Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Tesla has an Antecedent

Long time readers know I have good instincts for when something is wrong.  They also know I really want historical parallels to bolster my suspicions.  Tesla bothers me and I finally remembered why.  Chrysler and the convertible.  Convertibles had disappeared for a generation due to a great number of  reasons.  Chrysler took a chance and a mediocre car with a horrible cloth top became an instant success.  There was so much pent up demand that even a clunker sold.  That's what we have with the Model 3.  Sales projections are being based on preorders.  Pentagon up demand for feel good eco transportation. The automobile portion of Tesla is likely to suffer the same fate as Chrysler.

Don't Blame the Messenger

Maybe the Democrats can go online and order some new policy positions.  If they use Amazon Primary and the voice service Electa then delivery is free guaranteed in time for the next runoff.  Use a coupon from the WaPo and receive a bonus discount on negative advertising buys.  

Monday, June 19, 2017

Vancouver Will Implode

Don't worry. It is contained to the Chinese economy, the Canadian Banking system and anyone within  11,000 miles of either.

“Price increases in Vancouver and Toronto have an element of speculation to them,” Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said last week, while issuing the bank’s biannual financial system review. The review showed “riskier characteristics are increasingly evident” in new mortgages.
A December 2016 Bank of Canada report estimates shadow lenders now account for $1.1 trillion in debt — about half as much as the traditional banking sector — and that over the past decade “these new players have become more important and have changed the face of the Canadian mortgage market … (as) tightening bank regulation can lead to migration of activity from the traditional banking sector to the shadow banking sector.”

Read more:  http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-in-the-red?cn=bWVudGlvbg%3D%3D&cn=cmV0d2VldA%3D%3D

Apologies for the poor posting format.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Whole Amazon Synergies

Re Amazon Whole Foods.  My first reaction was wrong.  This is great for Amazon. $15b is cheap for the analytics they will be collecting.  The only minus is paying $30m per physical location. Amazon will be able to integrate lots of Whole Foods SKUs into the Amazon space very quickly and profitably. Tea. Spices. Baking goods including tools.  Pastas. And every Amazon customer is exposed meaning more volume and economies of scale.  Of course the supply chain will be squoze dry and get the treatment Walmart gives their suppliers but you know, eggs and omlets.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Lobstahs! And Climate uhhhh Change?

Sad but the Climate alarmists proceed unabated.  

From Smithsonian who should know better.:  


Here's what I did:
So.  what about Smithsonian?  Silly people.  Actually a silly reporter type person allowed to advocate instead of report.  I blame the editors for not reigning in the excesses.

Maine now produces 80 percent of American-caught lobster, writes Justin Fox for Bloomberg View, and more than seven times the average take in a pre-2000 year. 
The reason is anthropogenic change, although the exact factors are hard to assess. For one thing, we're eating more cod, one of the lobster's main predators. As cod stocks fall because of overfishing and other factors, more lobsters are reaching catchable age, and they wander around the seabed with impunity, making them easier for humans to catch. For another, the ocean is warming, which has moved the lobstering "sweet spot" away from the state's southern coast to the northeast, Fox writes.
Fishery practices, like not catching lobsters under or over a certain size and not catching egg-bearing females, are also part of the equation–though not, Guilford writes, to the degree lobstermen would like to think...

Full article here.

This climate stuff is all beyond rational speculation.  The lobster herd is absolutely almost entirely subject to human influence.  Pollution. Fishing techniques.  Overfishing.  Overfishing of predator species.  Management practices.  Compared to those climate shifts are lost in the noise. 


Thursday, June 15, 2017

Meet Cyclops the Snout House

219 Paseo Loma 93010

I will come as no surprise that this sweet thing was constructed in 1999.  Description with translation follows:

Charming 3 bedroom 2.5 bath detached home located in the Kaufman Broad Tract in the Southern area of Central Camarillo.

 Tiny mass produced infill project in a less desirable part of town.

This light & bright home has an open floor plan and is tastefully & newly remodeled to include: New laminate flooring on entire 1st floor, new carpet upstairs, new bathroom flooring, new stainless appliances, new neutral interior paint, new light fixtures & more. Upstairs loft can be used as an office, media room, or can be turned into a 4th bedroom.

 After 16 years the place was entirely worn out.  Typical of the construction era. 

 Laundry room conveniently located on 2nd floor.  Master en suite includes a large luxury tub, private toilet closet & large walk-in closet. Backyard includes a lovely patio area and generous side yard. 

The garage is tiny and there is no room for even a bicycle in the "driveway." 

Security System & HVAC. Amenities include a community pool & spa, park & RV parking. 

Zero lot line, no yard, HOA $135/mo

Walking distance to Old Town.  

Wrong side of the freeway.  


Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Worst House of the Day

Hard to believe it has only been 11 years.  Look at this POS and tell me we aren't in another bubble.

1038 Robin Ln Wrightwood, CA 92397

  • 2 beds
  • 1 bath
  • 588 sqft
  • 2,400 sqft lot size
That's right.  A lot the size of modern houses.  588 home square feet for a mere $289 per square foot.   There isn't even a tub. 

Oh.  And TWO Bedrooms?  Here is the "2nd" bedroom:
For more horror:  https://www.trulia.com/property/3046001132-Single-Family-Home-Wrightwood-CA-92397

OMG WASS. And by that I mean if people are bidding up the low end like this it will get ugly fast. 

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Why VenCo Isn't Like Where You live

In addition to people shocked that the Dawghaus is a mere 45 crow miles from Downtown LA there are other ways this community is different from most anyplace else. 

Check out this arrest:

Damn quite the score.  Why the excitement over a chicken?  It was what was under the coop:

 Oh... that is why the chickens were important.  That's more cash than a monthly rental in that area.

And what's growing below the dawghaus garden shed of spousal exile?  Insane tomatoes.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Living Well Not Really

All these houses cost more than half a million dollars.  Worrisome. 

Sunday, June 11, 2017

E-Commerce, the Asymmetries Need Redress

Here is a screen shot from Amazon:
Ignore the product for now.  Look at the three pricing structures.  One charges tax and shipping and has the highest price.  One just tax, but a mere 7.25%versus the actual 8.25% or as much as 10.75% in nearby municipalities.  Then there is the middle product price with no tax and free shipping.  Head and shoulders the best deal.  I don't mind consumption taxes like sales tax but i do mind them being unequally applied.  Besides, who's to konw if that lowest listed price but taxed if the tax actually makes its way to California?  Any bets? 

Okay.  This post is a twofer.  Now look at the product. 


I may have to get one of these.  Just... just because. 

Saturday, June 10, 2017

FML FAAMG?

FAAMG — Facebook , Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google)

I suggest F-GAMA.  Pronounced "Eff gamma."

 I don't understand investing "gamma."  I understand the math.  I just don't understand why or how it yields investable data.  Even data at all for that matter.

Same here with these stocks.  Facebook, social media monetizing eyeballs.  Amazon, virtual Walmart and universal intermediary.  Apple, digital eco-space creator charging admission.  Microsoft, hardware and software and tenuous legacy.  Alphabet, big data exploiter and spaghetti angel investor.  Why in the world would anyone put these companies in the same box? 

Full disclosure.  I own APPL and it had a bad day.  Down.  A lot.  On no real news.  Like I said, there are things I do not understand about how others invest.  I do understand that as a minnow in a big ocean that there are huge predaturds who invest solely to harvest minnows. 


Insane Tomatoes
Yesterday's photo is out of date.  Had to add trellises to accommodate growth.

Friday, June 09, 2017

The Quality Spiral of Nate's 538



Screen shot of a recent fivethirtyeight home page:
Like so many leftists Nate Silver has taken the historic top to bottom ticket losses of 2016 hard.  We saw Hoocoodanode destroyed by people who couldn't even deal with it.  Nate decided to double down with NPR style coverage.  He isn't lying on the things he reports, he just carefully chooses what to cover. Note the last story.  Democrats overperforming in special elections almost everywhere.  Careful wording for still losing but losing by less. 

At least he is still credible in sports forecasting. 

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Stand Up and Salute

It was some seven decades ago, on June 6th, 1944, that D-Day, the largest seaborne invasion in history occurred.
An armada of 7,000 ships supported the landing of more than 150,000 Allied soldiers on the beaches of Normandy, to begin retaking the European continent from Nazi Germany.
For most of us, D-Day is something out of a history book. But, it’s a memory for Art Peterson. The now 93 year old Santa Barbara man was a paratrooper in the Army’s 101st Airborne Division during World War II.
It was his first time in combat, and says the plane flight from England into Nazi-controlled for the invasion was pretty scary. He says they could see tracer bullets flying around the transport plane he was in, and as he watched out a window, he saw another plane carrying his best friend get hit, and explode.
But, he says once they parachuted out of the plane, their role in the Normany invasion was a piece of cake.
Peterson fought in some of the biggest battles in the European war, even though he had a hard time getting into the military. He was just 17 years old, and finishing up high school when the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor plunged the U.S. into World War II. He wanted to be a Marine, but was turned down. The Navy and Army also said no, for the same reason. While Peterson grew up in the United States, he was born in Mexico, and wasn’t a U.S. citizen at the time. Finally, he got his chance to serve after being drafted.
Peterson was sent to basic training at Camp Roberts, which is on the San Luis Obispo/Monterey County Line. While there, he heard they were recruiting for paratroopers, so he volunteered, and was set to Ft. Campbell, Kentucky. His unit, Fox Company, arrived in England in late 1943 for final training before the invasion.
Peterson says it was while he was in England, he had some of the toughest duty of the war, helping to recover the bodies of British civilians killed in the Germans incessant bombing of London. He still gets choked up, saying because it was civilians, it was worse than anything he ever experienced in combat.
He came through D-Day without a scratch, but wasn’t so lucky three months later as the 101st Airborne pushed into German occupied Holland. He was preparing to jump out of a plane with his unit when a bullet came through the floor of the plane, and hit him in the leg, severely wounding him. His sergeant ordered him not to jump, and to take the plane back to England.
But, five minutes later, the plane was hit again by fire from the ground, and he and the crew had to bail out to safety. He spent three months in the hospital recovering from his injury.
Then, three months later, he found himself in the middle of a third major battle. Peterson’s unit was one of those sent to help U.S. forces in the Belgian town of Bastogne, who had been surrounded by German troops during there last great military offensive, a surprise attack known as “The Battle of the Bulge” He was wounded during the “Battle of the Bulge,” again hit in the leg. But, he has good memories of his role in the battle, making lifelong friends in the community. He has a lasting reminder in Bastogne in his name, a tree in his name.
As Peterson took part in a D-Day remembrance luncheon in Santa Barbara sponsored by the Pierre Claeyssens Veterans Foundation, he noted that age has caught up with the survivors club, and there aren’t many left. He says he’s the only still living member of his squad.
Peterson says despite being wounded twice, he feels lucky to have survived, and is proud he served. He returned to Santa Barbara after the war, where he opened a successful janitorial and housecleaning business. He married, and had two boys and two girls.
He says life has been good, and he says thanks every morning as he wakes to start a new day.

Reproduced from the KCLU article. Be sure to click through to listen to more interesting content. 

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Natty Can Mean Many Things

†The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power [DWP] has put a hold on a $2.2-billion plan to rebuild old natural gas power plants while it studies clean energy alternatives to meet electricity demands.
The decision announced Tuesday follows a Los Angeles Times investigation that showed the state is operating with an oversupply of electricity, driven largely by the construction of gas-fueled generating plants. The report found that the state’s power plants are on track to be able to produce at least 21% more electricity than needed by 2020.
Californians, meanwhile, are footing a $40-billion annual bill while using less electricity, paying $6.8 billion more than they did in 2008 when power use in the state was at its all-time high. Electricity consumption has since fallen and remained largely flat.

Here is a graph:

Demographics

Questions?

Monday, June 05, 2017

Keep Calm and Carry... Your Beer

Fleeing the London attack.  The four guys in the second row are Americans from Folsom, CA.  The bloke in front with his beer is a Brit.  We need to "get used to it." 

Friday, June 02, 2017

Trump Kicking In

Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — June 2, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on June 2, down from 4.0 percent on June 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 0.72 to 0.17 after the report.
Finally the economy is responding to the horrible trump Presidency.  ;)

Thursday, June 01, 2017

The Obama Legacy Persists

Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — June 1, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.30 to 0.72 after the report.

 Or as Sebastian would say, the expansion of indefinite length proceeds apace. 

Cute? No. Cool? Yes!

Condor Cam: