Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Why I am Not A Chartist

Charting is an occult practice.  Humans seek patterns, even invent them when there are none.  Witness the 6 years of GDX (Gold miners ETF)and F (Ford) lockstep:



 

Now see what happened in the ensuing 18 months.  




How about this then?  Gas prices.  Lower highs and lower lows.  Clearly the future is spelled out for anyone who can read a graph.  




Or is it?  Same chart expanded to ten years from 18 months:





Here's how far I trust charting: 


CalSTRS Digs Deeper

From the SacBee:

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System estimates that the cost to fully fund the teachers’ pension debt will be almost $4.5 billion in the coming year, $4.6 billion the year after that, and more in each subsequent year.

CalSTRS calculates that 30 years from now – and many veteran teachers who retire now will live another 30 years – the annual cost of fully funding the system will be $13.9 billion.

The Bee’s editorial board last wrote about this issue in December 2012. The total unfunded liability stood at $65 billion then. Now, the amount is $71 billion.


Remind you of a negative amortization loan?  It should.  California is fast running out of productive class donors to the entitlement society. 

Monday, January 06, 2014

Getty Center

Okay, back to the shed in the back yard aka the office.  While I wade through the ephemera here's a fun pic I took Friday:

I take unusual pictures. 
Here's what everyone does:

And here's what I saw: