Monday, December 08, 2014

Models All the Way Down

The latest from the climate modeling idiots:

A new study by researchers at the University of Exeter has found early warning signals of a reorganisation of the Atlantic oceans’ circulation which could have a profound impact on the global climate system.
The research, published today in the journal Nature Communications, used a simulation from a highly complex model to analyse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an important component of the Earth’s climate system.

 Need we continue?  
It showed that early warning signals are present up to 250 years before it collapses, suggesting that scientists could monitor the real world overturning circulation for the same signals.

Great.  Let us observe 2 or 3 cycles and make some rough predictions.  

“We don’t know how close we are to a collapse of the circulation, but a real world early warning could help us prevent it, or at least prepare for the consequences” adds co-author Professor Tim Lenton.   
 Well... duh.  
The study is the most realistic simulation of the climate system in which this type of early warning signal has been tested.

 Okay, up until now I've just been snarky but this, this is a crime against humanity.  I am serious.   It is a model.  An untested/untetable model.  This is shouting "FIRE!" in a theater. 
“The best early warning signals in the model world are in places where major efforts are going into monitoring the circulation in the real world – so these efforts could have unexpected added value’ adds Professor Lenton.

Bulshit.  The number of climate measuring locations have been drastically scaled back.  
‘Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model’ by Chris Boulton, Lesley Allison and Timothy Lenton is published today in the journal Nature Communications.
Date: 8 December 2014

Peer reviewed no doubt.  

1 comment:

Thomas Stone said...

The model is fully and VERY firmly coupled to a proposal for a large grant.