tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post6864796329741209247..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: Montecito Mudslide CostsRob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-13891185527188748152018-04-04T15:36:24.675-07:002018-04-04T15:36:24.675-07:00Well, now we have a nutso female shooter. Well, now we have a nutso female shooter. Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-28081302926070826402018-04-04T15:36:18.564-07:002018-04-04T15:36:18.564-07:00New post. New post. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-56517806502258620712018-04-04T15:34:05.165-07:002018-04-04T15:34:05.165-07:00Profits are supposed to be up.Profits are supposed to be up.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-66666897993443459382018-04-04T10:04:41.047-07:002018-04-04T10:04:41.047-07:00Yep back up again.Yep back up again.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-40299510402124302462018-04-04T09:47:52.222-07:002018-04-04T09:47:52.222-07:00Apple and Ford were supposed to get whacked by Chi...Apple and Ford were supposed to get whacked by Chinese retaliation yet both stocks are higher midday. This is a Tariff Tantrum, not market action. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-62674061635320537472018-04-04T08:31:43.947-07:002018-04-04T08:31:43.947-07:00367 off last I checked.367 off last I checked.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-36150367170224591762018-04-04T06:34:16.050-07:002018-04-04T06:34:16.050-07:00Good morning!
On the run again this AM. GB on the...Good morning!<br /><br />On the run again this AM. GB on the way out in the next week or so. More Fun. :(LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-6150456008690802342018-04-04T05:30:41.923-07:002018-04-04T05:30:41.923-07:00ADP sez 240k more people were employed. Isn't...ADP sez 240k more people were employed. Isn't that terrible and or meaningless?<br />?<br />(Still needs error bars.)Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32473261967211867432018-04-04T04:16:59.395-07:002018-04-04T04:16:59.395-07:00 Good
Morning gloomsters Good <br />Morning gloomstersLawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-14744542077744897362018-04-03T20:25:09.697-07:002018-04-03T20:25:09.697-07:00Employment is like the skyscraper index... everyth...Employment is like the skyscraper index... everything looks best right before the fall.<br />---<br />Meaningful rain not a problem here. ;-)TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-65578079379883603332018-04-03T19:10:20.967-07:002018-04-03T19:10:20.967-07:00Talking heads on TV said that we may get meaningfu...Talking heads on TV said that we may get meaningful rain this weekend, chances improving as time goes by. April showers bring May flowers?sm_landlordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05240427561510825980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-3972990069685002692018-04-03T17:50:19.944-07:002018-04-03T17:50:19.944-07:00Yeah, it was in the mid 80s and may be higher tomo...Yeah, it was in the mid 80s and may be higher tomorrow. Sweat.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-30964181994584120072018-04-03T16:51:03.777-07:002018-04-03T16:51:03.777-07:00We expect winter weather as well. Mid 70s and 50 ...We expect winter weather as well. Mid 70s and 50 at night with a chance of rain next Saturday. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-29704621384514094282018-04-03T14:56:23.788-07:002018-04-03T14:56:23.788-07:00FWIW, we're expecting winter weather this week...FWIW, we're expecting winter weather this week and possibly next. Agw ftwCinco-Xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070836718703358881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-86399972097776323582018-04-03T14:44:34.680-07:002018-04-03T14:44:34.680-07:00Or,.if it fell to 4 million.the rest would be esse...Or,.if it fell to 4 million.the rest would be essentially unemployable so we had no more people? Wouldn't that cause investment in labor saving machines and software? Isn't this stuff good?<br />Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-38008656418966647282018-04-03T14:39:04.519-07:002018-04-03T14:39:04.519-07:00I don't understand. What would the number of...I don't understand. What would the number of unemployed dropping to 5 millions cause a recession? Seems like they would spend more money, which would be good. Or are you saying the.mightneed some training which the poor to h companies would have to pay for. Or wages would go up<br />. . Horrors.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-59244675517142337632018-04-03T14:05:19.367-07:002018-04-03T14:05:19.367-07:00Thanks Dawg.
I also follow the Atlanta GDP Now, (...Thanks Dawg.<br /><br />I also follow the Atlanta GDP Now, (why is it nobody seems to follow the St. Louis or NY versions?), though it's more out of curiosity than trust at the moment.<br /><br />Based on my skimming the methodologies, it's really sort of GDP-WAG most of the time - as they guesstimate what all the pieces parts of what their model uses - then plug in the real numbers when they get released by the various reporting agencies. <br /><br />I actually started my own personal economic tracking document just for my own amusement at the beginning of this year, and am inserting my monthly analysis and that month's major economic reports, (GDPNow is included). At some point, I'll probably migrate it to an excel sheet, but I'm still in the hunter/gatherer phase of my economics education (beyond employment, which I feel I have a solid foundation on).<br /><br />I'm still convinced there is a recession looming (late '18 or maybe early '19), based on economic behavior as the unemployed labor pool gets too shallow. <br /><br />Since 1975, the total number of unemployed has never dropped below 5.5 million, (the very bottom of the Clinton Dot Com expansion). We're currently at 6.7M, which is as low as the total unemployed reached back in 2007 before the expansion ground to a halt. My best guess at this point is unemployed will never drop below 6M again before triggering a recession. So, at best we soak up another 700k employees before the fighting over scraps leads to job cuts and recession.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-44510596352854116132018-04-03T11:35:36.026-07:002018-04-03T11:35:36.026-07:00CA deflated by the CPI-U isn't reflective of C...CA deflated by the CPI-U isn't reflective of CPI in CA . Still a very useful index.<br /><br />By the same measure of volatile indexes I follow:<br /><br />https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx<br /><br />Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-6800790085524076132018-04-03T11:22:02.579-07:002018-04-03T11:22:02.579-07:00CA is one of the six states with a greater than 1....CA is one of the six states with a greater than 1.0% increase in the index, (OR, WY, UT, CO, and ME are the others). (This is based on the 3-month change variant, which removes some of the volatility -- but that means this reading is for January - not March).<br /><br />Only 4 states are currently negative: ND, MD, AK, LA<br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-64281133786930457772018-04-03T10:34:38.531-07:002018-04-03T10:34:38.531-07:00So is Kali andFloridah getting better or worser?So is Kali andFloridah getting better or worser?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-1760510406753489012018-04-03T10:15:04.579-07:002018-04-03T10:15:04.579-07:00LBD,
Regarding 'advanced' economic statis...LBD,<br /><br />Regarding 'advanced' economic statistics. I might suggest you take a gander at the "State Coincident Index."<br /><br />https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/coincident<br /><br />It's a single stat that combines four stats and then determines whether things are getting better or worse. <br /><br />The official quick explanation:<br /><br />The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.<br /><br />A couple of the obvious benefits - it's done at the state level, so one can see regional patterns and bad (or good) spots cannot be masked by national averages. It focuses squarely on employment, but includes wages and manufacturing hours into the mix. The color coded map is (IMHO) a really neat way to get across the general trends WITHOUT obscuring the details. <br /><br />Downsides are that it's complex enough that one has to trust the people who put it together, (or do a LOT of digging to grasp the math). The site doesn't have an animated view of the maps, but I will routinely open a series of the individual month in separate tabs and then click through them - (poor man's animation), which really helps capture the trends over time. Because these are at state level, they tend to be more volatile than national stats - as any random state can have a good or bad month outliers, so one must be cautious about reading too much into any single release. <br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-52468858451695880042018-04-03T08:46:03.274-07:002018-04-03T08:46:03.274-07:00Anyway, I'm at a loss why people don't buy...Anyway, I'm at a loss why people don't buy insurance. It's way under priced.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-91693966735557764732018-04-03T08:43:40.040-07:002018-04-03T08:43:40.040-07:00True,but how can you tell?True,but how can you tell?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-4802440660586199252018-04-03T07:33:52.754-07:002018-04-03T07:33:52.754-07:00LBD, no. Your fire insurance is required to pay f...LBD, no. Your fire insurance is required to pay for the mudslide damage as the fire was the cause not "flooding." Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-90218888208322321002018-04-03T06:47:36.951-07:002018-04-03T06:47:36.951-07:00This number is for the mudslide only. A tiny frac...This number is for the mudslide only. A tiny fraction of the fire claims. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.com