Thursday, May 25, 2017

Live Like a Deca Millionaire


Screams "curb appeal!"




And get this.  Here are the "estimated" monthly expenses:

Property taxes would be in excess of $2500 and insurance?  Please. 

The NOAA Hurricane Guess is In!

NOAA - For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
"As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. "These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government."
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

-----

 Ask them what their record has been for the last decade.  Miserable.  This isn't a prediction, this is hand waving CYA. 

Never Waste a Drrought Crisis

Here is the Drought monitor map unchanged since early March 2017.


March, April, half of May all with rainfall in the Santa Barbra to Ventura County area with no effect on status.  Why?  Should be obvious by now.  Never give up power once taken. 

The May 25, 2017 map remains unchanged.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

$275.4 million Baseline. Bets on the Final Price Tag?

Speaking to reporters on a conference call, officials said the state’s designers have taken into account criticisms leveled by an outside team of forensics investigators and others. They said the February emergency resulted from design and construction flaws dating from the dam’s construction in the 1960s...

Kiewit Corp. of Omaha, Neb., which was awarded a $275.4 million contract to fix the dam’s two spillways, has more than 200 employees on the site, a workforce that will balloon to 500 by August. The company and its subcontractors will work 20 hours a day, six days a week, in an effort to get as much work done as possible this year, Kuttel said.

Blame the people long gone.  That's the ticket.  



Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article152381522.html#storylink=cpyB

Realtors Blame Trump (Take a Number)

Realtors say middle class will face higher taxes, lower house prices under Trump plan 

From MarketWatch:

Right now, the report noted, 35.4 million households claim itemized deductions for mortgage interest – one of only two deductions to survive the tax overhaul – and about three-quarters of those who use the mortgage interest deduction have incomes between $50,000 and $200,000.
The mortgage interest deduction is one of two components of the tax code that support homeownership. The other is the ability to deduct state and local property taxes from income taxes. An estimated 40.7 million taxpayers take the property tax deduction right now, and 70% of them have adjusted gross incomes between $50,000 and $200,000, according to the report.
Homeowners with mortgage balances between $100,000 and $500,000 would see their income taxes rise, while households with mortgages greater than $500,000 would, on average, see a net tax decrease.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

No Really. Stay Away!

Any questions?  Need directions to get away? 

But soberly.  864 events in the last week?  It has been quiet for a long time.  And for the record I drew those arcs.  they don't really exist. I hope. 

Monday, May 22, 2017

Four hundred Billion Dollars

SacBee - It would cost $400 billion per year to remake California’s health insurance marketplace and create a publicly funded universal heath care system, according to a state financial analysis released Monday.
California would have to find an additional $200 billion per year, likely in new tax revenues, to create a so-called “single-payer” system, the analysis by the Senate Appropriations committee found. The estimate assumes the state would retain the existing $200 billion in local, state and federal funding it currently receives to offset the total $400 billion price tag.
The cost analysis is seen as the biggest hurdle to create a universal system, proposed by Sens. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens, and Toni Atkins, D-San Diego.
Steep projected costs have derailed efforts over the past two decades to establish a publicly funded, universal health care system in California. The cost is higher than what is proposed for the state’s General Fund budget is about $180 billion.
Employers currently spend between $100 billion to $150 billion per year, which could be available to help offset total costs, according to the analysis. Under that scenario, total new state spending to implement would be between $50 billion and $100 billion per year.
-----
Do the math.   36 million.  Per person $11,000 each.  $45,000 family of four.  But wait.  You know damn well half will pay nothing so $90,000 per paying family.  Will we finally rise up with pitchforks? 

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article151960182.html#storylink=cpy
 
-----

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Greek Tragedy. Death Deal Near.

Remember that can we kicked down the road a few years ago?  It's back.

-----


Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund will seek a deal on Monday on Greek debt relief that balances the IMF's demand for a clear "when and how" with Germany's preference for "only if necessary" and "details later".
Without the deal, no new loans can be disbursed to Athens, even though the bailout is now handled only by euro zone governments, and Greece needs new credit to repay some 7.3 billion euros worth of maturing loans in July.
Without the loans, Athens is likely to default - a bad start for a country that wants to return to market financing next year when its latest bailout, the third since 2010, ends in mid-2018.
- Reuters

-----
I'm sure there is always a bigger can.  



Hula.  Is there a problem? 

Saturday, May 20, 2017

What Not to Sell on Craigslist

Quarter million dollar early motorcycle restorations on Craigslist?  What does this imply for the entirety of the resale market for anything of value? 

Friday, May 19, 2017

A Tiny Corner of Democracy Resists

Bloomberg 19 May 2017:

The government’s authority to oversee burgeoning recreational drone use was dealt a setback when a federal appeals court barred the Federal Aviation Administration from forcing hobbyists to register some of the millions of unmanned aircraft taking flight.
While Friday’s decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington left intact FAA guidance on restrictions over where recreational drones may fly, the ruling undercuts one of the agency’s primary means of ensuring that unmanned aircraft are operated safely. About 745,000 hobbyists have signed up since the FAA regulation was enacted in 2015. The agency estimates that 2.3 million drones will be sold this year for recreational use, plus 2.5 million for commercial operations.
Acting as his own lawyer, drone hobbyist John Taylor sued, contending the FAA didn’t have that power.
“Taylor does not think that the FAA had the statutory authority to issue the registration rule and require him to register,” U.S. Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh wrote for the unanimous three-judge panel. “Taylor is right.”
 Most liberties are lost without a shot.  Kudos John Taylor.

It isn't individuals who are intruding. 

The future of Downtowns

Over 100 people turned out for the Mayor of Santa Barbara's roundtable Wednesday morning.
At issue were concerns about downtown Santa Barbara's homeless population and the number of vacant retail properties, roughly 40 spots.
Mayor Helene Schneider brought out police, healthcare workers and city staff to talk to the group.
Business owners were very outspoken about the perceived impact of panhandlers on their customers, along with the overuse of benches.
Police say certain rights are protected, but they are trying to find services or help for those on the streets that want it.
 See the problem?  They think it is the "bums" and not the structural economic tidal wave approaching. 

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Not Even Trying to Conceal Bias LA Times

LA Times OpEd for the upcoming vacancy election:
Gomez has virtually the entire Democratic establishment behind him, with support from big names such as Gov. Jerry Brown and L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti.
But his resume shows that Gomez doesn’t just have establishment backing; he also has substance. A state legislator since 2012, he has a solid resume and progressive track record. .... Ultimately, however, we endorsed Maria Cabil- do
, a longtime community activist, affordable housing developer and former city planning commissioner. But Cabildo came in third, after attorney Robert Lee Ahn.


Between Gomez and Ahn it’s no contest, though Ahn certainly has his virtues. One of them is his experience on the city redistricting commission and later on the city Planning Commission. He’s thoughtful and intelligent, and people who have worked with him say he’s good at bringing opposing factions together. And having a Korean American in Congress at a moment when tensions are so high with North Korea could be a good thing.
...
That may have something to do with the fact that, up until 2012, Ahn was a Republican. Ahn explains that his views have always been “progressive,” but his parents were Republicans so he became one too.
See now?  The second best Liberal Democrat is still far superior to the top Republican... ummm Moderate Democrat. 

And another thing.  Optics.  The LATimes is no stranger.  Here is the single side by side picture they use:

Notice all the subtle visual cues enhanced.  Pathetic. 

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Tradin' House Not Livin' House

Here is a house in the High Desert that is poster child for the ugly back side of the recovery.
14352 Jeremiah St, Adelanto, CA 92301
3 beds 2 baths 1,479 sqft
$199,000

Very nice family home in Adelanto. This is a newer home, built in 2004, priced to sell fast, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, with wood laminate flooring, carpet in bedrooms, water efficient landscaping in the front yard. Large backyard with wood fence all around. Centrally located with lots of new restaurants and stores for easy shopping. Next to Elementary School and walking distance to new Adelanto High School.
-----


Why a poster child?  Look at the history:


Price History
DateEventPrice

05/09/17Listed for sale$199,000+13.7%

08/07/16Listing removed$175,000

07/20/16Listed for sale$175,000

06/06/16Listing removed$175,000

05/27/16Listed for sale$175,000+20.7%

03/13/15Sold$145,000-6.8%

02/07/15Pending sale$155,500

10/10/14Price change$155,500-0.3%

10/06/14Pending sale$156,000

09/11/14Listed for sale$156,000+64.2%

01/04/13Sold$95,000-3.9%

09/01/12Listing removed$98,900

08/13/12Listed for sale$98,900+16.4%

12/08/11Sold$85,000+0.1%

11/13/11Listing removed$84,900

07/12/11Price change$84,900-5.0%

06/10/11Listed for sale$89,400-59.2%

12/30/04Sold$219,000      

Science Wednesday Prince Rupert’s Drops

I found the "mystery" of Prince Rupert’s drops fascinating for several reasons.  First the story:
Since the 17th century, Prince Rupert’s drops have puzzled scientists. The drops are made by dipping a bead of molten soda-lime or flint glass in cold water, which forms a tadpole-shaped piece of glass. While the head of the drop is incredibly strong and resist everything from a hammer blow to speeding bullets, just flicking the tail of the crystal can cause the whole thing to burst into powder. Now, as David Szondy at New Atlas reports, researchers have finally figured out the secrets behind these drops.
In 1994, researchers used high-speed photography to record and analyze the way the drops shatter, Lisa Zyga reports for Phys.org. They concluded that the surface of the drop has high compressive stress while the interior of the drops is under high tension. While that combo makes the head very strong, it’s not in equilibrium, which means even a slight disruption at the tail causes the whole thing to destabilizing and fall apart. In fact, the cracks move at 4,000 miles per hour, which pulverizes the glass.
But it wasn’t until recent technological advances, however, that could researchers examine the stress distribution in detail. They used a transmission polariscope, a type of microscope to study the tensions within the glass. By sending red LED light through the drop while it was submerged in a clear liquid, they could measure how stresses in the drop slowed down the light, giving them a rainbow-colored optical map of the forces within the drop. Using mathematical models they then calculated the various interior and exterior forces. The researchers published their results last year in the journal Applied Physics Letters.

Check out the video at Smithsonian.

Now as to why this caught my eye.  If you had asked me in my fifth or sixth year of college about this I could have rattled off the answer and it would have taken a few hours to work up the rough math to support my answer.  It never occurred to me that such a phenomena would be considered a mystery.

Second is the use of polarized light to reveal stress.  I did this in my first real job designing aerospace fasteners.  We even made up hundreds of samples to prove the design was not stress inducing and handed them out to disbelieving colleagues.

Regardless, really cool stuff. 

Why mention this today?   Google is celebrating the 115th anniversary of the Antikythera Mechanism's discovery with a new Doodle.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

You Tall? No Man I'm Small

Oprah Winfrey is dispensing great advice these days.
I’ve always hated clutter, found owning things stressful and parted with material items easily. It might have started as frustration with my parents always asking me to clean my room. A room with nothing, after all, is much easier to keep tidy. At the age of about 12, when I figured out that owning nothing was easier than keeping track of stuff, I began getting rid of everything I could, making piles of clothes to donate and tossing out soccer trophies before even bringing them across my room’s threshold.


I was worried that my lack of interest in decorating might be a sign of laziness. But much to my delight, my philosophy of “less is more” — when executed properly — has actually become trendy.
The previous from Winfrey's commencement address at Agnes Scott College in Decatur, Ga.

This is her $100m Montecito estate:





https://starmap.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Oprah-Winfrey-House-Aerial-View.jpeg

Any questions peons? 

Monday, May 15, 2017

One Toke Over the Line


 SacBee on the Sacramento budget:


The City has been looking to pot as a major new source of revenue, and it’s starting to pay off. Taxes from medical marijuana dispensaries are expected to be $4.5 million next fiscal year, said the city’s new weed boss Joe Devlin.

Sacramento also plans on licensing cannabis manufacturing, growing and delivery businesses in the next few years, with each of those areas expected to bring in their own millions. Though the city is struggling to come up with solid projections because the marijuana industry in nascent and full of unknowns, Devlin said it could bring in upward of $15 million annually in tax revenue once all its branches are up and budding.

That’s good news for the city because it owes that and more to the pension system.
Over the next five years, the city expects its pension costs to nearly double from about $67 million to $129 million.
They are "head"ed for bankruptcy.   Those kinds of pension costs are not sustainable. 

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article150498152.html#storylink=cpy

Same Pig Different Lipstick

Bella Vista means "Good View."  I guess if your idea of a good view is of your neighbor brushing their teeth.  This is the gated community of Sterling Hills.  For a million dollars I expect more than 7500 sf lots. 
 

Here are two of those for sale a couple doors apart.

And yes, they are identical houses with different exterior treatments.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Rare Praise for Jerry Brown

There isn't a lot to like but when there is give it a thumbs up.

SacBee:

California Gov. Jerry Brown released a revised, $180 billion budget proposal Thursday that closely mirrors his January plan, maintaining a cautious approach amid uncertainty about the direction of the economy and possible federal actions that could hurt the state’s bottom line.
Thursday’s revised plan follows disappointing revenue numbers for April, the state’s biggest tax filing month, but reflects a $2.5 billion uptick in estimated revenue through June 2018 compared to Brown’s January package. It puts $400 million into easing the burden on counties to pay for home-care services while pulling back on an earlier proposal to freeze child-care provider rates. It also links more money for the University of California to the system’s acting on recommendations in a scathing state audit.
 Brown is resisting the usual CA Democrat call to spend on a permanent basis twice as much as shows up as a temporary windfall.  He is also taking a small step towards adequately funding the university system.

And perhaps even more surprising I like his official state portrait.

Late edit for the foodies.  Breakfast Burritos:
 

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article149959222.html#storylink=cpy
Brown  

A

Saturday, May 13, 2017

New Dinosaur and other Science stuff

Smithonsian Magazine


The cover of the May, 1996 issue of National Geographic featured an illustration of a dinosaur embryo that was modeled on a batch of 66-million-year old giant eggs discovered in China's Henan Province. Researchers dubbed the little guy “Baby Louie,” but because he was the only dino fossil in his clutch and because the remains of his parents were never found, Louie was a taxonomic orphan—he was never assigned to a species. Now, 20 years later, researchers have determined that Louie is one of a kind, reports Ben Guarino at The Washington Post, and represents an entirely new species of dino.

First Feather Flight of VSS Unity Completed


VSS Unity was piloted today by Mark Stucky and Mike Masucci, with pilots Nicola Pecile and CJ Sturckow as well as flight test engineer Dustin Mosher in WhiteKnightTwo. Today’s test flight was the fourth glide flight (and eight flight overall) of VSS Unity, and the 227th flight of WhiteKnightTwo VMS Eve.

Once data reviews are complete, we will move forward with our testing program—pressing onward with additional glide flights designed to expand our envelope of flight weights and centers of gravity.


45 Watt Solar Panel Kit 10 Pc Kit 

 This is for Yoringe who wisely suggested an entirely off the grid way to recharge small items. 

Easy to install, the 45 Watt solar panel kit comes with three 15 watt solar panels. This solar panel kit comes with a voltage regulator, mounting hardware and the basic connections you need to start generating clean, efficient solar power.
  • Three 15 watt solar panels produce clean, quiet energy
  • Lightweight, weatherproof construction
  • Amorphous silicon solar cells for maximum output in both bright and cloudy conditions
  • Voltage regulator has easy-to-read LED display, 12VDC outlet, 5V USB, 3-6-9V DC outlets and two 12V sockets for the included Light Kit
  • Includes mounting hardware, 12V Light Kit, battery terminal clamps and universal DC power adapter
Requires 12 volt storage battery and 300 watt power inverter (sold separately).

 

Thursday, May 11, 2017

What is this if not Civil War?

 Governor Brown updates the State budget:
The proposal also includes $6.5 million more for the Department of Justice, and 31 positions, to handle more workload related to the legal challenges by the state to the federal government on sanctuary cities, and other policies. Attorney General Xavier Becerra requested more money during a Senate budget hearing last week.
“There are unique litigation expenses right now,” Brown said.
 Got that?   Millions to "resist" the laws of the land.  Be clear, not attempt to change them, ignore them. 



Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article149959222.html#storylink=cpyf

Spike! Inflation is Coming!



One of the friendly brokerages stewarding the untold (nonexistent) dawg fortune was kind enough to observe a shift in the markets they suggest I take advantage of. 



So I did what everyone with dozens, perhaps hundreds of dollars to invest.  I went to the St Louis Fed and researched the history of CD rates.  Wait?  Not everyone does this?   Love the asterisk by the way. 


See that?  Waaaay on the right?  Five year high.  Nowhere to go but up.

Meta observation.   I cannot shake the feeling that all the economic planets are being deliberately aligned and not for an optimal outcome for most.

Cinco might remember these before the flowers. 

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

From the SacBee (excerpt):

President Kamala Harris? She’s making the first moves


R
ddead more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article149309469.html#storylink=cpy
 dgsddrerrrr

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Dead Tree Edition Whistling Past the Graveyard

The Ventura County Star writes their own obituary

“We expect this change will benefit both our readers and advertisers,” he said. "We are excited to partner with the LA Times and we will continue to provide a quality print product through their state-of-the-art production facility.”
In a statement to Star employees, Winkler said the fourth estate is alive and well and is serving residents of Ventura County.

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

1986 Called and Wants Its House Back

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Camarillo/1400-Ramona-Dr-93010/home/4431654




Deficit Myths of the Past Still Haunt US

Dean Baker at TruthOut has an interesting essay (excerpt):

Most of us know about the famous Republican fairy tale on deficits in which tax cuts pay for themselves through increased growth. Grownups know this is nonsense. There is a large body of research showing that any growth spurred by tax cuts will be nowhere near large enough to cover the lost revenue. We also did this experiment twice: under Reagan and George W. Bush. We got large deficits.
But the Republicans are not the only ones who push deficit myths. The Democrats have their own, which while not quite as wrong-headed, can lead to equally bad policy.
The Democratic deficit myth centers on the deficit reduction during the Clinton years. According to the myth, Clinton took the politically hard steps needed to balance the budget and eventually run a surplus. He cut spending and raised taxes.

Be sure to read the whole thing.  No ox goes ungored.  


Debt to the penny:
May 10, 2017, $19,846,195,521,326.19
Jan 20, 2017,   $19,947,304,555,212.49
Nov 08, 2016, $19,806,239,858,606.04

Monday, May 08, 2017

Best Example of a Mid Century Ever?


This is one of those times you have to click and scroll through the pictures.  Worth every penny of the $3m asking.

774 Calle Del Norte


 Even the listing is classy:

Conrad Buff, F. A. I. A and Donald Hensman, F. A. I. A. , 1979 | The Daily Residence. When discussing the location and design of their ideal house with the architects who later became lifelong friends, the Daily family expressed that their house must be balanced and practical while blending in naturally with their three-acre site overlooking the Las Posas Valley. The results evolved into an unobtrusive, organic design emerging from the gentle hillside with views of the quilted patchwork of agricultural fields and the Topa Topa Mountains. Buff & Hensman's careful application of glass, gunite, clear heart redwood, teak, and aggregate delineates the division between built and natural environment. Each window and glass door serves a dual function: allowing light and access while simultaneously framing the verdant, bucolic setting. Repeating the centralized theme of natural materials found outside, the Great Room serves as the heart of the home offering dining, living, and family room. As such, the genesis of each room of the house originates with the Great Room, providing a centralized arterial flow thus creating connectivity and synthesis within the over 4,300 square foot house. 5 Bedrooms, 4 Bathrooms surrounded by the Las Posas Country Club and Golf Course.


First time on market:
DateEvent & SourcePrice
May 1, 2017
Listed (Active)
$3,049,000
Mar 5, 1975
Sold (Public Records)
$40,000

Sunday, May 07, 2017

Why Telsla is Worth More than Ford for Now

This is the Ford Fusion EV:

Electric Engine Specifications







Electric Hatch

Engine Type - - - - - Permanent magnet electric traction motor -
Power - - - - - 107 kW (143 hp) -
Torque - - - - - 184 lb.-ft./250Nm -
Battery - - - - - 33.5 kWh Lithium-ion, liquid cooled/heated -
On-Board Charger - - - - - AC Charging: 6.6 kW and DC Charging: 50 kW -
Charge Time - - - - - 5.5 hours (available 240V charging)/30 hours (120-volt)/XX hours (DC charging); actual time will vary -
EPA-estimated - - - - - EV Range: 115 miles -
Transmission type - - - - - Single-speed automatic -



Five hours to charge for 115 miles?  Why even bother?

Saturday, May 06, 2017

A New Tradition in the Making


The eldest progeny and spouse just biked downtown to the first California Honey Festival.  They used valet parking.  Yes, Valet parking for bicycles.


Looks like fun:
Come the week of May 1st, Historic Downtown Woodland will be abuzz as it prepares for the Inaugural California Honey Festival. Restaurants will offer creative and tasty honey centric menus through the week. Bars will offer a selection of mixed drinks with mead or honey and local breweries will have honey beers on tap. Everything will culminate in a weekend filled with festivities from honey tastings to lectures about bees and pollinators to parklet garden displays.
Hold the date! Saturday, May 6th from 10am – 5pm
The California Honey Festival’s mission is to promote honey, honey bees and their products, and beekeeping through this unique educational platform, to the broader public.
Through lectures and demonstrations, the festival will help develop an interest in beekeeping by the younger generation. Attendees will learn about the myriad of issues that confront honey bees including pesticide use, diseases and even the weather! In addition, attendees can learn how to creatively plant their gardens to help feed all of our pollinators. It is important for the community to appreciate and understand the importance of bees as the lead pollinator of many of our crops adding to the food diversity we have come to enjoy.
The similar and much older Oxnard Strawberry Festival is a big deal even if it has gone near fully commercial.  These kinds of celebrations of community and distinctiveness are great.  Wish them success. 

Shameless local equivalent endorsement follows:

These people remind me of serious wineries years ago before tasting rooms became profit centers.  They make a great product and they want to spread the idea. 

Friday, May 05, 2017

Now California Has Too Much Water

"Squirrels and gophers are your worst enemy." — Danny Wade, general manager, Tranquillity Irrigation District
 “Never let a good crisis go to waste” ― Winston S. Churchill

 California clearly let the drought "crisis" go to waste by building High Speed Rail and not reservoirs. 

Link to California Reservoir Levels (pdf)

Sorry for the scant updates to the Oroville Dam situation but the State has decided to classify much of the information.  Seriously. 

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Flipping Houses is All Timing

455 Lark Rd, Wrightwood, CA 92397



Apr 28, 2017 Price Changed $229,000 
Jan 13, 2017 Listed (Active) $239,000 
Mar 29, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 -21.7%/yr
Feb 1, 2010 Delisted (Expired) 
Dec 29, 2009 Price Changed
Dec 7, 2009 Price Changed
Nov 13, 2009 Price Changed
Oct 23, 2009 Price Changed (Active)
Oct 1, 2009 Price Changed
Sep 9, 2009 Price Changed
Aug 18, 2009 Price Changed
Jul 29, 2009 Listed (Active)
Jun 6, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 +6.0%/yr
Sep 23, 1988 Sold (Public Records) $115,000
 One property and the entire cycle on display.  +6%/yr for the 18 years 1998-2006.  -22%/yr for the 4 years 2006-2010.  

A similar situation:
https://www.trulia.com/property/3056442245-1063-Twin-Lakes-Rd-Wrightwood-CA-92397

Price History for 1063 Twin Lakes Rd

Date Event Price Source Agents
07/29/2011 Sold view detail $112,000 Public records Public records  

10/25/2004 Sold view detail $280,000 Public records Public records  

10/28/1998 Sold view detail $112,500 Public records Public records






GDPNow New Q2 '17 Prediction

Latest forecast: 4.2 percent — May 4, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.2 percent on May 4, down from 4.3 percent on May 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent after yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter growth increased from 0.97 percentage points to 1.14 percentage points after this morning's manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Keep in mind the model is an evolution.  Until a few more datums are added to the mix the first bits are grossly overweighted.  My WAG is ~2.2% a bit lower than the "consensus" but because I see lower inflation not lower economic growth. 

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Housing Supply No Longer "Tight"

One of the drivers of rising prices has been supply.  Just not enough stock to allow price discovery.  Spring 2017 has come and the "For Sale" signs are blossoming.  Let's see if buyers get more selective. 
Western half of 93010

Wrightwood, CA 92397

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Archeological Tidbit

Seems the Last Ice Age left a livable coastal zone across the northern arc of the Pacific basin.

I wonder if his name is Pete. 
The oral history of the Heiltsuk Nation, an Aboriginal group based on the Central Coast of British Columbia, tells of a coastal strip of land that did not freeze during the ice age, making it a place of refuge for early inhabitants of the territory. As Roshini Nair reports for the CBC, a recent archaeological discovery attests to an ancient human presence in the area associated with the tradition. While digging on British Columbia’s Triquet Island, archaeologists unearthed a settlement that dates to the period of the last ice age.

Full story at Smithsonian









The poppy is yuuuge!

Trying to Get to Even

Sometimes you have to laugh.  Est $1.7m.  Asking $2.1m.  Why?  Because they want to get back out what they figure they put in.  Sad.  And this isn't even the worst example in the neighborhood. 

And what does the real world have to say via comps?  Even Zillow might be generous.  
Gruesome details at: 3108 Calle De Marejada

Some pretty cutlery at the CIA in the hopes Yoringe joins us.