Charting is an occult practice. Humans seek patterns, even invent them when there are none. Witness the 6 years of GDX (Gold miners ETF)and F (Ford) lockstep:
Now see what happened in the ensuing 18 months.
How about this then? Gas prices. Lower highs and lower lows. Clearly the future is spelled out for anyone who can read a graph.
Or is it? Same chart expanded to ten years from 18 months:
Here's how far I trust charting:
38 comments:
Off topic, but I just ran across another piece of evidence that new urbanism is saving Los Angeles:)
L.A. is facing a grim tomorrow, panel says
"Los Angeles is a city facing economic decline, weighed down by poverty, strangled by traffic and suffering from a crisis of leadership, according to a report released Wednesday by a 13-member panel of influential civic leaders."
"The Los Angeles 2020 Commission offered a harsh assessment of government decision-making, warning that the nation's second-largest city is heading to a future where it can no longer afford to provide public services. Among a litany of problems highlighted in the report are underfunded retirement programs for City Hall employees, slower police and fire response times, and government spending that is growing faster than revenue."
The answer is right there staring back at them and they refuse to see it.
Perhaps they can start from scratch after that overdue monster quake hits.
3 million people needing a bath and the nearest spigot in Bakersfield.
I always get a kick out of these Centurbanist. Cities would be the human equivalent of CAFOs if they weren't able to pilfer resources from the surrounding countryside.
First N America H5N1 bird flu death confirmed in Canada
Canadian Health Minister Rona Ambrose said the deceased person was an Alberta resident who had recently travelled to Beijing.
Calling the death an "isolated case", Ms Ambrose said the risk to the general population was low.
How Did The Democrats Become The Party Of The Rich?
If you brought back either of the Roosevelts—Teddy or Franklin—from the grave, the most astonishing thing they would find is that the “malefactors of great wealth” have become the benefactors of today’s liberalism, and Democrats have become the party of the rich. In the economic crisis of the 1930s, the rich hated FDR. Most of today’s rich love Barack Obama—so much so that Washington D.C. area airports ran out of space to handle all of the private jets flying in the well-heeled for both of his inaugurals. Forget the “limousine liberals” of the 1960s and 1970s, sending their own kids to private schools while advocating forced busing for everyone else; behold today’s burgeoning class of “Gulfstream liberals,” who jet about the globe while fretting about global warming.
While Americans Were Debating 'Duck Dynasty'...
- A major corruption scandal rocked U.S. ally Turkey, threatening the government of Prime Minister Erdogan.
- Serious anti-government protests (bordering on revolutionary) continued in Ukraine's capital, Kiev.
- The European Union's credit rating was downgraded...
- Latvia adopted the euro on January 1st, becoming the 18th member of the Eurozone.
- Twin terrorist attacks hit Volgograd, a Russian city about 1,000 km from Sochi, the site of the 2014 Winter Olympics...
...What does it say about our society when the opinions of a duck hunter in Louisiana dominate our news for more than a week, while major global events go almost entirely unnoticed by the American media?
I got yer retail recovery right here:
As traffic slumps and teen-oriented stores struggle, retailers suffer worst holiday season since 2009
Costco was one of the few bright spots. And I helped!
The Trouble With 'Scientific' Research Today: A Lot That's Published Is Junk
Observational studies have both practical and theoretical limitations; they may be suggestive but they cannot prove cause and effect. There is a critical difference between plausibility and provability, and many such studies are subsequently found to be misleading. For example, in spite of early observational studies that concluded the opposite, it is now clear that “Type A” personality does not cause heart attacks. The original claim could not be replicated in two well-conducted follow up trials. In fact, of about 50 claims found or suggested from observational studies, none replicated when tested in randomized clinical trials.
Europe’s Supernova Moment
Crisis Management: Europe Eyes Anglo-Saxon Model with Envy
Britain has it better. At least that's how it seems. The country's financial situation is improving, even though it was worse off than many euro-zone member states at the beginning of the financial crisis. It was more bloated, its financial sector was in bad shape and the country had one of the largest real estate bubbles and highest rates of private debt in the world.
But while large areas of the euro zone continue to be plagued by mass unemployment and stagnation, the United Kingdom now appears to be on the road to health. The year 2014 could even see economic growth of 3 percent. Furthermore, investment is growing and the real estate sector is making progress.
In 2008, the situation in the UK wasn't all that much different than that in Spain. Yet while the British are slowly leaving the crisis behind, the Spanish would be ecstatic if they could avoid further economic contraction this year.
What is the fundamental difference between the two countries? Spain has the euro. Britain has the Bank of England.
Scientists like to think of science as self-correcting. To an alarming degree, it is not
Academic scientists readily acknowledge that they often get things wrong. But they also hold fast to the idea that these errors get corrected over time as other scientists try to take the work further. Evidence that many more dodgy results are published than are subsequently corrected or withdrawn calls that much-vaunted capacity for self-correction into question. There are errors in a lot more of the scientific papers being published, written about and acted on than anyone would normally suppose, or like to think.
Science is fine. Social advocacy is just running out of ways to pervert science. The hard sciences are long gone. The soft sciences are jealous.
Dawg, the hard and soft sciences are overdosing on Liagra due to perverse incentives. Do economists have the biggest codpieces?
Dawg, the hard and soft sciences are overdosing on Liagra due to perverse incentives. Do economists have the biggest codpieces?
well done for that base post. When I first looked at it - yeah I have 2 big fat books on technical analysis. I remember almost a decade ago when I made a cautiously critical comment on 247wallstreet. Crossingwallstreet or some such - mannnn the heat I got - not just from fellow commentators but the fellow himself- like I called his baby ugly or something - and I thought I was pretty tactful.
As a sidenote, the Chartists (1832-1850s ) were of course a working class movement in the UK for voting rights and similar wideranging political reforms using petitions to Parliament, not the barrel of the gun. Some say that its because the Brit ruling class gave in to them somewhat and just enough is why the revolutions of 1848 never happened in the UK.
Last, this technical patterns reminds me of the confusion I face in my latest study - about the "Subaltern study of India" - Foucault, Derrida are right in the mix - with a very very academic medalled lady - paper called.. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCoQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mcgill.ca%2Ffiles%2Fcrclaw-discourse%2FCan_the_subaltern_speak.pdf&ei=dY3PUv_xAcTdoATYnYJo&usg=AFQjCNH0igQGklvRrEVZpEjkptOqzw-dUA&sig2=c5nu-5__fMhVM992WElpWg&bvm=bv.59026428,d.cGU
I ( and the wife - a PhD in biochem )- go.. WTF - Not in the Rush Limbaugh way or the Michael Steyn way, just in the bloody gobsmacked way. Actually I have a lot a feeling and totally agree that the non-elite's history MUST be told - lets get cracking then and start unearthing some oral histories, parsing folk tales then.lets do some empirical work..
But this ? No no I'm not really deriding this. she's got a PadamBushan a pretty high honor and yeah I can follow along what she writes but its all just in the text innit ? Of course the basic premise is.. its only in the text. like its only in the charts I guess.
sk said..."Last, this technical patterns reminds me of the confusion I face in my latest study" -
sk,
Are you G.C.S., the author?
Job growth weak but UE down? That can't be healthy...
EL-ERIAN: Today's Shocking Jobs Report Is Somewhere Between Puzzling And Worrisome
More thoughts from Richard Florida
Everything You Should Know About the Big Miss Jobs Report, by Mike Shedlock
Once again, the stats reveal much weakness.
~Big Miss: Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 74,000. The median forecast of 37 economists was 205,000 jobs according to USA Today.
~The civilian institutional population rose by 178,000 but the labor force declined by 347,000.
~Nonfarm payroll growth is the smallest number since January 2011.
Clearly, this is yet another bad report, with people dropping out of the labor force like mad.
A day late, but not a dollar short...
Between global warming suckers getting entombed in ice while trying to prove the Antarctic ice cap has melted...
...to most of America doing a Frigidaire impression, the entire façade of this bogus leftist power grab is crumbling.
Understand that the climate change meme is simply the latest attempt by leftists to trick society into remaking itself in their image. It was never about science. It was always about power and money.
Is the Economy Doomed?
The title of radio host Thom Hartmann's latest book -- "The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America and What We Can Do to Stop It" -- is something of a misnomer. We can't actually stop this crash, he argues. In fact, the crash was set in motion with the 2006 meltdown; the Obama administration is holding back the rest of the disaster with "baling wire and bubble gum," hoping to make it through the 2016 elections. Sometime in that year we will see bank runs, the dissolution of major banking institutions, massive layoffs, and eventually economic collapse.
Hartmann says we are victims of a historical cycle of economic disasters, delivered at the hands of the "Economic Royalists." Who are these villains whose subversive agenda has all but sealed our economic fate? A term coined by FDR, "Royalists" refers to the forces of plutocracy, perhaps better known as "Loyalists" and "Tories" during the Revolution and "Robber Barons" during the Gilded Age.
Interesting article above, where author states "Hartmann argues that the neoliberal economic ideologies promulgated by Friedman and the "Chicago Boys" were maleficent, intended to eat away at the middle class and benefit the Royalists. In fact, he writes, "free-market reforms ... do not constitute a legitimate economic theory, as they've never worked anywhere they've been tried." "
Curiously, the Keynesian ideals he espouses never worked anywhere they've been tried either; ditto on Communism...
From Stagflationary Mark (I think)
Real Interest on Government Debt per Capita
> 1. When can we expect to break free from the long-term trend channel?
> 2. When can we expect ZIRP to permanently end?
> 3. Of all the things I could worry about in this economy, where should the risk of rising interest rates (and expense) rank on my list?
>
> My answers of "not soon", "not soon", and "low" may differ from yours of course. I'll be much more worried when the majority agrees with my answers. And when do I expect that to happen? Not soon.
I'd have to concur for the most part, though I'd lean from "not soon" towards "never"
Leaked files slam stem-cell therapy
A series of damning documents seen by Nature expose deep concerns over the safety and efficacy of the controversial stem-cell therapy promoted by Italy’s Stamina Foundation. The leaked papers reveal the true nature of the processes involved, long withheld by Stamina’s president, Davide Vannoni. Other disclosures show that the successes claimed by Stamina for its treatments have been over-stated. And, in an unexpected twist, top Italian scientists are dissociating themselves from an influential Miami-based clinician over his apparent support for the foundation.
No, Demographics Are Not The Reason For Labor Force Dropouts
...I compiled and posted a chart showing how labor force dropouts are largely responsible for the declining unemployment rate. Some commentators, however, believe the steep drop in the labor force participation rate to be primarily a function of demographic change: baby boomers are getting older, retiring, and leaving the labor force. In a speech following the release of December’s employment data last Friday, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard endorsed this view, saying the labor force drop appears “driven by demographics rather than being cyclical in nature.”
The data tell a different story. In fact, most evidence suggests that while demographics aren’t completely irrelevant, the American economy is currently facing a jobs crisis, not a demographic one.
3.2 billion? for a thermostat? what am I missing
Gator Fan said...3.2 billion? for a thermostat? what am I missing
Prolly about $3.2 billion, but that's just a guess...
The Court Decision That Made Unions Powerful
Things get incestuous pretty quickly when government employees, who are supposedly public servants, begin exerting their influence on the political process to institutionalize their agenda. To some extent this will always be a concern with public-employee unions. But in authorizing state and local governments to compel union membership, the Supreme Court was only fanning the flames. It should not be surprising that, three decades later, many local governments are on the verge of bankruptcy, having over-committed taxpayer dollars to fund pension programs and other public-employee perks. And now, as state and local leaders contemplate reforms to address these budgetary problems, they face stiff opposition from public-employee unions whose membership has been inflated by compelled-unionization schemes.
Pity the nurbs...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-31/where-americas-wealthiest-suburbanites-live-and-where-they-dont
If you look at the graph for Los Angeles at TJ's link, you can see that almost anyone who can afford it has moved to the West Side. Unfortunately, the urban planners seem to be able to afford it as well. For example, Santa Monica has become almost unlivable unless you never need to leave the house. The LA Times has a recent op-ed piece on the subject:
From Santa Monica, the lament of an 'urban villager'
It's going to get even worse once they finish putting the train in. The so-called "subway to the sea" (which is not a subway nor will it reach the sea) looks to pound the final nail into downtown Santa Monica's coffin.
We considered moving to SM back in 2000. Bummed around the area for a day, then spent 3 hours that evening trying to get out. Can't even imagine what the traffic is like now.
Technical analysis is legit if you stick to a very small set of patterns. In other words, 95.4% of stocks show no discernable pattern. If you stick to the handful that do, you'll fare pretty well. But that is a difficult behavioral problem to solve, because most of us want to sample from the entire buffet.
Not too long ago the local OSH store closed, and now an Albertsons less than a block from my office has closed, too. Both had been around as long as I can remember.
Such a strong economy we have!
Just for kicks:
What Happens To California If Silicon Valley Became A State, In 7 Charts
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