Friday, June 02, 2017

Trump Kicking In

Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — June 2, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on June 2, down from 4.0 percent on June 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 0.72 to 0.17 after the report.
Finally the economy is responding to the horrible trump Presidency.  ;)

132 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Yes yes yes to LBD's Suggestion on the previous thread.

Lawyerliz said...

Why is there such a difference between June 1st and 2nd?

Rob Dawg said...

The poor employment report has great weight.

Cinco-X said...

What about the June rate hike?

Mike said...

not enough people took on their fifth part time job this month I guess.. ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

A sure thing. A case of credibility "trumping" reality.

Mike said...

been reading up a bit on this Paris climate agreement that we are exiting (didn't really pay attention when Obama first signed up for it).

If I'm understanding it correctly..every country sets their own greenhouse gas goals..and then measures their own progress towards that goal..and in exchange..the developed countries (guess who??) pay the developing countries (incl China and Russia) a minimum of $100 billion per year for their efforts.

How stupid are we??

Rob Dawg said...

Wealth transfer. You see clearly Mike.

Rob Dawg said...

Wealth transfer is complex. If California were to give me $15,000 I would slap an array on my roof. Might cost me $2-5k out of pocket but thereafter the dawghaus would be essentially grid neutral.

Mike said...

..and the funny thing is...many of the countries committed to reductions only after they have hit their "peak emissions" (which they will determine)..so they'd be getting paid for doing nothing essentially.

Mike said...

I hope they are going thru the UN Budget/commitments with a fine tooth comb..because you know Obama put crap like this in all over the place..

LBD said...

Kerry on the tube today really play the end of the world. How much business leverage did he lose? Did I miss Fat Al crying to? LOL!

Lawyerliz said...

Hah! I thought you had no wealth.

Cinco-X said...

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/05/paul-allen-showed-off-his-new-rocket-launching-plane-today-it-is-big/


Paul Allen's intriguing launch company, Vulcan Aerospace, has gone relatively quiet in recent years, and questions about the venture's viability have been increasing. But on Wednesday, the cofounder of Microsoft shared a new photo of the company's Stratolaunch airplane—the largest in the world—and it seems the company is moving forward.

The new plane is, in a word, bigly. The aircraft has 385-foot wingspan and, powered by six Pratt & Whitney engines used on Boeing 747 aircraft, has a maximum takeoff weight of 1.3 million pounds. The Stratolaunch's wingspan is the largest in history, blowing away the previous record-holder (Howard Hughes' Spruce Goose) by 65 feet. Vulcan Aerospace says its Stratolaunch airplane will have an operational range of 2,000 nautical miles. Serving as a reusable first stage for rocket launches, the Stratolaunch system will be capable of delivering payloads to multiple orbits and inclinations in a single mission.



I seem to recall some discussion about why this approach wasn't being used. I guess that it is...

Unknown said...

After you put Elon's SolarCity panels on your roof, the utilities will charge you for being on the grid. You will not get away.

Rob Dawg said...

Stratolauch is the second or third best way to go. Excellent example of competition driving innovation.

Rob Dawg said...

California already charges for stranded costs for folks seeking to drop if the grid.

Mike said...

the funny one is China getting paid to "ease their transition" off of fossil fuels. Aren't they the ones that flooded the world markets with solar panels..to the point the US had to put tariffs on them??

Mike said...

I can see why the Euro-weenies are so mad though. I'm guessing they pictured the administration of this ridiculous treaty would generate thousands of high paid bureaucratic jobs for the continent (hq would have to be in Paris after all...because the name!!)...paid for by the stupid Americans of course.

Rob Dawg said...

Yep. The Paris Treaty would have resulted in US transfer payments.

Mike said...

Hopefully the next step Trump has in mind is pull a couple of Army divisions out of Germany...

Mike said...

Dang..the Brewers get Kershaw tonight..this is going to be tough

Mike said...

and for anyone watching on MLB.tv..look about seven seats to the left of home plate...front row...my favorite MLB fan (season ticket holder)..

LBD said...

We should leave our troops in Germany as well as other places but charge them for the cost.

Mike said...

agreed..but pulling a division or two out might drive home the point

Mike said...

not thrilled with 35K American soldiers on the firing line in Korea either..with a wishy-washy SK govt

Lawyerliz said...

Yep. Remember Germany was the real bad gut for the first half of the 20th century. Could it revert again?

Lawyerliz said...

Guy

Mike said...

they are the "bad guy" right now in my opinion...

Merkel headed for a fourth term..what healthy democracy allows that??

Lawyerliz said...

So re arming them,n or letting them do so may not be a good idea.

Mike said...

well..it's like 70 years since WW2..maybe we should pull back and see if Europe has learned anything??

Mike said...

0-0 in the 7th....

pitchers duel extraordinaire...



LBD said...

War for years has been about business not fighting. However we need to be present to defend the dollar.

Mike said...

wouldn't the dollar become even stronger if Europe descends into chaos?? (as is their norm)

Rob Dawg said...

Nah. Leave the troops but start pulling back the forward deployed equipment and watch them sweat.

Rob Dawg said...

IMO the EU is in a mess several times as bad as their currency indicates. I wish there were a way to trade that opinion.

Mike said...

I say pull back from Europe & Korea..use the money to perfect missile shield technology..sit back and watch the rest of the world destroy each other (if that is what they choose)...

worked out pretty well before for us..

Lawyerliz said...

Nukes. Otherwise ok.

Lawyerliz said...

Greek debt to German Banks is still thete.

Mike said...

Hey EU..

"cry baby cry..

tell me about your lonesome lullaby"


hahaha

Rob Dawg said...

EU might regert the Chicomms filling the vacuum when the US vacates.

I love that word regert.

Mike said...

I'm trying to think of an organization that sucks more than the EU..and drawing a blank

Rob Dawg said...

IPCC

Mike said...

1-1 in the 11th...

my favorite fan still hanging in there..charting every pitch

Mike said...

oh oh..

Dodgers grab the lead

Rob Dawg said...

My mom likes TB. Her dad is probably rolling over in his grave. When the Red Sox finally won we thought it would be cute to put a flag near the stone. Turned out we were one of several thousand.

Mike said...

great thing about baseball..when you win...you can't wait for the next day's game (because you're hot!!). when you lose..no big deal..there's another game tomorrow..

g' night everyone

Rob Dawg said...

Wow. MLB is the NL West and the Lastros and all the rest.

Cinco-X said...

My recollection is that the dollar was quite strong going into the '82 recession... Great if you've got dollars

Cinco-X said...

Ya... They seem to want to double down on bad ideas

Cinco-X said...

Not Korea...SK is too important of a trading partner

Cinco-X said...

Liz... Liz?...LIZ!!!!!!

Lawyerliz said...

Yes? Yes yes????

Rob Dawg said...

What are you kids bickering about? Don't make me turn this blog around. Loud birds outside. Already light enough to see some colors.

Lawyerliz said...

The son's pink cat has decided she likes me. I have renamed her Bertha Pickle after a on ago owner of this house. She is a flame point Siamese, but fat.

Rob Dawg said...

Is she deaf? Common in the breed.

Lawyerliz said...

It is so wanderfully cool here. In Champaign, illinois.

Rob Dawg said...

78 headed for 88 is cool? Currently 58 afternoon high of 76.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Poorfolio still sucks but funds still screaming up!

Mike said...

Yeah..I'm no good at picking individual stocks. Well..I'm good at picking them..bad at sticking with them (e.g. owned NVDA in the 20's..got bored with it..sold) :(

Lawyerliz said...

No. I've had lots of
Siamese, none deaf. One didn't see very well.

Lawyerliz said...

Why yes. Under 90, humidity low.

Lawyerliz said...

Wil buy Home Deot, on the dip. Waiting, waiting.

Lawyerliz said...

Depot, but you knew that.

Lawyerliz said...

I mostly don't believe I can compete against high speed trading.

Lawyerliz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lawyerliz said...

My house has not been working for me this week.

Mike said...

you should have rented it out while you were away...

Rob Dawg said...

See? now you made me look. Retirement account. The first digit has changed! Good show.

I foresee a real problem with the amount of index investing going on. Doesn't reward good stocks. The bias is grossly asymmetrical. When going up strong upward pressure and lonf time horizons because of that. BUT when people start pulling from index funds.... the downward bias is so much higher and getting out first compounds the issues.

Rob Dawg said...

Good thing the retirement balances are strong. The damn house is down to making only $400/day.

Rob Dawg said...

The "pickleball" house has gone pending for 98.5% of original asking. 3 weeks on market. Let's see if the appraisal hits the number.

Lawyerliz said...

Which is the pickleball house?

Lawyerliz said...

Which is the pickleball house?

LBD said...

I don't think my stick built ATM has gone up this week. Things don't move as fast in the outback!

Put up three sun sail shades yesterday and no sun today, just a few big rain drops.

EngineerJim said...

>(e.g. owned NVDA in the 20's..got bored with it..sold)

Yep, I did something like that myself with Nvidia.
Don't remember the exact numbers, but it was in the same range.

Rob Dawg said...

NVDA. Did the same. Also CC.

Pickleball is 1609 Ramona 93010.

Lawyerliz said...

Launch in orbit, booster successfully landed.

Lawyerliz said...

Jackson, along with all the awful Indian stuff, paid off the national debt.

Rob Dawg said...

First reuse of an orbital vehicle.

Cinco-X said...

Waiting for an Eric Johnson concert to begin...

Lawyerliz said...

Up 300$. Hahaha

Rob Dawg said...

When the pickleball house records at this price the dawghaus will get a boost.

Lawyerliz said...

Good Morning.😀.

Wakey upey.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Looks like the Islamic nuts strike again. Forrest Gump leadership will take a long time if ever to fix. :(

Cinco-X said...

The concert was okay... He had a young woman named Ariel, not certain of the spelling, open for him and play on a few of his songs. She was pretty good. Johnson is an excellent guitarist, but a marginal singer...

Cinco-X said...

Sorry... Arielle

Rob Dawg said...

Even tragedies have their moments. The BBC had an eye witness who emerged from the bar and chased the terrorists throwing bottles at them.

And in a lightbulb moment hopefully I saw the incredulous reaction when someone expressed surprise that terrorists would attack a city with a Muslim mayor.

Mike said...

The BBC had an eye witness who emerged from the bar and chased the terrorists throwing bottles at them.

but the orders were "Run,hide,tell"

Rob Dawg said...

Clearly London needs to spend hundreds of millions hardening the London Bridge against pedestrian/vehicle mixing. And more police and more surveillance. And a hugely expensive outreach campaign preaching tolerance. And madras schools for the children.

Rob Dawg said...

The Mayor called them barbaric cowards. Exactly the wrong thing. First they weren't cowards. They were motivated and willing to die for what they believed. Every one of their supporters think that brave and noble. Besides barbaric is something they seek to establish as a reputation.

I suggest we propose an airstrike. Openly and without guile. Next year at the annual pilgrimage a fuel air explosion over Mecca at the height of the season. This will give the Muslims a year to explain why this is not a good idea. No doubt their reasons will be many. At which point the west replies "and have you honored any of these respecting our cultures?"

Rob Dawg said...

Gun, slide, shell?

Mike said...

Maybe if we have a candlelight march where everybody brings a teddy bear to hug they will stop..

Lawyerliz said...

The children of first generation immigrants often feel uncomfortable, and like the being neither here nor there. My Lithuanian girl friend felt that way, but she was never gonna hurt anybody, her parents were peaceful.

Lawyerliz said...

She came here at 4 years old from a camp for refugees in germany. He parents lived in a Lithuanian neighborhood, she spoke and read and wroeLithuanian. Her parents did not as simulate and never learned more than a few words of English. She married a guy of mostly English decent and taught her kids Lithuanion. Her kids so far have not been successful, except one, but certainly not murderous.

Lawyerliz said...

I knew I didn't belong in Miami when I couldn't get a cheese Danish. And the bakery manager didn't know what it was either.

Rob Dawg said...

Teddy bear shortage in England following Manchester two weeks ago.

Mike said...

I've got it...

Let's have a concert!!

Rob Dawg said...

Open admission with no security because if we tighten security the terrorists win.

Mike said...

well..heavy security for the performers of course

Rob Dawg said...

I can attest first hand to the truth of this article.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170604/FINANCE_AND_INSURANCE/170609884/-tesla-owners-should-pay-more-for-insurance-aaa-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Lawyerliz said...

Why are they mad at Emgland? USA I understand.

Lawyerliz said...

Just had the best French Toast I ever ate.

Lawyerliz said...

In Champaign.

Rob Dawg said...

Islam hates "the west" aka the eternal external enemy.

Rob Dawg said...

I love French toast.

Lawyerliz said...

Feed them all French toast!

Mike said...

salvaged one of three from the Dodgers..still in first place..I'll take it ;<)

sm_landlord said...

Let them eat toast?

Lawyerliz said...

You haven't tasted this toast. Best French b toast in the universe. Disthil, in Champaign, illinois.

Lawyerliz said...

Up another 200$. Wow

Lawyerliz said...

Nitey nite.

Lawyerliz said...

Wake up all you slugs.

Lawyerliz said...

Trump is losing support in military communities.

Cinco-X said...

Some of us are already at work...

Cinco-X said...

According to whom?

Lawyerliz said...

I dunno. Haha. Whatever I clicked on
. Poll numbers were quoted. Sounded legit.

Lawyerliz said...

Waiting in teensy airport in Champaign

Lawyerliz said...

What happens when the coal guys realize there won't be any more jobs? Cause its not economical. In fact, nobodY could.

Lawyerliz said...

Waiting to fly over fly over. Passed a field of corn on way here.

Lawyerliz said...

Now there is an Orlando woreplace shooting.. under the bed everyone

Lawyerliz said...

It was NBC news.

Cinco-X said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Cinco-X said...

Anyone out there?

sm_landlord said...

> Anyone out there?

Nope.

Lawyerliz said...

On ground in Chicago. Now on to Orlando

UMDan said...

Make you seat mates happy - grab a big honking Italian Beef topped with spicy giardiniera and dipped in gravy before you board. And an order of onion rings.

UMDan said...

And anyone thinking coal is coming back really needs to re-start the meth lab and dig out the bootleg Oxy, cause that gravy train is dead and gone since natty is so cheap.

Cinco-X said...

Don't forget the extra garlic

Cinco-X said...

Interesting. IIRC, nylon is made from coal tar, the residue from the coking process. Has their been an impact on nylon prices?

Lawyerliz said...

Not me. But at leaSt some of those guys need to be directed to high paying jobs, or trained for them. What can I say? Having no job will never win them over.

Lawyerliz said...

I almost never wear then any more.Florida. hot, sticky.

Rob Dawg said...

Okay, got a few minutes in front of a keyboard. New post. Fair warning: It is not a joke.