Tuesday, March 07, 2017

GDPNow following past Q1 Pattern

Latest forecast: 1.3 percent — March 7, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.3 percent on March 7, down from 1.8 percent on March 1. The forecasts for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth fell from 2.1 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, after Thursday's motor vehicles sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth fell from -0.50 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points after yesterday's manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

34 comments:

  1. I usually never look at Forbes, since their web site is so very annoying in so many ways. However, someone sent me a this link:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbeccaro/2017/02/22/ca-the-physical-collapse-of-a-social-state/#58cfd2e46bdb

    ...and it was too funny to pass up...

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    1. Glad you can have a sense of humor about that

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  2. Too funny to pass up? Too spot on and horrifying to pass up you mean.

    Admit it. "Dawgifornia" is not only looking better but looking more likely. Make sure you are on the correct side of Mugu Rock when the time comes. Truth told if you can get past Neptune's Net you'll be okay. We are taking most of the Santa Monica Mountains with us.

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  3. no fossil fuel use in Kali by 2045?? cool..more for the rest of us.. ;<)

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  4. California is a perfect example of what happens when either party gets a super-majority in govt...rampant insanity soon follows.. :<)

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    1. So... The opposite of Brownback isn't good?

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  5. I've tried to make it clear that if it were the Republicans holding exclusive power things would be as bad just different bad. Gosh, i wish Brown were the governor. Pat Brown.

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  6. FTR I doubt I will be using any "net" fossil fuel use 2045. I expect to be around somewhere. i just don't think that will involve using fossil fuel in California. While Heinlein's ceramic conversion screens aren't going to happen, batteries and solar are going to get better. A lot better. That story has always been a favorite.

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  7. I doubt the politicians who pass these laws will be around when then hammer falls.

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  8. I've tried to make it clear that if it were the Republicans holding exclusive power things would be as bad just different bad.

    yeah..without the natural checks and balances a second party provides..the extremists tend to take over. Next example...FedGov after the R's get their 60 seat majority in Congress in 2018..

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    1. Relax... Maybe 59, but with Collins and Paul you can only count on 57... Probably a good thing

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  9. I'm not worried about FedGov. It is too slow. Thankfully. CA took near 20 years to get this twisted. Would take even longer Federally. Besides, the rs have no idea how to act as a majority.

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  10. Maybe 59, but with Collins and Paul you can only count on 57

    then expect Maine and Tennessee to get a lot of discretionary infrastructure spending thrown their way...lol

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    1. I thought Paul was senator from Kentucky

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  11. oops..Kentucky I mean

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  12. Would take even longer Federally.

    yeah the liberal dominated bureaucracy would act as a brake on things for a while..at least until Oprah arrives in 2020...lol

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  13. Tried to participate in a MuddyEcon thread. sum_luk wasted no time with a cheap shot. Turns out I was being to sensitive and it was just a joke. Right.

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    1. Ya... Hanging around constantly with jerkinoff and justwankin has had a bad effect on him

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  14. ..reading a biography of Andrew Jackson..so I have Tennessee on my mind.. ;<)

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  15. Oprah spelled backwards is Harpo. Yeah such a change. Coastal billionaire never holding office promising change using the persuasion powers of business and TV experience.

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  16. if Oprah is our next POTUS..they'll have to invent a new word for her press/media treatment..because "fawning" will not even come close.

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  17. But imagine the debate:

    "Bitch!"
    "Honky!"
    "Liberal!"
    "Mysoginist!"
    "uhhhh, bad person...."

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  18. Interesting consequence. I left a short comment on the Dilbert Scott Adams blog about wiretapping. It has 30 up-votes a few hours later.

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  19. link?

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158110404781/wiretapping-word-thinking#comments

    35 upvotes now. Sort by popularity.

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    1. Up to 41 when I looked. Here's a link from an interesting response:
      http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/06/a-bunch-of-questions-and-some-answers-about-trumps-wiretap-claims/
      Looks like Obama and friends covered their asses using "reverse targeting" which won't be provable... It's still despicable

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  20. Sadly MuddyEcon is dead to me. sum_luk has completely gone over the edge and has taken the discussion with him. When he said all Republicans lie all the time it was bad enough. Hyperbole but the type that allows no rebuttal. Now it is different. sum_luk claims "…. deep state is an alt-right fantasy. …." which is just plain old fantasy wishing the issue goes away. Even that would be tolerable except it is getting upvotes and support from the usual suspects with no one bothering to inject a note of reason. Why bother? Scatter life vests over the crash site?

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  21. What did you say?
    Just to preserve it for the record I wrote to 49 upvotes:


    On March 12, 2013, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., asked National
    Intelligence Director James Clapper whether intelligence officials
    collect data on Americans.

    Clapper responded "No, sir," and, "Not wittingly."

    A few months later Snowden happened.
    -----

    Now almost exactly four years later:

    Former CIA Director James Clapper denied that Trump was wiretapped,
    saying, "There was no such wiretap activity mounted against the
    president, the president-elect at the time, or as a candidate, or
    against his campaign,“

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  22. Enceladus:

    https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_feature/public/thumbnails/image/pia20524-1041.jpg?itok=xhB3xLCt

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