Thursday, November 06, 2008

What Is It About 8800?


Decisions, decisions and the market indecision. There is no good news. None, I've looked for it. The closest we've got to good news is that oil prices are fairly valued. Unfortunately that has the perverse effect in suppressing new vehicle demand as substitution to higher mileage vehicles is less beneficial. As to the stock market; P/E is again overvalued as the E denominator gets crushed. We had a brief foray below 8800 only to return and then a brief foray to well above only to return. Will we walk this ledge for a while? That's been my guess but now Iadd that I see no viable upside only downside.

11 comments:

Property Flopper said...

FIRST!!!

No comment, just the first.

w said...

First Real Comment!

Arnold starts the taxation parade.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D949JELG1&show_article=1

Rob Dawg said...

Arnie admits to $11.2 billion close to my prediction for this month. He wants a "temporary" 1.5% sales tax increase. That would put LA County at 10.25%!

Peripheral Visionary said...

10.25%! Wow, that's as high as District sales taxes.

Of course, even with those taxes and the Federal money, the District is still in the hole . . .

serinitis said...

A quick summary would be $2B, in state spending cuts, $2.5B in school spending cuts, $4B in tax increases and $2.5B in fairy dust.

The state spending cuts are relatively painless and should have been done a while ago. The schools will have to take some hits in this economy so I don't consider those cuts bad either.

The $4B in tax increases will be interesting to pass and I am not certain how much fairy dust is still left to spread around.

Peripheral Visionary said...

"As goes California, so goes the rest of the nation"

A large and formerly prosperous state, with a popular and charismatic executive, a chaotic and corrupt one-party legislature, and collapsing economy headed straight into the teeth of a vicious funding crisis the likes of which has not been seen in a lifetime. California is not unique as much as it is ahead of the rest of the nation.

Rob Dawg said...

10.25% IMO jumps the Laffer curve and returns less money.

Keep in mind the current deficit is $14b not the $11.2b Arnie admits to. Unless they find $10b in cuts, real cuts nothing else matters. That means teachers and cops. He's too much of a girlie man to do that.

Aaron said...

I'm so glad I live in the DC area. Change in administration will mean turnover in housing to an extent. dems usually bring more folks to town then repubs. Although the past 8 years the repubs look more like the dems in terms of spending so there may be no effect. At any rate it's going to suck for most for the foreseeable future.

Sun said...

"Although the past 8 years the repubs look more like the dems in terms of spending "

Bwhaha, that's an understatement - I think DC has been around 1 or 2 for "economic growth" for the past several years - but let's just say no one is making widgets here.

@Rob
yes - the Arnster is a girlie man. But governors and politicians often find ways - blue ribbon commission anyone? (think BRAC)No names, no faces.

Property Flopper said...

Hey - Any updates on Casey? He's past his "30 days to make sink or swim" and, obviously he sunk - who couldn't have predicted that?

Is he homeless at this point or did he go slinking back to live on his parents couch?

con said...

"Is he homeless at this point or did he go slinking back to live on his parents couch?"

Hmm, time for a stakeout or driveby to spot the silver '96 Prelude at parents' place. Hey Ratlab, you still there to do the honors?