This poor house has burned its first owner and now it is burning the bank. Probably something to do with the $9000 taxes and multithousand dollar annual HOA fees. But this isn't about the house but about just how bad Zillow has gotten as an estimator of property values. When the bank took this back at $340k zillow didn't believe it. They thought it was worth more. $394,000.
Redfin knows better becasuse the bank is having trouble selling it: 337 Kiawah River Dr Oxnard, CA 93036 Price: $247,000 BEDS: 4 BATHS: 3 SQ. FT.: 2,084 $/SQ. FT.: $119 LOT SIZE: - # OF ROOMS: 8 YEAR BUILT: 2007 COMMUNITY: OXNARD COUNTY: Ventura LISTING #: 3661102 SOURCE: Bank-Listed Foreclosures STATUS: Bank Owned ON REDFIN: 61 days ---- So. What does Zillow have to say about a house built in 2006? Here let them tell you with their price graph going back to 1999:
It was pointed out that rising interest rates reflect on home purchase prices. How much? Check these out. 5% is $5.36/$1,000 borrowed. At ~13% that's doubled. In other words what once cost $1,000 now needs to cost $500 to keep payments the same. Be sure to look at the total life payments figures as well.
People are talking about home prices making a "round trip." Well here's a peach that is sitting with 1994 prices. A month on market and still for sale. 1685 Twin Lakes Wrightwood, CA 92397 $131,000 2 Bed, 2 Bath | 1,179 Sq Ft on 0.14 Acres (6,000 Sq Ft Lot) | MLS ID #374968
Sale History 07/01/2009: $165,251 * (back to the bank) 02/15/1994: $127,500
And what does Zillow think?: Zestimate: $235,000 30-day change: -$3,000 Value Range: $159,800 - $253,800
How can they ever expect to be taken seriously.
This house should cost $700/month to buy and rent for $800. 3 years ago this would have sold for $250k.
What? you thought it was over? As predicted the Counties are screaming. LATimes:
Less than 24 hours after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders announced a plan to close California's massive budget deficit, Los Angeles County officials moved to sue the state, a union for government workers said it might strike, and Republicans threatened to back out of the deal over a provision to cut the number of prison inmates by 27,000.
---- Shocked, shocked i tell you. And another budget buster CalPERS lost 23.4% last year. Expect another $25b contribution from taxpayers to retirees.
The budget deal is dead. No, not from a vote, not from the secret revenue projections leaking. not from the municipalities revolting. not from the bond markets closing. No, this from CalPERS who today released 2009 performance. 23% declines in assets. Correction; 23% declines in acknowledged loses to assets. What that means is that according to "the rules" the State and municipalities need to make them whole again. Ain't gonna happen.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System reported a decline of 23.4% for its latest fiscal year ending in June, marking its worst year ever.
The pension fund saw its value fall by $56 billion from the previous fiscal year to $180.9 billion.
"The result is not a surprise," Joe Dear, Calpers chief investment officer, said in a prepared statement. "The System has more than enough cash through contributions and income from investments to meet our present liabilities."
Still, Calpers has signaled to its members that they should expect higher contribution rates in the future to make up for market losses.
Some of Calpers's worst-performing assets were private or "alternative" investments, which have attracted the interest of many public pensions and endowments in recent years. Real estate was hardest hit, falling an estimated 35.8%, and private equity was next in line with a 31.4% decline. Figures for both of these categories reflected the 12-month period ending in March.
Cash, up 1.4%, and the fund's global fixed-income, which earned 0.6%, were the only reported assets to finish higher.
The value of the fund dipped as low as $160 billion in March before rebounding by about $20 billion in the final three months of the fiscal year, according to Calpers.
Separately, the California State Teachers' Retirement System, the second-largest public fund, reported a preliminary decline of 25% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, with its market value of assets falling to $118.8 billion.
Quiet. too quiet. Finally it seems the idiots in Sacramento are coming to the realization that none of the knobs on their instrument panel are capable of changing the reality outside. Doubtless careful followers were expecting a breakthrough last night as the weekend staff marathon produced a workable budget for the gang of 5 to endorse and then stuff down the State's gullet.
What happened? Short answer; the numbers don't add up. Just like February except no do over in 3 months.
No news except I continue to see a weird stalemate. Two pilots fighting over control to chose the crash site. No links because there's nothing that qualifies as news or content. Believe me, I tried.
Little Cabins In the Sky two Wrightwood fantasy offerings. First: 1600 Betty St, Wrightwood, CA 92397 Price: $182,000 BEDS: 2 BATHS: 1 SQ. FT.: 780 $/SQ. FT.: $233 ---- Where are we today, 9 months later? Foreclosure. Asking $115.000. Not selling.
Then there's the Lazurus Long of the mountains:
Meanwhile a few blocks over we have the patient investor: 1446 Laura St, Wrightwood, CA 92397 Price: $299,000 BEDS: 3 BATHS: 2 SQ. FT.: 1,152 $/SQ. FT.: $260 ---- Today: 839 dys on market. Recent price reduction: $265k.
This idiot started at $344k in April 2007. They'll be lucky to get 40% of that eventually.
HT to "w" but face it, we all saw this one coming years ago. Economy delays RiverPark retail center in Oxnard Ventura County Star reports:
Work on The Collection — which will include a 50,000-square-foot Whole Foods Market, a 16-screen Century Theatres cineplex and an REI store — has slowed, reflecting the pace of the economy as a whole, said Colm Makem, president of Shea Properties, the developer.
“We’ve moved the opening to the fall of 2010,” Makem said Monday. “Basically to reflect the slowdown in the economy and that’s why you’re seeing a slowdown in the construction.”
The company, which has other commercial and residential developments in California, Arizona and Colorado, has had to adjust work on those projects as well. The hope is the opening of The Collection will correspond with the upturn in the economy.
“We own a lot of real estate and we’re trying to pace the development with the economy,” Makem said. “Most economic forecasts are showing a turnaround in 2010.”
---- Another Oxnard Albatross. Backgrounder from 2003 ArchNewsNow.
One of these is not like the other: Acutually I suspect there are a lot like this. It reads like the entire California bubble. Round trip to 1996?
Property History for 2050 Ironbark Dr: Date Event Price Appreciation Source Jul 11, 2009 Price Changed $259,000 -- VCRDS #90011584 Jul 10, 2009 Listed $299,000 -- VCRDS #90011584 Apr 03, 2008 Sold $360,000 -35.3%/yr Public Records Mar 22, 2008 Delisted Jan 17, 2008 Price Changed Dec 12, 2007 Price Changed Nov 08, 2007 Price Changed Oct 07, 2007 Price Changed Sep 09, 2007 Listed Jul 16, 2007 Sold $491,807 -13.6%/yr Public Records Jul 09, 2007 Delisted Mar 09, 2007 Delisted Mar 09, 2007 Price Changed Jan 01, 2007 Listed Jan 01, 2007 Listed Jan 24, 2006 Sold $610,000 67.8%/yr Public Records Feb 12, 2002 Sold $79,000 -12.5%/yr Public Records Oct 16, 1996 Sold $161,000 -- Public Records ---- Like sands in an hourglass, so are the days of our lives.
• Monterey doing it right. • Environazis continue oblivious. • Tax increases are now classified as closing loopholes. • AARP has a new way to say; tax somebody else. • SFChron presumes to speak for the Republicans. ---- Pay no attention to the bloviation out of Sacramento. The North Vietnamese and US are still discussing the shape of the table.
"Pending Sales" == "The check is in the mail." When Realtors® start paying income taxes on their pendings rather than their closings I'll start paying attention to pendings. - Posted by: Rob Dawg | Jun 9, 2008 11:28:22 AM (on The Big Picture)
The National Association of Realtors is trumpeting a fourth consecutive monthly gain in their report of pending home sales. The index tracks the number of contracts signed on homes, which increased in May by just 0.1% from the previous month. Pending sales are up 6.7% from a year ago.
In the past those contracts would give a pretty good indication of what existing home sales would look like when the NAR reports its May numbers a few weeks later. These days the report’s reliability as an indicator is shakier. More pending sales appear to be falling through, as financing becomes harder to reach or as buyers and sellers renege on pricing.
In April, for example, contracts signed on homes rose 6.7% from the previous month, but existing home sales in May—when a lot of those contracts should have closed and been reported—increased by just 2.4%. Indeed, for nearly a year, the pending home-sales index appears to be over-predicting closed sales relative to historical levels, notes independent housing economist Thomas Lawler.
Not once in the two decades since California's Proposition 98 school-funding formula became law have lawmakers bucked education groups to suspend it – so Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's push to do so has rocked the Capitol.
Jun 12, 2009 Listed $ 58,000 -- MRMLS #I09064513 Sep 16, 2008 Sold $142,200 -36.6%/yr Public Records Jul 27, 2006 Sold $377,500 51.6%/yr Public Records Sep 18, 2003 Sold $115,000 17.7%/yr Public Records Mar 17, 2000 Sold $65,000 -24.2%/yr Public Records Oct 23, 1998 Sold $95,860 3.0%/yr Public Records Aug 28, 1996 Sold $90,000 >1,000%/yr Public Records May 15, 1996 Sold $45,000 >1,000%/yr Public Records May 08, 1996 Sold $39,000 -70.4%/yr Public Records Oct 10, 1995 Sold $78,773 -- Public Records
It's time again for fabulous Fridays at the Bowl. Tonight we get fireworks too!
Los Angeles Philharmonic Bill Conti, conductor Monica Mancini, vocalist Dave Grusin, piano Brian Stokes Mitchell, vocalist
From "Moon River" to "Days of Wine and Roses," Charade to Victor/Victoria, and The Pink Panther to Peter Gunn... join the LA Phil and a stellar lineup of special guests on a journey celebrating the unforgettable legacy of music for film, television and orchestra by the four-time Oscar-and 20-time Grammy-winner, legendary Hollywood Bowl Hall of Famer Henry Mancini!
A new study from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) examines the costs of education, health care and incarceration of illegal aliens, and concludes that the costs to Californians is $10.5 billion per year.
Source: about.com Kicker? Publication date 1994. Gee, sucking away $10-$20b per year every year for a generation was bound to catch up with the State. Add to that the similar rate of wealth extraction over the same period to Federal balance of payments and it should be no surprise the State is insolvent.
WSJ report via CNBC summary: Cerberus Capital Management is still declining to let investors out of its main hedge fund, according to the Wall Street Journal.
In a letter to clients reviewed by the Journal, Cerberus chairman Stephen Feinberg said the firm is revamping investor terms on its main hedge fund.
The letter cites weak market conditions that are still preventing Cerberus from giving clients their money back. Cerberus also says significant macro risks may affect future results. The letter also notes that the firm has had difficulty selling existing positions.
Cerberus says it has created a special vehicle to let some investors cash out over time.
In December of last year, Cerberus suspended withdrawal requests, joining a group of hedge funds that had halted redemptions. Feinberg also said in the letter that Cerberus plans on avoiding headline-grabbing deals like its ill-fated investments in automaker Chrysler and lender GMAC. ---- "...the firm is revamping investor terms..." Got that? Changing the terms unilaterally. S'okay we are all now so used to this it barely merits mentioning. The real problem is these people are in the markets with two sets of books. THey admit their assets aren't worth what they'd fetch in the markets but won't adjust their books accordingly. Obviously this isn't just Cerberus which means pretty much everyone in the markets is playing with fantasy trades.
Plenty of American states have budget crises; but California’s illustrate two more structural worries about the state. Back in its golden age in the 1950s and 1960s, it offered middle-class people, not just techy high-fliers, a shot at the American dream—complete with superb schools and universities, and an enviable physical infrastructure. These days California’s unemployment rate is running at 11.5%, two points ahead of the national average. In such Californian cities as Fresno, Merced and El Centro, jobless rates are higher than in Detroit. Its roads and schools are crumbling. Every year, over 100,000 more Americans leave the state than enter it.
But not to worry, we still have beach babe eyecandy:
Notice how there is a condemnation of St. Vincent dePaul and Salvation Army and other various socialist slants in the text. Well at least in 1933 those concepts were considered socialist. I think they changed the name to "Hope Now."
US lurching towards 'debt explosion' with long-term interest rates on course to double The US economy is lurching towards crisis with long-term interest rates on course to double, crippling the country’s ability to pay its debts and potentially plunging it into another recession, according to a study by the US’s own central bank. UK Telegraph article here.
In a 2003 paper, Thomas Laubach, the US Federal Reserve’s senior economist, calculated the impact on long-term interest rates of rising fiscal deficits and soaring national debt. Applying his assumptions to the recent spike in the US fiscal deficit and national debt, long-term interests rates will double from their current 3.5%.
Okay, enough slumming. Here's the other end of the market. Craigslist is where you'd sell your $1.7m home right? What could go wrong? Read the description:
We are in Lake Sherwood and have this amazing home for sale. We are building in Malibu, and will be moving soon. We know its hard to find financing these days so we are offering a A.I T D. It is a wrap around financing, and will allow you to take title of our home, and you can refinance with in 5 years. We will leave the 1st, and 2nd Trust Deed in our name, and you make all the payments. You are on title, so you own the property!!
To get into a home like this you need full employment documentation, Bank verif's for down payment, and at the Minimum, 30% down.
Here is what we are asking!!!
Example: We owe $1,400,000 Home appraised in december 2007 $1,790,000 (but we will get an updated appraisal. Comps are at 1,600,000 right now)
You Assume the 1st TD at 1,200,000 (payment $5,900) You Assume the 2nd TD at $200,000 (payment $700) You pay the Balance to us $175,000. (we would accept a $100,000 payment now, and $50,000 in 4 months)
That's less then 10% down, and no qualifying!!!!!
For more details and to set up an appt to see it, just call.
Via Redfin: 15643 La Verida Dr Victorville, CA 92395 Price: $48,000 BEDS: 3 BATHS: 2 SQ. FT.: 1,399 /SQ. FT.: $34 LOT SIZE: 9,240 Sq. Ft. MLS#: C09070393
Single story ranch style home near the 15 frwy for commuters. Features double door entry, living room/dining combo with step down and fireplace, den, country kitchen, laundry in the garage, roof evap cooler, covered patio, composition roof and wood fencing.
Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.