Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, January 09, 2018
Flooding in montecito
Mandatory evacuation Tues 09 Jan '18.
This is a map of the recent mud flows that have destroyed many houses and snapped miles of telephone poles. Click on the map and check out the for sale and recent selling prices.
Death toll now 11. Many not even in the mandatory evacuation zones. The fires were fast, the mudslides faster. CalTrans (DoT) doesn't even have a guess as to when the 101 freeway will reopen to even emergency traffic. It's a mess. Hard to convince someone in a 7000sf multimillion dollar mansion that their house will be ripped from the foundation and crumpled.
The bucket on the porch says we got 1.5-1.75 inches. Felt like a bit more. A few real strong bands. My ‘hood got nothing more than a clogged storm drain that clogs every time. The extreme variation over just a few miles from destroyed twice to here with nothing is amazing.
Yup the evening news conference said 13. Understand they rescued a 14yo girl using the sniffer dogs and the jaws of life to find her in her crumpled Home. They also found a boy clinging under an overpass but no sign of dad. There are dozens of places they cannot even get to with the dogs. 300 people are trapped in a Canyon. The toll will rise.
It fell into the ocean? Over a road? Completelt cover by enormous boulders? Building and zoning rukes change? The Mother Goddess decreeling tho shalt not rebuild!?
Dawghaus damage assessment. A corner of decomposed granite in the xeriscape garden washed away. 20 min repair job. The rain exposed a mole problem in the back yard. The seed inhibitor likely washed away and needs to be reapplied. Nothing worth mentioning.
Close, yes and no. It's a mess six miles away. It is a disaster 20 miles away. My BiL is on the coast exactly where you are seeing the national news video. They are across the polo fields, 101 freeway and railroad tracks from the worst.
That is the reason to keep up with water reservoirs for people and AG expansion. I remember around Bakersfield as desert in the 60's. Exceeding demand with out capacity really is man made. IMO
AG example 4000 gallons of water to produce 1 bushel of corn. Not unusual today to produce more then 200 bushels an irrigated acre compared to a 100 50 years ago. Natural balance is out of wack multiplying the drought cycle and severity. IMO
I don't flaunt it here but I am pretty good at California water policy. A gallon goes into every almond. If rice farmers were manufacturing plants they'd be shuttered. It would be cheaper to buy and close every lettuce field in the State than to supply them with water. First year. Don't even get me started on cotton.
Agricultural water policy in water-starved climates is a world-wide issue. Seems plants like a lot of sunshine and a lot of water and since you can't import sunshine you import water.
But keep in mind that food production can be a security issue. So it's not always black and white.
Let me ruffle some feathers...do we really need all that wine?
17 dead, 16 missing. The 101 will be closed until Monday afternoon. The reason is far beyond debris removal. Mrs Dawg has to be in Santa Maria Sunday. That means driving almost to Bakersfield and then over the mountains. Four hours and likely more.
I see Magic in wording. SM appears to be about $5,500. Ha Ha, Where as Aurora, CO goes into much more detail and I come up with $24,127 + wet fees and inspections for a 7500 sq ft residential lot.
Crazy how it has changed. I am sure the bigger estates are still there. I drove a tractor from a ranch in SN canyon to the gas station at Lincoln and SM blvd. I bet you couldn't do that today.
The 48 missing was KEYT 3ABC this morning. I suspect it wasn't supposed to be broadcast. Note there are entire neighborhoods still unsearched.
Montecito evacuate? There is no frame of reference that those people have that could be triggered spurring them to action. People in the voluntary zones who decided to get out early went to the driveway to find their vehicles swept away. Overwhelmed by events. Hard to fault them.
My stock poorfolio not so much, Funds to the moon! This is going to hurt someday soon. For now I am paper rich! :)
Guess I'm kind of chicken in my old age but the sound of rain would have me leave knowing how fast it can get out of control. It has happened so many times before in Kali.
Dreadful.
ReplyDeleteHappy Florida news. . . Many pythons frozen. Gators can freeze and unfreeze sand survive.
Were these areas also burned ?
ReplyDeleteAnd the number for today is seventeen...
ReplyDeleteGreat performance. Too bad he suffers from Flutie Syndrome.
DeleteCan you be more specific. I believe that flutie holds most of the QB records in the CFL
DeleteOne of the roy moore accusers home has burned down. There's an ongoing arson investigation.
ReplyDeleteThey are starting to remove the first mud flow bodies.
ReplyDeleteDisasters didn't reduce prices?
ReplyDeleteAll you guys need is a 6.5 earthquake.
ReplyDeleteFive dead so far.
ReplyDeleteThe earthquake map shows the Long Valley Caldera (Mammoth Lakes) is waking up. Dozens this week.
ReplyDeleteOne guy was smart. He had three cars packed up and ready to go. Decided it was time to leave. Went to the street and they were gone. Swept away.
ReplyDeleteFate.
ReplyDeleteFair or not Flutie was considered too short for the NFL. 5'10". Tua is supposedly 6'1" but....
ReplyDeleteMichael Vick was only 6'1"
DeleteWhy are people in any of these houses?
ReplyDeleteDeath toll now 11. Many not even in the mandatory evacuation zones. The fires were fast, the mudslides faster. CalTrans (DoT) doesn't even have a guess as to when the 101 freeway will reopen to even emergency traffic. It's a mess. Hard to convince someone in a 7000sf multimillion dollar mansion that their house will be ripped from the foundation and crumpled.
ReplyDeleteThe 101 Freeway at the county line usually carries 75,000 vehicles per day in each direction. That's a lot.
ReplyDeleteNow up to 5-6 inches of rain in the Ventura Mountains in two days!
ReplyDeleteLooks like just over an inch at your house - you staying dry?
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&pil=RRM&sid=LOX
We just had an inch and a quarter, which isn't much here.
ReplyDeleteI much prefer hurricanes to that set of disasters
You can run from a hurricane and I have.
ReplyDeleteInsurance.payments are going to be incredible.
The bucket on the porch says we got 1.5-1.75 inches. Felt like a bit more. A few real strong bands. My ‘hood got nothing more than a clogged storm drain that clogs every time. The extreme variation over just a few miles from destroyed twice to here with nothing is amazing.
ReplyDeleteReuters has the death toll up to 13.
ReplyDeleteYup the evening news conference said 13. Understand they rescued a 14yo girl using the sniffer dogs and the jaws of life to find her in her crumpled Home. They also found a boy clinging under an overpass but no sign of dad. There are dozens of places they cannot even get to with the dogs. 300 people are trapped in a Canyon. The toll will rise.
ReplyDeleteI hope they don't rebuild there.
ReplyDeleteSo sad and I feel like this was a known disaster just repeated.
ReplyDeleteOne wouldn't leave. Didn't like Motel 6.
ReplyDeleteAnother reported this wouldn't be so bad as fires, so he wasn't leaving.
ReplyDeleteDo we have enough Darwin awards?
ReplyDeleteKali has a lot of flu.
ReplyDeleteTo quote somebody, when do we get the frogs and locusts.
Is Dawg ok? His neighbors?
ReplyDeleteWe had a pleasant rainstorm and beautiful sunset. Six miles away people planning to rebuild find they don’t have enough lot left on which to rebuild.
ReplyDeleteIt fell into the ocean? Over a road? Completelt cover by enormous boulders? Building and zoning rukes change? The Mother Goddess decreeling tho shalt not rebuild!?
ReplyDeleteOh, the misspellings! And the humanity!
ReplyDeleteComputer beat me up. I'm too dumb for dummies.
ReplyDeleteWell if it's not one thing it's another. Appears there is a clog in the oil line, Cath and probably a stent next week. Love modern medicine.
ReplyDeleteCareful LBD. Hospitals are full of sick people and sharp things. I won't relate my adventure with getting a cath. Two months shy of ten years ago.
ReplyDeleteDawghaus damage assessment. A corner of decomposed granite in the xeriscape garden washed away. 20 min repair job. The rain exposed a mole problem in the back yard. The seed inhibitor likely washed away and needs to be reapplied. Nothing worth mentioning.
ReplyDeletedrought over in 1 week?
ReplyDeleteThere never was drought to end. The drought in practice ended last year.
ReplyDeleteThe drought will never end. The technical drought is too politically useful.
So, were you close to a mud flow?
ReplyDeleteClose, yes and no. It's a mess six miles away. It is a disaster 20 miles away. My BiL is on the coast exactly where you are seeing the national news video. They are across the polo fields, 101 freeway and railroad tracks from the worst.
ReplyDeleteDouble, triple the population and no increase in water reservoirs. Lets stress the natural drought beyond it's limits, That's political Kali.
ReplyDeleteMean time here in the boring flat lands might get some rain snow mix.
when there isn't a drought 85% of California's managed water goes to agriculture.
ReplyDeleteSo what do you think gets hit when there is one?
Non agriculture.
ReplyDeleteThat is the reason to keep up with water reservoirs for people and AG expansion. I remember around Bakersfield as desert in the 60's. Exceeding demand with out capacity really is man made. IMO
ReplyDeleteAG example 4000 gallons of water to produce 1 bushel of corn. Not unusual today to produce more then 200 bushels an irrigated acre compared to a 100 50 years ago. Natural balance is out of wack multiplying the drought cycle and severity. IMO
ReplyDeleteYep an Yep.seems like you could figure out a crop that was at least very valuable. And used less water
ReplyDeleteI don't flaunt it here but I am pretty good at California water policy. A gallon goes into every almond. If rice farmers were manufacturing plants they'd be shuttered. It would be cheaper to buy and close every lettuce field in the State than to supply them with water. First year. Don't even get me started on cotton.
ReplyDeleteIceberg lettuce isn't even particularly nutritious.
DeleteYep and yep.
ReplyDeleteReading a book that says Lucreyia and Alexander Borgia weren't really so bad. I don't believe it
ReplyDeleteAgricultural water policy in water-starved climates is a world-wide issue. Seems plants like a lot of sunshine and a lot of water and since you can't import sunshine you import water.
ReplyDeleteBut keep in mind that food production can be a security issue. So it's not always black and white.
Let me ruffle some feathers...do we really need all that wine?
The wineries should build a desalinization plant or 2.
DeleteGood early morning.
ReplyDelete17 dead, 16 missing. The 101 will be closed until Monday afternoon. The reason is far beyond debris removal. Mrs Dawg has to be in Santa Maria Sunday. That means driving almost to Bakersfield and then over the mountains. Four hours and likely more.
Good Morning!
ReplyDeleteWhat does a 3/4" water tap cost? Do AG wells have water meters on them? Just curious. :)
And do you need to worry about arsenic on ag wells
DeleteWhich, I assume, plants suck in. Yum yum.
DeleteThere are all kinds of taps. Cost depends on style and of course how inconspicuous you need it to be.
Delete17 dead. 26 injured. 48 missing. There are places they still cannot get to to check.
ReplyDeleteBase price of a residential, SWAG will do. I will assume AG does not have water meters.
ReplyDeleteYou will want a ball valve and pressure regulator and anti-hammer chamber. $120.
ReplyDeleteI see Magic in wording. SM appears to be about $5,500. Ha Ha, Where as Aurora, CO goes into much more detail and I come up with $24,127 + wet fees and inspections for a 7500 sq ft residential lot.
ReplyDelete$5,500 in SM would probably be enough to open a residential construction application.
ReplyDeletesewer hook up: New Construction (up to 3 Bedrooms) $2,239.00
water meter: 1" $4,638.58 Plus $1,241.00 Total $5,879.58
I also guess no one has enough of a yard in SM to consider lot size. I did not include sewer in the estimate.
ReplyDeleteHere's a quarter acre lot in SM:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1628-Georgina-Ave-Santa-Monica-CA-90402/20476977_zpid/?fullpage=true
Crazy how it has changed. I am sure the bigger estates are still there. I drove a tractor from a ranch in SN canyon to the gas station at Lincoln and SM blvd. I bet you couldn't do that today.
ReplyDelete>17 dead. 26 injured. 48 missing.
ReplyDeleteSupposedly only 8 missing now. Some double counting happened.
What would take for the Montecito people to leave??
ReplyDeleteThe 48 missing was KEYT 3ABC this morning. I suspect it wasn't supposed to be broadcast. Note there are entire neighborhoods still unsearched.
ReplyDeleteMontecito evacuate? There is no frame of reference that those people have that could be triggered spurring them to action. People in the voluntary zones who decided to get out early went to the driveway to find their vehicles swept away. Overwhelmed by events. Hard to fault them.
The Dow is very happy today,but we do need a pause
ReplyDeleteMy stock poorfolio not so much, Funds to the moon! This is going to hurt someday soon. For now I am paper rich! :)
ReplyDeleteGuess I'm kind of chicken in my old age but the sound of rain would have me leave knowing how fast it can get out of control. It has happened so many times before in Kali.
You don't have to live there.
ReplyDeleteNope, left in 78, to poor to live in the hills back then. I guess some value their stuff more then I would.
ReplyDeleteAt silver snsakers. But blood sugar high.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning!
ReplyDeleteIt appears T has no where to go with NK. Rocket man plays nice and continues his nuke program full speed.
Morning y'all
ReplyDeleteHe has no where to go period
ReplyDeleteLatest on fires and floods?
ReplyDeleteI did 25 minutes of an hours exercise
ReplyDeleteAnd good morning.😀 all.
ReplyDeleteNew Post.
ReplyDelete