PMI Residential Real Estate Trends 2006 download pdf.
Red is 90% probability. That big blob in the lower left represents about a quarter of all US residential asset value.
As a result of deteriorating market conditions and the enhancements to the risk index model, the risk of home price declines increased in all of the Top 50 MSAs during the third quarter. California’s MSAs accounted for 7 of the 15 MSAs in the highest risk categories.
There is also a growing distinction in California between the performance of house prices in the northern parts of the state (dominated by the San Francisco Bay area), southern parts of the state (dominated by Los Angeles and San Diego), and the Central Valley (Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, etc). Housing markets in the Central Valley and Southern California MSAs are much weaker than those in the Northern California MSAs, where employment continues to be strong. The MSAs in Florida
account for 5 of the 15 highest ranked MSAs in the largest 50. Rounding out the group are Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Providence, which all experienced significant increases in their risk scores.
----If this perspective becomes common knowledge we can expect a huge number of homemoaners to review their housing strategy. I'll be plain. MILLIONS of people are only in the house they are in now because they thought they could capture apperciation. They are going to look at this and their monthly payment and taxes and see their investment 90% chance of eing lower and they are going to get out of that particular house. Or at least try. Grab some butt and hold on.