Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — June 1, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is
4.0 percent
on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for
second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real
government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to
3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning's
construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecasts
for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real
nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent
and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this
morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for
Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for
May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to
forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from
0.30 to 0.72 after the report.
Or as Sebastian would say, the expansion of indefinite length proceeds apace.
Foist
ReplyDeletewow a 4 banger?? Fed better put some giddyup in those rate hikes...
ReplyDeleteSorry I'm late to class. Three hours on the lake, jet ski performance was flawless. Now what did I miss?
ReplyDeleteWe used to see eagles all the time hunting fish in the cracks of the ice at our lake house.
More taxes for Kali. That sunshine is getting more expensive.
GDP up more taxes will fix that.
we have several pairs of bald eagles that live at the nearby lake. The bike trail I frequent runs up the back side of the lake..and one time I was riding on a perfectly sunny day when suddenly this huge shadow comes over me...moving right along with the pace of the bike. I look up in the sky and one of the eagles is about 50 feet above me..gliding right along with me. Awesome..albeit a bit unnerving..experience.
ReplyDeleteYou weren't that yummy.
DeleteWe had white pelicans at the lake. Occasionally a flock would fly real low over our heads landing on the water. The C5 of birds. Miss it on days like this.
ReplyDeleteTrump says three years to extricate from the Paris Climate Accord. Why? We never approved the treaty so no binding elements.
ReplyDeleteHe should just propose we get the same deal that China gets..we'll start thinking about it in 2030...
ReplyDeleteYou've been reading me elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteI suggested that since China is the #1 emitter and the US #2 as a show of commitment we take China's obligations and they take ours under the Paris Treaty.
ever notice that whenever you hear "America needs to take a leadership role on this issue" (whatever the issue is)...we're about to get screwed
ReplyDeleteYup...
DeleteYep.
ReplyDeleteShouldn't we say; D'accord?
ReplyDeletePutin admitted that Russians may have done hacking.
ReplyDelete>Putin admitted that Russians may have done hacking.
ReplyDeleteJust some "patriotic Russians".
Russians hacking, really? wow amazing!
ReplyDeleteIsn't that the GDPNOW that's always laughably on the high side of reality?
ReplyDeleteGDPNow has been both high and low but almost always in the direction the final number gets revised.
ReplyDeleteIs that extra growth, if it exists, being share with the middle?? Higher wages? More participation? If not, I don't care.
ReplyDeleteFinally, being shared alittle, after inflation. Yay, sorta. Also the ratio of workers to openings has gotten better.
ReplyDeleteLoss of productively is just fine with me if that's the reason. If unemployment gets down to 3.9,I predict wages will jump. I thing the point wages will jump significantly is in my book, full employment. Over inflation, of course.
ReplyDeleteAnd still I've seen no comment about back unemployment being 7.3%, which for black people is quite an improvement. If total unemployment is 3.9,I expect black unemployment will go to about 6.3%. Which willprobably result in more restlessness, as people all people, when they get some, they want more.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning. :)
ReplyDeleteA lot of uncertainty out there still. Hours worked back to last years level still points to excess labor pool. O/T still down a tic from last year. No wage pressure IMO.
Employment out in a few minutes. Let's see.
ReplyDeleteTraffic congestion here seems to be increasing and the job market seems pretty hot too here in Chicago.
ReplyDeleteUnemployment here in Champaign is only 3.8%.
ReplyDelete138,000. U-3 4.3%. Blacks 7.5%.
ReplyDeleteI trust traffic anecdotes more than BLS hard data.
ReplyDeleteApril and March jobs revised lower in addition to the big miss in May.
Same old story and no real wage growth. Cooking the books doesn't seem to match the results. Talking head El-Erian claims participation rates going down creates the wrong direction for UE numbers. I'm so confused! LOL!
ReplyDelete-Average- hourly wage. What a joke.
ReplyDeleteGuten Morgen
ReplyDeleteTaking my first look at the Patriots. So much talent at every position you could bench every starter and still have a spot in the playoffs.
DeleteHmmm... Miami "might" give the Pat's second string a run for the money...
DeleteWho cares about wages, Hows your FICO score!
ReplyDeleteThey didn't ask for my FICO when I bought Ford stock.
DeleteMe. Don't care about FICO SCORE. Owe nothing. Could pay cash for anything reasonable we wanted
DeleteUnemployment down but CR is calling this a Trump Slump! And says it is disapinting. U6 down to 8.4%. Could be better, but is pretty damned good, I think!
Hmm. It could be mathematically that people went part time to full time. If u6 went to 6%, say, and unemployment stayed the same, it could be that a whole flood of peoLe went from part to full time, and that would be good.
DeleteMust've been a subprime stock purchase... No questions asked...
Deletehttp://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2017/06/02/fleeing_the_paris_accord_makes_scientific_sense.html
ReplyDeleteFailed climate predictions litter the troposphere, as I have detailed before here at RealClearScience. Sea ice at the arctic pole floats on. Claims of horrific hurricane seasons have been widely debunked. The burning of climate heretics at the stake has not stopped all dissent.
...when I see models that fail so badly in their predictions, it triggers my basic trained instincts as a scientist. Something is wrong. We need to stop, calm down, and think.
The actions called for in the Paris Agreement are founded upon the predictions of models that have a poor track record of success. ...Yet, we are planning our future based on the these terribly oversold predictions. We might not fare much better trusting the divining of Miss Cleo.
http://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2017/06/01/exclusive_book_excerpt_deep_state_grew_along_with_an_unruly_electorate.html
ReplyDeleteSome early progressives were quite candid about this. Woodrow Wilson complained that “the reformer is bewildered” by the need to persuade “a voting majority of several million heads.” He was particularly worried about the diversity of the nation, which meant that the reformer needed to influence “the mind, not of Americans of the older stocks only, but also of Irishmen, of Germans, of Negroes.” Elaborating this point, he observed: “The bulk of mankind is rigidly unphilosophical, and nowadays the bulk of mankind votes.”
Rather than try to persuade such persons, Wilson welcomed administrative governance. The people could still have their republic, but much legislative power would be shifted out of an elected body and into the hands of the right sort of people.
We Irish persons were really dumb. How come we got smarter? Jews too!
DeleteSadly I get to see FICO scores and incomes with rentals. CR has fallen off the rails injecting politics in to his comments. Pretty hard to call anybody responsible at this point.
ReplyDeleteWell are they getting better or worser?
DeleteHub's last project was checking the latest on climate change. The modelers freely admit their models aren't good. Sometimes they lack data. Sometimes they know their equations are no good. He talked with some. They said, help! But the data is good enough that he thinks it is real. However, we have not put our soon to be drowned (?) Merritt Island house on the mkt.
ReplyDeleteHmm, how long? A year ago I said a year and a half. Now I think a year and a half still! What will I say in another year and a half?
ReplyDeleteFaced with severe spring flooding every year, Chicago raised the level of the streets one floor a about a century and a half ago. (One historian noted that one could probably row a boat from Chicago to Denver during the floods.)
ReplyDeletePutting off dealing with global warming will probably raise the eventual costs for Florida and almost everyone else.
Nah, there will be hardly any Florida. There were just a few island not all that long ago, and the north.
DeleteA nub
DeleteWhere is everyone? Has my deodorant failed?
ReplyDeleteUntil Florida stops groundwater pumping any other measure is noise.
ReplyDeleteToo many people and not enough water in the long term... Sound familiar?
DeleteYep
DeleteMy deodorant failed shower now trip to town (banking) then lunch!
ReplyDeletePop a few volcanoes and mans contribution is zip to the problem. Tax imported goods that don't meet our current pollution standards. IMO.
Yes, yes, yes! And with no safety net. I prposed that years ago on CR.
DeleteNew post nearly indistinguishable from this post.
ReplyDelete