Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Desert Living Large
10131 JENNY St, Hesperia, CA 92344
I said living large. I mean that two ways.
BEDS: 6
BATHS: 4
SQ. FT.: 4,246
$/SQ. FT.: $90
LOT SIZE: 1.86 Acres
Too bad the people who bought it for $282k in January want $382k now.
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 18, 2010 Listed $382,500 -- MRMLS #C10029262
Jan 07, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $284,025 -15.5%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2005 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 22.6%/yr Public Records
Good luck with that flippers.
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33 comments:
Hey, you have to credit them with creative thinking. They moved first in the year, and they are taking the FIRST mover advantage. Can they still take the new homebuyer credit, and then extend the same credit to their customers? That would help grease the old flipper wheels
Rob, I am on the east coast. What would a reasonable person ask? Thanks.
A reasonable person would ask why anyone would want to live in Hesperia.
Back in the old days, people on the East Coast wanted to get to the Golden State.
Those with lots of money took the clipper around the Horn and settled in San Fransisco.
Those with not so much traveled steerage around the Horn & landed in Los Angeles.
Those with no money walked. And got as far as Hesperia.
Nice house, sq footage, bedrooms, recent construction, neighborhood of similar houses, decent access to employment and shopping. $250-280k.
The $650k was just insane.
So how much will that thing be worth when the water stops flowing there? I figure that during a real drought, Hisperians are at the back of the line.
Water stop flowing? Where is the water flowing now?
Hesperia is the desert of a desert. Only tweakers, pensioners, and criminally insane live there.
Seems like a great place for a retired Batman to take up residence.
Chuck
If you guys are fussing about water, there's 3 inches of it in my basement you can have. First come, first serve.
> Water stop flowing? Where is the water flowing now?
When they turn on the faucets in Hesperia, the water flows. It is flowing underground.
Sorry if this was too much of a preschool explanation.
Water is now cascading off the crests of the San Bernadino Mountains, a few miles away from Hesperia. Doubtless that they have ever had so much water in abundance.
I just drove through Hesperia yesterday, and I don't think the property itself has any value beyond maybe $10K. There is a ton of empty desert out there. And I sure didn't see much that looked like employment nearby. Maybe down the hill in San Berdoo, but not up there. All I saw was furniture stores, gas stations, auto dealerships, and fast food. I suppose one could get a retail job at the outlet mall just up the road, but none of those jobs would cover the expenses on a $250K house.
So whatever the right price is would have to be based on the structure and any amenities, such as readily available Joshua trees and poundable sand.
If a retiree wanted to live in the desert, why not do it in Nevada where the state doesn't tax your income? Plenty of inexpensive houses are available on the desert outskirts of Las Vegas. I visited a friend out there whose house is sitting in a checkerboard of empty lots - it looks like the builders woke up and stopped on a dime.
I think that retirees actually like California because of Prop 13. The tax increases are very predictable with a fixed income. Other states, especially with skyrocketing real estate values, are known for horror stories where people are forced out of now expensive homes, because they can't afford the taxes. Certainly the weather is nice, and the desert is affordable. People can travel during the hot months.
Lost Cause,
I don't see "skyrocketing real estate values" ever again being a problem for current retirees.
TJ,
Not skyrocketing in real terms, but quite possibly skyrocketing in nominal terms. It was the massive inflation (only incidentally due to closing the gold window) in the late 60s and 70s that led to prop 13. Property taxes are based on nominal prices, as you know.
s&m_landlord,
Indeed. The combination of Prop 13 and Dirty Fed 5% mortgages was what spurred me to buy overpriced California real estate.
If inflation is coming, having a 30% fixed at 5% and property taxes capped at 2% annual is perfect.
And Trillion-Dolla Obama seems determined to create serious inflation.
Not skyrocketing in real terms, but quite possibly skyrocketing in nominal terms.
Still not going to happen, at least not on your typical crackerbox SFH. High and/or hyperinflation would *kill* them, because it would kill the finances of the people that inhabit them.
This story made me think of Casey.
Shoplifting Couple in San Diego Headed to Prison
I'm not sure you would see so many million dollar houses in places like Iowa that have a huge property tax burden. Irony of ironies, Michigan has one of the highest property tax rates in the country, and some of the cheapest property. I think that low property taxes contributed to the abundance of million dollar mansions in California. My wife blames it on all of the movie stars, though.
Hey RD ... how 'bout a post analyzing the possible effects of the health care boondoggle in Cali. I've read that Medicaid expansion may require increase in state taxes and could push the state further towards insolvency.
Lost cause,
Property taxes contributed, but not nearly as much as jumbo interest rates and crappy lending standards.
Property taxes were exactly the same in the 90's when those million dollar homes were going for $400,000.
As for the movie stars and other wealthy folks...in Los Angeles there are probably 10 million people and only a few places you would want to live. Naturally there is a premium paid to live there.
What does that shoplifting couple have to do with Casey?
Monica said...
"What does that shoplifting couple have to do with Casey?"
They are an ugly couple trying to run an internet business, but they keep getting hung up by prejudiced attitudes about "grey areas".
I don't understand what you mean by getting hung up by prejudiced attitudes about "grey areas". Who has prejudiced attitudes? They or other people? And where are the "grey areas"? The main problem is not some grey area but the fact that the goods were stolen. If the business was otherwise perfectly legal, paying taxes, offering great customer service and treating their employees really well, it would still have been illegal just because it was selling stolen goods.
What does that shoplifting couple have to do with Casey?
They're both thieves.
That should sum it up tersely enough that even a dullard like you can understand.
Monica -- Both committed "minor" criminal acts on a grand scale, and then got huge publicity as a result.
CR was waiting for the 10 year to move, check out the ten year today?
Dawg, why do you post there so much?
This one goes out to Lou:
The Government Pay Boom
America's most privileged class are public union workers.
It turns out there really is growing inequality in America. It's the 45% premium in pay and benefits that government workers receive over the poor saps who create wealth in the private economy.
And the gap is growing. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from 1998 to 2008 public employee compensation grew by 28.6%, compared with 19.3% for private workers. In the recession year of 2009, with almost no inflation and record budget deficits, more than half the states awarded pay raises to their employees. Even as deficits in state capitals widen and are forcing cuts in services, few politicians are willing to eliminate these pay inequities that enrich the few who wield political power.
Let's walk through the math. In 2008 almost half of all state and local government expenditures, or an estimated $1.1 trillion, went toward the pay and benefits of public workers. According to the BLS, in 2009 the average state or local public employee received $39.66 in total compensation per hour versus $27.42 for private workers. This means that for every $1 in pay and benefits a private employee earned, a state or local government worker received $1.45.
Octomom is ahead of Octofraud, at least she can pocket $5000 by hosting a poster in the front yard. Note the 3 garbage & 3 recycle wheelybins.
Believe it or not, I actually envy Octomom for having fulfilled her biological destiny. I would never have considered out-of-wedlock motherhood or having children I can't afford. I worked and went to university, and where did that get me? I'm just a fat, childless loser (employed, it is true) about to turn 40 when I could have been a mother. I even had an abortion, silly me, when I should have begged and fought in the name of that poor soul, as it is rare for a baby to actually die of starvation in this society, not if the mom is asking for help, and Octomom managed to get 8 children, not one. It really breaks my heart when I see the courage of that "Octomom" woman and regret not having had at least just once.
To the board: what say ye on the new CA homebuyer tax credit? It's up to 10K, and this will fix everything undoubtedly.
Is it any wonder CA is bankrupt with leadership like this?
The state is broke and they hand out a dubious niche tax break.
Hey Walrus.
Time to pack it in and close up shop.
This blog is dead.
Hit the Play button at the link:
Unemployment in California
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