Monday, November 01, 2010

Election Predictions


Prop 19: "Doobie Doobie Due." YES. How can anyone look at the prohibition era and not draw the correct lesson?
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 20: "Revenge of the Gerrymandered." YES. The 2008 Prop omitted Congressional districts – this simply adds them.
Prediction win 59/41.
Prop 21: "Fees For Trees." NO. State Parks are everyone's responsibility. An $18 per car tax increase whether we use the parks or not is classic blame shifting for a legislature that connat accept responsibility for their mess. Stealing money from highway travelers used to be called "highway robbery." Now it's called "Proposition 21."
Prediction win 53/47.
Prop 22: "Here let me hold and count that for you." YES. Sacramento has gone far beyond egg management fees. They are stealing dedicated fund flows outright. Local governments are hardly paragons of virtue, but local tax revenues should remain local.
Prediction win 62/38.
Prop 23: "Business Isn't Completely Dead. YES. In 2006, Sacramento's rocket-scientists enacted AB 32, imposing draconian restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions (yes, that's the stuff you exhale). Prop 23 merely holds the Environmental Left to its promise: it suspends AB 32 until unemployment stabilizes at or below its pre-AB 32 level.
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 24: "Kill a Business, Save a Union." NO. $1.7b in hard negotiated business tax policies are about to be end run sponsored by the people who originally didn't negotiate in good faith.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 25: "Single Party Budgets." NO. This changes the 2/3 vote requirement for the state budget to a simple majority. If the 2/3 vote requirement for the budget does not restrain spending this can only make things worse.
Prediction lose 48/52.
Prop 26: "Quacks Like a Duck." YES. Under the infamous Sinclair Paint decision, virtually any tax may be increased by majority vote as long as it is called a "fee," gutting the 2/3 vote requirement in the state constitution to raise taxes. Prop. 26 rescinds Sinclair Paint, restores the Constitution, and calls a tax a tax.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 27: "Petulant Politicians Preying." NO. Want to go back to the days when politicians drew their own district lines, literally choosing their own voters? This will starts us there.
Prediction lose 60/40.

30 comments:

H Simpson said...

Oh wise one, what of Meg and Carly?

W.C. Varones said...

Hate to break this to you Rob, but you might be a teabagger.

Your picks are suspiciously similar.

W.C. Varones said...

If you've come to terms with your teabagging tendencies, I hope you'll join us for an election night party.

Peripheral Visionary said...

If Boxer survives the night, she will have Prop 19 to thank for it; I think it is the only thing driving the youth vote to the polls tonight. Otherwise, I think her lead would have evaporated in the face of Democrat apathy. Still think Prop 19 is going down, though.

Akubi said...

I am so pissed off about 19 going down.

Akubi said...

But I love the Giants!
Fuckyeah!

Akubi said...

In regards to 19,
Thank you Mexican cartels!

Akubi said...

Fiorina and her bs anti-abortion shit pisses me off too.
Please stop farting out retarded babies.
Thx.

Akubi said...

As usual, I pretty much disagree with you on everything else.

Lou Minatti said...

With Jerry Brown as governor and a Republican sweep of Congress, I'm guessing that it will be a lot more difficult to bail out California.

Please stop farting out retarded babies.

Indeed, they grow up to be Democrats. :-)

Lou Minatti said...

Prop 19: "Doobie Doobie Due."

I am disappointed that it failed. I was hoping California would lead the way in ending stupid draconian laws against a plant.

Rob Dawg said...

You mean Boxer right?

w said...

Can't we just split this state already? Somewhere around Greenfield just draw a line.

Peripheral Visionary said...

I too was disappointed at Proposition 19 going down. I was rather looking forward to the prospect of those of us who live in the rest of the U.S. being able to export all our potheads to California, where they could freeload on relatives and government programs there rather than in our own neighborhoods. *Sigh*--oh well, maybe Washington state or Oregon will consider legalization?

And to repeat a point I made earlier: California has a little over a month to get the U.S. Congress to bail it out, otherwise it will have to balance its budget on its own. With a governor and a legislature completely beholden to the public sector unions, that could turn out to be interesting.

Property Flopper said...

W - All for splitting the state, but we (in the North) get Monterey and Big Sur. We can split it some where South of that.

But what about San Diego? It's not quite like the rest of SoCal.

JP said...

Wow! Excellent job, Rob, you called 6 out of 9 correctly, and your percentages on the ones you picked correctly were amazingly close (dead on on the pot prop, hmmm).

Forget about Washington passing legalized pot, we had not one but TWO initiatives to get the state out of the liquor business and BOTH failed! So no cheap booze at Costco, darnit!

H Simpson said...

Oh no!

Even the MMM is puttng a fork into rail systems.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/10/29/why-high-speed-trains-don-t-make-sense.html?obref=obinsite

Lost Cause said...

Happy holidays, Rob.

Lost Cause said...

Here is another Casey -- his comments and defensiveness are identical to that of Snowflake, except this one just got out of prison, a two-time loser, after a parole violation:

http://www.ocregister.com/news/-279710--.html

Property Flopper said...

Is it time for the quarterly post yet?

House prices falling... no?

Bullet train through the middle of nowhere... nothing?

Pleather Murse said...

I'm not going to dump all over that Cole Bartiromo kid -- the young stock swindler from SD -- when zillionaire bankers are living lavish lifestyles while ordinary shlubs are pulling the wreckage of their lives together in this depression. He just wasn't smart enough to get away with his loot and get out of the country before he got caught.


Wall Street bankers, publicly modest, eye fancy toys

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street executives may face smaller bonuses and a public that still eyes them with suspicion, but that isn't stopping them from rediscovering their love of luxury cars, oceanfront homes and private jets.

A soaring stock market, a surge in merger deals and an uptick in hiring on Wall Street are allowing bankers to gradually return to the lavish lifestyles they enjoyed until the 2008 financial crisis came crashing down on their party. Wall Street paid out $20.3 billion in bonuses for 2009, and the numbers for 2010 are expected to be up modestly, according to various estimates, including one from New York's comptroller.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-bankers-publicly-rb-3409482030.html?x=0

Pleather Murse said...

Now is the time to sell, real estate consultant says

People who have been delaying putting their homes on the market should do it soon because prices may go down 5% to 8% as banks unload a glut of repossessed properties.

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-umberger-20110102,0,6685941.story

Pleather Murse said...

Intel CEO: U.S. faces looming tech decline

Take factories. "I can tell you definitively that it costs $1 billion more per factory for me to build, equip, and operate a semiconductor manufacturing facility in the United States," Otellini said.

The rub: Ninety percent of that additional cost of a $4 billion factory is not labor but the cost to comply with taxes and regulations that other nations don't impose. Cypress Semiconductor CEO T.J. Rodgers elaborated on this in an interview with CNET, saying the problem is not higher U.S. wages but antibusiness laws: "The killer factor in California for a manufacturer to create, say, a thousand blue-collar jobs is a hostile government that doesn't want you there and demonstrates it in thousands of ways."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-20014563-38.html

Pleather Murse said...

Brown seeks 5-year extension of California taxes

SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Gov. Jerry Brown is proposing to slash funding for most areas of state government and maintain a series of tax increases for five years to close California's huge budget deficit.

The Democratic governor on Monday released his first budget proposal since winning election last fall.

He is calling for $12.5 billion in spending cuts, including reductions in welfare, social services, health care for the poor and higher education.

Brown also wants the Legislature to call a special election in June to give voters an opportunity to continue hikes in the income, sales and vehicle taxes for five years.

The governor's office says the only area of state spending he would protect is K-12 education.

Brown said his recommendations will close an 18-month budget gap estimated at $25.4 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110110/ap_on_re_us/us_california_budget

Property Flopper said...

No comment on the new budget? No comment on the likelyhood of people voting to extend the taxes?

No cheesecake?

Pleather Murse said...

Try this one.

http://www.cheesecake.com/

Lou Minatti said...

Casey make babby with new wife.

Tyrone said...

Not sure if you're checking comments, anymore, but the final chapter for Crisp & Cole is approaching...
Crisp & Cole: Part 5

It has been long in coming, but they will receive what they deserve. Now it's time for some bankers to swing.

Marshall_Will said...

"Fees for Trees" LOL!

Or Trees for Fees? Works both ways. Coming to a Washington's Mexico near YOU!

Hey Rob! Lou.., buubie, good to see you too! I remember W.C as well. Still knocking 'em dead I see.

Monica said...

Hey, guys, Casey's house was sold today. See James Marks' blog. I'm not joking.