Friday, June 09, 2017

The Quality Spiral of Nate's 538



Screen shot of a recent fivethirtyeight home page:
Like so many leftists Nate Silver has taken the historic top to bottom ticket losses of 2016 hard.  We saw Hoocoodanode destroyed by people who couldn't even deal with it.  Nate decided to double down with NPR style coverage.  He isn't lying on the things he reports, he just carefully chooses what to cover. Note the last story.  Democrats overperforming in special elections almost everywhere.  Careful wording for still losing but losing by less. 

At least he is still credible in sports forecasting. 

113 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Mike, Bank deregulation is horrible. For example. Dawg agrees on that one We don't need to unease military spending, especially if the Europeans increase theirs

Rob Dawg said...

We need to spend much smarter in the military.

Thing that disappointed me was DeVos submitted a bare bones Dept Ed budget to the Senate and the Republicans said it was DOA. Didn't spend enough.

Lawyerliz said...

Hahaha. What does the Dept of Edu do?
Almist None of these people believe in their supposed ideologies. Sad.

Rob Dawg said...

IMO the Dept Ed should be an office in HUD responsible for holding States accountable for performance and complying with Federal laws vice discrimination, etc. It should also has a modest budget for research, publication and grant awards. IOW a small sub department.

Don't get me started on HUD itself starting with the word "urban."

Cinco-X said...

There are virtually no fiscal conservatives in Congress

LBD said...

Government is people to. Teachers union have ruined education. Vouchers would fix that.

LBD said...

Socialist in a red dresses, what could go wrong?

Rob Dawg said...

On exurban nation the proper form of the question is:

"Eh, What could happen?"

Increasingly is is necessary to append; "Again."

Socialism? -> Venezuela.

Rob Dawg said...

Teacher's unions suffer from the same flaw of all public unions; they actively elect the other side of the table.

The teaching of children as a system has stagnated and the unions are responsible for much of that.

LBD said...

Unions with public education the only game in town setting your own rules and standards. Eh, What could happen, again. See I can learn! Now if I don't forget it. :)

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-defaults-have-spiked-as-lending-standards-fall-2017-6
The American economy has looked pretty robust of late — unemployment just hit a 16-year low, and stocks recently reached an all-time high.

This makes it all the more curious that Americans have suddenly stopped paying off their credit-card bills at a rapid rate.

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-rig-count-baker-hughes-june-9-2017-6
The US oil-rig count rose for a 21st straight period this week, the longest streak in at least three decades, underscoring that robust shale production continues to keep global oil supplies higher than demand.

The oil-rig count rose by eight to 741, the highest level since April 10, 2015, data from Baker Hughes showed. The number of gas rigs rose by three to 185. With miscellaneous rigs unchanged at one, the total rig count rose by 11 to 927.

Rob Dawg said...

Cinco. Even me, as a struggling lower middle class (hi Liz!) home debtor I must have close to 6 digits in theoretical zero or ultra low interest credit card spending available. Where would I put it? The baby has a point that taking the 14mpg land yacht '98 Expedition to college may not be optimal but all in the beast has been wickedly cheap per mile so far. But a cute small SUV like a RAV4 or Escape or the nice Hyundai equivalent is only a couple grand. I'd keep the dinosaur in the driveway to haul the brush trailer, pull stumps and evict tenants.

Cinco-X said...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tim-cook-challenges-mit-grads-will-serve-humanity-153103873.html


The internet, he said, “can also be a place where basic rules of decency are suspended and pettiness and negativity can thrive. Don’t let that noise knock you off course.” Cook added: “Don’t listen to trolls and for God’s sake don’t become one.”

Rob Dawg said...

Tim Cook doesn't sit right with me. Too much of a above it all in his attitude.

Rob Dawg said...

The EIA predicts US oil (equiv) production will be at an all time high this year or next. So much for King Hubbert. There's a reason "The Oil Drum" shut down.

Rob Dawg said...

> This makes it all the more curious that Americans have suddenly stopped paying off their credit-card bills at a rapid rate.

Pretty sure the people getting recent credit were/are exactly the same terrible risks they were years ago with the only exception that old defaults are starting to fall away.

Rob Dawg said...

And yes, I see the coming auto loan crisis. I welcome it even as I hold Ford stock. Yes, defaults will be epic. Yes, lots of money is involved. Different is that cars can be repossed in a night with a tow truck. So what if the new car market suffers? The auto lending subsidiaries will have quality products they can sell for a profit AND still go after with collections.

Cinco-X said...

Besides, he's an Auburn fan...

Lawyerliz said...

About to have Mri paid for by medicare. Thanks begrudgingly fellow posters and the rest of.the taxpayers.
My cost 5$.

Cinco-X said...

Ya... I can't wait until I qualify. I'll retire that very moment...

Lawyerliz said...

Hi, upper middle class, at least person.

Rob Dawg said...

@jackschofield

Even the Tronc-owned right-leaning @LATimes - not part of the "liberal" media -- says you are unmatched for lying

-----

Can you believe there are people so far left they perceive the LA Times to be right-leaning? An intervention is needed.

Rob Dawg said...

If I were even marginally middle class I wouldn't need to clean out rentals personally. Right? Vacation in two weeks would be the Park Plaza not Park City.

Really Liz, modest roots, modest shoots.

Cinco-X said...

Nah... They just need to keep doing what they're doing

UMDan said...

The "Oil Drum" web page. Logged in and watched the underwater cameras showing oil spewing into the Gulf and the repair efforts associated with the Deepwater Horizon event. Lots of interesting comments at the time.

Lawyerliz said...

Uh-hunh. Sure. You are frugal/ cheap. What would it cost to can a rental? 100 or 200$ ?

Lawyerliz said...

Clean.

Lawyerliz said...

I would go to NYC, and stay somewhere slightly reasonable on the theory that I'll have little time in the hotel room anyway.

Lawyerliz said...

They gave me Valium for the mri. Feel slightly weird. I stand by my frugality comment.

Cinco-X said...

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-MM-0617.pdf

Pee-Dee-Eff warning...

UMDan said...

WE'RE #1! WE'RE #1! And I am in this pool!

Chicago leads the nation in underwater homes
In the first quarter, more than 160,000 local homeowners owed more than their property was worth.

More local homeowners are underwater on their mortgages than in any​ metro area in the nation, according to a new report.

In the first quarter, 162,613 Chicago-area homeowners owed more on their home than the property was worth, according to data CoreLogic provided exclusively to Crain's by CoreLogic.

The next highest number of underwater loans is about half that: 85,790 in the New York area, according to CoreLogic, a property information company.

However, CoreLogic treats Miami and Ft. Lauderdale as separate areas. When combined into one Metropolitan Statistical Area, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management & Budget, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale has 112,926 underwater mortgages.

LBD said...

"Uh-hunh. Sure. You are frugal/ cheap. What would it cost to can a rental? 100 or 200$ "

That's way to cheap now days even here you can't hardly get it done for that. Then if they can't clean there is usually damage or at least repaint after the cleaning.

Rob Dawg said...

Chicago is IMO headed to formal restructuring. They won't call it actual bankriotcy but the effect will be the same.

Nota bene. I liked bankriotcy so much I kept it.

Nota bene addenda. I love readers who don't need to be told what nota bene means.

Cinco-X said...

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2017/06/09/americas_real_red_scare__112380.html
When I was a young lieutenant in the Air Force, in 1986 if memory serves, I attended a secret briefing on the Soviet Union...I wasn’t allowed to take notes during that briefing, but I remember the impression I was left with: that the USSR was deeply authoritarian, a grim surveillance state with an economy dependent on global weapons sales; that it was intent on nuclear domination; that it was imperialist and expansionist; that it persecuted its critics and dissidents; and that it had serious internal problems carefully suppressed in the cause of world mastery, including rampant alcohol and drug abuse, bad health care and declining longevity (notably for men), a poisoned environment, and an extensive prison system featuring gulags. All of this was exacerbated by festering sores overseas, especially a costly and stalemated war in Afghanistan and client-states that absorbed its resources (think: Cuba) while offering little in return.

This list of Soviet problems, vintage 1986, should have a familiar ring to it, since it sounds uncannily like a description of what’s wrong with the United States today.


Let me assure you that the biggest threat to the "American Way" is liberals and progressives in this country, not Russia...

Cinco-X said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-comey-lied-under-oath-testify-2017-6

TRUMP: Comey lied about what I said, and I'm '100%' willing to be questioned under oath about it

What a dumbass...he ought to know better than to testify under oath. That's where they'll get him, not on anything done up to this point...

Rob Dawg said...

Under oath for a President isn't the same as for regular people. They get to circumscribe the subject matter.

Lawyerliz said...

He is, however, a fool

Rob Dawg said...

Defeated 15 Republicans and two Democrats and the amassed combined western media and is a billionaire and the photo child for jerk in the dictionary. I don't see fool in that mix.

Cinco-X said...

Ya... Needs to be protected from himself

Cinco-X said...

There's still time...

Lawyerliz said...

House working hard. Up 350$.

Lawyerliz said...

Ok jerk. Fool to believe money is everything. I'm ashamed that we elected him as president. Too. Makes Americans look like fools.

Rob Dawg said...

Okay now I am scared. Nordstrom exploring going private because it is no longer a going concern and Kohl's oops 7%. FD I own neither but profited from KSS in the lad year.

Cinco-X said...

Electing a second Clinton would've done the same. The first was bad enough

Lawyerliz said...

Nordstrom s not a going concern??? Not that I've been in there more than once or twice.
Specify why you are scared?

Lawyerliz said...

Well I didn't like her, but neither Bernie nor Teddy Roosevelt were on the ballot.

Mike said...

Bank deregulation is horrible. (sorry been out all day)

and bank over-regulation is horrible also. Completely strangles the economy. Dodd-Frank has hurt the smaller banks much more than the big guys. The big guys can afford the compliance expenses..the small ones can't.

So tuning up DF (keep what's good...change what's bad) is a good thing..which I believe is what Trump has advocated.

Rob Dawg said...

> "..Not that I've been in there more than once or twice.
Specify why you are scared?"


Exactly. If ever there were a perfect storm of appealing to a segment, location and changing buying patterns it would be Nordstrom's.

Mike said...

I personally think the guvvie should get out of the deposit insurance business altogether..then we wouldn't have to worry much about banks at all.(no more than any other business) Maybe offer standard savings/checking accounts thru the post office (ala Japan)..be a nice low cost source of funding for UST.

If the banks want to offer savings accounts also..then they will have to make it clear they are not federally insured...they can put together some kind of industry insurance program (like brokerage accounts have).

Lawyerliz said...

I read something that said they were doing big ly average. But buying back shares. so, 'splain.

Lawyerliz said...

I don't think Miami has a Norstroms, but Boston has and I went in.

Lawyerliz said...

I have heard.that program wasn't particularly good

EngineerJim said...

>What a dumbass...he ought to know better than to testify under oath. That's where they'll get him, not on anything done up to this point...

That was my reaction also. President Comey, I mean Bush, I mean Clinton, I mean Trump (that's it) is definitely a dumbass.

EngineerJim said...

>Nordstrom s not a going concern???

My wife has assured me that Nordstrom is definitely a going concern.

EngineerJim said...

>They get to circumscribe the subject matter.

Yeah, and Bill Clinton got to question the meaning of "is".

Rob Dawg said...

Jim. Great riff on our California Senator who is giving McBrainless of AZ competition in the Elderlympics.

Rob Dawg said...

We used to joke about the Nordstrom's Half Yearly sales as Halfy Early. Seeing as I am still so poor that I wear shoes I purchased from Filene's basement in 1978 I do not see a future for Nordstrom's. Nite the Filene's store in downtown Boston is long since closed as well.

Mike said...

Nordstrom Rack might be worth more than the Nordstrom (Classic) stores at this point..

Cinco-X said...

Is she keeping it in business?

Lawyerliz said...

Filenes Basement sold marked down high class stuff. You are cheap not poor.

Lawyerliz said...

I'd bet your house equity alone would get you in the top 20%. At least.

Lawyerliz said...

Really top quality shoes can last a very long time
, if you get them resoled, etc.

EngineerJim said...

>Is she keeping it in business?

Seems like that's her goal sometimes.

EngineerJim said...

>Great riff on our California Senator

Actually it was Pelosi who on several occasions, has called out "President Bush" when she meant President Trump. But Difi seems to be suffering from dementia also.

Rob Dawg said...

Oh yes. Because I am so frugal I have two pairs of wingtip black dress shoes that way I can rotate them and they last much longer than if you had to wear the same pair every all the time. And yes the Filene's pair is almost through a second sole.

Lawyerliz said...

That's the kind the hub wears. But he wears sandals and crap shoes to work in the yard. You don't wear those to garden or build bathrooms right?

Lawyerliz said...

It looks dry enough to ull weeds today I'm sure I have plenty.
Any ody want to place a bet as to whether Trump will testify?? 100$ to favorites charity?

Lawyerliz said...

Wake up east coast!

Rob Dawg said...

Costco sneakers. One still in the box. Three pair in rotation. One in pristine condition. One for everyday and light gardening. An end of lifecycle grunge pair for dirty work. Losing the worst pair soon. Two in rotation good/yard is normal.

Rob Dawg said...

Speaking of Costco.

https://m.costco.com/Feit-48ft.-LED-Outdoor-Weatherproof-Color-Changing-String-Light-Set%2c-Black.product.100306514.html

Best $210 spent. Makes the yard look awesome.

Lawyerliz said...

Hahahaha ire evidence.

Lawyerliz said...

More evidence.

Lawyerliz said...

House lazy so far.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Speaking of cheapo, Just finished the first jet ski and it's worth at least twice what I have in it for parts. A second one finds me and the same cost to fix. What's not to like, Gamble of profit or loss, fun working on machines, tax avoidance vs buying new, and lot of fun fishing and playing. Might end up with Walleye for dinner. Way more fun then just buying a one new. :)

Lawyerliz said...

Yay for fun!!!

Lawyerliz said...

Must garden.

Mike said...

Costco sneakers???!!! You lucky b*stard!!

Pre-worn sneakers from Value Village up here..

Mike said...

and lot of fun fishing and playing.

you fish from a jet ski???

LBD said...

Fish don't have a clue. :)

Yes it's a big deal in NZ and the gulf and East coast. One of my mine is 11' long, 4' wide. Very stable and fast as any bass boat.

This is a full blown set up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D68GLuxQns

I am just starting with a couple of PVC rod holders and a simple fish finder, home made trolling motor, Cooler and others miscellaneous stuff to round it out. I love repurposing junk.

Rob Dawg said...

Here is the long list of essentials for a fishing craft:
1. Cooler
2... ummm I'm drawing a blank

Rob Dawg said...

More evidence of what? Shop at Costco. Wait for a coupon. Upgraded to the LED version to save electricity. Evidence I'm still part Yankee?

Lawyerliz said...

Won't be able to keep the weed pulling much longer. Too hot, too humid. Must weed Neary ever single day to keep up. Didn't for over a week. Between heavy rains and being away, the weeds got a head start. I usual quit by this time or before, actally. BY the time I start again, in Oct or Nov, it's all overgrown again.

Rob Dawg said...

I have a buddy who bought 10 pair Rod Laver tennis sneakers $7 or $8 from Costco circa 1985. Almost lasted him into the new century.

LBD said...

BEER! coolers can be used for holding fish, easily made into a live well or me a reason to build a pvc rack for rod holders, tackle, ect. This is going to wreck some old timers minds minds here in the flat lands. LOL!

Lawyerliz said...

Sorry for bad spelling.

Lawyerliz said...

Cool.

Rob Dawg said...

Laying the guilt trip heavy today Liz. Now I have to go weed.

Rob Dawg said...

Wait. Wot? There's -fish- involved in a fishing boat? There are others uses for a cooler besides beer? This is a fascinating whole world opening up. How long has this been going on?

Lawyerliz said...

Well you heavily taxed Kalians don't have the heat and humidity.

Lawyerliz said...

Trump do anything weird yet today?

Mike said...

you should hook a net up to the back of your jet ski...just cruise around all day catching fish almost by accident...

Mike said...

it's Saturday Liz..you should give your TDS a day off..

Lawyerliz said...

During the non weeding week a chunk of saw grass went from nothing to 3 1/2 feet. Kinda amazing.

Lawyerliz said...

!!!!! Sorry fishie, it wasn't me it was the ski!!!

Mike said...

then again..you'd probably have about 50 birds following you around everywhere you go on your jet ski once they figure out what you're doing...

Lawyerliz said...

TDS HAS 250 meanings. Technical difficulties?

Lawyerliz said...

Hahahaha

Mike said...

Trump Derangement Syndrome ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

Noe spelin moniters hear. Don't worry.

Some of the tomato plants are growing 4" per day. Strangely a couple nearby are dying despite equal treatment. If the sun comes out I will post pics.

Mike said...

can be very serious if not treated..we seem to be losing a couple "comedians"/CNN anchors a week to the dreaded disease...

Rob Dawg said...

The string lights have a Red-White-Blue cycle. MAGA!

N.B. I cannot use the Red only mode. Drives the hummers insane.

Mike said...

I'm surprised your HOA let's you hang those up... ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

Honey Of Authority!

Mike said...

Board Meetings = one person

LBD said...

Nets are a no, no. Not just jet skis, Kayak fishing has been around for some time as well. Long term project is a 2 person water heater tank "Pond Tune boat" with a stereo, Dewalt drill motor and weed wacker lower end for power. Launch and transported from my pick up.

LBD said...

HOA Honey of Authority. Got steal that one!

No weed pulling here, out to ride around on the lawn tractor and spray them!

Mike said...

we need to get you a show on the DIY network LBD..

those sound like cool projects

Mike said...

ok..beautiful morning..so off for a morning bike ride for me. Unfortunately all the weekend knuckleheads will be out today...so the trail will be busy (I get spoiled by riding during the week).

Reward is grabbing a "to-go" growler of my favorite craft brew from the local brewery at the end..

Have a great Saturday everyone!!

Cinco-X said...

So I guess Dynamite is out too...

Cinco-X said...

Don't worry my son...I got him with the door...

Cinco-X said...

Adam West has died...

Rob Dawg said...

New post.