Friday, October 30, 2009

Valuable $250 Coupon Inside!

2010 Audi R8 5.2 Coupe -
Date: 2009-10-23, 5:50PM PDT
Bodystyle: 2 door Coupe
Engine: 5.2L V-10cyl
Ext. Color: Phantom Black
Int. Color: Ebony Stock
Number: AX00029
Model Code: 42352B

Print out this page for a $250 discount at dealer. Vehicle service history and Car Fax available.

LOL! $250! Asking price? $168,650.
Craigslist ad here.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

A Tale of Two Neighbors Part 1 The Ranchos

The paths to putting houses in strong hands are varied and interesting. Here we have two neighbors that have taken roads less travelled. This is the Somis Area of Ventura County.

Our two market competitors are in the lower left:
5577 La Cumbre Rd
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $750,000
SQ. FT.: 3,631 $/SQ. FT.: $207
LOT SIZE: 2.16 Acres

And at the upper right:
4386 Palomino Dr
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $628,300
BEDS: 4 BATHS: 2.5
SQ. FT.: 2,486 $/SQ. FT.: $253
LOT SIZE: 0.66 Acres

Now look at the differences in their descriptions.
La Cumbre
Short Sale: Subject to Lender Approval. Great value property in rural Somis, Horses Allowed! Spanish Ranch Style 4 Bedroom/4 Bath single level home with in-ground pool on two acres. Family and Living rooms. Game room includes a wet bar. This home is clean. Multiple fruit trees. Home sets on back of part of acreage. Call your Realtor today and schedule a private showing!
Just REDUCED over $56,000! Exceptional opportunity for this gated corner lot property with over 1/2 acre and views front and rear from front & rear balconies/deck. Property is dated, but in good condition. 4 car garage with 1 tandem space plus an RV garage and plenty more room for storage. All bedrooms upstairs. Great potential. .. great area. Property is sold as is and buyer is responsible for any & all inspections.
50% more house in obviously better condition on 3x the land and privacy. No contest here especially since Palomino all but screams that there are structural problems. It probably isn't an oversight that it wasn't picked up by the aggressive third party buyers for a flip. The question is whether La Cumbre is really a short sale that isn't obvious from the records and whether it will eventually go back to the bank for an even better deal.

In part 2 we'll graduate from rachos to a pair of nearby neighboring ranches.

Gas Up Diesel Down

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(Business Wire)--
Betty T. Yee, Chairwoman of the Board of Equalization (BOE), today released
gasoline and diesel consumption figures for July 2009.California gasoline demand
rose by 2.2 percent
in July compared to the same month of the previous year.
Demand for on-road diesel fell a substantial 11.2 percent in July from the same
period in 2008.

Up 2.2% is okay but diesel off 11.2% is a flashing danger sign for the economy.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Alright it is behind us

There's at least another 50 years to go. Advice as to what to talk about will be appreciated.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

CRE Overbuilding

LATimes this morning:
The exodus from office buildings that started in late 2007 accelerated during the third quarter as the anemic business climate took its toll on the real estate rental industry, according to the Cushman & Wakefield real estate brokerage.
"These vacancies are a direct reflection on unemployment," said Joe Vargas, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield. "Companies continue to reduce their workforce, or they are not hiring."

Snark translation: Thank you for choosing Cushman & Wakefield. We know you have many choices when analyzing the Southern California CRE market and we are dedicated to making your meal here with us a pleasant one. One note; the entire company is a hopium smoking section for your convienence. On the menu this morning ; one large cup of denial, buttered statistics, a steaming bowl of hypocrisy. For the main course; only the finest hand packed sausage made from the same secret ingredient entrails that go into our projections. For dessert; dollops of a most distracting concoction, blame of unemployment, is piled on top of the truth of overbuilding so that the resulting melange simply transcends understanding. We call it hoocoodanode parfait. And for your entertainment your server will read from his latest book.

IMO SoCal CRE suffers more from shadow overcapacity than does RRE. There were a lot of perfect storm trends that came together to produce this historic imbalance. Those general trends can be broken down into several categories. Economic, demographic, geographic, sociological, technological and competitive. We can spend hours on any but just an example of competitive. The Oxnard Target store is moving. A whole 1/2 mile across the freeway, further away from its cachement locus. Why? Because if they don't a competitor might take that new space and predate their customers. Now you've got a surplus full size Target store close to the core of a large population center.

Ventura Star story:
The closure of Oxnard’s existing Target will increase the barren surroundings of the area, which has seen its share of shuttered businesses: 24 Hour Fitness next door to Target; the abandoned Wagon Wheel area across Oxnard Boulevard; and a nearby boarded-up building that formerly housed Levitz.

Curtis Cannon, the city’s community development director, said he’s not concerned.

The green arrow is the new Target location:

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Adequate Coverage

Modern man a wimp says anthropologist

Some Tutsi men in Rwanda exceeded the current world high jump record of 2.45 metres during initiation ceremonies in which they had to jump at least their own height to progress to manhood.

Any Neanderthal woman could have beaten former bodybuilder and current California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in an arm wrestle.

These and other eye-catching claims are detailed in a book by Australian anthropologist Peter McAllister entitled ‘Manthropology’ and provocatively sub-titled ‘The Science of the Inadequate Modern Male.’

McAllister sets out his stall in the opening sentence of the prologue.

‘If you’re reading this then you — or the male you have bought it for — are the worst man in history.

Perhaps but evolution doth hath its advantages.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Another Late Party Arrival

This one is a hoot. It's like the last 3 years never happened.

Modest 1/2 acre golf course house. Nice if dated. Purchased 05/08/2008: $855,000. Across the street from a recent comp 10% less. So, what do you do when you overpay? Go pergraniteel wild of course.

Here's a before shot:

And after:

Can you say over-improved? The first flip strategy was to "rent." For some reason there was a dearth of applications at $4500/month. Oh well, those months empty only served to add to the appreciation of the investment. Right?

Thus the new wishing price: $1,899,000
Yup, tack a 1 to the front and let's go fishing. I mean if you don't want to rent for $4500 then you can buy for only $400,000 down and $8,000 per month instead.

Late to the Party

Gee, did I miss anything? you know, like the biggest bubble in modern history?

Wait, I've got a couple of circa 2005 attitude beauties that need sellin':

rm and gracious home of over 4230 sq. ft. with vaulted wood ceilings throughout combine with expansive lighting to enhance the wood tones of the glowing maple flooring. Open floor plan with 5 bedrooms, 5 1/2 baths, antique wall fixtures blend with the inviting comfort of the home's decor. Interior activities flow to the exterior activities and multiple patios, including the unusual BBQ pit which allows seating around the perimeter with moving tractor seats. A prime grove of avocados with good well water for irrigation + Ventura County Waterworks for domestic use. A steel arena, custom stalls, 3 covered feed areas, Round pen + deck, oversize tack room, custom built wash rack, trails, enclosed dog runs, workshop, fencing, 2-400 Amp electic panels, landscaped areas with mature trees, 32 x 30 Breezeway, 7 X 80 front porch, Guest house approximately 540 sq. ft. , a workers residence of approx. 1500 sq, ft. Flat area + knoll with viewing deck to enjoy the valley and ocean views.

OCEAN EFFIN' Views? The curvature of the earthe takes care of that. Jeez.
And this poor sod:
Apple Ave.
Beautiful newer home in Wrightwood. Home built in 2008, this home features 3 bedrooms with two full bathrooms. The home has a large living room with fireplace for cozy winter nights with an open kitchen area. There are two inside laundry rooms and a large 2 car garage. The exterior features a wrap around deck with views of the mountains. This home is a must see.

See the similarities? Ouch.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Wrightwood Burning

ABC 7 here.

Rim of the World coverage here.

LA Times.

Ghoulish comment. Mmmmm, smells like cheap houses.