listed in April 2007 for $275,000 they'd have closed in a month. Instead they've spent $25k and watched another $50k evaporate.

Recovery

2009-11-25T11:16:00.000-08:00

Everyone is all smiles over the Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators[pdf] and this map showing "green shoots."

Unfortunately a bit of green in Montana doesn't mean much when there are 36 million people in California and a whopping 950,000 in Big Sky Country. Here's a population adjusted cartogram:

A GDP adjusted chartogram would be even less encouraging.

California Default Watch Initiated

2009-11-24T10:38:00.000-08:00

I've been quiet about California just because there hasn't been anything to add. The State went into a terminal dive last summer as covered by the Daily California Watch Series.

Now even the longtime insiders are seeing all other possibilities foreclosed:
Dan Walters in the Fresno Bee:

If some of the bleaker economic forecasts kicking around are accurate and/or the state doesn't act quickly to close the gap, Taylor's $20.7 billion problem could easily balloon to $25 billion or more. Even more ominously, as temporary tax increases expire and deferred spending promises come due, the state faces annual deficits in the $20 billion range for many years to come, Taylor says.
The battle lines are already forming on whether to deal with the crisis with more spending cuts, more new taxes and/or more gimmicks.
...
They've scraped the bottom of the gimmick barrel, voters are livid and new taxes are functionally off the table. This will be one of the bloodiest skirmishes the Capitol has ever seen — with the only option being that the most populous state in the nation default on its debts.

And Federal receivership won't fly either. The terms will prove intractable and the other States will howl.
And vat does our Leader, da Governator haf to say?:

As pieces of the July state budget solution begin to unravel, the Republican governor said judges – especially on the federal level – are preventing California from solving its problems.

He complained in particular about judicial actions that have struck down some state worker furloughs, required reductions in the prison population, imposed restrictions on water delivery in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and this week blocked cuts to in-home care services.

"They are going absolutely crazy," Schwarzenegger said of judges. "So we have to have a very serious conversation with the federal government, because they have to let us run the state." [from Fresno Bee last month.]

Want an example of "out of control" judges? This also from the Fresno Bee:

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009 - 2:43 pm
The California Redevelopment Association filed suit in Sacramento Superior Court today to block the state Finance Department from carrying out a $2.05 billion shift of tax increment funds from local redevelopment agencies over a two-year period.

California's adopted budget for 2009-10 seeks 1.7 billion in funds from the state's redevelopment agencies to help finance schools and calls for shifting another $350 million in the next fiscal year. The suit challenges the constitutionality of the budget language and cites state plans to use the money for non-redevelopment purposes.

The association prevailed in an earlier lawsuit challenging 2008-2009 budget language that would have shifted $350 million in tax increment funds to the state.

Yeah, stealing and getting caught is the judge's fault.

Amazing Divergence

2009-11-18T08:12:00.000-08:00

This is Anadarco Petroleum [red] and the UNG natural gas ETF [blue] from Nov '07 to Nov '08:

This makes sense seeing as APC is very much a natgas company.

Now look at what's happened Nov '08 to Nov '09:

This is where you are left scratching your head. Why is a nat gas company up 60% when its product is getting 60% less when sold?

Unless you think natgas prices are going to return to and blow through last summer's highs I see a fundamental disconnect.

Traditions Best Preserved

2009-11-18T06:45:00.000-08:00

The President of The United States of America bows to no one and the US Flag is dipped in deference to none. It isn't arrogance or hubris or bravado. It is homage to and acknowledgement of a revolutionary concept that has changed the face of the world several times over.
That this fundamental precept of our raison d'etre has been abandoned by the office holder of the moment is personally deeply painful. Sorry. I cannot go on without violating decorum.

Price Drop La Loma

2009-11-17T14:12:00.000-08:00

Rancho Margarita - A rare find in Somis! This 4BR/3BTH home sits on 11.66 acres with spectacular ocean and valley views from nearly every room. Open floorplan with common areas upstairs and three of four bedrooms downstairs. Numerous balconies, large windows and sliding doors bring the outside in. Large master suite with private patio and ocean/island views from the bathtub. Pool, spa and BBQ area are set to the ultimate backdrop. Four car extra-deep garage with additional work area. Large downstairs laundry room could be second kitchen to create potential inlaw unit. The hilltop home is surrounded by stately pine and sycamore trees, providing ultimate privacy from the few neighbors. A paved private road winds through the orchard, giving direct access to La Loma Ave; stop at the 2-stall barn with separate tack room and outside pen area - ideal for your farm animals. Nine shares of Del Norte ag water and private reservoir irrigate approx 800 avocado trees.
-------
Nov 10, 2009 Price Changed $1,449,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Oct 13, 2009 Listed $1,550,000 -- VCRDS #90016961
Aug 13, 2009 Price Changed $1,550,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Apr 12, 2009 Listed $1,750,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
-------
Fifty thousand dollars off. $301,000 off original price. Sorry but 3% doesn't freshen the listing. Hat tip to "Effective Demand" who noticed the price drop. Maybe 20% more and I can afford it and it makes sense.

Backing out the taxable basis ($2100/yr) it looks like a 1989/1990 sale for approximately $160k. Nice.

Tuition Fee Rose Smell

2009-11-17T10:55:00.000-08:00

Why Are We Destroying Public Education?
University of California Students and Staff Prepare for System-Wide Strike to Protest Cuts
The governing body of the University of California system, the Board of Regents, is preparing to vote on a major tuition hike for both undergraduate and graduate students. Undergraduate tuition would rise an average 32 percent, while some graduate schools would begin charging thousands of dollars for programs that are currently tuition-free. The Regents are meeting Thursday at UCLA, where students from across the state are converging for what organizers have dubbed a “Crisis Fest,” including mass protests, civil disobedience and teach-ins.

Regents bring debate to campus
By Laura Belyavski
Nov. 17, 2009 at 3:38 a.m.
Beginning this afternoon, Covel Commons will host a three-day UC Board of Regents meeting.
The board is scheduled to vote on the budget proposal that goes through the 2010-2011 fiscal year and includes the controversial 32 percent student fee increase.
The initial 15 percent rise in fees would take effect winter quarter, and a second increase of the same rate would take place fall 2010. Since the second hike would be based on the increased winter quarter fee level, fees would rise a total of 32 percent from their current level.
UC Board of Regents Meeting
The regents will meet at UCLA from Tuesday to Thursday at Covel Commons.
Tuesday, Nov. 17
• Vote on external financing for the Santa Monica/Orthopaedic Replacement Hospital and a parking structure at UCLA
• Vote on the proposed 2009-2010 state capital investments budget
Wednesday, Nov. 18
• Vote on 2009-2010 midyear and 2010-2011 fee increases
• Vote on 2010-2011 professional school fees Thursday, Nov. 19
• Agreement with Los Angeles County on the Martin Luther King Jr. Hospital
Compiled by Samantha Masunaga, Bruin senior staff.
Both UC spokesman Peter King and student regent-designate Jesse Cheng said they expect the proposal to pass.
“I would be surprised if it didn’t pass, but I’ve been surprised in my life many, many times,” King said.
...
“They need to do what they’re going to do,” King said.

SoCal ROI for Sept '08 to Sept '09

2009-11-11T11:11:00.000-08:00

First some background and the results for July:

40 years ago Ventura and Orange counties were virtually identical. Obviously they've taken different paths to get where they are today. In one respect however they have roughly paced each other; median housing prices. For one month at the peak the Ventura median exceeded Orange. With the smaller base Ventura is more exagerated and quicker to respond.
Here are the "returns" for your housing investment purchase of the median house in SoCal Jul '08:
Los Angeles $80k down payment $6600/mo equity decline -99%/yr return
Orange $92k down payment $3400/mo equity decline -44%/yr return
Riverside $52k down payment $6200/mo equity decline -144%/yr return
San Bernardino $46k down payment $7500/mo equity decline -195%/yr return
San Diego $44k down payment $3700/mo equity decline -61%/yr return
Ventura $64k down payment $3800/mo equity decline -56%/yr return
I'd like to call your attention to what happened to the knife catchers in the Inland Empire (Riverside & San Bernardino) last year. Now, extrapolate. The IE has in the past been a leading indicator of the Coast. Ruh roh. I expect another leg down in the coastal communities but with substantial local variations.

Here's October:
Los Angeles $72k down payment $2500/mo equity decline -42%/yr return
Orange $85k down payment $340/mo equity increase +4.7%/yr return
Riverside $47k down payment $4375/mo equity decline -114%/yr return
San Bernardino $41k down payment $4580/mo equity decline -134%/yr return
San Diego $66k down payment $250/mo equity decline -3%/yr return
Ventura $77k down payment $1100/mo equity decline -43%/yr return

So much for buying at the bottom. This is definitely a metric worth watching.

Beach Weather

2009-11-11T09:14:00.001-08:00

October 3rd Coolest on Record

The Bastards can't even bring themselves to say "coldest" opting instead for "coolest." Excerpt:

The October 2009 average temperature for the contiguous United States was the third coolest on record for that month according to NOAA’s State of the Climate report issued today. Based on data going back to 1895, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services provided by NOAA.

The average October temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees F below the 20th Century average. Preliminary data also reveals this was the wettest October on record with average precipitation across the contiguous United States reaching 4.15 inches, 2.04 inches above the 1901-2000 average.

This puts a chill into the Copenhagen party scheduled next month.

Bond FAIL

2009-11-10T16:24:00.000-08:00

The LA Times has the story:

Borrowing $1.9 billion Tuesday via bonds that mature in June 2013, the state was forced to pay a 4% annualized tax-free yield to lure investors to the deal.

Just last Friday the brokerages underwriting the deal, led by Goldman Sachs, had estimated that the bonds could be sold at a yield of 3%.

4% tax free is roughly equivalent to 7.5% taxable. Sad.

Useful Links

2009-11-10T14:48:00.000-08:00

Blatantly ripped of from the clever Reformed Broker:

Here are the Periodic Elements of the Financial Blogosphere:

Rocket Science (macroeconomics, monetary policy, real estate, regulation)

BP The Big Picture

EV Economists View

IP Investment Postcards

CR Calculated Risk

BS Baseline Scenario

CA Cafe Americain

BC Bronte Capital

AI Accrued Interest

MS Global Econ Trend Analysis

PF Psy-Fi Blog

MU Musings of a Trader

KD Market-Ticker

NC Naked Capitalism

PK Infectious Greed

EB Econbrowser

GM Greg Mankiw’s Blog

AC Across The Curve

MR Marginal Revolution

WB World Beta

CD Carpe Diem

SP The Capital Spectator

CX CXO Advisory

DS dshort.com

WR Credit Writedowns

L Alea Blog

GR Grasping Reality

BN Bearish News

BR Broke and Broker

GG Gregor Macdonald

Rogues Gallery (misfits, jokers, rebels & knaves)

DB Dealbreaker

LF LOLFed

JR Jr Deputy Accountant

WF Wall Street Fighter

KO 1-2 Knockout

LS Long or Short Capital

MW Money Is The Way

ED The Epicurean Dealmaker

UB Ultimi Barbarorum

ZH Zero Hedge

FO footnoted.org

AU re: The Auditors

RB The Reformed Broker

F The Fly

FB Falkenblog

CU BlogMaverick

DY Kid Dynamite

HL Howard Lindzon

RO Rortybomb

The Establishment (mainstream media bloggers/ news sites)

FL Floyd Norris

FS Felix Salmon

MB Market Beat

PB Pony Blog

MV Minyanville

DP The Deal Professor

TT Tech Trader Daily

TS TheStreet.com

FT FT Alphaville

DE DealBook

JP James Pethokoukis

HP Huffington Post Business

CU Curious Capitalist

EX Economix

DJ Deal Journal

TB Matt Taibbi

FR Freakonomics

PM Planet Money

DL The Deal

Stock Operators (traders, technical analysis)

FF Fund My Mutual Fund

CC Charts and Coffee

UP Upside Trader

KR Kirk Report

MT My 10,000 Dollars

SH Slope of Hope

BC iBankCoin

ST StockTwits

MI Trader Mike

VX Vix and More

DO Daily Options Report

CM Cara Community

MX Maoxian

QE Quantifiable Edges

AT Afraid To Trade

AL AlphaTrends

JE Jesse Felder

CN Condor Options

SW Andy Swan

TV Tickerville

LD Surfview Capital

Peanut Gallery (multiple voices and sources of commentary, aggregators)

NV Investing Contrarian

BI Business Insider

AB Angry Bear

DC Daily Crux

TM The Money Blogs

SC Money Science

BM The Big Money

TR Take a Report

CS Wall St Cheat Sheet

MM Money Morning

WM Wealth Managers League

GF Greenfaucet

OA Wall Street Oasis

NF Newsflashr

PH Phil’s Stock World

TF TraderFeed

BS BloggingStocks

SA Seeking Alpha

TW 24/7 Wall Street

DR Daily Reckoning

Baby Buffetts (value investors, stock picking, fundamental analysis, activism)

AR Abnormal Returns

A Aleph Blog

BE Bespoke Investment Group

CW Crossing Wall Street

EJ Breakout Performance

GX Gen X Finance

GB Greenbackd

IC Investing Caffeine

DG Dividend Growth Investor

DI A Dash of Insight

JM Jeff Matthews

MF Market Folly

PC The Pragmatic Capitalist

RR Random Roger

VP Value Plays

CE ContrarianEdge

MG ModernGraham

Rumblings and Ramblings

2009-11-08T07:29:00.000-08:00

900+ events is rather a lot really. Predicting earthquakes is what gets even fake psychics discredited but I cannot help wonder if a 7+ someplace won't be trigger event for an already fragile economy. Even the usual home price drop near the epicenter in these conditions could empty out an entire city with walkaways.

The CalPERS Crush Part 1

2009-11-07T06:16:00.000-08:00

The CalPERS financial bomb has gone off. The blast wave hasn't arrived to knock us all down is all. Revenues are falling further, unemployment is out of control. The UE fund is projecting a $23.7b deficit.

Employers, who support the fund through a tax on each worker, are expected to contribute $4.3 billion this year but that is nowhere near the $12.5 billion that is projected to be paid out in benefits. After eking out a $326.2 million surplus in 2008, the trust fund is expected to be $7.4 billion in the red by the end of this year.

Hey, no big deal. Nothing a one time $1500 surcharge for every remaining worker wouldn't cover. Right? The big news however is all the rotting fish at CalPERS. The consulting fee scandal. The ignored overpaying for financial services report. The failure to pursue specific performance clauses. CalPERS now even has a special blog to refute the lies being told about it.

CalPERS "stuff" following is intended to be backgrounder for those interested in saying "I saw all this coming." It's like decoding the Japanese diplomatic transmissions in Nov '41. We know lots of things but it all isn't in one place. THe insolvency crisis is long term. Let's talk liquidity. Because of muni pressures and the rats leaving the ship and a demographic bulge and recent "flexibility" granted end of career calculations a lot more people are retiring than was planned. That on top of a contributor (State, munis, districts) cash crunch that has them not making full contributions. Indeed some are reacting like the US at the United Nations. Years behind full dues. This was okay as long as the CalPERS was raking in cash. Those same years also made the watchmen lax in making sure they could met future promises.
Then the cash squeeze arrives. Lots of the crap on their books is so complex it can't be unwound. The people who set it up are gone and the counterprties are out of business. Trying to sell a large complex security in this market and they honestly won't get fair value. At least they have that part right.

List of $100,000 retirees:
California Pension Reform's 'The CalPERS 100K Club'
Plug in you favorite city/district and read the list. Shocking.

CalPERS resorts to counter propoganda:
CalPERS tweets back at 'misinformation' - Los Angeles Business from bizjournals:
The propoganda itself:
CalPERS Responds
Funny relations:
CalPERS reviewing tie with Apollo Management after steep losses -- latimes.com
More funny business:
He earned $53 million opening doors to CalPERS money -- latimes.com
CalPERS discloses more fees paid to Alfred Villalobos -- latimes.com
Calpers Knew of Foreign-Exchange Trading Hits - WSJ.com

I'm still working on evidence of massive overpaying to retirees and the instances of outrageous double dipping.

Technological Leadership

2009-11-06T08:04:00.000-08:00

Was at Disneyland yesterday. Fun, short lines, etc. Went to the ASIMO demo. Honda in 1950 made motors for bicycles. Today FCX and Hondajet and a robot that can actually run. GM? They have GMAC and an iPod jack in their Buicks.

I weep for the Republic. Spend six minutes with Race Against Time to see what we've lost.

House Prices in Gold

2009-11-03T09:46:00.000-08:00

Feb '06 median Ventura County home: $680k
Price of gold: $560/oz.
Median home price in gold: 1214 ounces.

Oct '09 median Ventura county home: $419k
Price of gold: $1000
Median home price in gold: 419 ounces.

Value today of the gold you bought in 2006 after selling your house: $1,214,000.

Turn one house into 3 in 3 years. Sounds like something Casey would do (in reverse).

Better Than HSR

2009-11-02T15:00:00.000-08:00

More pictures and a fun little website touting the future of air travel at Aeroscraft.

Quick write up at SonyRadio. Excerpt:

It's the Aero craft, and when it's completed, it will ferry pampered passengers across continents and oceans as they stroll leisurely about the one-acre cabin or relax in their staterooms Unlike its dirigible ancestors, the Aero craft is not lighter than air It's 14 million cubic feet of helium hoist only two-thirds of the craft's weight. The rigid and surprisingly aerodynamic body, driven by huge rear-ward propellers, generates enough additional lift to keep the behemoth and its 400-ton payload aloft while cruising During takeoff and landing, six turbo-fan jet engines push the ship up or ease its descent. This two-football-fields-long airship is the brainchild of Igor Pasternak, whose privately funded California firm, Worldwide Aeros Corporation, is in the early stages of developing a prototype and expects to have one completed by 2010 .

Pasternak says several cruise ship companies have expressed interest in the project, and for good reason - the craft would have a range of several thousand miles, and, wit h an estimated top speed of 174 mph, could traverse the continental United States in about 18 hours. During the flight, passengers would view national landmarks just 8,000 feet below, or, if they weren't captivated by the view, the cavernous interior would easily accommodate such amenities as luxury staterooms, restaurants - - even a casino.

To minimize noise, the aft-mounted propellers will be electric, powered by a renewable source such as hydrogen fuel cells.

What do I think?:

Starve The Squid

2009-11-01T08:27:00.001-08:00

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Delaware
Goldman, Sachs & Co. - New York
Goldman Sachs (Asia) Finance Holdings L.L.C. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. ET CIE - France
Goldman Sachs Services Limited - British Virgin Islands
GS Power Holdings LLC - Delaware
Goldman Sachs (UK) L.L.C. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Group Holdings (U.K.) - United Kingdom
Scadbury UK Limited - United Kingdom
Scadbury Funding Limited - Cayman Islands
Scadbury II Assets Limited - Cayman Islands
Killingholme Generation Limited - United Kingdom
KPL Acquisitions Limited - United Kingdom
GS Killingholme Cayman Investments Ltd. - Cayman Islands
GS Killingholme Cayman Investments II Ltd - Cayman Islands
GS Killingholme Cayman Investments III - Cayman Islands
GS Killingholme Cayman Investments IV, L.P. - Cayman Islands
KPL Finance Limited - Cayman Islands
Goldman Sachs Holdings (U.K.) - United Kingdom
Goldman Sachs International - United Kingdom
Goldman Sachs Asset Management International - United Kingdom
Forres LLC - Delaware
Shire UK Limited - United Kingdom
GS Funding Investments Limited - Cayman Islands
GS Liquid Trading Platform II Limited - Isle of Jersey
GS Capital Funding (Cayman) II Limited - Cayman Islands
MLQ Investors, L.P. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Realty Japan Ltd. - Japan
Nephrite Equity Co., Ltd. - Japan
GK Blue Square (1) - Japan
GK Frangipani (1) - Japan
K.K. Minato Saiken Kaishu - Japan
GS Financial Services L.P. (Del) - Delaware
Chiltern Trust - Isle of Jersey
Laffitte Participation 10 - France
Laffitte Participation 12 - France
GS Longport Investment Corporation - Delaware
GSFS Investments I Corp - Delaware
GS Leasing (KCSR 2007-1) LLC - Delaware
GS Global Investments, Co. - Delaware
GS Global Investments UK, Inc. - Delaware
County UK Limited - Cayman Islands
County Funding Limited - United Kingdom
County Assets Limited - Cayman Islands
Goldman Sachs Global Holdings L.L.C. - Delaware
GS Asian Venture (Delaware) L.L.C. - Delaware
Brasilia Cayman Investments Limited - Cayman Islands
Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. - British Virgin Islands
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. - Japan
J. Aron Holdings, L.P. - Delaware
J. Aron & Company - New York
Prop — GS Fundo de Investimento Multimercado Credito Privado - -
Investimento No Exterior - Brazil
Goldman Sachs Asset Management, L.P. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co., Ltd. - Japan
Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Strategies LLC - Delaware
Goldman Sachs (Cayman) Holding Company - Cayman Islands
Goldman, Sachs & Co. oHG - Germany
Goldman Sachs (Cayman) Trust, Limited - Cayman Islands
Goldman Sachs Global Services II Limited - Cayman Islands
Goldman Sachs Services (B.V.I.) Limited - British Virgin Islands
Goldman Sachs (Asia) Corporate Holdings L.P. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited - Hong Kong
Goldman Sachs Foreign Exchange (Singapore) Pte. - Singapore
J Aron & Company (Singapore) Pte. - Singapore
Goldman Sachs (Asia) Securities Limited - Hong Kong
Goldman Sachs (Asia) Finance - Mauritius
Goldman Sachs Financial Markets, L.P. - Delaware
MTGLQ Investors, L.P. - Delaware
ELQ Investors, Ltd - United Kingdom
GS European Opportunities Investment Fund B.V. (1) - Netherlands
Matterhorn Acquisitions Ltd. - United Kingdom
NEG (TPL) Limited - United Kingdom
South Wales TPL Investments Limited - United Kingdom
Western Power Investments Limited - United Kingdom
Poseidon Acquisitions Ltd - United Kingdom
Goldman Sachs Lending Partners LLC - Delaware
Liquidity Assets Holding Limited - Cayman Islands
Liquidity Assets Limited - Cayman Islands
GS Macro Investments LLC - Delaware
GS Macro Investments II, LLC - Delaware
GS Mehetia LLC - Delaware
Mehetia Holdings Inc. - Delaware
Mehetia Inc. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Bank USA - New York
Goldman Sachs Mortgage Company - New York
William Street Equity LLC - Delaware
William Street Funding Corporation - Delaware
GSCP (DEL) Inc. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Credit Partners L.P. - Bermuda
Litton Mortgage Servicing, LLC - Utah
Litton Loan Servicing, L.P. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Holdings (Netherlands) B.V. - Netherlands
Goldman Sachs Mitsui Marine Derivative Products, L.P.(1) - Delaware
GSSM Holding II LLC - Delaware
GSSM Holding II Corp. - Delaware
GSTM LLC - Delaware
SLK LLC - New York
Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P. - New York
GS Financial Services II, LLC - Delaware
GS Funding Europe Limited - United Kingdom
Amagansett II Assets Limited - Cayman Islands
GS European Funding I LTD. - Cayman Islands
GS Funding Europe II Ltd. - Cayman Islands
Commonwealth Annuity and Life Insurance Company - Massachusetts
GS Diversified Funding LLC - Delaware
GS Diversified Investments Limited - Delaware
GS Capital Funding (UK) 1 Limited - United Kingdom
Reserve Liquid Performance Money Market Fund - New York
GS Ayco Holding LLC - Delaware
The Ayco Company, L.P. - Delaware
Rothesay Pensions Management Limited - United Kingdom
Eastport Capital Corp. - Delaware
EPF Financial, LLC - Delaware
GS Investment Strategies, LLC - Delaware
GS Mezzanine Partners 2006, L.P. - Delaware
Goldman Sachs Canada Credit Partners Co. - Canada -

-
(1) These entities are partially owned by third-party investors.

Valuable $250 Coupon Inside!

2009-10-30T08:22:00.000-07:00

2010 Audi R8 5.2 Coupe -
Date: 2009-10-23, 5:50PM PDT
Bodystyle: 2 door Coupe
Engine: 5.2L V-10cyl
Ext. Color: Phantom Black
Int. Color: Ebony Stock
Number: AX00029
VIN: WUAANAFGXAN000210
Model Code: 42352B

Print out this page for a $250 discount at dealer. Vehicle service history and Car Fax available.

LOL! $250! Asking price? $168,650.
Craigslist ad here.

A Tale of Two Neighbors Part 1 The Ranchos

2009-10-29T12:25:00.000-07:00

The paths to putting houses in strong hands are varied and interesting. Here we have two neighbors that have taken roads less travelled. This is the Somis Area of Ventura County.

Our two market competitors are in the lower left:
5577 La Cumbre Rd
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $750,000
BEDS: 4 BATHS: 3
SQ. FT.: 3,631 $/SQ. FT.: $207
LOT SIZE: 2.16 Acres
YEAR BUILT: 1973

And at the upper right:
4386 Palomino Dr
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $628,300
BEDS: 4 BATHS: 2.5
SQ. FT.: 2,486 $/SQ. FT.: $253
LOT SIZE: 0.66 Acres
YEAR BUILT: 1976

Now look at the differences in their descriptions.

La Cumbre
Short Sale: Subject to Lender Approval. Great value property in rural Somis, Horses Allowed! Spanish Ranch Style 4 Bedroom/4 Bath single level home with in-ground pool on two acres. Family and Living rooms. Game room includes a wet bar. This home is clean. Multiple fruit trees. Home sets on back of part of acreage. Call your Realtor today and schedule a private showing!

Palomino
Just REDUCED over $56,000! Exceptional opportunity for this gated corner lot property with over 1/2 acre and views front and rear from front & rear balconies/deck. Property is dated, but in good condition. 4 car garage with 1 tandem space plus an RV garage and plenty more room for storage. All bedrooms upstairs. Great potential. .. great area. Property is sold as is and buyer is responsible for any & all inspections.

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50% more house in obviously better condition on 3x the land and privacy. No contest here especially since Palomino all but screams that there are structural problems. It probably isn't an oversight that it wasn't picked up by the aggressive third party buyers for a flip. The question is whether La Cumbre is really a short sale that isn't obvious from the records and whether it will eventually go back to the bank for an even better deal.

In part 2 we'll graduate from rachos to a pair of nearby neighboring ranches.

Gas Up Diesel Down

2009-10-29T10:50:00.000-07:00

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(Business Wire)--
Betty T. Yee, Chairwoman of the Board of Equalization (BOE), today released
gasoline and diesel consumption figures for July 2009.California gasoline demand
rose by 2.2 percent in July compared to the same month of the previous year.
Demand for on-road diesel fell a substantial 11.2 percent in July from the same
period in 2008.

Up 2.2% is okay but diesel off 11.2% is a flashing danger sign for the economy.

Alright it is behind us

2009-10-26T14:04:00.000-07:00

There's at least another 50 years to go. Advice as to what to talk about will be appreciated.

1959

2009-10-24T20:51:00.000-07:00

Oh to be 24 again:

CRE Overbuilding

2009-10-18T08:43:00.000-07:00

LATimes this morning:

The exodus from office buildings that started in late 2007 accelerated during the third quarter as the anemic business climate took its toll on the real estate rental industry, according to the Cushman & Wakefield real estate brokerage.
"These vacancies are a direct reflection on unemployment," said Joe Vargas, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield. "Companies continue to reduce their workforce, or they are not hiring."

Snark translation: Thank you for choosing Cushman & Wakefield. We know you have many choices when analyzing the Southern California CRE market and we are dedicated to making your meal here with us a pleasant one. One note; the entire company is a hopium smoking section for your convienence. On the menu this morning ; one large cup of denial, buttered statistics, a steaming bowl of hypocrisy. For the main course; only the finest hand packed sausage made from the same secret ingredient entrails that go into our projections. For dessert; dollops of a most distracting concoction, blame of unemployment, is piled on top of the truth of overbuilding so that the resulting melange simply transcends understanding. We call it hoocoodanode parfait. And for your entertainment your server will read from his latest book.

IMO SoCal CRE suffers more from shadow overcapacity than does RRE. There were a lot of perfect storm trends that came together to produce this historic imbalance. Those general trends can be broken down into several categories. Economic, demographic, geographic, sociological, technological and competitive. We can spend hours on any but just an example of competitive. The Oxnard Target store is moving. A whole 1/2 mile across the freeway, further away from its cachement locus. Why? Because if they don't a competitor might take that new space and predate their customers. Now you've got a surplus full size Target store close to the core of a large population center.

Ventura Star story:

The closure of Oxnard’s existing Target will increase the barren surroundings of the area, which has seen its share of shuttered businesses: 24 Hour Fitness next door to Target; the abandoned Wagon Wheel area across Oxnard Boulevard; and a nearby boarded-up building that formerly housed Levitz.

Curtis Cannon, the city’s community development director, said he’s not concerned.

The green arrow is the new Target location:

Adequate Coverage

2009-10-17T00:44:00.000-07:00

Modern man a wimp says anthropologist

Excerpt:

Some Tutsi men in Rwanda exceeded the current world high jump record of 2.45 metres during initiation ceremonies in which they had to jump at least their own height to progress to manhood.

Any Neanderthal woman could have beaten former bodybuilder and current California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in an arm wrestle.

These and other eye-catching claims are detailed in a book by Australian anthropologist Peter McAllister entitled ‘Manthropology’ and provocatively sub-titled ‘The Science of the Inadequate Modern Male.’

McAllister sets out his stall in the opening sentence of the prologue.

‘If you’re reading this then you — or the male you have bought it for — are the worst man in history.

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Perhaps but evolution doth hath its advantages.

Another Late Party Arrival

2009-10-14T22:55:00.000-07:00

This one is a hoot. It's like the last 3 years never happened.

Modest 1/2 acre golf course house. Nice if dated. Purchased 05/08/2008: $855,000. Across the street from a recent comp 10% less. So, what do you do when you overpay? Go pergraniteel wild of course.

Here's a before shot:

And after:

Can you say over-improved? The first flip strategy was to "rent." For some reason there was a dearth of applications at $4500/month. Oh well, those months empty only served to add to the appreciation of the investment. Right?

Thus the new wishing price: $1,899,000
Yup, tack a 1 to the front and let's go fishing. I mean if you don't want to rent for $4500 then you can buy for only $400,000 down and $8,000 per month instead.

Late to the Party

2009-10-14T11:42:00.001-07:00

Gee, did I miss anything? you know, like the biggest bubble in modern history?

Wait, I've got a couple of circa 2005 attitude beauties that need sellin':
Anacapa:

rm and gracious home of over 4230 sq. ft. with vaulted wood ceilings throughout combine with expansive lighting to enhance the wood tones of the glowing maple flooring. Open floor plan with 5 bedrooms, 5 1/2 baths, antique wall fixtures blend with the inviting comfort of the home's decor. Interior activities flow to the exterior activities and multiple patios, including the unusual BBQ pit which allows seating around the perimeter with moving tractor seats. A prime grove of avocados with good well water for irrigation + Ventura County Waterworks for domestic use. A steel arena, custom stalls, 3 covered feed areas, Round pen + deck, oversize tack room, custom built wash rack, trails, enclosed dog runs, workshop, fencing, 2-400 Amp electic panels, landscaped areas with mature trees, 32 x 30 Breezeway, 7 X 80 front porch, Guest house approximately 540 sq. ft. , a workers residence of approx. 1500 sq, ft. Flat area + knoll with viewing deck to enjoy the valley and ocean views.

OCEAN EFFIN' Views? The curvature of the earthe takes care of that. Jeez.
And this poor sod:
Apple Ave.
Beautiful newer home in Wrightwood. Home built in 2008, this home features 3 bedrooms with two full bathrooms. The home has a large living room with fireplace for cozy winter nights with an open kitchen area. There are two inside laundry rooms and a large 2 car garage. The exterior features a wrap around deck with views of the mountains. This home is a must see.

See the similarities? Ouch.

Wrightwood Burning

2009-10-04T11:16:00.000-07:00

ABC 7 here.

Rim of the World coverage here.

LA Times.

Ghoulish comment. Mmmmm, smells like cheap houses.

Blog O' Note

2009-09-24T10:05:00.000-07:00

One of the places I watch for inside news:
American Banker
and some cheesecake:

Just for Cobradriver

2009-09-16T15:48:00.000-07:00

Kunstler's Eyesore of the month is a Seminole Gaming project.

"Located 30 miles east of glitzy Naples, Immokalee is one of the most economically depressed areas in the US. It's home mostly to recent immigrants who work the nearby fields. The city is notorious for crime and general destitution. Its decaying buildings are seemingly held together only by the bars visible on every window. Many newer structures don't have windows. It's that kind of place.
"For decades Immokalee has been a blemish on the repute of nearby Naples, both located in Collier County. And for just as long, residents of Naples have attempted to create a newer, better, cleaner Immokalee, but with little success. The latest proposal calls for a massive addition to the existing Seminole Casino, a dingy outpost of video poker and 28-deck-shoe blackjack that occupies a pimped out ex-aircraft hanger on the skirts of town. This, of course, is being sold as What Immokalee Needs.
"Curious is the artist's representation of a south Florida hotel with hills in the background."

Desperate and Dangerous

2009-09-15T11:59:00.000-07:00

AMAZING BRAND NEW STAINLESS STEAL KITCHENAID OVEN!!!!!! Never been used....needed to upgrade our elecrtical through out the house but ended up moving before we did. Doesn't fit in the new house.....SOOOO SAD. Our loss is DEFINITELY your GAIN. EXcellent oven, $3300.00 in stores.
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Sad. The last desperate acts of tre FBs.

Firm

2009-09-11T09:51:00.000-07:00

Check out these two craigslist posts. The thin veneer of civility is cracking.

Pair 2006 Yamaha FX Cruisers + Trailer - $13700 (Simi Valley)
Pair of 2006 Yamaha FX Cruisers High Output with Dual Zieman Trailer

I have a pair of High performance Yamaha 3-seater Waverunners. These are the top of the line Waverunner.They are 2006 but My husband bought them new for my Birthday in March of 2007 and we have only taken them on 2 trips. They have been sitting next to my house for over a year unused.They have very very low hours of use. BlueBook value for the waverunners and the Double Zieman trailer is almost 18,000. These are a bargain at 13,700. I own them outright and have the certificate of title in hand. Don't buy new ones when these are identical and a steal at this price!!Please call

Please do not even bother calling or e-mailing if you expect me to fall for some Western Union or money Order Scam. It's not gonna happen. Thanks, Gina
____________________________
Okay, Gina. And this sweet dealz:

MUST SELL - $3500 (ventura county)

2007 YZ450F new engine,great condition, $3000
2008 crf 250 25 hours like new $3500
2008 crf 450 50 hours,new transmission,new top end,runs great $3500

these are priced very cheap,we need to move them in order to pay some bills.
Prices are not negotiable,these are very well maintained machines that you will
enjoy riding.
_____________________________

Gen-X and their toys. Such a sad marriage. I'd give Gina $6k for her $18k package. Maybe $$3500 for the entire second package.

Somebody Get A Rope

2009-09-10T16:55:00.000-07:00

LATimes story:

"For a business to allow this to happen in today's ethically charged climate is quite suicidal," he said. And because Madoff's fraud was the root cause of the situation, he added, "it's like rubbing salt into the wounds of a national tragedy."

The home's former owners, Lawrence and Linda Elins, didn't respond to requests for an interview.

Their real estate agent, Irene Dazzan-Palmer, said she had tried to lease the home for the couple last spring after they were "devastated" by Madoff losses. But before she could find a renter, the couple signed over the property to Wells Fargo to help satisfy a larger debt, she said.

Wells Fargo subsequently denied requests to show the house to prospective buyers, said Dazzan-Palmer, a Coldwell Banker specialist in Malibu Colony properties.

__________________________________
I don't even know how Casey got the sex change operation nevermind the new job.