Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — June 2, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is
3.4 percent
on June 2, down from 4.0 percent on June 1. The forecast for
second-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.6 percent to
3.1 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for
May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to
forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 0.72
to 0.17 after the report.
Finally the economy is responding to the horrible trump Presidency. ;)
132 comments:
Yes yes yes to LBD's Suggestion on the previous thread.
Why is there such a difference between June 1st and 2nd?
The poor employment report has great weight.
What about the June rate hike?
not enough people took on their fifth part time job this month I guess.. ;<)
A sure thing. A case of credibility "trumping" reality.
been reading up a bit on this Paris climate agreement that we are exiting (didn't really pay attention when Obama first signed up for it).
If I'm understanding it correctly..every country sets their own greenhouse gas goals..and then measures their own progress towards that goal..and in exchange..the developed countries (guess who??) pay the developing countries (incl China and Russia) a minimum of $100 billion per year for their efforts.
How stupid are we??
Wealth transfer. You see clearly Mike.
Wealth transfer is complex. If California were to give me $15,000 I would slap an array on my roof. Might cost me $2-5k out of pocket but thereafter the dawghaus would be essentially grid neutral.
..and the funny thing is...many of the countries committed to reductions only after they have hit their "peak emissions" (which they will determine)..so they'd be getting paid for doing nothing essentially.
I hope they are going thru the UN Budget/commitments with a fine tooth comb..because you know Obama put crap like this in all over the place..
Kerry on the tube today really play the end of the world. How much business leverage did he lose? Did I miss Fat Al crying to? LOL!
Hah! I thought you had no wealth.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/05/paul-allen-showed-off-his-new-rocket-launching-plane-today-it-is-big/
Paul Allen's intriguing launch company, Vulcan Aerospace, has gone relatively quiet in recent years, and questions about the venture's viability have been increasing. But on Wednesday, the cofounder of Microsoft shared a new photo of the company's Stratolaunch airplane—the largest in the world—and it seems the company is moving forward.
The new plane is, in a word, bigly. The aircraft has 385-foot wingspan and, powered by six Pratt & Whitney engines used on Boeing 747 aircraft, has a maximum takeoff weight of 1.3 million pounds. The Stratolaunch's wingspan is the largest in history, blowing away the previous record-holder (Howard Hughes' Spruce Goose) by 65 feet. Vulcan Aerospace says its Stratolaunch airplane will have an operational range of 2,000 nautical miles. Serving as a reusable first stage for rocket launches, the Stratolaunch system will be capable of delivering payloads to multiple orbits and inclinations in a single mission.
I seem to recall some discussion about why this approach wasn't being used. I guess that it is...
After you put Elon's SolarCity panels on your roof, the utilities will charge you for being on the grid. You will not get away.
Stratolauch is the second or third best way to go. Excellent example of competition driving innovation.
California already charges for stranded costs for folks seeking to drop if the grid.
the funny one is China getting paid to "ease their transition" off of fossil fuels. Aren't they the ones that flooded the world markets with solar panels..to the point the US had to put tariffs on them??
I can see why the Euro-weenies are so mad though. I'm guessing they pictured the administration of this ridiculous treaty would generate thousands of high paid bureaucratic jobs for the continent (hq would have to be in Paris after all...because the name!!)...paid for by the stupid Americans of course.
Yep. The Paris Treaty would have resulted in US transfer payments.
Hopefully the next step Trump has in mind is pull a couple of Army divisions out of Germany...
Dang..the Brewers get Kershaw tonight..this is going to be tough
and for anyone watching on MLB.tv..look about seven seats to the left of home plate...front row...my favorite MLB fan (season ticket holder)..
We should leave our troops in Germany as well as other places but charge them for the cost.
agreed..but pulling a division or two out might drive home the point
not thrilled with 35K American soldiers on the firing line in Korea either..with a wishy-washy SK govt
Yep. Remember Germany was the real bad gut for the first half of the 20th century. Could it revert again?
Guy
they are the "bad guy" right now in my opinion...
Merkel headed for a fourth term..what healthy democracy allows that??
So re arming them,n or letting them do so may not be a good idea.
well..it's like 70 years since WW2..maybe we should pull back and see if Europe has learned anything??
0-0 in the 7th....
pitchers duel extraordinaire...
War for years has been about business not fighting. However we need to be present to defend the dollar.
wouldn't the dollar become even stronger if Europe descends into chaos?? (as is their norm)
Nah. Leave the troops but start pulling back the forward deployed equipment and watch them sweat.
IMO the EU is in a mess several times as bad as their currency indicates. I wish there were a way to trade that opinion.
I say pull back from Europe & Korea..use the money to perfect missile shield technology..sit back and watch the rest of the world destroy each other (if that is what they choose)...
worked out pretty well before for us..
Nukes. Otherwise ok.
Greek debt to German Banks is still thete.
Hey EU..
"cry baby cry..
tell me about your lonesome lullaby"
hahaha
EU might regert the Chicomms filling the vacuum when the US vacates.
I love that word regert.
I'm trying to think of an organization that sucks more than the EU..and drawing a blank
IPCC
1-1 in the 11th...
my favorite fan still hanging in there..charting every pitch
oh oh..
Dodgers grab the lead
My mom likes TB. Her dad is probably rolling over in his grave. When the Red Sox finally won we thought it would be cute to put a flag near the stone. Turned out we were one of several thousand.
great thing about baseball..when you win...you can't wait for the next day's game (because you're hot!!). when you lose..no big deal..there's another game tomorrow..
g' night everyone
Wow. MLB is the NL West and the Lastros and all the rest.
My recollection is that the dollar was quite strong going into the '82 recession... Great if you've got dollars
Ya... They seem to want to double down on bad ideas
Not Korea...SK is too important of a trading partner
Liz... Liz?...LIZ!!!!!!
Yes? Yes yes????
What are you kids bickering about? Don't make me turn this blog around. Loud birds outside. Already light enough to see some colors.
The son's pink cat has decided she likes me. I have renamed her Bertha Pickle after a on ago owner of this house. She is a flame point Siamese, but fat.
Is she deaf? Common in the breed.
It is so wanderfully cool here. In Champaign, illinois.
78 headed for 88 is cool? Currently 58 afternoon high of 76.
Good Morning!
Poorfolio still sucks but funds still screaming up!
Yeah..I'm no good at picking individual stocks. Well..I'm good at picking them..bad at sticking with them (e.g. owned NVDA in the 20's..got bored with it..sold) :(
No. I've had lots of
Siamese, none deaf. One didn't see very well.
Why yes. Under 90, humidity low.
Wil buy Home Deot, on the dip. Waiting, waiting.
Depot, but you knew that.
I mostly don't believe I can compete against high speed trading.
My house has not been working for me this week.
you should have rented it out while you were away...
See? now you made me look. Retirement account. The first digit has changed! Good show.
I foresee a real problem with the amount of index investing going on. Doesn't reward good stocks. The bias is grossly asymmetrical. When going up strong upward pressure and lonf time horizons because of that. BUT when people start pulling from index funds.... the downward bias is so much higher and getting out first compounds the issues.
Good thing the retirement balances are strong. The damn house is down to making only $400/day.
The "pickleball" house has gone pending for 98.5% of original asking. 3 weeks on market. Let's see if the appraisal hits the number.
Which is the pickleball house?
Which is the pickleball house?
I don't think my stick built ATM has gone up this week. Things don't move as fast in the outback!
Put up three sun sail shades yesterday and no sun today, just a few big rain drops.
>(e.g. owned NVDA in the 20's..got bored with it..sold)
Yep, I did something like that myself with Nvidia.
Don't remember the exact numbers, but it was in the same range.
NVDA. Did the same. Also CC.
Pickleball is 1609 Ramona 93010.
Launch in orbit, booster successfully landed.
Jackson, along with all the awful Indian stuff, paid off the national debt.
First reuse of an orbital vehicle.
Waiting for an Eric Johnson concert to begin...
Up 300$. Hahaha
When the pickleball house records at this price the dawghaus will get a boost.
Good Morning.😀.
Wakey upey.
Good Morning!
Looks like the Islamic nuts strike again. Forrest Gump leadership will take a long time if ever to fix. :(
The concert was okay... He had a young woman named Ariel, not certain of the spelling, open for him and play on a few of his songs. She was pretty good. Johnson is an excellent guitarist, but a marginal singer...
Sorry... Arielle
Even tragedies have their moments. The BBC had an eye witness who emerged from the bar and chased the terrorists throwing bottles at them.
And in a lightbulb moment hopefully I saw the incredulous reaction when someone expressed surprise that terrorists would attack a city with a Muslim mayor.
The BBC had an eye witness who emerged from the bar and chased the terrorists throwing bottles at them.
but the orders were "Run,hide,tell"
Clearly London needs to spend hundreds of millions hardening the London Bridge against pedestrian/vehicle mixing. And more police and more surveillance. And a hugely expensive outreach campaign preaching tolerance. And madras schools for the children.
The Mayor called them barbaric cowards. Exactly the wrong thing. First they weren't cowards. They were motivated and willing to die for what they believed. Every one of their supporters think that brave and noble. Besides barbaric is something they seek to establish as a reputation.
I suggest we propose an airstrike. Openly and without guile. Next year at the annual pilgrimage a fuel air explosion over Mecca at the height of the season. This will give the Muslims a year to explain why this is not a good idea. No doubt their reasons will be many. At which point the west replies "and have you honored any of these respecting our cultures?"
Gun, slide, shell?
Maybe if we have a candlelight march where everybody brings a teddy bear to hug they will stop..
The children of first generation immigrants often feel uncomfortable, and like the being neither here nor there. My Lithuanian girl friend felt that way, but she was never gonna hurt anybody, her parents were peaceful.
She came here at 4 years old from a camp for refugees in germany. He parents lived in a Lithuanian neighborhood, she spoke and read and wroeLithuanian. Her parents did not as simulate and never learned more than a few words of English. She married a guy of mostly English decent and taught her kids Lithuanion. Her kids so far have not been successful, except one, but certainly not murderous.
I knew I didn't belong in Miami when I couldn't get a cheese Danish. And the bakery manager didn't know what it was either.
Teddy bear shortage in England following Manchester two weeks ago.
I've got it...
Let's have a concert!!
Open admission with no security because if we tighten security the terrorists win.
well..heavy security for the performers of course
I can attest first hand to the truth of this article.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20170604/FINANCE_AND_INSURANCE/170609884/-tesla-owners-should-pay-more-for-insurance-aaa-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1
Why are they mad at Emgland? USA I understand.
Just had the best French Toast I ever ate.
In Champaign.
Islam hates "the west" aka the eternal external enemy.
I love French toast.
Feed them all French toast!
salvaged one of three from the Dodgers..still in first place..I'll take it ;<)
Let them eat toast?
You haven't tasted this toast. Best French b toast in the universe. Disthil, in Champaign, illinois.
Up another 200$. Wow
Nitey nite.
Wake up all you slugs.
Trump is losing support in military communities.
Some of us are already at work...
According to whom?
I dunno. Haha. Whatever I clicked on
. Poll numbers were quoted. Sounded legit.
Waiting in teensy airport in Champaign
What happens when the coal guys realize there won't be any more jobs? Cause its not economical. In fact, nobodY could.
Waiting to fly over fly over. Passed a field of corn on way here.
Now there is an Orlando woreplace shooting.. under the bed everyone
It was NBC news.
Anyone out there?
> Anyone out there?
Nope.
On ground in Chicago. Now on to Orlando
Make you seat mates happy - grab a big honking Italian Beef topped with spicy giardiniera and dipped in gravy before you board. And an order of onion rings.
And anyone thinking coal is coming back really needs to re-start the meth lab and dig out the bootleg Oxy, cause that gravy train is dead and gone since natty is so cheap.
Don't forget the extra garlic
Interesting. IIRC, nylon is made from coal tar, the residue from the coking process. Has their been an impact on nylon prices?
Not me. But at leaSt some of those guys need to be directed to high paying jobs, or trained for them. What can I say? Having no job will never win them over.
I almost never wear then any more.Florida. hot, sticky.
Okay, got a few minutes in front of a keyboard. New post. Fair warning: It is not a joke.
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