Thursday, August 24, 2017

Housing hits the Wall

Comerica Economic Alert excerpt:
Today we see that existing
home sales also fell in July. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes fell by
1.3 percent in July, to a 5,440,000 unit annual rate. This is clearly below the post-recession peak rate of
5,700,000 set last March. So, despite lower mortgage rates, a strong labor market and a surging stock
market in July, home sales generally limped through mid-summer. Sales in the Northeast fell by 14.5 percent
in July. The Midwest slipped by 5.3 percent. The South gained 2.2 percent and the West was up by 5.0
percent. The inventory of unsold existing homes on the market remained at a tight 4.2 months’ worth. The
median sales price of an existing home was up by 6.2 percent in July over the previous 12 months.
----- 

Hard to tell if months supply is permanently altered by information availability. 

125 comments:

Mike said...

so nobody is selling and nobody is buying,,,

Rob Dawg said...

Just don't spook the boomer herd. They all think their excess housing is going to sell on their terms.

Mike said...

seems like most boomers are planning to "age in place"..so it will probably be their heirs that are getting set-up for disappointment..

Lawyerliz said...

Well I'm not going anywhere. My heirs.and assigns will get money and some nice stuff if we haven't spent it all. They have nice jobs due to nice educations. And the son gets some money due to being a slightly disabled vet.
If they get some nice chunks, it will just be icing on the cake. Real estate goes up and down, like everything else.

Mike said...

In California..what happens to property taxes when someone sells a house they've lived in for a long time?? I know prop tax increases are greatly restrained while the original owner is in it..but do they skyrocket after a property is sold (due to revaluation of the property)??

Cinco-X said...

My kids are gonna be so disappointed

Mike said...

Was reading an article recently that Goodwill stores are getting overwhelmed by donations of household goods and other assorted junk from Boomers who are downsizing (guess that flies in the face of my "aging in place" statement).

Who would have guessed millennials don't want mom's 50 piece china set?? ;<)

Jim the Realtor said...

In California..what happens to property taxes when someone sells a house they've lived in for a long time?? I know prop tax increases are greatly restrained while the original owner is in it..but do they skyrocket after a property is sold (due to revaluation of the property)??

Kids or grandkids can inherit the previous ultra-low property taxes, but if the house is sold to a third-party, then they get their taxes figured at 1% of the sales price.

Jim the Realtor said...

Let's also note that sales were up 5.0% in the west...you all are moving here!

Lawyerliz said...

Florida has homestead which limits raises to 3% a year. When sold they will reassess. But homestead is portable. I was about to learn about when the Great Recession happen. Everything is, I'm under assessed.
Happy Hurricane day. 25 years since Andrew. Harvey spinning up.

Lawyerliz said...

Not me!

UMDan said...

"Who would have guessed millennials don't want mom's 50 piece china set?? ;<)"

Yep, our kids don't want any of our stuff, and no one (and I mean no one) wants that "priceless" collection of depression glass, milk glass or silver plate. Go to any "re-sell" or consignment store and see all the crap us boomers are trying to unload. And just think how much stuff is piled up in storage locker places that seem to be everywhere. With 5 kids we accumulated so much stuff we are probably just going to donate what we don't need when we finally downsize.

We are planning on list our home in October, but in our neighborhood there are already 6 homes out of 43 that are for sale, mainly due to the oppressive property taxes here in Lake County, IL. I have a feeling we may not be moving any time soon.

Mike said...

then they get their taxes figured at 1% of the sales price.

thanks Jim. Is the 1% mandated by the state..or can that vary from county to county?? I'm always fascinated by how much prop tax rates can vary state by state. e.g. 2.5-3.0% is very common throughout much of the midwest..but the western states seem to be able to keep there's in the 1-1.5% range (which is maybe why everyone is moving here!!)

Mike said...

"theirs"

Rob Dawg said...

Hey there JtR. Good to hear from you. Thanks for answering the questions from our several Not-California people here.

CA Prop 13 essentially set property taxes at 1% of purchase price with a maximum 2% per year appreciation. Don't discount that last. The original basis is 1975 as passed in 1978. 2% compounded from 1975 to 2017 is quite a multiplier. From 1% to 2.3% now. Add the new taxes and new ummm "fees." Mosquito abatement being one in my neighborhood. Most CA residential sees 1.1% to 1.3% and a few outliers much more. Can you say special assessment district for street lights?

Rob Dawg said...

> Yep, our kids don't want any of our stuff, and no one (and I mean no one) wants that "priceless" collection of depression glass, milk glass or silver plate.

Preach Brother UDMan.

In one of those weird coincidences I just put in a lowball offer on our china pattern for sale on Craigslist. Not a very common style and as you note a depressed sector. 71pcs I offered $160 (they want $300). For our wedding at the time it was a great deal for two place settings (5 pcs/ea or 10 pcs total). And those were 1980s dollars.

Rob Dawg said...

Is Lake County's motto "Not Kenosha but close enough." ?

Sorry.

Seriously. Escaping crushing "captive" taxes is a smart move.

Lawyerliz said...

After Andrew I bought some beautiful expensive dining room furniture, and I have some famiy antiques and my kids actually want some of that. Also the silver is solid silver, so you can melt it down. So I guess I should fell honored. My daughter actually wanted a painting I did in college and has taken it.

Lawyerliz said...

Our taxes are not that much. In fact the hub thinks we are under taxed no kidding. Sometimes he is a very strange man.

Rob Dawg said...

Liz makes a great comment. After the big one hits California there will likely be huge piles of undesired object d'crap.

Lawyerliz said...

Hey J, don't go away.

Lawyerliz said...

Buy only stuff you love. Pay as much for things as you can afford and buy the best.

Lawyerliz said...

Uh-oh.

Lawyerliz said...

The dishes and silver were once a status symbol. Now electronic related stuff, and cars of course are the status symbols.

Lawyerliz said...

Was watching a show on Easter Island. Bad things like droughts and tsunamis killed the people, so they knocked down all their god-statues except one and started a new religion. The ones you see have been reassembled. Some whites want to keep he old religion,many want to do the knocking down. I personally don't like iconoclasm. But I see where black people will ever like looking at the image of Lee.

Rubygoat said...

Texas has no income tax, but I pay about 3% of my assessed home value in taxes. By law they can increase the assessment by 10% each year on your primary residence. I've lived there for 10 years and every year it's assessed the full 10% higher. Funnily, I don't think I am getting 10% more service every year.

UMDan said...

"Is Lake County's motto "Not Kenosha but close enough." ?"

Sort of, more like "at least we are not Racine".

Seriously, we are looking at Kenosha, Racine (near the lake), and maybe Burlington. My job (when I go into the office), is relocating from Northbrook to Lake Forest, so being in WI and "commuting" won't be that big of an issue, especially when I will probably only go in twice a week max. Fortunately our company is one that still embraces working remote (my boss is in Michigan, and other members of our team are spread pout across the country), so location is not as critical as it used to be. And with the kids gone we don't need to be that concerned with schools.

Lawyerliz said...

10% a year is a lot. We Pay No more than 3%. Some paid way less than that, because of the huge drop in values due the Great Recession. House you just purchased is suppose to be assessed at full value, which is neeither the purchase price nor the assessed value, which is part of a weird formula, which frankly, I don't understand. Usually real estate is under assessed. If your house goes down in price, that is a really bad sign.

I am scared to check Zillow.

Rob Dawg said...

Zillguess has the Dawghaus down ~7% yoy.

Lawyerliz said...

Mine is down a tad more than 7%
Don't intend to sell until I am 3/4 dead.
How are your baby bird, and Mrs Dawg?

Lawyerliz said...

Houston is supposed to get over 15 inches.

Rubygoat said...

Aye, expect MASSIVE flooding. I'm supposed to drive across the state tonight in the 6-10 inch rain band and I am dreading the roads

Rob Dawg said...

Good luck. Are you taking the Nissan Leaf or Toyota Prius?

Lawyerliz said...

Do you HAVE TO go? Might be a time to beg off. On the other hand, Might be flooding where you are now. And, I presume you have to get back again. Go north if you can.

Lawyerliz said...

And extremely good luck.

Rob Dawg said...

My middle kid just sent the cutest picture. Baby Bird feel asleep working on an art project. Clutching a box of Girl Scout cookies and laying across a her set of gel pens.

Rob Dawg said...

Yeah. I do not see the value of being on the roads on the region for anything less than an emergency. Hie thee on to Austin and enjoy the culture.

Mike said...

it will be interesting to see what happens with property values in Racine/Kenosha with Foxconn moving in..

best of luck to everyone in the great state of texas..

Lawyerliz said...

Totally agree. If somebody died, they will still be dead when the hurricane dissapates. If somebody is dying they wouldn't want you to join them so quickly. If you are picking up a million dollars you won't enjoy it so much if you are severely wounded, and not at all if you are dead. Danger is real goatsie. Post when to get there, if you don't take my advice.

Lawyerliz said...

Agreed

Lawyerliz said...

Launch tonite. A decomissioned icbm to launch a satelite. And the company launching bought a bunch of these. We are also getting lots of sonic boom to study them and minimize the noise.

Rob Dawg said...

I'm going to write a sci fi story about an alien invasion thwarted by the enemy decelerating using their FTL gravity drives right where all the space junk circles. Follow up stories will involve amateur private adventurers launching to salvage the remains before deorbiting.

Lawyerliz said...

That could be excellent. Olde style Sci FI with (hardly)any fantasy.

Mike said...

work the Swedish bikini team into your plot line and I'm sold..

Rob Dawg said...

Getting up to the derilict ships in surplus boosters and cobbled capsules meant every ounce was precious. Space was tight. The adventurers tighter. As a prime mix of athleticism and volume along with a tolerance for cold the Swedish bikini team members quickly became valued members of any expedition. Packed in capsules wearing not more than skin suits was never mentioned as a qualifying reason.

Mike said...

yup...you've got yourself a best seller there... and HBO is on the phone looking to lock up video rights for the series..

Lawyerliz said...

Thomas Stone was a signer of the declaration of independence

Lawyerliz said...

Hahahahaha

Lawyerliz said...

Bikini wearer, nah.

Mike said...

so i guess we should be protesting everyone named Thomas Stone??

Mike said...

back to the HBO series...all I ask for my contribution to the plot line is one cameo role..where I look up to the sky and say..

"I guess we just need to depend on the Swedish Bikini Team to save the earth"

UMDan said...

"it will be interesting to see what happens with property values in Racine/Kenosha with Foxconn moving in.."

I'll believe it when I see a groundbreaking ceremony. Its a long way off from announcement to actually hiring, so I would not expect any spike in real estate until it looks like it is actually going to go through.

Zillow says my house is now only worth $14K less than what I paid for it in November, 2005. WINNING!

Mike said...

Bikini wearer, nah.

just for you Liz..we'll cast Mark Harmon as the grizzled old fighter pilot... brought back to repel the enemy invaders

Rob Dawg said...

People don't even believe me when I tell them what I paid so I've stopped trying.

Rob Dawg said...

I see Harvey has nudged up barely into Cat 3. It would piss off the alarmists if it stumbles.

Mike said...

re: Racine/Kenosha..beautiful stretch of Lake Michigan along there...has a ton of potential. Needs an economic spark though..hope Foxconn provides it for them.

Lawyerliz said...

Yay. Yum
Thx.

Lawyerliz said...

Er, no.
Mine is worth twice what we paid for it.

Rob Dawg said...

Inga kept trying. It was no good. "Mike, I am being stuck again. These aliens just were not being body built like us." " No problem. I've got the lube and bikini cutters right here." "Oh Mike! You being again a lifesaver." She wasn't about to mention that with a bit more effort she would probably squeeze through without his helping hands.

Mike said...

re: harvey..I don't think the concern is so much the intensity..as the fact that it is so slow moving...four day rain event for many areas

Rob Dawg said...

Meanwhile Commander Greyhair reflected on what was quickly turning into his best duty station ever since his acting days in the movie "Summer School."

Mike said...

nah..I'm just one of the townsfolk looking up at the sky saying..

"thank god for the Swedish Bikini team"

Mike said...

movie "Summer School."

I'm not much of a movie guy..weird that I saw that one

Rob Dawg said...

"Oh Mike. Sveta and Angela were the hoping for you to decide for helping them to choose new uniform. They saying problems with the tightness. You help, da?"

Mike said...

Enough with the damn uniforms!! get out there and kill some aliens!!

Mike said...

looking at Racine RE on Zillow..plenty o houses for under 80K...

Lawyerliz said...

Don't think that there's gonna be much pissing off by alarmed people.

Mike said...

Kenosha looks to have the better biking though..

Mike said...

instead of giving Foxconn $3 billion..Wisconsin should just build a dedicated paved bike trail from Kenosha to Green Bay (along the beautiful Lake Michigan coastline)...I guarantee you that would generate more economic activity

Mike said...

for some reason I'm nervous about a Seahawk preseason game tonight..

might be our OL...

Lawyerliz said...

Hurricane report?

Mike said...

wind..rain

Lawyerliz said...

It's up to a 4! People gonna die. Some aren't getting out. Darwin have mercy

Mike said...

Hire more scientists!!

Mike said...

Massage more data!!

Lawyerliz said...

I gather Mike has not seen the aftermath. I have. We didn't see the storm because we ran away

Mike said...

I understand the destruction a hurricane can unleash..

Mike said...

I have very little patience for people who try to capitalize on that natural phenomenon for their personal benefit however..

Lawyerliz said...

Good night everyone.

Lawyerliz said...

Who would that be?

Mike said...

if the shoe fits..wear it

Lawyerliz said...

It doesn't fit me.

Mike said...

just wish the people of Texas well Liz...that's enough

Cinco-X said...

Ummm... How about some busty Asian beauties?

UMDan said...

Racine and Kenosha are nice if you pick your spots - near the lake, nice neighborhoods, just like any other place in the good ol US of A. Places in the $80K range may not be where we want to live, and since it is our choice, we will decide accordingly.

Rubygoat said...

managed to beat the rain to my destination. Roads were shockingly normal. Storm should pass by the time I go home on Sunday, but I expect more traffic.

Rob Dawg said...

Kim didn't envy those gawky blondes. With all the grace her years on the national gymnastics team could instill she moved her lithe frame through the labrinyth of alien equipment never once having to concern herself with hitting her head on the low beams. Besides these new uniforms were no tighter or revealing than when she competing in front of thousands. Still she was not entirely at ease. Her team was an odd if strangely enticing lot. The American engineer and the reassigned NCIS agent in particular. At first she passed it off as the strangeness of the slowly deorbiting ship full of treasures to plunder but there was something else.

Lawyerliz said...

Yay

Lawyerliz said...

Yay ncis guy!

Lawyerliz said...

Anyone know anyone from Corpus Christie or Houston or NOLA???

Rubygoat said...

I am an hour north of houston and it just started raining

Rob Dawg said...

MidWest RevPAR numbers as going to be awesome.

The GEOS-16 pictures are stunning. 16 is still settling and testing for serious data but the pictures are fantastic.

The region is going to get a year's worth of our rainfall in a 72 hour period.

Looks like drive 'till you're dry worked for safety. The hard part will be keeping people away long enough for the flooding to pass. 3days adventure. 5days disruption. 8days and the 75% who live paycheck to paycheck will be desperate.

Mike said...

this is where having a RV like LBD's would be nice to have...just go park it outside of the rain zone for a couple days..then you can live out of it for a while back home if you have flood damage..

Rob Dawg said...

The dawghaus has two generators, a bromine hot tub (drinkable) and two of those outdoor Rubbermaid closets full of survival stuff. When the quake comes our biggest concern will be chilling the Chardonnay without the neighbors finding out.

Mike said...

how much fuel (for the generators) do you keep on hand?? I think I read somewhere they burn about a gallon per hour (gas)...so storing adequate fuel supplies to last more than a couple of days always seemed problematic to me.

Rob Dawg said...

Regular gas. The cars will be immobile so there is a week of half time. Consider a bad case. We run the 1200W about 2.8g per day and will be comfortable. We don't need 3500W all the time. Hardly ever. So girl is not an issue. Remember we will be boiling water and cooking on the propane grill. Keeping the freezer is the only heavy load concern.

Rob Dawg said...

Speak of which. Looks like extended power outages for a wide range in Texas. A reporter said 20 miles and not a single pole intact. This will be long and expensive.

Rubygoat said...

stopped in a gas station/eattery. dozens of linemen were in there filling up on their way into houston.

Mike said...

The whole gulf coast should really consider burying their utility lines...

Rob Dawg said...

You mean? Infrastructure? Pfft.
Next you will be putting out crazy stuff about stormproof school gyms.

Mike said...

yeah...why charge your customers for underground utilities when you can get FEMA to buy you new power poles every five years.. ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

This will not go over with Liz. On the patio of the Four Seasons enjoying a chamber trio drinking a flight of red wines. On our way to the Hollywood Bowl where Bryan Ferry will be playing with the LA Phil.

Lawyerliz said...

Envy

Rob Dawg said...

Turns out the chamber trio was there for a wedding. That was fun to watch while sipping. On the bus now to the Bowl.

Lawyerliz said...

Hangover?

Lawyerliz said...

Did you sneak in?

Mike said...

Turns out the chamber trio was there for a wedding.

so was the free food and wine Rob..hahahaha

Rob Dawg said...

Nah. They just had a rope for an end of the patio where we were seated. We were dressed for the Bowl not reception crashing. We were a bit ahead of schedule so stopped by an estate sale. Mrs Dawg got one of these:
http://m.ebay.com/itm/Disneys-Alice-in-Wonderland-Im-Late-signed-LE-Sericel-/253116968124?hash=item3aeef26cbc%3Ag%3ADuUAAOSwh5hZodV2&_trkparms=pageci%253Aecd8c8e9-8b3f-11e7-9c3d-74dbd1800cce%257Cparentrq%253A24663aa315e0a9c548cda8ebfffe263d%257Ciid%253A6

Lawyerliz said...

Houston, guy with a bulldozer with a scoop at the end. 3 or 4 people sitting on the scoop legs dangling down, being rescued.

Mike said...

The pictures coming out of Houston are horrifying..

Lawyerliz said...

There are 6.million people in that area. Feeding them is going to be a big problem very shortly. Like tomorrow

Lawyerliz said...

Also clean water and sewage handling, not to speak of electricity.

Lawyerliz said...

Only 1 out of 6 have flood insurance.

Lawyerliz said...

Pictures from toda, just as bad as yesterday. Flood pictures and then smashed by wind pictures. Little flooding in Andrew, much smashing.

Rob Dawg said...

Exurban nation. The name is the solution.

Lawyerliz said...

There are Texans or near Texans here aren't there?

Rob Dawg said...

A couple but I hear the electricity is widespread unreliable.

Lawyerliz said...

They used up all the marshes which could have sucked up the water.

Rubygoat said...

Almost no impact in Austin, but 45 min SE of here is completely wrecked.

Mike said...

the one in six (flood insurance) surprises me...Houston basically sits at sea level..so I would have guessed banks would require flood insurance for most properties as a condition of the mortgage..

Rubygoat said...

Banks only require flood insurance if the first finished floor is below the FEMA 100yr floodplain elevation. This is FAR beyond any of our design standards. I'm a certified floodplain manager and very familiar with the topic if you want to ask any wonky questions.

Mike said...

just looked at the FEMA flood plain map for Houston..and you're right..very little of it is in the "100 year" category..guess that will be changing

Rob Dawg said...

New post to ask RG questions.

Rubygoat said...

We won't change anything. This is beyond the 100 yr storm. The philosophy is that the cost to design everything to withstand an event of this magnitude is greater than the cost to just rebuild it if you happen to get hit. The design standard is set by congress and enacted by FEMA on a federal level. Cities have the option to enforce higher standards, but about the only thing that's designed to this this level are major dams (USACE projects) and even they take pretty regular maintenance to continue that level of saftey (see oroville dam for typical level of maintenance).

Lawyerliz said...

Agreed.