Wednesday, November 11, 2009

SoCal ROI for Sept '08 to Sept '09


First some background and the results for July:

40 years ago Ventura and Orange counties were virtually identical. Obviously they've taken different paths to get where they are today. In one respect however they have roughly paced each other; median housing prices. For one month at the peak the Ventura median exceeded Orange. With the smaller base Ventura is more exagerated and quicker to respond.
Here are the "returns" for your housing investment purchase of the median house in SoCal Jul '08:
Los Angeles $80k down payment $6600/mo equity decline -99%/yr return
Orange $92k down payment $3400/mo equity decline -44%/yr return
Riverside $52k down payment $6200/mo equity decline -144%/yr return
San Bernardino $46k down payment $7500/mo equity decline -195%/yr return
San Diego $44k down payment $3700/mo equity decline -61%/yr return
Ventura $64k down payment $3800/mo equity decline -56%/yr return
I'd like to call your attention to what happened to the knife catchers in the Inland Empire (Riverside & San Bernardino) last year. Now, extrapolate. The IE has in the past been a leading indicator of the Coast. Ruh roh. I expect another leg down in the coastal communities but with substantial local variations.

Here's October:
Los Angeles $72k down payment $2500/mo equity decline -42%/yr return
Orange $85k down payment $340/mo equity increase +4.7%/yr return
Riverside $47k down payment $4375/mo equity decline -114%/yr return
San Bernardino $41k down payment $4580/mo equity decline -134%/yr return
San Diego $66k down payment $250/mo equity decline -3%/yr return
Ventura $77k down payment $1100/mo equity decline -43%/yr return

So much for buying at the bottom. This is definitely a metric worth watching.

10 comments:

sm_landlord said...

First, let's talk about trains:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-trains-suck-2009-11

w said...

Woo hoo! Peak Gold

Lou Minatti said...

Rob, I don't understand this post. Last I heard, Californians don't need down payments. If there's no down payment why would they lose any equity?

Lou Minatti said...

sm_landlord, that story is retarded. They compare Paris-Marseille to Chicago-Dyersburg, TN for Pete's sake. Really lame shit.

NY-Boston-Washington are legit comparisons.

Pleather Murse said...

Protesting truckers create gridlock on Long Beach Freeway and downtown L.A.

Scores of protesting truck drivers are slowing traffic on the Long Beach Freeway this morning, flashing their lights and hoping to raise attention about new environmental fees at the ports that they say threaten their livelihoods.

Up to 100 trucks are driving northbound on the 710, and are north of the San Diego Freeway, according to California Highway Patrol Officer Francisco Villalobos. The CHP was not told in advance about the protest, and is sending units to monitor it.

According to the National Port Drivers Assn., the caravan of trucks is driving from the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports – among the largest in the world – to Los Angeles City Hall. They are protesting new container fees contained in the Clean Truck Program that they say are hurting independent truckers’ income.

Commuters might want to consider alternative routes, such as the 605 Freeway.

http://tinyurl.com/y8o8mrz

Lost Cause said...

I think I am going to fart out the window at my neighbors in sympathy with the truckers.

Lost Cause said...

Pfizer to Leave City That Won Land-Use Case

“Look what they did,” Mr. Cristofaro said on Thursday. “They stole our home for economic development. It was all for Pfizer, and now they get up and walk away.”

That sentiment has been echoing around New London since Monday, when Pfizer, the giant drug company, announced it would leave the city just eight years after its arrival led to a debate about urban redevelopment that rumbled through the United States Supreme Court, and reset the boundaries for governments to seize private land for commercial use.

Tyrone said...

Great stuff posted over at JMineset...

Compare your State to California's Debacle

Time Lapse Unemployment: Counties of the USA
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Jean ValJean said...

How low will he go?

Lou Minatti said...

Rob, are you trying to morph into Steve Serin? How about some updates? :-)