Monday, September 20, 2010

The Recession is Dead, Long Live the Recession



This is what the NBER says they used to determine the recession ended in June 2009:
Macroeconomic Advisers’ monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)

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IMO they saw an inventory replenishment and called it a recovery. Regardless, the graph Rockefeller Institute pdf] at the top tells the real story. it is all about the health of the government sector not the whole economy.

12 comments:

Property Flopper said...

But they announced the recession is over, that fixes everything. Just bury your head in the sand and repeat "it's all going to be better, it's all going to be better". Alternatively, just cover your ears and go "la-la-la" when ever someone tells you things will get worse.

Unemployment is high and nobody thinks it's dropping any time soon. The housing market is still being propped up, that can only be maintained for so long.

Brian said...

Rob, you lost about 95% of your readers by, ya know, not posting for the better part of the last 6 months.

Get back to the "all Casey, all the time" format or no one will visit.

Monica said...

I will. In fact, to be honest, I'm really here mostly for the occasional Casey comment.

NHSteph said...

hai! i can haz doooooomz now plz?

(Casey posts OK too)

kthxbai!

Son of Brock Landers said...

Anyone squatting in a GMAC financed home?

tj and the bear said...

That's okay, more skin in the pics and more snark in the posts and everyone will run right back! :-)

Dave said...

RSS Readers never forget...

Rob Dawg said...

and bloggers never sleep. ;)

Rob Dawg said...

Rob, you lost about 95% of your readers by, ya know, not posting for the better part of the last 6 months.

Get back to the "all Casey, all the time" format or no one will visit.


Feature, not bug Brian. This is a hobby not a job. When it became a job it was time for a hiatus is all.

1.44MB said...

For anyone wanting casey updates just google "james marks casey" or trot over to campidiot. That's all the casey anyone could ever want. Check out Anna Serins BK comedy filing - approx 500k in unpaid bills yet the 'charitable contributions' box gets $900 per month written in it. What the flagnogs?
Probably code what they give turdflake as an allowance each month.
4932 Dewey....... Nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

w said...

Hey Rob,

What's up with the new 450 acre site in Oxnard to build more business park and residential? Seems a little unnecessary.

Pleather Murse said...

Casey's fifteen minutes are over. When he does something noteworthy aka hilariously stoopid again we can talk about it. In the meantime we've had some other little issues pop up, nothing major, just (for instance) the near collapse of the banking system and the bursting of a credit bubble leading to a massive recession and likely multi-year deflation that might be worth a post or two. Priorities, people!

Now I'm just stuck with this archaic pseudonym that is already becoming obscure even to me. Even the words "Massive Focused Semi-Vegan Pleather Koi" seem to have lost all meaning ... if they ever had one?