Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
NEARLY every economist attempting a forecast these days ends on a foreboding note.
The economy is very robust, they say, and although
some of this vigor will soon disappear, the resulting slowdown will be
mild. But then comes a worrisome postscript: Maybe the slowdown will not
be so mild, after all. As Roger E. Brinner of Data Resources Inc. put
it this week: ''A classic recession, beginning in 12 to 18 months,
remains a serious risk.''
If a recession were to develop, the first sign of it
would probably show up in rising business inventories - a pileup that
would go unnoticed for a while. Before almost every recession since
World War II, unsold merchandise has accumulated in company warehouses.
Inventories, in fact, are rising now, and they might be reaching
excessive levels, according to Walter Joelson, chief economist at the
General Electric Company.
Many other economists disagree. But no one really
knows. Excessive inventories are hard to spot until well after the fact.
This is partly because the Commerce Department gathers monthly
inventory statistics late. The June numbers, for example, will be
announced this Friday - six weeks after June ended - and the August
numbers will not come out until mid-October.
Note that I blocked the date of this NY Times article. First lets see if this is on the right track.