Thursday, June 01, 2017

The Obama Legacy Persists

Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — June 1, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.30 to 0.72 after the report.

 Or as Sebastian would say, the expansion of indefinite length proceeds apace. 

55 comments:

Cinco-X said...

Foist

Mike said...

wow a 4 banger?? Fed better put some giddyup in those rate hikes...

LBD said...

Sorry I'm late to class. Three hours on the lake, jet ski performance was flawless. Now what did I miss?

We used to see eagles all the time hunting fish in the cracks of the ice at our lake house.

More taxes for Kali. That sunshine is getting more expensive.

GDP up more taxes will fix that.

Mike said...

we have several pairs of bald eagles that live at the nearby lake. The bike trail I frequent runs up the back side of the lake..and one time I was riding on a perfectly sunny day when suddenly this huge shadow comes over me...moving right along with the pace of the bike. I look up in the sky and one of the eagles is about 50 feet above me..gliding right along with me. Awesome..albeit a bit unnerving..experience.

LBD said...

We had white pelicans at the lake. Occasionally a flock would fly real low over our heads landing on the water. The C5 of birds. Miss it on days like this.

Lawyerliz said...

You weren't that yummy.

Rob Dawg said...

Trump says three years to extricate from the Paris Climate Accord. Why? We never approved the treaty so no binding elements.

Mike said...

He should just propose we get the same deal that China gets..we'll start thinking about it in 2030...

Rob Dawg said...

You've been reading me elsewhere.

I suggested that since China is the #1 emitter and the US #2 as a show of commitment we take China's obligations and they take ours under the Paris Treaty.

Mike said...

ever notice that whenever you hear "America needs to take a leadership role on this issue" (whatever the issue is)...we're about to get screwed

Lawyerliz said...

Yep.

Cinco-X said...

Yup...

Rob Dawg said...

Shouldn't we say; D'accord?

Lawyerliz said...

Putin admitted that Russians may have done hacking.

EngineerJim said...

>Putin admitted that Russians may have done hacking.

Just some "patriotic Russians".

LBD said...

Russians hacking, really? wow amazing!

TJandTheBear said...

Isn't that the GDPNOW that's always laughably on the high side of reality?

Rob Dawg said...

GDPNow has been both high and low but almost always in the direction the final number gets revised.

Lawyerliz said...

Is that extra growth, if it exists, being share with the middle?? Higher wages? More participation? If not, I don't care.

Lawyerliz said...

Finally, being shared alittle, after inflation. Yay, sorta. Also the ratio of workers to openings has gotten better.

Lawyerliz said...

Loss of productively is just fine with me if that's the reason. If unemployment gets down to 3.9,I predict wages will jump. I thing the point wages will jump significantly is in my book, full employment. Over inflation, of course.

Lawyerliz said...

And still I've seen no comment about back unemployment being 7.3%, which for black people is quite an improvement. If total unemployment is 3.9,I expect black unemployment will go to about 6.3%. Which willprobably result in more restlessness, as people all people, when they get some, they want more.

LBD said...

Good Morning. :)

A lot of uncertainty out there still. Hours worked back to last years level still points to excess labor pool. O/T still down a tic from last year. No wage pressure IMO.

Rob Dawg said...

Employment out in a few minutes. Let's see.

Walt Tucker said...

Traffic congestion here seems to be increasing and the job market seems pretty hot too here in Chicago.

Lawyerliz said...

Unemployment here in Champaign is only 3.8%.

Rob Dawg said...

138,000. U-3 4.3%. Blacks 7.5%.

Rob Dawg said...

I trust traffic anecdotes more than BLS hard data.

April and March jobs revised lower in addition to the big miss in May.

LBD said...

Same old story and no real wage growth. Cooking the books doesn't seem to match the results. Talking head El-Erian claims participation rates going down creates the wrong direction for UE numbers. I'm so confused! LOL!

Rob Dawg said...

-Average- hourly wage. What a joke.

Cinco-X said...

Guten Morgen

LBD said...

Who cares about wages, Hows your FICO score!

Rob Dawg said...

Taking my first look at the Patriots. So much talent at every position you could bench every starter and still have a spot in the playoffs.

Rob Dawg said...

They didn't ask for my FICO when I bought Ford stock.

Lawyerliz said...

Me. Don't care about FICO SCORE. Owe nothing. Could pay cash for anything reasonable we wanted
Unemployment down but CR is calling this a Trump Slump! And says it is disapinting. U6 down to 8.4%. Could be better, but is pretty damned good, I think!

Cinco-X said...

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2017/06/02/fleeing_the_paris_accord_makes_scientific_sense.html

Failed climate predictions litter the troposphere, as I have detailed before here at RealClearScience. Sea ice at the arctic pole floats on. Claims of horrific hurricane seasons have been widely debunked. The burning of climate heretics at the stake has not stopped all dissent.

...when I see models that fail so badly in their predictions, it triggers my basic trained instincts as a scientist. Something is wrong. We need to stop, calm down, and think.

The actions called for in the Paris Agreement are founded upon the predictions of models that have a poor track record of success. ...Yet, we are planning our future based on the these terribly oversold predictions. We might not fare much better trusting the divining of Miss Cleo.

Lawyerliz said...

Hmm. It could be mathematically that people went part time to full time. If u6 went to 6%, say, and unemployment stayed the same, it could be that a whole flood of peoLe went from part to full time, and that would be good.

Cinco-X said...

http://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2017/06/01/exclusive_book_excerpt_deep_state_grew_along_with_an_unruly_electorate.html

Some early progressives were quite candid about this. Woodrow Wilson complained that “the reformer is bewildered” by the need to persuade “a voting majority of several million heads.” He was particularly worried about the diversity of the nation, which meant that the reformer needed to influence “the mind, not of Americans of the older stocks only, but also of Irishmen, of Germans, of Negroes.” Elaborating this point, he observed: “The bulk of mankind is rigidly unphilosophical, and nowadays the bulk of mankind votes.”

Rather than try to persuade such persons, Wilson welcomed administrative governance. The people could still have their republic, but much legislative power would be shifted out of an elected body and into the hands of the right sort of people.

LBD said...

Sadly I get to see FICO scores and incomes with rentals. CR has fallen off the rails injecting politics in to his comments. Pretty hard to call anybody responsible at this point.

Lawyerliz said...

Hub's last project was checking the latest on climate change. The modelers freely admit their models aren't good. Sometimes they lack data. Sometimes they know their equations are no good. He talked with some. They said, help! But the data is good enough that he thinks it is real. However, we have not put our soon to be drowned (?) Merritt Island house on the mkt.

Lawyerliz said...

We Irish persons were really dumb. How come we got smarter? Jews too!

Lawyerliz said...

Hmm, how long? A year ago I said a year and a half. Now I think a year and a half still! What will I say in another year and a half?

Lawyerliz said...

Well are they getting better or worser?

Walt Tucker said...

Faced with severe spring flooding every year, Chicago raised the level of the streets one floor a about a century and a half ago. (One historian noted that one could probably row a boat from Chicago to Denver during the floods.)

Putting off dealing with global warming will probably raise the eventual costs for Florida and almost everyone else.

Lawyerliz said...

Where is everyone? Has my deodorant failed?

Lawyerliz said...

Nah, there will be hardly any Florida. There were just a few island not all that long ago, and the north.

Lawyerliz said...

A nub

Rob Dawg said...

Until Florida stops groundwater pumping any other measure is noise.

Cinco-X said...

Hmmm... Miami "might" give the Pat's second string a run for the money...

Cinco-X said...

Must've been a subprime stock purchase... No questions asked...

LBD said...

My deodorant failed shower now trip to town (banking) then lunch!

Pop a few volcanoes and mans contribution is zip to the problem. Tax imported goods that don't meet our current pollution standards. IMO.

Cinco-X said...

Too many people and not enough water in the long term... Sound familiar?

Rob Dawg said...

New post nearly indistinguishable from this post.

Lawyerliz said...

Yep

Lawyerliz said...

Yes, yes, yes! And with no safety net. I prposed that years ago on CR.