tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post519797878781702360..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Place Your Bets 2Rob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-16156146536608203782007-05-25T20:40:00.000-07:002007-05-25T20:40:00.000-07:00FWTW: I suggested the Dow would go up or down tod...FWTW: I suggested the Dow would go up or down today by .5%.<BR/><BR/>It closed +.49%.<BR/><BR/>Not such a bad guess.<BR/><BR/>I know, I know. I hedged by saying it could go down by as much - but that's good planning.<BR/><BR/>If you bet $10 on red, a good strategy is to put some money down on black as a hedge.<BR/><BR/>You won't get rich this way, but you sure won't go broke.<BR/><BR/>Cheers!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-47714232213235221492007-05-25T11:24:00.000-07:002007-05-25T11:24:00.000-07:00We Are HEREThe above link is to the most notable s...<A HREF="http://www.belowthecrowd.com/archive/2007/05/we_are_here_1.html" REL="nofollow">We Are HERE</A><BR/><BR/>The above link is to the most notable slide from a 64 slide deck in which Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital detailed why he is short the mortgage insurers.<BR/><BR/>If anybody wants the full presentation, btc at [my domain name].BelowTheCrowdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16552438597126368661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-75122839407309521722007-05-25T11:20:00.000-07:002007-05-25T11:20:00.000-07:00@Huck F,LOL, no worries, you are always credible o...@Huck F,<BR/>LOL, no worries, you are always credible on the WWW, especially at EN!<BR/>Have a Memorable Memorial Weekend.<BR/>LOL again.<BR/>TTFNFlyingMonkeyWarriorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01770643973751363527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-81007413837421068102007-05-25T10:37:00.000-07:002007-05-25T10:37:00.000-07:00I am clearly an idiot. Why did I suggest BP Amoco ...I am clearly an idiot. <BR/><BR/>Why did I suggest BP Amoco wasn't hitting the environmentally friendly mark? There's no way I can convince you (or anyone) that I meant Exxon Mobil, but it's worth a shot.<BR/><BR/>BP Amoco is one of a handful of oil/energy companies to land in the portfolios of many socially responsive mutual funds.<BR/><BR/>Any credibility I had has been shattered -- and that's assuming I had any credibility to begin with.<BR/><BR/>Cutting out early sounds like a good idea. It's time to make it so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-92209404500195653572007-05-25T10:30:00.000-07:002007-05-25T10:30:00.000-07:00and not necessarily up.--------Yep and Thank you, ...and not necessarily up.<BR/>--------<BR/>Yep and Thank you, Huck Finn.<BR/>I am in the Stock Market Industry and it was so slow we closed at noon e.s.t. today. Didn't make me mad.<BR/>BP is heavy into solar and they are helping my company (BP engineers, solar panels etc.) which is my private deal, to power clean (injectable clean) water systems with solar modules custom built for schools in the third world.<BR/>Ted Turner just dumped big dollars into solar, which you probably know.<BR/>Sexy emerging market, Green Tech.<BR/>Well, ttfn. Time to play.FlyingMonkeyWarriorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01770643973751363527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-28387652641079820292007-05-25T10:10:00.000-07:002007-05-25T10:10:00.000-07:00I love Fridays before a holiday. Ssssllllloooooww...I love Fridays before a holiday. Sssslllllooooowwww days - a bit of a breather from normally hectic days.<BR/><BR/>@ FMW<BR/><BR/>I totally agree with you regarding the next bubble opportunity landing in the "green" arena. Seems every company is pointing out their environmentally friendly practices, from BP Amoco (FAIL!) to Starbucks.<BR/><BR/>I also agree with you that ethanol ain't going anywhere - it's expensive to produce, uses a lot of fossil fuels to create and increases demand on a shrinking water supply. At least companies are trying to find alternative fuel sources, though.<BR/><BR/>Interesting point about a possible reduction in rates to alleviate debt load - it's one I hadn't considered. I still think rates will be flat to close the year, but your suggestion adds a new wrinkle to the possibility of a move - and not necessarily up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-18006941777818429772007-05-25T09:53:00.000-07:002007-05-25T09:53:00.000-07:00The big worry is the CHINA Stock market bubble com...The big worry is the CHINA Stock market bubble combined with a three day weekend, I reckon.<BR/>nuff said.FlyingMonkeyWarriorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01770643973751363527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-31326958332264212232007-05-25T09:52:00.000-07:002007-05-25T09:52:00.000-07:00Huck Finn I agree with you regarding Tech and I ag...Huck Finn <BR/>I agree with you regarding Tech and I agree with ITULIP, the next bubble and emerging market is anything 'green' that helps us reduce oil consumption. Alternative Constuction to help with hurricans sustainable buildings and alternative power such as Geo thermal and Solar. Ethonal ain't going no where, imo, and again the dollar has to drop to lighten Fed Gov debt service not to help housing.<BR/>Fed Bank will hold or reduce rates over the long term.<BR/> Just my 2 cents.FlyingMonkeyWarriorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01770643973751363527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-58836197098275438732007-05-25T08:57:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:57:00.000-07:00Rob: I think the untold story in housing these da...Rob: I think the untold story in housing these days is the "bridge loan" situation--people who have bought a house (often a newly built one) but who have yet to sell the old house. There are a LOT of people in this situation; they've been keeping the homebuilding numbers up, but they're a big part of the massive overhang in unsold used homes. When the finances for people "between homes" begin to fall apart (and many of them are neither subprime nor alt-A), things are going to get (even more) nasty.Peripheral Visionaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02489447120517274000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30827605107255642692007-05-25T08:49:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:49:00.000-07:00As the new kid on the block, and entering the room...<I>As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?</I><BR/><BR/>I'm getting such a kick out of Greenspan's comments - it seems he's hellbent to derail Bernanke's efforts.<BR/><BR/>After years of mumbling and offering cryptic comments as the Fed chairman, our pal Al is shouting from the rooftops now.<BR/><BR/>"33% chance of recession by year-end. Did you hear me? <B>ONE-IN-THREE CHANCE!!</B> Woo hoooo!!!"<BR/><BR/>He's probably right, but I'll bet Ben is in contact with Fox Sports as I type about a possible Celebrity Boxing Match...to the death.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-49157178782901837802007-05-25T08:47:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:47:00.000-07:00PV,Drilling down deeper into yesterday's surprisin...PV,<BR/>Drilling down deeper into yesterday's surprising uptick in new home sales we find that the sales weren't sales but a 35% jump in pre-orders for homes not yet started. Yes, thay are booked as "sales" in the morh they are contracted and no, if they fall out they will not show up in inventory nor will they subtract from sales in the month of redaction.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-84177993647902096202007-05-25T08:43:00.001-07:002007-05-25T08:43:00.001-07:00Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflati...<I>Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflation</I><BR/><BR/>As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?<BR/><BR/>Rates are going up, up , up...and stocks are going down! Well, maybe not today, but eventually.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-7474157722081813852007-05-25T08:43:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:43:00.000-07:00Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflati...<I>Bernanke has stated his primary concern is inflation</I><BR/><BR/>As the new kid on the block, and entering the room after a long and crazy party, is there really any doubt that he will cause a lot of pain, cleaning it up?<BR/><BR/>Rates are going up, up , up...and stocks are going down! Well, maybe not today, but eventually.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-38946493509071599582007-05-25T08:39:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:39:00.000-07:00Yikes, 4.2MM inventory in homes--is that a new rec...Yikes, 4.2MM inventory in homes--is that a new record? 8.4 months' supply, and that's the *national* average, what's the local supply in the bubble markets looking like? Months' supply is up 13.5% m-o-m, up 37.7% y-o-y! Home builder price cuts are absolutely killing the secondary market . . . <BR/><BR/>Prices down 2% in the West y-o-y, and again that's the *average*, what are prices doing in LV, SD, Phoenix?<BR/><BR/>Oh well, stock market higher on bad news--itsallgood(tm)!Peripheral Visionaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02489447120517274000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-29754501215360446782007-05-25T08:21:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:21:00.000-07:00How many hundred points will the DJIA fall tomorro...<I>How many hundred points will the DJIA fall tomorrow?</I><BR/><BR/>None oh prescient one. Got any more great tips for us Rob Rong?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-18102281031962408312007-05-25T08:14:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:14:00.000-07:00I'm sure it is incomplete - they have strong brand...I'm sure it is incomplete - they have strong brand loyalty, their product line is innovative, they have strong cash flows, etc...<BR/><BR/>So Apple is probably a bad example in the near term, but it's still part of the technology sector...which makes me nervous.<BR/><BR/>People may make be making money hand over fist on Apple right now, but I'm not one of them. <BR/><BR/>I'm a contrarian - and am always very early on my technology bets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32105351609242230952007-05-25T08:10:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:10:00.000-07:00Hey! I got the picture. It's "low-hanging fruit"Hey! I got the picture. It's "low-hanging fruit"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-37897541435916430552007-05-25T08:05:00.000-07:002007-05-25T08:05:00.000-07:00I think your analysis of Apple is incomplete, huck...I think your analysis of Apple is incomplete, huck, but I'll save the long version of why for the weekend.Sprezzaturahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00154324593024175660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-60632249362257195032007-05-25T07:45:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:45:00.000-07:00but man did it turn into a blahg in recent weeks.J...<I>but man did it turn into a blahg in recent weeks.</I><BR/><BR/>Just to clear things up, it's Casey's site that has turned into a blahg in recent weeks. Yours is still a fun one to start my day with.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-80413094274606300102007-05-25T07:42:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:42:00.000-07:00Feel free, Rob. I'm sure that I'm in the minority...Feel free, Rob. I'm sure that I'm in the minority with my opinion, but I'm used it by now.<BR/><BR/>It's kind of nice to read posts other than the tired Casey saga. It was fun when he was actually dealing with foreclosure and "how am I going to pay my bills?" issues, but man did it turn into a blahg in recent weeks.<BR/><BR/>This looks like a nice alternative.<BR/><BR/>I'm biased, of course.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-31944773995482862532007-05-25T07:39:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:39:00.000-07:00Huck, can I use your comments as a top level post ...Huck, can I use your comments as a top level post to discuss Apple this weekend?Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-66617975087661642442007-05-25T07:37:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:37:00.000-07:00I'm not sure if it is anti-tech bias you are expre...I'm not sure if it is anti-tech bias you are expressing. I remember before the tech bubble I think it was Bed Stein explaining that "tech investing" was 5 spectacular successes, 10 good performers and 85 complete failures. The returns looked en masse to be market average or slightly better. The secret was being able to weed out even a few of the failures more than any magical picking of the rare winner. <BR/><BR/>I agree that tech is going to have follow with dividends and not some cheat inside information one time payouts either.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-58254853082345489692007-05-25T07:35:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:35:00.000-07:00I forgot a piece for the above comment.There may b...I forgot a piece for the above comment.<BR/><BR/><I>There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.</I><BR/><BR/>More product and more features is an expense that cuts into profits eventually. The more you offer and the less you charge for it, the higher your sales numbers. Trouble is, it cuts into profits.<BR/><BR/>Apple is enjoying its (near-)monopolistic state of iPod, but they're going to have to keep rolling out new products that people will upgrade to (iPhone) or they will have to cut costs to attract new buyers.<BR/><BR/>What happens if/when their new products no longer look like they're worth throwing another $500 toward? How often will people get rid of their new-last-year iPods for the new-this-year-but-spendy versions?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-67710098137539049132007-05-25T07:29:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:29:00.000-07:00Is tech going to ever participate?I work in financ...<I>Is tech going to ever participate?</I><BR/><BR/>I work in finance as an investment analyst. People love technology and always look and hope for strong returns in the tech sectors. The 90s were awesome; when the tech bubble burst, it really hurt.<BR/><BR/>As the old saying goes, however, time heals all wounds. Since equities have done so well over the last few years, people are starting to forget the pain of '00 (and '02). There are a lot of people waiting for that big tech rally.<BR/><BR/>It may happen at some point, but I personally don't think tech is a long-term winner. There may be phenomenal gains for companies like Google and Apple, but the thing about tech: people always want more product/features at a lower cost.<BR/><BR/>For every Apple and Google of the tech world, there are thousands of dot.com companies that didn't make it.<BR/><BR/>People hate my anti-tech bias. And, really, I guess I can't blame them. I just love dividends and strong cash flows.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-45556306415013676572007-05-25T07:15:00.000-07:002007-05-25T07:15:00.000-07:00I was thinking I could get more reasoned comments ...I was thinking I could get more reasoned comments with an extreme possibility that was contrary to momentum and sentiment. <BR/><BR/>Is tech going to ever participate?Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.com