"Christopher Thornberg, who says the Southern California housing market is a bubble beginning to pop, has left UCLA Anderson Forecast to strike out on his own."
"Look at what your house was valued at three years ago and what it is now. Is it really worth 70% more? The answer is no," he said. "There is no way you can justify the math."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-thornberg15aug15,1,4462297.story?coll=la-mininav-business
18 comments:
Just a polite suggestion -- if you want to post a URL then first run it through www.tinyurl.com and post the shortened version.
Yeah, I'm a big advocate, was a very early adopter. Look at the post time, I was just sleepy/sloppy/lazy.
Even better, use the "a href" tag and embed the link.
Like this.
..."There is no way you can justify the math." Here's the article.
Osman,
If I could manage to be polite and helpful I could be a realtor. I don't know how you good ones do it. I do know how the "bloohound" type guys do it but I'd never put you in the same category. I shall see to improve myself. The typing and presentation skills development are part of my motivation after all. And no, spelling is not a priority in my life.
Young Chris should have fun finding clients willing to pay him to tell them how fecked their local economies are because the housing market isn't behaving as his model says it should.
Btw, the Ventura July median is, what, $55k higher YoY?
Hee, hee. Yeah, people pay tons of money to be told they are stupid and the future is bleak by someone who was wrong about bursting for three years followed by being wrong about the year the bubble did finally burst. Made 80% in lumber options in 10 days, lost 40% in cotton. Love my broker, hate my broker. But enough about me. Yes, Ventura median is up 9.5%/$55k YoY. I can wax for hours. What about the number piques your interest? The low end is missing. The middle end is moribund. The high end which always takes longer to cool shifts the centriod. Absolutely expected.
"What about the number piques your interest?"
Nothing really, except perhaps how enormously far they would have to fall to give back even one lousy year of gains.
I'm not bragging, just reporting my personal circumstance. Were it true that the median were as report YoY to date these last 12 months would have been the lowest since I bought in Jul '95. 9.5% would theoretically represent $350 per day over that one year period. My PITI is less than a typical 2br apt rent. That's right, more than a million in theoretical appreciation. Prices falling 80% would after taxes still leave me with a profit. Me and everyone who bought 10 years ago. 50%? Me and everyone who bought before 2001. Doesn't work that way in the real world anymore than the theoretical appreciation I just mentioned was real. 887 people bought last month. 20 don't give a sh!t, trust fund babies. 100 make so much money it is a bookkeeping issue. 200 will suck up the pain and persevere. 567 are so far up sh!ts creek Lewis and Clark wouldn't dare try find them. Regress those percentages for the last year. My housekeeper (legal, green card) and her husband "bought" last October. No way this can end in anything less than disaster. Well, the Chinese word for crisis and oportunity are one and the same. I won't notice. I sold all except personal use real estate and anything else that could remotely be RE related except, in the abstract, the laddered CDs. Hey, if those go there's nothing for anybody so don't go criticizing. I'll buy three times as many SFRs/Duplexes in a few years with the profits from this last cycle.
uhm, k bye.
"Absolutely expected."
So that would be the "Denial Stage" you are in.
Denial? Absolutely not. The median rising in a shifted market is a mathematical artifact. I expected this artifact and discussed it in advance. Of course any one same sales price is dropping, the shift in sales content just makes the median look higher.
cotton futures have tumbled because there has been a basic change in yield growth starting in 2004/05. Look at the 04/05 and 05/06 August USDA production estimates and then compare them to final estimates. Now look at conditions over the same period.
I estimated over a 20 million bale crop before the August report while the trade was looking for 19.3 Numbers keep looking for over 20 million bales, and watch the chinese crop.....
Hightower is insisting that the crop will stink. TAMU seems to agree:
http://agnews.tamu.edu/dailynews/stories/CROP/Aug0106a.htm
My only saving possibilty is that I am out to December. Lots of time to get my skin back, I hope.
"Denial? Absolutely not."
Denial about the "Denial Stage". That's bordering on the "Anger Stage" then.
What part of 20% immediately followed by minus 7% per year for at least several years is denial? I can't help you with your reading comprehension if that looks like denial to you.
how fitting robert, you sold every one of your extra RE holdings while your housekeeper bought into the market. that's why you are you and she is, well, your housekeeper.
"that's why you are you and she is, well," a stupid little brown person?
Ahhh the shield of anonymity. Refuge of idjits and racists. Ocrenter has it right. I didn't sell the personal use properties, only the investment properties. She didn't buy for investment either so we are now of equal standing. Unfortunately for many people in this area the only way to make ownership work is by including some form of substantial return on the money spent. When taxes alone are going to run $550 per month on the median home people must have some expectation of getting something out at the other end. Dangerous assumption.
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