tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post8710007244712526329..comments2024-02-25T08:16:25.546-08:00Comments on Exurban Nation: When is a Drought No Longer a Drought? Rob Dawghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-20181722641961861762018-07-24T07:10:23.442-07:002018-07-24T07:10:23.442-07:00Firemane,
I commended you for your studies. I on ...Firemane,<br /><br />I commended you for your studies. I on the other hand as a shoot from the hip street player and do not study Data for all my answers. So in my last chapter of life I am isolated from the problems short of a depression or war (civil). I do use hours worked as a guide to real need for workers. The increase as I understand on cutting of full time employment to part time, especially hospitality and leisure. On the short it has dropped about .5 in recent years. Not good and goes back to there is no over all shortage of labor. There is always ares of need like skilled people that colleges and our education system have failed. My lack of trust in government extends to data just like today's drama of the FBI and the past IRS scandal etc. That said I hope you find what you need as I did in my way. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-76215940833694215102018-07-23T18:18:48.890-07:002018-07-23T18:18:48.890-07:00Busy day exhausted, I will respond tomorrow.
Busy day exhausted, I will respond tomorrow.<br />LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-6309985510716333632018-07-23T16:41:05.788-07:002018-07-23T16:41:05.788-07:00True, either way.True, either way.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-8775461689789686632018-07-23T14:10:36.626-07:002018-07-23T14:10:36.626-07:00Listen to Firemane except and this is not refutati...Listen to Firemane except and this is not refutation but a caveat, paid hours and expended hours are not always the same. <br /><br />New post. Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-34729499224620411852018-07-23T08:48:28.361-07:002018-07-23T08:48:28.361-07:00Well, BLS has a few series with long histories.
T...Well, BLS has a few series with long histories.<br /><br />Table 7 from the 'B' series: <br /><br />https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab7.htm<br /><br />Has "total hours" for all non-supervisory employees back to '64<br />Also has "OT hours for manufacturing workers" back to '56.<br /><br />Interesting to look at if you view the graphs.<br /><br />Total hours have been steadily dropping - (was just under 39 back in '64), but dropped all the way to 34 by 1990. The down trend has turned more into a side trend - but, except for a big dip in 2009, it's been holding fairly steady at a bit under 34 hours since about 2003.<br /><br />What is really interesting is the trend in OT hours is actually opposite. OT hours have trended steadily UP since 1956. In fact, the only time Manufacturing OT hours were greater than today were a couple of spikes in 1995 and 1998. Prior to 1992, OT hours never breached 4 hours, since then, it is almost never BELOW 4 hours.<br /><br />The point here I'm making is not that your instinct is wrong - but that a BIG trend can mask short term changes. The "base" hours worked has been steadily dropping since the '60s. The avg. hours worked dropped steadily at the same time that female participation rates in the workforce rose from 35 to 70%. There is a tendency to think in terms of *ALL* working spouses working FT. That was never the case. As we went from the Ward Cleaver single-earner family to the dual-income family, your "simple" world got a LOT more complex.<br /><br />Me? I don't mind discussions on the relative usefulness of this stat vs. that stat. What I object to is simultaneously saying "the stats are all bogus!" and then using BLS data (hours worked not rising) as a negative indication about the economy.<br /><br />Has the ratio of FT to PT changed over time? Perhaps. I don't know. It would be worth looking at. But, "what if" there is a long term (40+ year) trend of PT workers increasing (as a % of all workers)? Does that mean the economy was steadily getting worse during the Reagan years and the Clinton years? <br /><br />Now, if you find such a long term trend - it is possible to adjust for it - which is precisely what you say there is already too much of.<br /><br />Me? I've spent the past 10 years trying to understand the BLS data better so I can have some feel of where I think the data is valuable, and where I think long term trends really have made historical comparisons useless. (First Time Claims is one area, for example).<br /><br />It's the kind of things journalists might have done in the past, but there's almost nobody left in the media who isn't an opinion mouthpiece masquerading as news - so I have to do it myself.<br /><br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-63691143987413235712018-07-23T07:33:15.006-07:002018-07-23T07:33:15.006-07:00Yep, hmm my sec'y seldom did
I think u6, com...Yep, hmm my sec'y seldom did<br /> I think u6, compared to u3, might be helpful. The forgotten workers were analyzed privatedly, so all the figures should be increased upward by about 1%. Assuming ignored error bars everywhere. Fewer beggers here, not that there ever were so many.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-17109956179592041912018-07-23T06:39:12.181-07:002018-07-23T06:39:12.181-07:00LL with little exception most don't even hit 4...LL with little exception most don't even hit 40hrs a week, and a lot of part time got hours cut due to Obummer Care. Had a talk with someone I know who had the experience working for one of the Malls anchor stores in the 90's. She went from full time to part time and lost benefits, company sold and went down hill through mergers and now BK. Luckily she has a good full time job now and will probably make it to retirement if the major co. doens't loss it's stability. LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-75738105359515218322018-07-23T06:32:39.601-07:002018-07-23T06:32:39.601-07:00Good Morning!
Simple as a former employer if ther...Good Morning!<br /><br />Simple as a former employer if there is a labor shortage the two things happen to meet output demand. One is you pay more in wages to attract workers and the second is you work what employees you have longer harder hours. Data is adjusted way to much IMO and you get what you want to see. The hours worked does not support a shortage of labor and wages don't seem to be rocketing to the moon exactly. Is there data on how many part time jobs are held by one person? Jobs and people are two separate subjects. Life is really simple and complication is met to confuse and control. IMO.LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-19649184300594668712018-07-23T06:16:55.290-07:002018-07-23T06:16:55.290-07:00I had forgotten time and a half existed.I had forgotten time and a half existed.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-2407033521064199502018-07-23T06:15:43.003-07:002018-07-23T06:15:43.003-07:00Time and a half pay?Time and a half pay?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-33026091765574942592018-07-23T06:13:51.463-07:002018-07-23T06:13:51.463-07:00More money? More work available? Prelude to more ...More money? More work available? Prelude to more hiring and lower unemployment and fewer discouraged workers?Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-24900688908168734352018-07-23T06:09:10.597-07:002018-07-23T06:09:10.597-07:00LBD,
Just curious. Do you have any idea what was...LBD,<br /><br />Just curious. Do you have any idea what was happening with hours worked from 1964 - oh, 2000?<br /><br />And I'm not getting the logic of why you think more hours is a good thing.<br /><br />Firemanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633105706285705750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-19546943235017561032018-07-23T03:49:32.018-07:002018-07-23T03:49:32.018-07:00Yeah some ladies at the Uu church had back and kne...Yeah some ladies at the Uu church had back and knee surgeries and its not a pretty sight.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-32423506493533798152018-07-22T20:23:05.316-07:002018-07-22T20:23:05.316-07:00Liz, Your decision to wait till the pain is beyond...Liz, Your decision to wait till the pain is beyond endurance is what I recommend to folks with back pain. A friend, your age, had back pain and was going to have surgery. The docs discovered he had a blood clotting problem and never had surgery. He is much better now. The only reason for surgery is loss of function, like peeing and pooping. If that happens you have two options die or surgery.dilbert dogberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09637308390558302302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-50581612763861120582018-07-22T15:43:16.320-07:002018-07-22T15:43:16.320-07:00Boy, do we have rain here. Contractor coming over...Boy, do we have rain here. Contractor coming over tomorrow, to start on the peeling knock down and drywall. Yay.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-2076269231861013412018-07-22T15:15:00.417-07:002018-07-22T15:15:00.417-07:00Paying taxes means you did good. Just kind of sad ...Paying taxes means you did good. Just kind of sad when your ship comes in and they are their to unload their share a very big share.LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-88599290731376944972018-07-22T15:05:52.215-07:002018-07-22T15:05:52.215-07:00But. . . . Don't mess with the IRS.But. . . . Don't mess with the IRS.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-5172921914569829522018-07-22T14:59:56.472-07:002018-07-22T14:59:56.472-07:00No doc is recommending surgery so far.No doc is recommending surgery so far.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-57706804665825592972018-07-22T14:56:58.910-07:002018-07-22T14:56:58.910-07:00Service. Hahahahaha.Service. Hahahahaha.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-86331722425156062172018-07-22T14:55:53.541-07:002018-07-22T14:55:53.541-07:00Yeah. My position is I will have back surgery whe...Yeah. My position is I will have back surgery when the pain is so severe I think I'll kill myself. No where near that point nowLawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-53580204420226295762018-07-22T14:52:30.292-07:002018-07-22T14:52:30.292-07:00Florida's employment i crease is in all areas....Florida's employment i crease is in all areas.Lawyerlizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030203787421910921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-27873364878678161502018-07-22T13:46:50.688-07:002018-07-22T13:46:50.688-07:00Irrational Revenue Service? :)Irrational Revenue Service? :)LBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05804875822934035845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-83481030037300136732018-07-22T13:02:21.661-07:002018-07-22T13:02:21.661-07:00Dilbert, it's always good to have a plan...Dilbert, it's always good to have a plan...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10565272548229232728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-90123050808356117502018-07-22T12:27:41.798-07:002018-07-22T12:27:41.798-07:00Tom Stone. Good to hear from you.
Do you remember...Tom Stone. Good to hear from you.<br />Do you remember when you advised me to sell my POS in San Joes's Nose? Zillow says I might find a fool to buy it for 1.7mil. I think the South Bay Area market has peaked. Been thinking of making it my principal residence and letting the daughter and SIl live in it while waiting out the years to get a prop gains break. They could sell their place reducing their housing costs by a couple of thou while we still have income from it. The IRS would not like that but I say F'km.dilbert dogberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09637308390558302302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7514357.post-26576772551603918092018-07-22T12:18:14.744-07:002018-07-22T12:18:14.744-07:00Liz: Lumbar spinal stenosis
Had my back operated ...Liz: Lumbar spinal stenosis<br />Had my back operated for that back in 1997. Doc said I would be back good as new in 6 weeks. Make that 2years and not good as new. It took several months before I could walk unaided. Even then I could not run and had to take care walking on uneven surfaces. That said, I did get back to skiing and riding horses. Currently feel I am suffering from somethink like Post Polio Syndrome. Muscle weakness in the legs is increasing. I still can ride a bike and ride the horse but who knows for how long? Got an electric bike as I assume I will not have the strength to ride up our little hills.<br />Good Luckdilbert dogberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09637308390558302302noreply@blogger.com