tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post2668174159179766083..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Census Incences Some of UsRob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger109125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-29315949348224323372018-04-03T14:54:22.226-07:002018-04-03T14:54:22.226-07:00That's my porn nameThat's my porn nameCinco-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070836718703358881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-6531767720611875952018-04-02T15:49:31.710-07:002018-04-02T15:49:31.710-07:00Somebody doesn't like you?Somebody doesn't like you?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-47350283158343739192018-04-02T15:46:59.808-07:002018-04-02T15:46:59.808-07:00We shall talk more of employment.
Yes, Reddit i...We shall talk more of employment. <br /><br />Yes, Reddit is wonky today.<br /><br />New post with an eyepopping number. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32232463168698532852018-04-02T15:31:07.472-07:002018-04-02T15:31:07.472-07:00Or, are you really Fearless Fosdick?Or, are you really Fearless Fosdick?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-43174848615505226772018-04-02T15:28:39.310-07:002018-04-02T15:28:39.310-07:00Me too. I hope Tanya is having a glorious time in ...Me too. I hope Tanya is having a glorious time in heaven howling with laughter<br />Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-83427530112953855652018-04-02T15:26:29.486-07:002018-04-02T15:26:29.486-07:00I never went there.I never went there.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30110404774728793642018-04-02T15:12:11.008-07:002018-04-02T15:12:11.008-07:00Anyone having a problem with Reddit HCN ?
My comme...Anyone having a problem with Reddit HCN ?<br />My comments disappear immediately after they are posted. Is this a new feature?EngineerJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00976582691547539645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-8316388244322474072018-04-02T14:59:31.819-07:002018-04-02T14:59:31.819-07:00Buffet plays both sides of the street. He didn'...Buffet plays both sides of the street. He didn't get where he is by playing nice. It's just a game to him.LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-71147087721901098652018-04-02T14:58:14.291-07:002018-04-02T14:58:14.291-07:00Firemane, In conclusion we both agree that the dat...Firemane, In conclusion we both agree that the data will mean something even imperfect but the average Joe takes it in a twisted way delivered in a propaganda fashion. Participation rate is not my idea of particularly good data but it is all we have. Household income is a way of the past and should be done on a job by job bases or person. It is fun to watch T gloat about U-3 just like O did. It is IMO U-3 is a good piece of data when a recession is in full swing and not trimmed by people leaving the work force like it has been for some time. I knew nothing until I started hanging around CR, What a great time it was. I still have a long way to go. Good chat.LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-44681663216391191582018-04-02T14:52:12.243-07:002018-04-02T14:52:12.243-07:00It's just a flesh wouldIt's just a flesh wouldCinco-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070836718703358881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-3529166966415409202018-04-02T14:44:11.814-07:002018-04-02T14:44:11.814-07:00Down a mere
459.Down a mere<br />459.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-90958193193974762892018-04-02T14:42:17.600-07:002018-04-02T14:42:17.600-07:00True. Maybe I just like to see big numbers. 16 ji...True. Maybe I just like to see big numbers. 16 jillion.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-28981566809241618782018-04-02T14:00:13.915-07:002018-04-02T14:00:13.915-07:00>I wonder how much Buffet lost?
Does it really...>I wonder how much Buffet lost?<br /><br />Does it really matter ?<br />Buffett's net worth is so far beyond what any normal person has, that it's meaningless. <br />EngineerJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00976582691547539645noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-52174049747615274632018-04-02T13:47:05.361-07:002018-04-02T13:47:05.361-07:00I wonder how much Buffet lost?I wonder how much Buffet lost?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-34809277805916589902018-04-02T13:24:56.121-07:002018-04-02T13:24:56.121-07:00Tejon Ranch at the moment and Home in a few hours....Tejon Ranch at the moment and Home in a few hours. New post then. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-48674718872869181922018-04-02T13:02:58.699-07:002018-04-02T13:02:58.699-07:00New post?New post?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32223886984164849752018-04-02T13:02:34.913-07:002018-04-02T13:02:34.913-07:00Dow down a mere 459.Dow down a mere 459.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-28098896474513993622018-04-02T13:00:09.901-07:002018-04-02T13:00:09.901-07:00Error bars. You explain every month at that measu...Error bars. You explain every month at that measurement are never perfect, so this is the best we can do. Like hurricane error bars which the weatherpersons explain every day when there is a hurricane that the line down the Middle is not exactly where it's going to go. Tbis is the best you can expect which is not quite correct either.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-59483290901511220292018-04-02T12:43:40.974-07:002018-04-02T12:43:40.974-07:00LBD,
Completely agree that 'living wage' ...LBD,<br /><br />Completely agree that 'living wage' is a major issue - and median wage numbers don't capture that as well as quintiles. I'm just saying that castigating U3 based on wage anything is sort of like decrying batting average for not capturing home runs in any meaningful way. It wasn't any better (or worse) at capturing the economic picture in 1970 or 1990 than it is today. <br /><br />Doesn't mean we cannot look for better stats - (median $/week) or OPS. <br /><br />My point is that U3 wasn't any better at capturing the whole economic picture back when the economic tiers were much closer. <br /><br />I'm all for looking for better statistics that help clear the picture of where things are. But, in most cases, if you start a new series, you have no historical trend data - so determining what is 'good' or 'bad' is impossible. We only have U-6 since 1992, and to date, it's still only been used as a political plastic bat with which to smack opponents with - falsely claiming it as the "real" unemployment rate. In "some" cases, it's possible to go back to old source material and create a new series that also goes backward in time, but those are rare - and tend to require a massive amount of research into pre-computer era references. (It was a massive undertaking getting ALL the MLB games into an historical database, and for most of that time, we're talking 20 teams playing 154 games a year.)<br /><br />But, being FOR new stats that can clear the picture requires being wary of new (or old) stats that only cloud it. At some point, you latched onto P-rate as having value. For me, when P-rate suddenly became a major talking point in the news, I went and did my own research, so I could understand the data WITHOUT the political blathering from either side. That's when I discovered the long term male/female historical trends - which to date (except for Calculated Risk) I've never seen mentioned by press or pundits. And CR actually added his commentary regarding those trends after I sent him links to the data showing the reality.<br /><br />As for Joe Q. Public's understanding -- they don't want understanding. They want simple. U3 is simple -- how many people who want a job, have a job? That's simple. Same reason batting average is still the most common stat displayed in baseball 30 years after the move to far superior stats began and 20 years after they gained traction within MLB. <br /><br />You want a wage stat? Here's one.<br /><br />In 1957, a full time minimum wage job generated 40% of the median household income of the day. Today it is about 28%. But female participation was still well under 50% at the time, so median household income in 1957 was 'mostly' single earner income. Another area where cultural change severely complicates the historic picture. The primary 'wage' data in press is "household income", which is vastly different depending on whether you're talking 1 or 2 incomes. So, how do they adjust the data to account for the shift from 30% female working age participation to 70%? They don't. Which makes historical use of median household income changes laughable even before bothering to look at changes within quintiles. <br /><br />It REQUIRES understanding of the history of many moving parts to fairly judge the efficacy of any statistic. Sadly, we are a nation that is far more apt to latch onto whatever "truth" the pundits of "our" political bent spew than attempting to find any truth ourselves.Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-86445880635672478442018-04-02T12:17:00.171-07:002018-04-02T12:17:00.171-07:00Which is why I proposed subsidizing moves. W. Va ...Which is why I proposed subsidizing moves. W. Va has been hopeless a long time. Coal is not coming back. If it's needed 200 years from now, well we can reopen the mines then<br /> It is beautiful there<br /><br />Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-52637488947564988732018-04-02T12:08:35.687-07:002018-04-02T12:08:35.687-07:00Regarding employment being local. BLS does provid...Regarding employment being local. BLS does provide state by state employment data:<br /><br />http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/03/bls-unemployment-rates-lower-in-7.html<br /><br />And almost half the states are at series low (series in this case begins in 1976). <br /><br />https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5paqWzO5xz8/WrUWPKcgsbI/AAAAAAAAuS8/3UWpkyz1RtgESR7QEMVCCMGtBQLTstTygCLcBGAs/s1600/StateUnemploy1Feb2018.PNG<br /><br />Except for Alaska, every state is under 6%. <br /><br />The problem with jobs as unemployment nears so called "full employment" is that the closer you get, the "less attractive" the remaining unemployed are. If you're among the last to get a job, chances are good that there is 'something' about you that is keeping it that way. Maybe you have a spotty work record ... a criminal past ... maybe you're just an awful interview. Or, perhaps you're a competent blow mold injection machine operator, in a state where all those jobs are taken, and you don't want to move. Maybe you're simply pricing yourself out of the market. <br /><br />But moving states to get a job is a ***BIG*** deal - especially for someone without excess cash laying around, (which given the saving habits in the US, is nearly everyone). I actually got to see 2nd hand the downside results of a couple that moved from Virginia to NC chasing a job --- only to get down-sized 6 months after arrival. Then they stick it out too long looking for more work where they had just moved, (that year long lease impacting their decision, of course).<br /><br />They moved AFTER they ended up homeless - living in the back of their Mini-Cooper, and snagging entry level jobs in Raleigh (after High Point didn't pan out). They lucked out huge by getting free room and board for a year while they got back on their feet from a stranger playing Good Samaritan. <br /><br />I think many people in power (business and government) are too far removed from the reality of living paycheck to paycheck to appreciate how much people lean on "local" friends and family when changing locations. Last time I job hunted in a new city, I had the luxury of crashing on a friend' couch while looking. That alone seriously changes the risk equation of moving. <br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-37638206061772041032018-04-02T11:56:55.743-07:002018-04-02T11:56:55.743-07:00Humm? no stat is perfect then miss representing is...Humm? no stat is perfect then miss representing is political seems to qualify as twisted. IMO In a economist world it might makes sense but to Joe on the street U-3 doesn't even exist as he doesn't understand there are 6 levels. Oh rejoice everyone is working and must be making money to live happily. Not even close. We have low employment here but wages on a median scale have a big spread. Labor shortage here is the low wage/short hours positions. Not my idea of a healthy economy. The Kleptoctrats control the money and grant themselves tax money to build fast food and hotel business on the interstate requiring low paid part time employees. We are now in to the second year of a local recession due to their actions. IMO.<br /><br /> LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-23521823999322637262018-04-02T11:15:56.007-07:002018-04-02T11:15:56.007-07:00Dow down 701Dow down 701Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-51705378028452371372018-04-02T11:09:10.824-07:002018-04-02T11:09:10.824-07:00What can be done to blast them out of West Va?What can be done to blast them out of West Va?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-40123427330085186422018-04-02T11:03:32.509-07:002018-04-02T11:03:32.509-07:00Dow way down. Dow way down. Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.com