Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Monday, December 10, 2012
From Fruits and Huts to Taxes and Deficits
The latest monthly revenue for the State is out and it is not good. Really not good. If it weren't for Apple stock sales front running the cap gains increase it would be fiscal emergency sized not good. Here's the snapshot:
Things to notice. • Corporate taxes running 30% below estimates. • Personal income taxes on budget but 11% higher than last year. • Retail enough lower that the Prop 30 revenue is unlikely to meet goal. 10% of all sales tax revenue is gasoline. Falling prices and declining consumption are going to be a permanent drag on that component. Total employment is generally flat as well. Corporations are not just fleeing the State with their mobile assets and employees but they are running down what assets they leave behind. We are increasingly trying to extract more and more from a shrinking base. My guess is that we get the draconian cuts that Prop 30 was supposed to forestall. The Republicans in the legislature should take the principled stand in the budget process and not participate and vote present. Next I will have a post discussing the 800 lb gorilla in the budget. Local "support" is running way above projections.