tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post115488114346456381..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Inflection PointRob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1155020309373789552006-08-07T23:58:00.000-07:002006-08-07T23:58:00.000-07:00Come for the bloviation, stay for the numbers, com...Come for the bloviation, stay for the numbers, comment on the posteriors. Hmmm, the magical combination?Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1155014355856816772006-08-07T22:19:00.000-07:002006-08-07T22:19:00.000-07:00Nice britches. I'm sure the other 199 agree with m...Nice britches. I'm sure the other 199 agree with me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1155006428157452792006-08-07T20:07:00.000-07:002006-08-07T20:07:00.000-07:00Robert,Opportunities, yes. The trick is seeing wh...Robert,<BR/><BR/>Opportunities, yes. The trick is seeing what is the real underlying value. Looking at, say, Las Vegas, one sees a certain value point based on the incomes and demographics. But what if you pull the trigger on an investment property in Vegas that drops to the point where it pencils out, only to find that the incomes were artificially inflated by MEW and construction. Keep your data fresh is my warning to the would-be vulture investor.<BR/><BR/>I like to think I see the intrinsic value of things pretty well, but I am hopefully wise enough to know that I should be at least as careful about the "good" deals as I am about the average deals.<BR/><BR/>By the way, excellent discussion you started on Ben's blog re. Buffalo. I've been trying to get traction on that subject for a while now, and it's good to see other people getting that information. I think people need to see for themselves what the long term economic costs of being the "it" market are. Young families are the lifeblood, and expensive markets decay when they don't provide them opportunities. Provided, it may take Buffalo coming to a town near them for the reality to reach the mainstream, but that could happen sooner than we think.incessant_dinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16112787494988405076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1154996829589042572006-08-07T17:27:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:27:00.000-07:00MEW is mortgage equity withdrawl. Loans against t...MEW is mortgage equity withdrawl. Loans against the value of the house. The problem is that it isn't even distributed. With like $19T in equity and 12T in mortgage indebtedness A hit of $7-$9T like I expect should only represent an normal overcorrection of a commodity bubble. Trouble is While I'm gonna "lose" $600k in "equity" I'll still have $600k equity "left over." No, the people with 80/20 loans are going to be faced with NEGATIVE equity. This isn't like regular debt. You didn't buy anything unlike regular debt which even if you wasted it you got the Bermuda vacation. Think of this as "Super High Individual Taxation." These SHITheads are gonna be paying inflation plus 4% while those with viable liquid assets will be collecting inflation plus 2%.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1154972128520409682006-08-07T10:35:00.000-07:002006-08-07T10:35:00.000-07:00What is MEW? Mortgage equity withdrawal?Anyway, co...What is MEW? Mortgage equity withdrawal?<BR/><BR/>Anyway, compared to 1981 and 1990, one factor I see as different is the creation and dramatic expansion of the mortgage-backed securities market. If that market is indeed built on a house of sand, it will be ugly.<BR/><BR/>You know the curse about living in interesting times?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1154929113112340412006-08-06T22:38:00.000-07:002006-08-06T22:38:00.000-07:00Thank you Lindsey. About 200 people read for ever...Thank you Lindsey. About 200 people read for every person who replies. I sometimes feel a little like I booked too large a concert hall. I need to clarify. I am not worried about a recession. We did fine in the last 20-40 recessions, the next one should be no different. I guess the worry is that this one will become something more. The usual something more used to be called a depression. For good and ill we've moved past that. Which would you prefer; a US worker or two Chinese workers? This isn't a fair question is it? Neither is the question; "will we have a recession or depression?"Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1154909623135614682006-08-06T17:13:00.000-07:002006-08-06T17:13:00.000-07:00I'm really liking your analysis. You seem to cover...I'm really liking your analysis. <BR/><BR/>You seem to cover the all the housing bases with this one, but I am significantly more worried about the recession than you are. I think you've got the economics about right (at least it sounds good to me, what I would term an interested and educated layman) but the social upheaval is another matter.<BR/><BR/>High unemployment and a lack of jobs offering a decent wage are going to push a lot of people into a place they never expected. I don't expect chaos, but there will be more than enough ugliness to go around. <BR/><BR/>I've got a feeling the divorce and smalltime criminal lawyers are going to be awfully busy.<BR/><BR/>LindseyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com