Monday, November 01, 2010

Election Predictions

Prop 19: "Doobie Doobie Due." YES. How can anyone look at the prohibition era and not draw the correct lesson?
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 20: "Revenge of the Gerrymandered." YES. The 2008 Prop omitted Congressional districts – this simply adds them.
Prediction win 59/41.
Prop 21: "Fees For Trees." NO. State Parks are everyone's responsibility. An $18 per car tax increase whether we use the parks or not is classic blame shifting for a legislature that connat accept responsibility for their mess. Stealing money from highway travelers used to be called "highway robbery." Now it's called "Proposition 21."
Prediction win 53/47.
Prop 22: "Here let me hold and count that for you." YES. Sacramento has gone far beyond egg management fees. They are stealing dedicated fund flows outright. Local governments are hardly paragons of virtue, but local tax revenues should remain local.
Prediction win 62/38.
Prop 23: "Business Isn't Completely Dead. YES. In 2006, Sacramento's rocket-scientists enacted AB 32, imposing draconian restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions (yes, that's the stuff you exhale). Prop 23 merely holds the Environmental Left to its promise: it suspends AB 32 until unemployment stabilizes at or below its pre-AB 32 level.
Prediction lose 46/54.
Prop 24: "Kill a Business, Save a Union." NO. $1.7b in hard negotiated business tax policies are about to be end run sponsored by the people who originally didn't negotiate in good faith.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 25: "Single Party Budgets." NO. This changes the 2/3 vote requirement for the state budget to a simple majority. If the 2/3 vote requirement for the budget does not restrain spending this can only make things worse.
Prediction lose 48/52.
Prop 26: "Quacks Like a Duck." YES. Under the infamous Sinclair Paint decision, virtually any tax may be increased by majority vote as long as it is called a "fee," gutting the 2/3 vote requirement in the state constitution to raise taxes. Prop. 26 rescinds Sinclair Paint, restores the Constitution, and calls a tax a tax.
Prediction win 51/49.
Prop 27: "Petulant Politicians Preying." NO. Want to go back to the days when politicians drew their own district lines, literally choosing their own voters? This will starts us there.
Prediction lose 60/40.