Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Wrightwood Round Trips Plus
Last sale dates of 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Of course the last was a bank repo. Where will the Great Unwind leave us? 1998 with 8 up years and 6 down years? Ouch.
Tree streets run up the hill from the highway. Girls and birds run crosswise. Thus Elm, Walnut, Pine up and down. Betty, Edna, Laura across. Also Partridge, Eagle, Robin, Thrush also across in the other half of town.
Exception: Atherosclerotic Walrus Avenue wanders ineffectively and is always congested.
Ohh look at those poor, poor sellers all caught up in the housing crisis. Ah well, at least the latest moratorium lets them enjoy that nice summer mountain air payment-free for a few more months.
"Sadly, Wrightwood is empty. No people. These are/were second homes or investment properties. The community is broken."
Rob,
Back in the late 80's/early 90's my friends and I would make the Socal-Wrightwood run on our liter bikes. Usually on a Tues or Wed. The places we ate at loved us because most of the time we were the only business...
Wrightwood had always been built on tourisim as far as I could remember. I can't imagine someone making that run south every day. Then again some pretty remote spots here in Florida got severly run up also.
@Dave - That's a nice neighborhood, but of course the price is ludicrous. The lot looks like it's worth maybe $1.5M tops, so the house plus lot should be maybe $2.5M. The three dishwashers are so that you don't need to have staff. ;-)
@Rob - so what is the attraction of Wrightwood? I guess if you were a writer and you needed an isolation tank in the wilderness...
Yeah. A nice isolation tank (with wi-fi), get away from it all, some brainstroming, getting plans together, a nice braindump. And the price is just right!
I can't speak specifically for Wrightwood, but in our Brave New Economy, there are a certain number of people who have a lot of flexibility in choosing where to live: telecommuters, but also artists, and retirees, and what I call "airplane commuters", people who fly to their place of work (e.g. traveling salesmen, although they're becoming less common as companies cut back on travel budgets.)
A certain number of people can live anywhere they want, so relatively nice communities, even very remote ones, will have a certain minimum level of demand. If the weather's good and the views are nice, people will want to live there. That explains Wrightwood; it also explains a number of remote communities in Utah, Montana, Vermont, upstate New York, etc.
There are a couple of qualifications. Nobody wants to live in a ghost town or a dump, and if a town gets sufficiently empty and/or run down, the telecommuters et al. may go elsewhere. Also, for reasons I can't comprehend, a lot of telecommuters insist on living in high-cost areas; San Diego, San Francisco, NYC etc. have large numbers of writers, traveling salesmen, retirees etc., which makes no sense to me at all, but whatever.
Regarding my favorite entertainment, the CA state budget:
"Firing school custodians isn't exactly the way to fix the budget mess," said Marty Hittelman, president of the California Federation of Teachers. "The way to do it is to initiate some revenues, some progressive taxes that tax those who can best afford to help us create the society they grew up in and flourished under. But it's kind of a cheap shot to go after those low paid workers in our schools to balance the budget."
I actually agree with Marty Hittelman, president of the California Federation of Teachers. Firing school custodians isn't the way to fix the budget mess. The way to fix the budget mess is to fire higher-paid state employees, like prison guards, school system bureaucrats, police force desk jobs, and Sacramento staffers. Somebody needs to sweep the floors, but beyond that, there are plenty of state jobs that can be disposed of, and plenty of current and former state workers whose salaries and pensions can be cut. No need to pull low-income janitors into it.
Actually, it usually is their connections they bring to increase donations.
Look at Larry Summers. When those pinhead Harvard professors badmouthed him, he derailed their donation stream faster then Gen Sherman did to the stockyards of Atlanta.
Think venture captialists. They get the big bucks not because they are so smart, but rather, they know who to contact to scrape up coin quickly.
So is Wall Street trying to get back into it? Do they think things are ready to swing the other way?
I noticed all the big firms started advertising on tv again last week after 6 months of laying low. Just like after the crash of 2001.
Now we have this poor me the victim story. http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/107145/From-Ordering-Steak-and-Lobster-to-Serving-It
No questions to Carlos on how he felt making the working class poor and die from not having heat when he helped hike the price of fuel for years. Or maybe how the games of driving gas to $4 a gallon killed any chance of a quick recovery and with it his golden goose.
To quote President Ford when NYC crashed the last time and was moaning like victims "Drop Dead".
Be it California flippers/banksters, Wall Street oil traders, outsource crazy CEOs, or union folks with insane expectations, President Obama's spiritual advisor said it best "The chickens have come home to roost".
I have lost any faith that this depression will be short. Until the enablers understand they are not victims but causes, we will spiral downward. None have said they were wrong and they will never do it again.
It is unknown whether Casey is still working for Angel. There is some evidence that he is. However he does not appear to be in control of the blog. Angel is answering comments directly and letting comments through that Casey would catch.
Umm...how long ago was it that over $100,000 for a little cabin in the mountains was unheard of? 10 years ago? I think these prices for recreational property are still crazy.
I think during the peak bubble years there developed the idea of a "location" premium--the notion that just because a home was located in a certain state or a certain metro area, it could not be worth less than a certain arbitrary amount. That's how ramshackle cabins in the middle of nowhere in California (or cinder block cells with barred windows in the middle of the inner city) came to be $300,000 or more--"it's California", people thought, "houses here cost at least $300,000."
That notion hasn't completely dispelled--hence the number of ramshackle cabins hanging in right at the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The thought that any property of any size or quality located within the Golden State could go for less than $100,000 is still unthinkable. Well, not yet, anyway . . .
Unrelated, I'll be offline for a couple of weeks, dropping some of Dr. Ben's Marvelous Patented Helicopter Paper ("So lightweight, you'll think we made it out of thin air!") on an undeserving foreign country.
Last sale dates of 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Of course the last was a bank repo. Where will the Great Unwind leave us? 1998 with 8 up years and 6 down years? Ouch.
26 comments:
Why do the streets have female names?
Betty St? Laura St? Barbara St? Atherosclerotic Walrus Avenue??
FIRST. :-p
Now, that made me laugh.
Tree streets run up the hill from the highway. Girls and birds run crosswise. Thus Elm, Walnut, Pine up and down. Betty, Edna, Laura across. Also Partridge, Eagle, Robin, Thrush also across in the other half of town.
Exception: Atherosclerotic Walrus Avenue wanders ineffectively and is always congested.
Ohh look at those poor, poor sellers all caught up in the housing crisis.
Ah well, at least the latest moratorium lets them enjoy that nice summer mountain air payment-free for a few more months.
Sadly, Wrightwood is empty. No people. These are/were second homes or investment properties. The community is broken.
Here's a listing of loveliness. Of course, Google Maps just shows a pit.
3 dishwashers for 5 bedrooms?!?
"Sadly, Wrightwood is empty. No people. These are/were second homes or investment properties. The community is broken."
Rob,
Back in the late 80's/early 90's my friends and I would make the Socal-Wrightwood run on our liter bikes. Usually on a Tues or Wed. The places we ate at loved us because most of the time we were the only business...
Wrightwood had always been built on tourisim as far as I could remember. I can't imagine someone making that run south every day.
Then again some pretty remote spots here in Florida got severly run up also.
Chris
The one on the top. Does it come with the dumpster?
The dumpster was still there last week.
@Dave - That's a nice neighborhood, but of course the price is ludicrous. The lot looks like it's worth maybe $1.5M tops, so the house plus lot should be maybe $2.5M. The three dishwashers are so that you don't need to have staff. ;-)
@Rob - so what is the attraction of Wrightwood? I guess if you were a writer and you needed an isolation tank in the wilderness...
Yeah. A nice isolation tank (with wi-fi), get away from it all, some brainstroming, getting plans together, a nice braindump. And the price is just right!
On the 2nd listing.
If you are returning home, are going going up Sheep's Creek without a paddle?
Thank you. Please tip your waiters and try the veal..
h.
"so what is the attraction of Wrightwood?"
I can't speak specifically for Wrightwood, but in our Brave New Economy, there are a certain number of people who have a lot of flexibility in choosing where to live: telecommuters, but also artists, and retirees, and what I call "airplane commuters", people who fly to their place of work (e.g. traveling salesmen, although they're becoming less common as companies cut back on travel budgets.)
A certain number of people can live anywhere they want, so relatively nice communities, even very remote ones, will have a certain minimum level of demand. If the weather's good and the views are nice, people will want to live there. That explains Wrightwood; it also explains a number of remote communities in Utah, Montana, Vermont, upstate New York, etc.
There are a couple of qualifications. Nobody wants to live in a ghost town or a dump, and if a town gets sufficiently empty and/or run down, the telecommuters et al. may go elsewhere. Also, for reasons I can't comprehend, a lot of telecommuters insist on living in high-cost areas; San Diego, San Francisco, NYC etc. have large numbers of writers, traveling salesmen, retirees etc., which makes no sense to me at all, but whatever.
PV -
Proximity to the airport is a big factor. The other one is friends / family.
Regarding my favorite entertainment, the CA state budget:
"Firing school custodians isn't exactly the way to fix the budget mess," said Marty Hittelman, president of the California Federation of Teachers. "The way to do it is to initiate some revenues, some progressive taxes that tax those who can best afford to help us create the society they grew up in and flourished under. But it's kind of a cheap shot to go after those low paid workers in our schools to balance the budget."
Makes me want to puke.
I actually agree with Marty Hittelman, president of the California Federation of Teachers. Firing school custodians isn't the way to fix the budget mess. The way to fix the budget mess is to fire higher-paid state employees, like prison guards, school system bureaucrats, police force desk jobs, and Sacramento staffers. Somebody needs to sweep the floors, but beyond that, there are plenty of state jobs that can be disposed of, and plenty of current and former state workers whose salaries and pensions can be cut. No need to pull low-income janitors into it.
My favorite is the new President of the UC system. He's making over $800k / year (plus has a house provided, car, etc.).
President Obama only makes $400k, what justifies having a university pres making double that?
PF
Greed
Actually, it usually is their connections they bring to increase donations.
Look at Larry Summers.
When those pinhead Harvard professors badmouthed him, he derailed their donation stream faster then Gen Sherman did to the stockyards of Atlanta.
Think venture captialists. They get the big bucks not because they are so smart, but rather, they know who to contact to scrape up coin quickly.
h.
So is Wall Street trying to get back into it? Do they think things are ready to swing the other way?
I noticed all the big firms started advertising on tv again last week after 6 months of laying low. Just like after the crash of 2001.
Now we have this poor me the victim story.
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/107145/From-Ordering-Steak-and-Lobster-to-Serving-It
No questions to Carlos on how he felt making the working class poor and die from not having heat when he helped hike the price of fuel for years.
Or maybe how the games of driving gas to $4 a gallon killed any chance of a quick recovery and with it his golden goose.
To quote President Ford when NYC crashed the last time and was moaning like victims "Drop Dead".
Be it California flippers/banksters, Wall Street oil traders, outsource crazy CEOs, or union folks with insane expectations, President Obama's spiritual advisor said it best "The chickens have come home to roost".
I have lost any faith that this depression will be short. Until the enablers understand they are not victims but causes, we will spiral downward. None have said they were wrong and they will never do it again.
h.
Sorry to change subject but what is up with casey?
Did he get fired?
Caseypedia says he's no longer working for angle Lynn.
Here's a video of Serin cavorting with the rest of his criminal family.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXYDaZ1h1kc&feature=channel_page
It is unknown whether Casey is still working for Angel. There is some evidence that he is. However he does not appear to be in control of the blog. Angel is answering comments directly and letting comments through that Casey would catch.
Angel is a dead end. Near as I can tell she gave a kid a chance with a minimal character search and has since corrected that oversight.
Umm...how long ago was it that over $100,000 for a little cabin in the mountains was unheard of? 10 years ago? I think these prices for recreational property are still crazy.
This is SoCal. Routine sub $100k in Wrightwood was 1996. Well that and post 2010. ;-)
A lot of SoCal is fingernail holding on. If it gets any worse whole cities will implode.
I think during the peak bubble years there developed the idea of a "location" premium--the notion that just because a home was located in a certain state or a certain metro area, it could not be worth less than a certain arbitrary amount. That's how ramshackle cabins in the middle of nowhere in California (or cinder block cells with barred windows in the middle of the inner city) came to be $300,000 or more--"it's California", people thought, "houses here cost at least $300,000."
That notion hasn't completely dispelled--hence the number of ramshackle cabins hanging in right at the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The thought that any property of any size or quality located within the Golden State could go for less than $100,000 is still unthinkable. Well, not yet, anyway . . .
Unrelated, I'll be offline for a couple of weeks, dropping some of Dr. Ben's Marvelous Patented Helicopter Paper ("So lightweight, you'll think we made it out of thin air!") on an undeserving foreign country.
They're freakin' cabins in the woods!
Very old cabins that probably need a lot of fixin' up.
Knock the leading "1" off the price and they're reasonable.
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