tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post115025639140248130..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Sympathy? Mercy?Rob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1153033691414839642006-07-16T00:08:00.000-07:002006-07-16T00:08:00.000-07:00Good time to point out that moderately falling inv...Good time to point out that moderately falling inventory is the norm over the summer. We aren't bothering to do seasonal adjustments here. Not necessary. When "Jack" talks about a slowing or plateau it is in context of a market that should be showing a steady decline into the fall.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1153003895963739012006-07-15T15:51:00.000-07:002006-07-15T15:51:00.000-07:00One day later, Phoenix inventory 51,500 (7/15)One day later, Phoenix inventory 51,500 (7/15)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152939376972544172006-07-14T21:56:00.000-07:002006-07-14T21:56:00.000-07:00lol Phoenix back over 51,000. Oops!lol Phoenix back over 51,000. Oops!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152533960822306152006-07-10T05:19:00.000-07:002006-07-10T05:19:00.000-07:00Robert,I thought you might be interested in knowin...Robert,<BR/><BR/>I thought you might be interested in knowing... I finally got out.<BR/><BR/><STRONG><A HREF="http://sittingprettyfinancially.blogspot.com/2006/07/palm-springs.html" REL="nofollow">Sitting Pretty in Palm Springs</A></STRONG>Nina Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07073245192107488505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152480263537455372006-07-09T14:24:00.000-07:002006-07-09T14:24:00.000-07:00In the next week or two the peak will be obvious e...<I>In the next week or two the peak will be obvious even to you.</I><BR/><BR/>I thought you only needed 'til this Thursday? Now you want another week or two? Hmmm, Sherman set the Mayback Machine: <BR/><BR/><I>Seven days, Cote. That's all we need.</I><BR/><BR/>Someone is learning real time data collection and analysis the hard way.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152463701387032802006-07-09T09:48:00.000-07:002006-07-09T09:48:00.000-07:00Beat me to it Fuzzy. It's worse than trend, every...Beat me to it Fuzzy. It's worse than trend, every update that meets my criteria of first fridy, first full week, post holidy, etc. has been uniformly up erasing the glitch in reporting. I'm a lot of things but I am not innumerate. <BR/><BR/>One thing I am is intolerant of incompetence when mixed with braggadacio. Jack will apologize for wasting time and bandwidth or I will help him with the latter.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152432661012385412006-07-09T01:11:00.000-07:002006-07-09T01:11:00.000-07:00So, I get four of seven right on the money and am ...<I>So, I get four of seven right on the money and am confronted by a hostile housing bear sneaking over from Ben's blog. What else should I expect?</I><BR/><BR/>Just the facts, man. You're down to two out of seven. Trend? <BR/><BR/>Riverside County:<BR/>6/30: 24,490<BR/>7/04: 24,213<BR/>7/08: 24,517<BR/><BR/>San Diego County:<BR/>6/30: 22,588<BR/>7/04: 22,410<BR/>7/08: 22,755<BR/><BR/>http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/<BR/><BR/>Better facts next time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152341779905085272006-07-07T23:56:00.000-07:002006-07-07T23:56:00.000-07:00...so Jack - you believe in the US dollar? That w......so Jack - you believe in the US dollar? That we still "attract the best and brightest"? Global warming is the confabulation of crazed environmentalists, bent on destroying what, exactly?... <BR/><BR/>GW, the devil? Nah - nowhere near interesting enuf....Merely adequate as a cover for Darth Cheney's machinations... The same Darth who's heavily invested in European bonds, strong believer in the dollar that he should be... <BR/><BR/>Personally, I'm rapt, observing this trainwreck in slo-mo. Having accumulated a staggering list of housing-related stats over the past year, and convinced massive equity evaporation is guaranteed, p*ssing matches like the previous amuse me no end....ThxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152318373812710102006-07-07T17:26:00.000-07:002006-07-07T17:26:00.000-07:00Jack, just keep your head buried in the sand. The...Jack, just keep your head buried in the sand. There is now way housing justified the gains it experienced over the last 3-4 years. I've been at this gig for over 25 years and regardless of the stats in one MSA, the overall data points to a correction. How mild or hard it will be is debatable.<BR/><BR/>RMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152307650304069442006-07-07T14:27:00.000-07:002006-07-07T14:27:00.000-07:00Hey Fuzzy, thanks. I just now got the data. And ...Hey Fuzzy, thanks. I just now got the data. And what day is today? Robert says; A FRIDAY. And what else? The 1st friday after the end of the month? And waht else? Higher, Robert sees higher. And who has been caught with his pants down around....<BR/><BR/>No. I stick to my original and unbroken position. This weeks data is still inside the noise. Jack should wait before bowing to his masters.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152305418418433622006-07-07T13:50:00.000-07:002006-07-07T13:50:00.000-07:00Sacramento, Seattle, San Diego, Phoenix, Riverside...<I>Sacramento, Seattle, San Diego, Phoenix, Riverside, Orange County and Los Angeles ALL show drops in inventory in the latest counts.</I><BR/><BR/>Not so fast, Jack. <BR/><BR/>Sacramento:<BR/>6/30: 16,505<BR/>7/03: 16,341<BR/>7/07: 16,509<BR/><BR/>Orange Co:<BR/>6/30: 16,692<BR/>7/04: 16,629<BR/>7/07: 16,723<BR/><BR/>LA:<BR/>6/30: 42,317<BR/>7/04: 41,984<BR/>7/07: 42,588<BR/><BR/>http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/<BR/><BR/>Better luck next time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152286727574664692006-07-07T08:38:00.000-07:002006-07-07T08:38:00.000-07:00Anon, I thought my two weeks for data offer was fa...Anon, I thought my two weeks for data offer was fair. In part it is fair because any rise in inventory one week from now would only be a boomerang effect of this last week of exceptional conditions. You are correct that individual rises and declines at this level are small compared to the trend. Indeed inventory need not change one iota for the trend to continue if sales fall. There's going to variation in that as well. <BR/><BR/>Jack "me off" was essentially kicked off Ben's Blog not for his positions but his disrespect. I know some of these discussions can appear to get heated but it may also be a function of the medium. I "go off" on Prop 13 and transit and as you note Oxnard but I don't hate them. BTW, use the search box on OXnard specific to this blog, I've written a lot. I also know the entire council by first name and know what they like to drink. I've got all the inside dirt.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152271196562696132006-07-07T04:19:00.000-07:002006-07-07T04:19:00.000-07:00What is the point of arguing over one detail and ...What is the point of arguing over one detail and especially staking any pride on it? Does inventory rise or decline absolutely have to be relevant? <BR/><BR/>Credit goes to you for being polite with Mr. Meoff <BR/><BR/>It is interesting that there are so many people from both camps angry about the Real Estate Market and people who participate in it one way or another. REALLY ANGRY! The are some real mean bears lurking on Ben's blog. Not a good forum for discourteous bulls. It would be nice to have a blog where entering one's real name to the post was a requirement. With all this ANGER it is kind of scary. <BR/>By the way I grew up in Ventura County. It cracks me up when you dismiss Oxnard.I lived there during high school.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152241272884164152006-07-06T20:01:00.000-07:002006-07-06T20:01:00.000-07:00Seven days will be enough to discredit your premis...Seven days will be enough to discredit your premise. It will still need to be compared month over month. <BR/><BR/>You last 5 posts have been unbidden personally hostile. This is my blog. If I want abuse I can pick my own terms. Hint.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152223770070394772006-07-06T15:09:00.000-07:002006-07-06T15:09:00.000-07:00You cannot use week over week data. No, let me co...You cannot use week over week data. No, let me correct that; I cannot use week over week because I know better an for me to try would be dishonest. Clearly you never studied Fourier. Thus in your lack of fineness (that's a math joke) you can and will insist on doing exactly what the warmists and peakinese do; use assymetrical and error prone and variable measurements to define trend well within range. Like I said do that and you can discover anything; global warming, peak oil, falling inventory.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152215758458795032006-07-06T12:55:00.000-07:002006-07-06T12:55:00.000-07:00Jack, I've explained the details. You disagree, f...Jack, I've explained the details. You disagree, fine. All we do now and wait two weeks right? The reason for the synchronized "decline" is because in an amazing coincidence the month of June ended at the same time for each and in another coincidence they all had a holiday week and in another coincidence none have seen a first Friday after the start of the month. Wow, coincidences abound.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152204485679641112006-07-06T09:48:00.000-07:002006-07-06T09:48:00.000-07:00Jack, every single location you mention is up sign...Jack, every single location you mention is up significantly month over month. The numbers you cite are 4-8 days all straddling the end of the month and before the next friday and include a long holiday weekend. Listings expire at he end of the month. What you think you see is noise in the reporting method. <BR/><BR/>Most assuradly listings will eventually decline. In fact that is almost certain to happen roughly Oct as discouraged sellers delist. Not only am I "brave" enough to admit it, I fully expect it to happen. Doesn't take much bravery to admit what I already have mapped out. <BR/><BR/>We cannot have a soft landing. That chance passed last year. We need to find a market clearing price and when we do that will also drop inventories.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152198305676881512006-07-06T08:05:00.000-07:002006-07-06T08:05:00.000-07:00I said "statisically insignificant." That is a te...I said "statisically insignificant." That is a term of art for mathematicians. The MLS listings are periodically updated, weekends and holidays affect when inventory is listed, the reporting carries a large amount of both noise and error. The number of listings also hetrodynes, feeds back on itself such that sometimes people rush to market and at other times they hold back for strategic selling reasons. Buyers (who also impact inventory) do the same for their own reasons. <BR/><BR/>There, understand now? I doubt it since it is in your best interests to lower the the quality of these pages with your deliberatly provocative comments. Oh, and just because I see a steep drop this year and slow declines going out several years doesn't mean I'm predicting doom. These things need to happen and I smell opportunity. Let's take the level of exchange up a notch here or move it to where quality is not such a concern to the blogmaster.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1152127993635692542006-07-05T12:33:00.000-07:002006-07-05T12:33:00.000-07:00Cote is wrong when he predicts rising inventories ...<I>Cote is wrong when he predicts rising inventories through this year and next. Checked the housing inventory tracking blog today and lo and behold inventories are falling in major metropolitan areas including Phoenix, OC, Riverside, CA, etc.</I><BR/><BR/>Phoenix 6/30: 50,974 7/04: 50,264<BR/><BR/>Statistically insignificant. Nice try Jack.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151900470526880592006-07-02T21:21:00.000-07:002006-07-02T21:21:00.000-07:00I look forward to the new post.The way I see it, p...I look forward to the new post.<BR/><BR/>The way I see it, politicians take the position of promoting a specific immature technology (flavor of the month) or concern (global warming causes...) rather than address the underlying issue. If a long-term coherent energy plan were formed, there'd be little need to be distracted by fads or arguing the impact of CO2. (You are right; water is the most prominent GHG even when considering its radiation forcing value. The majority of the vapor does not remain in the atmosphere very long though, so it isn't considered forcing... more of a feedback.)<BR/><BR/>Meaningful improvements can be made using mature technologies to boost energy efficiency. These can be implemented in nearly every link of the chain: from end products to energy distribution/production. Even better, why not run a conservation campaign? (it's been a few decades.) Hell, smoking was severely limited in the US with what, a 10-20 year program... it turned from being cool to being ostracized? <BR/><BR/>In my opinion, 'new' technologies and theories often lead to very loose money and almost no accountability. Misguided funding and research, swindled investors, scams, bad policy, and little advancement. Certainly, research should be funded and promoted, but politicians/funding agencies seem to put all their eggs in one basket - risky future research - rather than implement upgrades along the way.<BR/><BR/>No, I do not believe that we will run out of oil for a long, long time, nor do I think that we will be limited by our ability to produce electricity in the foreseeable future. That said, improving our energy policy would be very beneficial (economically likely first and foremost, but also geopolitically and environmentally). We could spend our money more efficiently than often chasing misconceptions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151886604682149952006-07-02T17:30:00.000-07:002006-07-02T17:30:00.000-07:00Anon 8:44,Yes, the 0.8% is an annual average plus ...Anon 8:44,<BR/><BR/>Yes, the 0.8% is an annual average plus bias to the likely recent average of carbon in the atmosphere. Easily an order of magnitude below measurement error and another cumulative (additive not multiplier we think) order below natural variability. A 0.8% positive bias impact really honestly and for true just isn't a knowable value. CO2 is infinitely soluable in air so are almost everything GHG except H2O(v) and H2O(w). Those last two are 70% (we think) of all GHGs. <BR/><BR/>I agree that energy is the issue/problem/focus. Call me an optomist but energy ain't never been a problem before. Think about everything just a tiny bit out of our grasp; superconduction, catalytic H2, polysolar, low temp low pressure fusion, gravitics, inertial dampening, the list is endless. We know how "stupid" it was to chop down tress, why is this any different? We can and will do better but not by stepping backwards. <BR/><BR/>oh and I appreciate the praise. My style and content tend to attract negative responses and I'm only human. I'll start a thread in a few days on these subjects and revive some old ones about transportation.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151855070319334642006-07-02T08:44:00.000-07:002006-07-02T08:44:00.000-07:00RC:I was reading your posts on patrick about globa...RC:<BR/><BR/>I was reading your posts on patrick about global climate change, specifically looking at our calculation wrt fossil fuel/cement contributions. As I read the data, 775 GtC are in the atmosphere already; the number is not an annual flux (which is much lower). The 6.2 GtC per annum flux from fossil fuel is adding to the atmospheric reservoir (although the net amount added is only about 3.8GtC/annum). In fact, from the graphic it appears that fossil fuels <I>are</I> responsible for the increase in C in the atmosphere, something that I did not believe had been proven at all.<BR/><BR/>The above is somewhat of an aside. I agree that the problem is not understood well enough and is basically political. No one really knows how much of an effect CO2 has on global warming. An increase in CO2 in the oceans could in some cases lead to global cooling (although with a pH change as a consequence).<BR/><BR/>The real issue is energy, but a comprehensive plan would be longer than the timescale of politics, so neither party wants to address it. They'd rather muddy the water with claims about suspect global warming causes. Hydrogen economy? Too bad hydrogen is hard to make, hard to contain, and is an indirect greenhouse gas to boot.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I always enjoy reading your perspectives. Public transportation efficiency posts were enlightening. Keep it up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151730754263730682006-06-30T22:12:00.000-07:002006-06-30T22:12:00.000-07:00Sweet Jesus, Robert, are you really deteriorating ...Sweet Jesus, Robert, are you really deteriorating that rapidly? Who was I quoting you doddering, slobbering, toothless old colostomy bag?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151636806271741962006-06-29T20:06:00.000-07:002006-06-29T20:06:00.000-07:00Things seem to be tracking pretty tight to my scen...Things seem to be tracking pretty tight to my scenario. Which wrongs deserve apologies?Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1151555872232380242006-06-28T21:37:00.000-07:002006-06-28T21:37:00.000-07:00Hey, JD:I have my suspicions but who exactly are y...Hey, JD:<BR/><BR/>I have my suspicions but who exactly are you addressing?Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.com