First quarter 2013 GDP came in at 2.5%. Decent sounding headline number until... Until you look at where it came from. Fully 1% was merely rebuilding inventory from Q4 '12 and the Sandy effects. Yup, a weather event last November accounted for 40% of GDP improvement. Then the rest; consumer spending despite a steep downdraft in disposable income. And recall; that drop in disposable income does not include the 2% FICA restoration.
By now hopefully you've visited Comerica and read their take. One notable comment:
...there is also the clear drag from fiscal tightening. The parts
in the first quarter GDP report are indicative of an economy that remains hobbled and is not well poised to
accelerate into mid‐year. In the current second quarter growth in consumer spending will be cooler. We will
likely see another, but smaller, gain from inventories. Government spending will continue to contract.
There's the trap. Government spending$2 billion more per day than they collect instead of the previous $3 billion more per day is a "bad" thing for GDP measures.