Monday, January 12, 2009
The Enzo of Auto Sales
Jean ValJean asks:
And speaking of predictions to the downside.. how about a thread for predictions of 2009 car/light truck sales?
I call 9.5 Million.
I'm normally not one for hyperbole but I don't think this is even close. 2009 is the year of the used car. First a little background:
2000-2007 New Auto Sales
13,181 13,510 13,639 13,594 13,609 13,551 13,271 13,671
This from the BTS.
The MSM is predicting 10.5m and JVJ is saying 8.5m. I'm saying 7.5m. We all know what's going down and normally I'd like Jean's number but there's a wildcard; deflation. The hit for a new vehicle purchase is bad enough but when residual value is a function of new model yer prices you don't want to take the chance that next years' model will be cheaper. Right now I'm chasing down something like a 2005 Volvo V70 2.5T. $14k is easy but I'm looking for an $11k cherry.
BTW, the Ferrari Enzo pictured above is being repaired by Ferrari. It "belonged" to a fugitive German software crook and crashed on PCH about 15 miles away. I just thought that the idea of autos being half-off was amusing.