Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Ninety-Eight Percent Leased
According to an anonymous poster in a previous Riverpark thread this empty area is 98% leased and scheduled to start construction in 7 months. I guess I was wrong to doubt the power of the Oxnard name.
The retail players will lock up their slots and ensure that competitors can't get in. If the place never gets built, it doesn't cost them a thing. If the place does get built, usually some of the lease amount is revenue share, so even if it bombs, it doesn't cost them too much. And usually there are other contingencies attached to it, like getting adjacent business or residential properties done or occupied.
Getting a smart retailer to put in a little bit up front with limited downside and lots of "outs" isn't all that hard most of the time.
Ratlab, The usual phrase is "on the pinks" meaning that you can't really make a binding lease until the certificates of occupancy are in hand. Until then the 98% is an interest list. To be sure tere are a few serious tenants in mind but there's no way the local economy can support anything except the population adjusted Trader Joe's, Starbucks, Old Navy, Jamba Juice, Macaroni Grille, AM/PM and such that are part of the urbanscape regardless.
No, I mean the whole deal - job onsite, cafeteria, buy in, whole family, under one roof.
Oh you mean Microsoft. ;-)
And, would you buy in?
Depends on how much they pay me. Seriously though as a public policy gated communities suck big time. The idea of another layer of governance when we have too many in the first place is equally a formula for social dysfunction.
About Archologies*, actually rob has a point about 'gated communities'. And, an Archologie takes parts of another of Rob's least favorite concepts: new urbanisim. The later facet being the concept of living by your work, eating by your home (within walking distance)
* but I think the real challange with Archologies as they were seminal described and tried in AZ or NV is the closed 'eco system' and self-contained food production.
Looked up Mello-Roos because I hadn't ever heard of it, and the discussion board was filled with people who had left CA to TX or CO or were going to. Interesting.
Lest I forget Lent Ranch Marketplace in Elk Grove... notice the dates of these articles and still nothing has been done... I think the courts threw out the city's approval for the mall.
According to an anonymous poster in a previous Riverpark thread this empty area is 98% leased and scheduled to start construction in 7 months. I guess I was wrong to doubt the power of the Oxnard name.
My first Murst! Sucks to be yuo
ReplyDeleteSecond and spelling correctly.
ReplyDeleteIs this the same type of number fudging the condo tower builders in downtown Sac are/were playing?
ReplyDeleteI see a MURST but no FIRST. It's mine!
ReplyDeleteSure it is. But probably on contingency terms.
ReplyDeleteThe retail players will lock up their slots and ensure that competitors can't get in. If the place never gets built, it doesn't cost them a thing. If the place does get built, usually some of the lease amount is revenue share, so even if it bombs, it doesn't cost them too much. And usually there are other contingencies attached to it, like getting adjacent business or residential properties done or occupied.
Getting a smart retailer to put in a little bit up front with limited downside and lots of "outs" isn't all that hard most of the time.
-btc
Ratlab,
ReplyDeleteThe usual phrase is "on the pinks" meaning that you can't really make a binding lease until the certificates of occupancy are in hand. Until then the 98% is an interest list. To be sure tere are a few serious tenants in mind but there's no way the local economy can support anything except the population adjusted Trader Joe's, Starbucks, Old Navy, Jamba Juice, Macaroni Grille, AM/PM and such that are part of the urbanscape regardless.
BTC,
ReplyDeleteI'd like to thank you. Your recent posts have been outstanding.
So, Rob...I have a feeling you've read "Oath Of Fealty"...
ReplyDeleteHow long until they build a Todos Santos?
For you non-Larry Niven fans:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oath_of_Fealty_%28novel%29
Archologies? Oh, you mean gated communities. ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.scatteredass.com/thumblist.php?show=Galina_Ass.jpg
ReplyDeleteHere is a pic I found of the uninvolved G. She looks like she is working with a sub-contractor
http://www.scatteredass.com/thumblist.php?show=CaseyNigelPet_.jpg
ReplyDeleteThis one is a must for the Caseypedia.
BTC has been eating his Wheaties.
ReplyDeleteAt some point we move on past these.
ReplyDelete@Rob
ReplyDeleteYes, gated communities, smarty pants. :)
No, I mean the whole deal - job onsite, cafeteria, buy in, whole family, under one roof.
And, would you buy in?
Mouse And Pencil asked...
ReplyDelete| How long until they build a Todos Santos?
Rob replied:
|| Archologies? Oh, you mean gated communities. ;-)
M&P rejoiners:
Yes, gated communities, smarty pants. :)
No, I mean the whole deal - job onsite, cafeteria, buy in, whole family, under one roof.
Oh you mean Microsoft. ;-)
And, would you buy in?
Depends on how much they pay me. Seriously though as a public policy gated communities suck big time. The idea of another layer of governance when we have too many in the first place is equally a formula for social dysfunction.
BTC is bored out of his mind today.
ReplyDeleteOff to deal with a client's network problems...
-btc
About Archologies*, actually rob has a point about 'gated communities'. And, an Archologie takes parts of another of Rob's least favorite concepts: new urbanisim. The later facet being the concept of living by your work, eating by your home (within walking distance)
ReplyDelete* but I think the real challange with Archologies as they were seminal described and tried in AZ or NV is the closed 'eco system' and self-contained food production.
You know, Arcologies always remind me of Biosphere II...which was, of course, overrun by goats and morning glories and crazy ants and bureaucracy.
ReplyDeleteIn short, a terrible place to live. Heh.
as a public policy gated communities suck big time
ReplyDeleteAgreed 100%
While we be hatin': Mello-Roos is a travesty. The worst aspects of capitalism and bureaucracy and governance combined.
ReplyDeleteLooked up Mello-Roos because I hadn't ever heard of it, and the discussion board was filled with people who had left CA to TX or CO or were going to. Interesting.
ReplyDeletethis place is boring
ReplyDeleteHere's the Folsom, CA equivalent of Riverpark. Infrastructure is finally in, but it just sits there.
ReplyDeletehttp://folsomtelegraph.com/articles/2006/10/04/news/top_stories/03pal.txt
Lest I forget Lent Ranch Marketplace in Elk Grove... notice the dates of these articles and still nothing has been done... I think the courts threw out the city's approval for the mall.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2000/11/20/story2.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2000/12/04/story6.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2000/12/11/story4.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2001/03/19/daily1.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2002/06/10/daily3.html
I guess Lent Ranch was renamed Elk Grove Marketplace in 2005 and planned to open on Oct 17th, 2007. Yeah, like that's going to happen.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2005/06/13/story1.html