I've said elsewhere that we'll know with Pennsylvania and Virginia. Penn is must win for McCain and too close to call is enough to cinch it for the Big O with the Big Mo. Virginia just needs to go McCain by any margin. That means we are likely to have the election called 8:05 Pacific. Senate +6, House +24. America 0. The graphic is pretty close to my call from Electoral-Vote.
57 comments:
My God! If we can just get Ohio we can bifurcate them.
I find it interesting that McCain's home state isn't supporting him. AZ should be solidly red.
Prop,
That's just MSMspin. There's two things going on. The Bradley effect and the MSM effect. Registered Dems are not going to tell a pollster they are crossing. Second, the media is biasing the polls with any number of known techniques. They'll call a likely voter anyone they can reach who says as much for one.
I think America will settle for being '0', since it's sitting at about a -15 right now, and would have an increased downward movement with a McCain win.
How many disaffected Republicans will, after a major Obama victory, declare that they are going to move north to Canada where a god-respecting Conservative government was recently elected?
NR
PS Leave KC behind, s.v.p.
Problem is, where Canada was happy to take in disenchanted Democrats in 2004 they might just reject the antisocial American Republicans....Conservative != Conservative
In most European countries Obama would be placed in the centrist or progressive conservative parties.
McCain would be in the grouchy, never listened to, far right corner of the conservative spectrum.
Northern Renter - Don't worry about Casey heading North, that would require effort.
Unless one of your neighbors is going to buy him a ticket, he won't go.
Of course, we could take up a collection... but that's a waste of money. I'd only give if Casey promised not to come back - but his promises mean nothing.
After tonight, Our Long National Nightmare is finally over.
And I mean just the election seasong that has now spread over what? 2 years?
Please make it stop.
I hate to burst your bubble about ROTC (running over to Canada) but immigration will take over a year and will cost you a few thousand dollars. We have a backlog of about 1,000,000 immigrants at the moment. The only way to bypass this is if you have $500k, start a business and hire 3 Canadians or if you are a doctor.
Nick,
I was being facetious. We Montrealers are like that; it's a consequence of having a good hockey team (yeah, I'm assuming you're from Toronto. Am I right?)
NR
Non, je suis a vancouver
Breaking news; the not Republican beats the ghost of George Bush.
Oh and Nick, your avatar makes me nervous for some reason. ;-)
Hi there Dawg,
The original one was a baby harp seal. The new one is a baby harp seal hunter beating the crap out of the baby seal. The AV was intended to represent KC and what we would do to him if he tried to pull a stunt like he did in Canada
Uh, Oh! Time to start hiding income. I am gonna start growing arugula in the back yard to ingratiate myself with the overlords.
Adendum:
The AVs other meaning is that just because KC is cute, doesn't mean KC can get away with fraud.
As much as I dislike Obama the person, I must respect his campaign. He's going to pull out Indiana even though the GOP governor is re-elected with nearly 60% of the vote. I'm just "hoping" he proves me wrong with his actions over the next 4 years.
Time to make some income to hide.
No one should be worried about Obama. He's Clinton 2. Nancy "The Joker" Pelosi and Hairy Reed are the real problems.
Remember 1992? Dems had it all. For 2 years. But they got cocky. Just like Reps in 2004.
Pelosi and Reed are now feeling like Tom Foley did 16 years ago. They will be busy the next 2 years pushing their agendas, while Obama will beg and plead with them behind closed doors to STFU. Pelosi and Reed will rush to pass laws to satisfy the kook fringe (such as the "Fairness" Doctrine and bans on scary-looking weapons), thereby firing up the center and right. 2010 will be 1994.
Which is good. Most sane people want a divided government.
Do I hear something squeeking? Pennsylvania? Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania? John "I want nuclear power plants everywhere" McCain? Florida? John "I want offshore oil wells everywhere" McCain? Wait a minute...I don't hear it anymore.
Lou,
Bingo. Pelosi is now dangerous.
I am so happy. I wish that you could all share in the joy.
Musical post. With hippie pictures.
Traffic - Many A Mile To Freedom
Congrats to the Democrats for winning this one. I hope it is a wake up call to the GOP to stop only thinking about themselves, just like after the Ford defeat. They got their privates slammed in the door jam.
Funny how the tin foil crowd had no problems with evil voting machines when they win. Will be interesting next election to see if the whining starts up again.
Don't worry about republicans running to Canada. They are not pussies who cut and run like those media jerkoffs who proclaimed such tripe in 00 and 04. We will just wait for these pinheads totally screw the pooch just like they did with Jimmie Carter. In 4 years, we will whipped them good and then rein for another 20.
you heard it hear first.
I hope the GOP once and for all notices that courting the latino crowd serves no purpose to them. If McCain could not take California, what republican could?
Looking forward to no more attack ads on the tv/radio for at least 4 months. I need a break.
Guess that is the end of the Presidental run for Hillary. She cannot run against the imcumbant in 2012 and by 2016 her expiration date will be been passed. Looks like Teddy checkmated her and Bill once and for all.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 4 more years when radio/blogsphere has been weakened by the fairness doctorine and half the major newspapers have slid beneath the waves from bankrupcies. Canada media here we come.
Lord save us all. We have a major financial crisis on our hand and are only 1/3rd the way from even seeing daylight. Us old bucks remember the pain caused by Jimmie Carter and the wack jobs who were swept in with public voter disgust in 1976 ("throw the bums out"). Hope history does not repeat itself of poor choices that took 15 years to correct.
h.
Wow. A sweeping victory for Obama in the newly blue exurbs. The future looks bright.
By the way "From each according to their ability to each according to their needs." Was that Marx or Jesus? I get them confused.
Lou: Right on.
The challenge for the right-wing leadership will be in getting past Obama. He is both moderate and popular, and should not be their target. Congress, on the other hand, is scraping the bottom of the popularity barrel, and there will be no shortage of closet Socialists trying to push radical social agendas over the resistance of the few sensible Democrats, and the Democratic leadership engaging in the same kind of cronyism and corruption that sank the Republican leadership. Obama will be wondering what he did wrong to inherit the mess.
In any case, the Republican leadership would do well to remember that the next election is not 2012, it's 2010. I don't know if 2010 will be 1994, but there's a good chance it will be.
Lost Cause:
"I am so happy. I wish that you could all share in the joy."
I'm mixed - happy about Obama, but sad that Prop 8 looks like it passed. Strange that on the day we elect a black man to the highest office in the nation, there is still enough ignorance / bigotry out there to pass something like that.
H. Simpson -
"They got their privates slammed in the door jam."
Ouch. Accurate assessment, but ouch. I'm going to have that image in my mind all day now... thanks.
Reagan did everything that Carter did, but he had better public relations.
Looks like Sen. Stevens is winning in Alaska. 7 felonies, what exactly do you have to do to get booted out?
I've long thought that elections should be pro rated for incumbency. Plurality and/or 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, term limits.
So sad that California has discrimination now written into the constitution. Hopefully the court will strike this down again.
But it looks like we will be getting high speed rail.
Incumbents rarely face tight elections unless they have been especially badly behaved. I'm not sure a 60% margin would really help that much.
What would help would be voters realizing that their elected representatives are there to represent them in leading the nation, not "bring home the bacon." But the "bringing home the bacon" mentality has become so entrenched in Congressional races that it provides an inherent advantage to incumbents, as they can point to the mountain of pork they have brought home to their districts, while the challenger hasn't yet landed a single scrap of Federal assistance. It's amazing, but for all voters claim to hate corruption in government, voters can't see it when their own incumbent politician is bragging about it.
So sad that California has discrimination now written into the constitution.
Not at all. Gays have been marrying for centuries. Gays aren't prohibited from marrying. Surely you don't assert that we should have no restrictions on marriage?
peripheral visionary said...
Incumbents rarely face tight elections unless they have been especially badly behaved. I'm not sure a 60% margin would really help that much.
Disagree. The incumbent advantage discourages opposition candidates. Knowing you only need 40% or 45% changes the math.
I await with great anticipation the California Supreme Court rendering a verdict that their own Constitution is unConstitutional.
It would only confirm what fools they are; but then, they'd be right there with the people who don't have an answer for why, across thousands of years of human history, nobody else came up with the bright idea of redefining marriage, even in ancient societies with attitudes toward homosexuality even more permissive than our own.
I obviously have no problem with the outcome. Both sides got what they wanted: social conservatives were able to defend the traditional family structure, and social liberals got another opportunity to enjoy a feeling of moral superiority and look down on the "close-minded". Win-win™.
Rob: Not at all. Gays have been marrying for centuries. Gays aren't prohibited from marrying. Surely you don't assert that we should have no restrictions on marriage?
You're way ahead of me. As the utterly tasteless "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" demonstrated, there would have been no test for sexual orientation under the new law . . . just as there is no test for sexual orientation under the old law.
So can the media please stop calling it "gay marriage"? "Gay marriage" would be Ellen DeGeneres marrying Elton John. The technical term is "same-sex marriage", or "genderless marriage".
peripheral visionary said...
I await with great anticipation the California Supreme Court rendering a verdict that their own Constitution is unConstitutional.
Why hold your breath? It is almost an institution here. Prop 187 for but one instance. If you come from New Mexico you pay out of state tuition but if you come from Mexico you pay in state tuition. Gee, how many Federal Constitutional articles does that violate?
Don't forget Prop 22 - which banned same sex marriage and was overturned.
When the CA Constitution is in conflict with itself, one of the conflicting pieces gets ruled unconsittutional.
1. Pelosi is an idiot and Obama will have his hands full with Congress. If he can keep them in check, he will likely be there 8 years.
2. It is not that our Constitution that will be beclared unconstitutional. It is laws relating to marriage. And getting getting the Democratic legislature to pass a global change where legal terminology is now Civil Union should not be that hard.
3. Having the legal system work with Civil Unions instead of marriage is probably a good idea
Serinitis - Sadly, prop 8 is an amendment to the CA Constitution. That it makes the Constitution conflict with itself matters not at all... until it hits the courts.
Yeah for CA - we have the proposition system where any idiot can get an amendment to the state Constitution with just a simple majority of the voters... and you don't even have to be logical when writing your amendment.
Such a great comment, it posted twice. :)
Now that conservatives have lost big we need to be gracious and present our ideas constructively. Let's show the liberals how decent people act when they are out of power. I am actually relieved to see an end to the left wing vitriol. If Obama and his party can lead us out of the problems we have with this economy they will be in power for a long time and many conservatives will move to the Democratic party. If they get wacky with social policy they will lose the next election by losing all of those conservative battle ground states that voted to give Democrats the reins to the economy.
Power is fleeting.
prop 2 passed in Mass allowing being caught with less than an oz of dope to mean pay a fine and forgetaboutit. No record.
Should save many a kid from ruining their life for a bad decision in college.
when things get bad, everyone can just light up a spleef.
h.
And the lawsuits begin!
Yup, voting not complete and there is already a legal challenge on Prop 8 to the CA Supremes. Stay tuned, this won't go away for quite some time.
w said...
Now that conservatives have lost big we need to be gracious and present our ideas constructively.
I disagree. We conservatives lost long ago. Relegated to vassal status it was the Republicans who lost. Time to reassert.
Let's show the liberals how decent people act when they are out of power.
McCain gave a good start and of course no violence. Tough acts to follow on the other side.
I am actually relieved to see an end to the left wing vitriol.
No end. this is the beginning. You think Pelosi is satisfied?
If Obama and his party can lead us out of the problems we have with this economy they will be in power for a long time and many conservatives will move to the Democratic party.
No. Whomsoever was gong to take over in January was doomed by events to being a one termer presiding over massive party losses.
If you come from New Mexico you pay out of state tuition but if you come from Mexico you pay in state tuition.
Yes, but what do you pay if you're going to school in Mexico but you're from New Mexico?
I am actually relieved to see an end to the left wing vitriol.
You think this is the end to the left-wing vitriol? Take another look at the facts. Left-wing shrills live for blogging; bloggers live for hits; attacking the current President generates hits like nothing else. A left-of-center President isn't as attractive a target as a (barely)-right-of-center President, but you attack the President you've got, not the one you wish you've got. The left-wing vitriol isn't going away, not by any stretch of the imagination, its target will simply shift.
es, but what do you pay if you're going to school in Mexico but you're from New Mexico?
You pay with your life?
Seriously, ain't nobody gonna give me a pat for the 354 electoral and popular vote calls?
Rob, The GOP of the 80's is now done. The Bush's, Dole's, McCain etc are completely devoid of power and brand. A new brand with a new world view and set of experiences is coming. People who can express their ideas verbally will be a nice change from Bush, Dole, and McCain. None of these guys could do more than read a teleprompter. I like listening to GOPers like Huckabee, Gingrich, and McClintock.
The vitriol from the blogosphere lost it's target. I agree it will take a new form but that will only marginalize their views. Conservatives need to smile, be helpful, stand up for their ideas even though they will lose and just watch the show. If we are wrong about things and Obama saves the day not only will it blow our minds but we will be changed.
W -
Sexy Sarah is now the face of the GOP. Isn't that a hoot...
Good God, she's the best thing to happen to the Democrats since G.W. Bush. Drives the center (and even moderate Repubs) right over to the left.
Sarah is nothing but cover.
She won't be running again. She'll finish her term and become a day time talk show host.
Seriously, ain't nobody gonna give me a pat for the 354 electoral and popular vote calls?
*pat*
:D
Good call, a lot of the media people were still stuck in September when McCain actually had a chance of losing slightly less horrendously.
PF, the left has Palin (although not for long, agreed that she's ultimately headed toward a media venue), but the right has Biden. You can't buy source material of the kind that Biden provides for free on a daily basis.
I agree with w that the best approach for the Republicans will be to smile, be supportive, but continue to stand for their views. It may take some time, but circumstances will turn in conservatives' favor. Conservatism, the real kind, not the big-government-in-conservative-clothing kind, has a long-term advantage over progressivism: it's cheap. Progressivism costs a lot more money than conservatism; and when the government is out of money, the only options left are conservatism, libertarianism, or anarchy.
Has anyone told Palin that she won't be the face of the Repubs? I'm not convinced she won't stay on as Gov and at least toss her hat in the ring for 2012.
Definitely agree that the Repubs will be swinging back to basics for the 2010 Congressional elections and absolutely will be for 2012.
Good thing too - the elements that were in power behind Bush Jr. were scary.
Gay marriage will not go away till gays have the right to marry.
Conservatives should not be gracious if it means abandoning their principles. The fight for control of the Republican party is going to be nasty. Be prepared to stick up for what is right.
An end to left wing vitrol?????
Bwahahahahaha
Rush is still going strong though his targets were essentially out of power in 1980.
Sarah will throw her hat in the ring for 2012. She will not get far.
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