Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Recovery

Everyone is all smiles over the Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators[pdf] and this map showing "green shoots."


Unfortunately a bit of green in Montana doesn't mean much when there are 36 million people in California and a whopping 950,000 in Big Sky Country. Here's a population adjusted cartogram:


A GDP adjusted chartogram would be even less encouraging.

21 comments:

Brian said...
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Brian said...
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Rob Dawg said...

Brian, I linked this post to a serious blog and plain old didn't need off topic this time. Get a hint. If you enable profile access you can still get the sweet traffic counts.

Lex said...

Amazing what $3 trillion will do.

Lou Minatti said...

Hey Rob, you shouldn't be so hard on the concept of "California". It will continue to be the biggest, baddest, richest state in the US... once (and if) you get the shitheads in Sacramento to straighten up.

It will happen. Just give it time. California has too much going for it, despite its current Welfare Queen of the US (along with NY) status. There's no need to break the state up.

Doubt me? Consider your relatives back east, freezing their asses off. And it's only November. I hear people say they really like having four seasons, but in reality shoveling snow sucks major ass. People who say they like four seasons are full of crap.

Anyway, if California can't get its act together we welcome you northeasterners down here in Hellhole. Wagon trains are no longer required and we provide air conditioning.

Pleather Murse said...

Not to mention that any nationwide charts that only have resolution on the level of entire states simply don't have enough granularity to paint an accurate picture. It's like those state-by-state election maps where a state can either be red or blue -- very unrealistic. If you go down to the county level, the accuracy is a lot better (although many counties are huge geographically but small in population.) Your population adjusted map makes a lot more sense, but still shows the outline of each state even though it is really quite abstract at that point. A graph with no state outlines but dots for 'x' population would be even more accurate. Thus Illinois wouldn't show as a big outline of Illinois but as a dense cluster of dots stretching from Milwaukee through Chicago to Gary, with the rest of the state very sparsely dotted; NY would be massively clustered around NYC, etc. (Of course, if the depicted changes are not coincident with these large urban areas, that would show too.)

Pleather Murse said...

L.A. analysts project $1-billion budget gap by 2013

Los Angeles could face a $1-billion deficit by the time Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa wraps up his second term in 2013, a dire forecast driven primarily by escalating employee pension costs and stagnant tax revenues, the city's top budget analyst said Wednesday.

The grim financial outlook came a day after the city's credit rating was downgraded by Wall Street-based Fitch Ratings.

City Administrative Officer Miguel Santana told City Council members that if they hope to end L.A.'s incessant practice of spending more than it collects they must make severe, and almost assuredly unpopular, cuts to some existing services and possibly eliminate some departments.

Closing the projected budget shortfalls in the years ahead also will require significant reform of the city employee pension systems, such as creating a lower tier of benefits -- a change that would require voter approval, Santana said.

Noticeably absent from the discussion was any talk of raising taxes or fees. Instead, Santana suggested that Villaraigosa and the council consider more creative ways to raise money, such as privatizing the Los Angeles Convention Center and the L.A. Zoo.

"In this economy, you don't want to talk about raising taxes," said Councilman Greig Smith, who represents the northwest San Fernando Valley. "I don't think voters are in any mood for increasing parcel taxes."

Los Angeles faces a $98-million shortfall in the 2009-2010 budget year, and with steep declines expected in revenue from property-related taxes, sales taxes, hotel taxes and other fees, that deficit could widen. Santana said the city would be forced to dip into its emergency reserve fund to cover the shortfall, a move expected to lead to another downgrade of the city's credit rating.

L.A. Times
ttp://tinyurl.com/ykhvx5z

getyourselfconnected said...

Great find! The adjusted graph is FAR more informative.

Have a great Thanksgiving all!

w said...

You are right Lou, but there will be fewer wealthy people living what we think of as a traditional middle class lifestyle and a lot more poor folks who come here because there are jobs and it is a nice place to be poor.

tj and the bear said...

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!!

wagga said...

Santa Barbara: this park features dozens of "transients" enjoying exactly the same climate as the billionaires in Montecito.

If the economic climate for my tiny software company doesn't improve soon, you know where to find me...

edgar said...

Sure Lou, the weather is great in Cali, it is the people who make it suck ass candy.

Pleather Murse said...

DJIA futures down 204 points right now ... Dubai thing I'm figurin' ...

Rob Dawg said...

Down 270 now. Could be interesting.

Lost Cause said...

Dubai plans on defaulting, LA a billion in the hole, Black Friday is here and there is no death toll yet...I am just not hearing "Happy Days are Here Again."

Peripheral Visionary said...

Belated Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Markets are recovering on the assumption that Abu Dhabi will be riding in to bail out Dubai and/or that $60 billion isn't all that much (and nobody else--and I mean nobody!--has a cent invested in the ongoing bust that is Dubai.) Some overseas markets have broken down, but the uptrend in the U.S. market is still intact. Let the freshly minted pesodollars flow!

晴天 said...

take care yourself!! ^^..................................................

Orange10 said...

Barney Fag needs to hang for crimes against humanity.

AnonyRuss said...

On Greg Swann's video report from from his bunker, he pontificates on his own mistakes, why bubble bloggers were mean, and related material.


http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=10440

getyourselfconnected said...

Off topic but,

Monster Monday Night Football game tonight!

Lou Minatti said...

Rob, buddy. You need to check in once in a while and cull the dickhead trolls.