Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Bob Lee Knows What Endures

Bob Lee is an architect.  His works aren't steel towers but they are signature and worth consideration.  Here is a listing near the Dawghaus:

4 beds 5 baths 4,910 sqft 
$1,999,000
 
 Welcome to this amazing Bob Lee contemporary, on a sprawling one acre with mosaic tile pool/spa, pool house with bath and loft, and putting green, at The Summit, in Las Posas Estates. The moment you walk through the front doors, your eyes will catch the most exquisite views, from every room, through enormous picture windows. Soaring high ceilings, corian countertops throughout, tasteful contemporary architecture including a 42 foot long sky light, and marble floors, seamlessly guide you through the 5,100 square foot home. Enjoy gorgeous views from the master suite, complete with ample built in cabinetry, his and hers walk in closets, jacuzzi tub, and large walk in shower. More amazing views from the giant great room, featuring a large fireplace with marble all the way to the ceiling. The dining room features incredible views through large picture windows, a built in buffet for entertaining, built in glass cabinetry, and gorgeous glass and marble dining table with eight chairs, specifically designed for the home will be included in the sale. Island kitchen includes built in Sub Zero fridge, Viking double oven, Gaggenau range with deep fryer and grill, walk in pantry, and more of those fabulous views of Camarillo. There is a den/office close to a powder room, and two large guest bedrooms with large ensuite baths down the hall. Large garage has upstairs playroom with closet. 11 flatscreen tv's mounted throughout the home included. Live happily ever after in Camarillo.

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What makes a "Bob Lee" notable?  Low density, high quality, single story, accessible.  Jim the Raeltor can tell you about the premium those often command.   Click on the address for more.  Note also; built in 1987.  First resale 1997.  This is only the second resale in 31 years. 

136 comments:

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Lovely

Way too big.
If you are near there you are rich
Fire danger?

dilbert dogbert said...

The old Palo Alto place zillows at 4mil. 2000 sqft, 3beds and 2baths. mid 1950's and it can be flooded.
The best deals are in SoCal!!!

Rob Dawg said...

Liz, “big” is different here. This is low maintenance low energy easy living on one level near everything needed. Ignore the square feet when you understand there is no winter, heating season, cooling season and no hurricanes etc.

Rob Dawg said...

If you are near there you are rich

It's a cute meme but I'm not even doing a good job of holding onto middle class. Yes, I'm off to New England in ten days but cheap air and free rooms is not high living.

Jim the Realtor said...

Individually these features command a premium but collectively they offer an opportunity for the uber-rich to downsize comfortably. If you're moving down from a 10,000+ sq. ft. house, you need a something this big just for you stuff, and your ego. Those folks can't fathom a 2,000sf tract house

Elizabeth Merceret said...

No dust or dirt? No urge to fill up the empty space with stuff?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I can't fathom them! 2600 sq ft is too much for us. We are uber average and I like it that way.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Good nite.

LBD said...

The desire to down size all depends on how much you have had. 2200 sq ft was fine for us but we kind of wish we had more now with a grand kid on the way. Now with the RV pad finished we have a guest house if need be.

Firemane said...

Space "requirements" are mostly relative to what we grow up and grow accustomed to.

I grew up mostly in my Grandparents 1,000 sq ft. cottage.
(Note: 1 bath - for 3 adults and 2 kids)

But, LOTS of space outside, and in a town of < 500 people, riding your bike to see everyone you knew was easy.

So, the series of 2-br 1,000 sq ft. college apartments with 2-1/2 baths I lived in were in some ways a step up. So, my current 1,200 sf townhouse is more than I actually need (since the divorce).

The 2,600 sf house my ex-girlfriend complained endlessly about was numerically a massive step up ... both in size and price, but beyond having the space for a hot tub (she almost never used), it actually didn't PROVIDE extra value for living (and based on her complaints), actually lowered her overall happiness.

But, she had PREVIOUSLY lived in even bigger places. So, she was holding onto "stuff" she didn't really want or need, but was unwilling or not yet ready to let go of.

The national psyche regarding housing is nuts. California is just more so.

Rubygoat said...

I've lived the last decade in my 1100 sf townhome 3 bed/1.5 bath. I'd like a little more bathroom counter and a second shower and my wife would like a bigger kitchen, but going to 2600 sf would be a waste for sure.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

We sorta use the space---2 offices and a guest bedroom. I sporadically try to get rid of things, and the hub buys more. He has plenty of money, so why not, but still.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

I also have a big shed approx 400 sq ft and a 120 sq ft pool house/garden shed. Last house was about 4000 sq ft. Big house was great with the whole family and the small one fits our needs better now. Last house for the two of us.

Rob Dawg said...

The garden shed of spousal exile is 28x12 with 12x12 loft, marble counters and 70 amp service. The view wall is large enough to bring in a car for restoration.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Rich!!!!! MARBLE in a shed!!

LBD said...

Shed and marble don’t seem to go together. Sounds like you need a wine and cheese cooler to go with it. 😎

Rob Dawg said...

I am appalled! I do not have a "cheese cooler!" Okay, a wine cooler but I got it from the Goodwill store. ;)

LBD said...

I always go shopping at Goodwill here in lake Havasu. They have cool stuff, bought a couple of water chairs for the lake, shirts and a bike helmet. Extravagantly cheap! Lol!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

😅😍😅😍😅😘ðŸĪ”ðŸĪ‘😜ðŸĪŠðŸ˜·

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Unemployment rate down to 3.8%. Woo hoooo!

Rubygoat said...

I wonder how much it actually cost Amazon to go to $15/hr.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Black unemployment down to 5.8%. Woo hoo too. So, what's full employment anyone? 3.4% and 5.2% good enough?

Firemane said...

It's a good report, but a little weird. Florence probably had some impact, though they said they got 'normal' response rates from all areas.

The weird part is that while U3 dropped to 3.7 (lowest since 1969), U6 ticked up a tenth to 7.5.

Per the Household survey:

Total employed: +420k
Total unemployed: -270k
Labor force: +150k
(all the above solidly positive - and no change in participation rate)

PT for economic reasons: +263k
PT for non-econ reasons: -317

So, the total number of PT employees actually dropped a smidge. But, the classification slosh was toward "forced" PT.

Also, the "marginally attached", (which is NOT seasonally adjusted), jumped by 134k, even though "discouraged" workers dropped by 51k.

Ironically, yesterday I was wondering what potential 'odd' effects one might see as full employment is reached. One of my potentials was what I call skill mis-match underemployment.

Industry A: Needs employees with X skills, but none are available.
Industry B: Lays off people with Y skills, but those skills not needed elsewhere (at least locally).

Result: These unemployed workers must settle for PT work - as they search for employers needing their skill sets and/or attempt to train in needed skills.

Mind you, this kind of thing happens all the time. It's part of the normal pattern of business expansion and failure. But, outside of full employment, this kind of data would likely be dwarfed by larger trends. It only becomes "visible" when you start having larger chunks of "want to expand" businesses unable to find the skills they are seeking.

We only have one historical "full employment" recession since the creation of U6 (2000/2001). The data is inconclusive. U6 was clearly more volatile than U3 just before the employment turn-around, but there's no clear pattern of U6 trending up before U3 turned.

LBD said...

Good morning!

Doesn’t Amazon hire a lot through temp agencies? I don’t think Amazon controls those wages.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

3.3 and 5.%?

3.2 and 4.8?

Firemane said...

Temps are paid "by" the temp agency.

The typical mark-up for temps is 40% (ish).

So, if a temp is getting $10 and hour, the company is paying the temp agency $14 an hour. The difference here is the company using the temp isn't paying any benefits.

While employers can "try" to extend "temp-time" to avoid benefits costs, in a labor market this tight, that's a losing proposition, unless your temp costs (and to-employee pay rates), are sky high, (enough that the worker can pay their own 'benefits' (insurance, time off), while still feeling like they're ahead of the game.

So, raising Amazon wages to $15/hr will not necessarily impact what they are paying for temps at all. Because, while temps, they are NOT classified as Amazon employees, and Amazon was likely already paying more than $15 an hour for their labor, (even if 40% of what they were paying was going to someone else).

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Seems to me a lot is logical. More later.

LBD said...

Thanks, I heard that Amazon has a lot of temps and there has to be real benefits to the companies for this action. So now I wonder how many and the real affect of the $15 an hr. Headlines, headline and facts. What a game we play. 😏

Elizabeth Merceret said...

First, partly unemployed u6ers ARE employed and count as employed. Therefore .1 of new employees went from unemployed to partly employed. Maybe the non economics went down because their hubs are making so much money they don't have to work at all. Maybe they didn't want to work full time, mlm but jumped to full time because someone offered to ed a salary increase they couldn't refuse

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Marginally attached increased, because they aren't so discouraged anymore, so there are fewer discouraged. That mismatch can be lowered by training, which companies didn't have to do because there were a lot of trained workers who couldn't get jobs.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sounds like Amazon will hire them as soon as possible, with benefits to all but the temp agencies.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Above.

Also maybe wages not going up so much these are new employees with less experience so being paid less

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Tell me where I'm wrong.

Firemane said...

Based on the article I just read regarding Amazon.

"Current" $15/hr workers will get a $1 an hour bump.

BUT - Amazon is ending a previous bonus program that paid bonuses based on attendance and productivity. (this will be a net loss to SOME of their best employees). But, no estimates on how many.

They also ditched a company stock give-away to 'loyal' (3+ year) workers. Amazon says they "will be" replacing it with an employee stock purchase plan - but details are yet to come.

Given that current Amazon stock price is $2,000 a share, savings in ditching that program could be humongous.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

How many share did they get?

Firemane said...

Liz,

I don't think you're wrong about anything.

It's actually not unusual for U6 to rise at the same time U3 falls. It's just unusual for that to happen when the actual total # of PT employees DROPS.

I've noticed an "inch-worm" pattern previously, where a spike in PTers will make the U3 drop and U6 climb (bunch of unemployed get hired PT), and then in the next month or two, there is a drop in U6 but no move in the U3 (conversion of PT to FT). That's a pretty normal pattern - easy to see - and logically makes sense.

It's just odd for the job market to be this good AND to see this kind of spike specifically in "PT for Economic Reasons". Based on the trend line, it's highly likely this is just random sample noise and vanishes next month.

Since 2012, PTER had dropped from 8.3 million to 4.3 million in August, so the nearly 300k jump is a little weird (especially since the total was down 800k since February).

There's still room to fall further. The series bottomed at 3.1M at the end of the Clinton boom.

My Full Employment Contingent Economic Slowdown (FECES) theory is based on the concept that FE is a "critical state", so therefore almost any economic "trigger" can "cause" a recession. But, there still needs to be that trigger. So far, it doesn't look like the TTS (Trump Trade Spat) or WAI (War Against Immigrants) are having any such impact.

So, the only "inducing" event I can see that might act as a trigger is the election of a Democratic House in November. There was a very obvious surge in business optimism after Trump was elected, and long before he actually DID anything. There was another surge after the tax bill passed. The same people who reacted optimistically in getting Trump instead of Hillary "might" decide the golden days are over and it's time to cash out if the Dems take the House, and before they do anything, (I've never believed the Senate was really in play, just fyi).

What I believe, that goes counter to economists views, is that recessions are primarily psychological in nature, NOT mathematical. That's one of the reasons the mathematicians (i.e. economists), are so bad at predicting them.

LBD said...

So past the head lines a few may benefit and Amazon gets good PR after being slammed. Most employees dump free stock as soon as they can. My expeiance with profit sharing as an employer only one ever showed interest in it and the rest cashed it out quickly. Compulsive spenders do that, so I doubt many hourly people will by stock. Look how many have not saved anything for retirement? Smoke and mirrors. lMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I think I agree, maybe a quarter math
I was studying CR'S Chart today. And there are zigs and Zags that go higher and lower but absolutely none that either have wide bottoms or wide tops. Just jigs and jags. So we should all hope like mad that the rate should continue to drop slowly to keep the party going, because it won't hesitate just ride back up again

Elizabeth Merceret said...

If you spend it, no one will steal it

Firemane said...

LBD,

There's stories from the early Sam Walton days of WalMart where company stock giveaways created some WalMart millionaires, (talking truck drivers and cashiers here). But, that program is long dead.

The cashing out of single shares quickly (if ALLOWED), actually makes some sense. My Mom worked for Carolina Telephone (swallowed by Sprint), and got some early stock giveaways AND took advantage of a couple employee buy options. The problem is - the program DID NOT ALLOW you to sell that stock at will. (each program had different strings).

In any case, after my Mom retired, when she was finally eligible to sell it all, it became a paperwork nightmare. Over the 30 years from when she began until she sold, there were multiple splits - multiple corporate reformations (CT&T became United Telecom became Sprint became Embarq became CenturyLink).

Basically, she needed to compute capital gains on practically each individual stock share separately.

In every way possible, the system is set up to aid the rich and bilk the poor - even those "trying" to act responsibly.

It may be mostly smoke and mirrors, but I support efforts to raise starting wages, because starting wages have lost SO MUCH ground to inflation over the past 50 years it's tragic. In 1957 a pair of minimum wage workers pulled down 80% of median household income. (So, Laverne and Shirley could actually have a small apartment, and afford a car, food and clothes). Today it's closer to 50%.

Rubygoat said...

Ask Enron employees about the wisdom of keeping their company stock.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Haha

LBD said...

Anytime you let others handle your money it is at risk. The lazy undisciplined will get screwed, they don’t need any help. Makes it easy for thinking people to excel, even with out an education. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I don't think they had a choice.

LBD said...

Choice is not to work there. No choice is just an excuse. ;)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Good Morning, or middle of the night, as may be.

Thomas Stone said...

Good morning Liz, it's a peaceful morning here in Paradise!
It looks like we'll be getting a vicious alcoholic perjurer appointed to SCOTUS and Typhus has reached epidemic proportions in LA County according to news reports.
As soon as I finish my coffee I'll be walking down to the river to watch the sun rise.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Typhus? Typhus? Thought that had gone away a long time ago.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

After I finish lunch, I'm going to go hide in the closet again.ðŸ™„ðŸ˜ąðŸ˜ĄðŸĪĒ

LBD said...

On the road again!

Better then a dope smoking crack head we just had for a President !

dilbert dogbert said...

LBD doesn't like president Bush!!!!!

Thomas Stone said...

Liz, Bush 2 was a drunk who preferred his Cocaine in powder form, like all decent people do.
Obama is a disgusting human being,but his drug of choice has always been power.
He may have had a toot or two and probably smoked a joint on occasion but he never had the kind of political cover Bush 2 did.
Shrub's daddy was head of the CIA and then Prez, his grandpappy Prescott got caught playing footsie with the Nazi's after the USA was at war with Germany and got away with a minor wrist slap.
The Shrub got away with behaviour that would have put an ordinary American in Prison for a long, long time.
And it's Bi Partisan, HRC's violations of the espionage act, Jim Clapper's perjury about spying, Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch's clever plan to sell thousands of Guns to the Cartels...Oh and Bush Sr's involvement along with Ollie North in the illegal Gun and Coke trade that's called Iran Contra.
The list is a long one.
"Dark Alliance" by the late Gary Webb is well worth a read.

LBD said...

They really make Kavaugh look pretty clean. :)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sounds like a parliamentary monarchy might be ok.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I was ignoring politics at that time. Maybe I should go back to ignoring it.

TJandTheBear said...

Hard to ignore until after the mid-terms, what with all the annoying commercials.

That said, all the histrionics will fade and most people's lives won't change much, if at all. That is, until the bottom drops out of the economy.

You can blame all the politicians for THAT when it comes since *both* parties have sold us down that river.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Repubs were all for balancing until it was a Repub who wanted to pay off the opulent,.not even the lower middle class, who would spend that money
And certain not the.poor, who are all unworthy, every single day one of them, even the ones who are poor, because they are sick.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Agreed, except it drops just when everyone says its permanently up, which they aren't, no ordinary people are talking about stocks at all, or even interest rates. So I still give it a year and a half. Which I have been doing for over a year and a half.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I wish my were here to give us his take.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

MP. Damned spellcheck.

TJandTheBear said...

Neither Reps nor Dems give a damn about the poor because they're not campaign contributors, it's just Reps don't virtue-signal the way Dems do. Both parties are only interested in representing their biggest donors, and neither have shown any fiscal restraint whatsoever.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Alas, yes.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

What a drive yesterday, wind rain and snow! How would have thought this time of year?

Red mob vs blue mob have both sold out a long time ago. IMO.

LBD said...

I guess then next shoe to fall might be Ginsberg. The libs will absolutely loose it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I would.

TJandTheBear said...

What options will the left have when Trump nominates a woman?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

When? Hahahahaha. Thoughts of hell freezing over flit thru my mind.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yep.

Rubygoat said...

Sarah Palin to replace RBG....

LBD said...

LOL! Now your stirring the pot! ��

TJandTheBear said...

More like Amy Coney Barrett.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Who is that?

Firemane said...

Friend posted yesterday that Nikki Haley, Batwoman and Hooters were all three trending in the top 10 on twitter.

Given the rampant speculation on why Haley stepped down from the UN, I could buy that she's auditioning for Batwoman and/or she's planning to open a "breastaurant".

LBD said...

Good morning!

Back in CO for the day and it is in the 30f and damp.

Media wants a fight story with Haley resigning and are frustrated. The fake news will twist! LOL!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

😀😁😃😆ðŸĪĐ☺

Elizabeth Merceret said...

She quit because she's a woman and therefore a quitter.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Every story I've seen is the polar opposite of what you suggest.

They specifically mention that there is no known animus between Trump and Haley. They admit that it is unclear as to why she has chosen to resign at this time, and her specific comments have been very vague.

Honestly, I'd say if anyone is twisting things, it is you.

Mind you - I gave up watching the "opinion networks" some time ago. But the "news stories" are pretty much ... "well, this was a surprise."

Me? I was just trying to make a joke.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I wuz making a joke too.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The velocity of money seems very very slow.

Rubygoat said...

I was making a joke too, but one with a point. There are plenty of women T could nominate that would happily overturn Roe v Wade.

LBD said...

I was the first to make the joke and being on vacation with no cable news which is nice. I have to say I am not informed to the details. Main thing is not to take me to seriously. ��

Snow flurries in Denver and cold!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

It's raining on the panhandle.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Did one of the HCNers live in Panama city?

Anonymous said...

Comrade Kristina lives in Panama City.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Is she ok?

Firemane said...

Michael's cone of uncertainty is centered on Raleigh.
But, he'll just be a Depression by the time he arrives.

Fast mover. Supposed to move in this evening and be gone by Friday morning.

They closed most of the school systems in NC today, though I definitely get the feeling this is mostly about concern regarding high winds between 3-5pm.


Firemane said...

LBD,

So, if I'm not supposed to take you too seriously - does that include not taking your remark to not take you too seriously ... umm too seriously?

LBD said...

Seriously!

Firemane said...

Getting major rain from Michael at the moment.
Wind is gusty, but nothing to worry about.
Based on looking at the radar loop, the worst will be beyond us in another hour, and the trailing edge in maybe 6 hours.

At the rate this thing is moving up I-85, it's a wonder the GA State Troopers didn't pull it over and cite it for speeding.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Don't suggest it.

Dow down another 408. Buy the dip.???

Firemane said...

In October?

I mean - yeah, it's probably a simple correction.
And yeah, there's no real signs of impending recession.
Only thing I feel comfortable investing in at the moment is flotation devices.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Now down 545.91. Plus yesterday.

Firemane said...

Needs to double that dip to actually become a correction.

I only point this out because I like the way the phrase "double that dip" sounds.

LBD said...

Back home!

The worst driver award again goes to Kalifornia! Really had to look and see if this idiot left paint on the motor home at 70+ MPH and cut me off bad. Honorable mentiontion to Kalirado!

What? the stock market popped it's bubble? May your new lows be higher.

In old folks world we get a 2.8% pay raise! Woopee! Now hopefully Mediscare doeasn't eat it all up. LOL!

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz: CK got hammered but is safe. Trees down. One broke a window and I guess let the wind and rain in messing up the house. Haven't heard any new news.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

ThAnks a lot. Sounds like only modestly terrible. Tell her good luck.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Tell her if she sees mold, destroy it right away.

LBD said...

Good Evening!

Saw some pics of the damage at Mexico City. Looked like the aftermath of a nuke bomb blast. Sad people stayed trying to ride it out.

Wow that stuff they put on the roads in Kalirado doesn't want to wash off. Lots of work even with a pressure washer.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Salt?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I try to feel sorry for them, but they were warned and warned and warned, even by Florence, no walk in the park.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I do hope at least the first 3 adjacent rows mlm of housing are not allowed to be built and be replaced by a dune.line with appropriated bbn plantings.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Florida, parts of it anyway, do have a dune line with salt resistant plants, and you can't mow down mangroves. When this doesn't work, we do beach replentishment, build up the dunes again. This is probably ultimately futile,but will keep mother nature at bay for a few years. People don't want to pay, but it does help tourism.

LBD said...

Mag chloride is what they used to use either they have changed it or the fire hose the stuff on. Anyway what a mess.

Maybe the answer is all cement fortress will work or cheap tin box trailers and just replace them. I would do the trailer thing if I lived down there.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Cheap tin trailers/shacks.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The flood insurance thing is evil. You get one payoff and that's it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Or, that's the way it should be.

LBD said...

Motor homes would make great vacation homes and if needed evacuate before the storm. Just spent six weeks in ours and didn't miss the house one bit, I could have really kept going. I am finding more full time RV's all the time due to RE cost.

Insurance companies could cap pay outs or you take your lumps and pay high premiums for the exposure.

Definitely more trucks on the road, so people are buying stuff. Some truck stops are taking reservations and not actively pursuing the RV biz. IMO. My MH towing my old pick up can't negotiate most truck stop parking any way. My old truck is officially 20 years old! Now a classic! LOL!

TJandTheBear said...

Rented a 36 footer Class A for a cross-country excursion, and learned a few things:
1) RVs are meant for traveling freeways/highways in between extended stays at RV parks but not much else. Driving a "bus" is NOT fun anywhere else, and fuel costs are prohibitive for constant travel.
2) Even the biggest RVs can't go very long without hookups (power/water/waste) so you're pretty tied to those parks anyway.
3) RV parks can be in beautiful areas, but seldom are they close to anything. Got to have a towed vehicle to do anything other than hang out.

That said, a great option for those that are retired and want to casually and inexpensively explore the country. The best trips don't involve aircraft.

p.s.: Are preferred method is SUV. Us up front, dog in back, luggage on top, staying in pet-friendly accommodations.

TJandTheBear said...

BTW, opinions on market turmoil? Is THIS the top?

LBD said...

RV's are varied just like homes. A class A could be a weekend gas powered up to full blown bus with up to 15 liter diesels. If you can afford the latter then fuel cost are not even a problem. The Prevost bus conversions now start at $1.6M. Mine new now would be $7-800K and has pretty much all the same mechanicals as they do. The rich dump the old for pennies on the dollar. I paid $78K 5 years ago and the original sticker 2001 was $375K. They also drive like sitting in your living room and you don't get beat to death like an old Winnebago. Hugh difference and towing a car is not bad at all, save tons on car rental. I am a plug in kind of person but we do dry camp at casinos over night. If we metered our water use we could do 6-8 days. Cost average fuel and time parked on a trip, say 2 weeks at a time. RV parks cost a third of a reasonable hotel and you don't have to eat out either. better for your health. No major cost yet just tires and misc stuff. Playing a game and hope nothing big goes boom.

The Market? It has been fueled by hot money for a long time and this will be a short correction. Tesla failure could shock the world out of the tech fantasy. I am horrible at stocks.

Whiskey said...

Glad to hear she's OK, but if she runs into trouble and needs help, I'd like to help.

Anonymous said...

Dunno about the top, but we probably haven't seen it for this cycle. The remainder of October should continue to be exciting.

LBD said...

A Cold Good Morning from the Flatland!

Sears nose dive continues.

Firemane said...

The current market jitters could become the self-fulfilling prophecy.

Get a 'normal' correction (lose another 1,500 points of so), then the Dems take the House. The combination makes business owners far more pessimistic about the future, so they get cautious about expansion, and before you know it - recession - which creates an actual bear market.

That's worst-case scenario, of course. But, not impossible.

The one-two punch of Florence and Michael is going to have varying impacts on the economy of the South. Short term losses, obviously. But, those get mitigated with insurance and FEMA spending (but more recent studies indicate it ends up being a net loss - as opposed to some older studies that suggested there was a net positive impact as a result of infrastructure replacement, etc).


Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sears hit the concrete at the bottom of the pool with the top of its head.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I just can't see those houses on Mexico Beach being rebuilt. Some still look like houses from the outside, but are really totalled. And the roads!!!

Firemane said...

SEARS lost its way late '70s, early '80s.
The fact it survived 40 years more is a testament to the advantage of size.

SEARS was built on a foundation of CONVENIENCE. It was the first and best "convenient store" ever built.

The power malls were the last positive step in trying to be convenient to customers. About the time they finished the SEARS tower they stopped even pretending to serve customers and started serving share holders.

If they hadn't so utterly lost track of how they got big, they SHOULD have become the first Amazon. They had a massive installed base of customers (thanks to the SEARS Credit Card and Catalog), and they had the kind of capital where they could've spent enough on IT infrastructure to serve millions from day one - instead of needing to start small and scale up steadily as the unknown Amazon did.

In 1993, when they killed the catalog, they could've easily used their CC mailings and data to prime people to visit their website, or e-mailed pre-filled in catalog forms (all that's missing is whatever new thing you want to order), based on previous buying patterns.

There were a million ways they could've tapped their installed base and tried to make it EASIER for their customers to buy more stuff.

Instead, they killed their catalog stores - killed the catalog - and then attempted to make themselves ... as snooty as possible.

I suspect WalMart is running mostly on the momentum from Sam, but they at least haven't lost sight of the concept that they are a discount store (yet). Though, thus far, most of the experiments launched by his kids have been failures.

LBD said...

Takes a generation to make it but it doesn't take a generation to loose it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I hate Walmart, but that's just me. The hub drags me there from time to time, to buy some sort of small appliance, and a box of milk, if I happened to need milk

LBD said...

Walmart is popular or they wouldn't be so big, just like Sears was. Amazon the same and now moving in to brick and mortar. I ordered 10 gallons of oil Amazon Prime so no delivery charge, right to my door 10 FT away from my RV. Pay county tax and not city if I bought it in town at Walmart. Did I mention I don't like the city Kleptocracy? anything to beat them out of a buck.

Thomas Stone said...

Isn't it time for Dawg's biweekly new post?

LBD said...

Dawg on vacation again?

T won one of the Stormy Daniels cases and was awarded attorney fees. LOL!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Job Fair, Orlando. Long lines everywhere but Walmart's kiosk. I guess few want to work there. A bit more in the way of money is headed the worker's way. The unemployment rate is 3.4%. I guess that's the point at which trickle down begins to work noticeably.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dawg, where are yoooo?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

It almost never gets that low, which is why trickle down basically doesn't work. I redefine full employment the point after the point where trickle down begins to work, hence on Orlando 3.3%.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Walmart has removed the job kiosk from the stores and use online employment applications. They pay well especially if you want to work which many don't. Part of trickle down employment that works. I bet minimum work output can be measured better then ever before.

If trickle down does not work what will?

Warren just shot herself in the foot. LOL! So would it be a requirement for those who apply for minority consideration to produce a DNA with 51% of the race claimed?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

If I had such an ancestor, I'd tell people.
If it doesn't trickle down, it goes to the rich. Duh.

LBD said...

No it goes to the better worker. If you can't carry your own weight then you are a liability to the business and not an asset. You want redistribution of wealth and not reward for effort. That is why welfare is out of control.

Warrens amount of Indian blood has to be in the margin of error, seriously a false claim. IMO.

Firemane said...

Welfare is not "out of control". We spend less on welfare today (as a % of GDP) than we did under Reagan.

But, your notion of reward for effort/production is a real world EXCEPTION. The reality is that about 80% of pay is pre-determined by general job classifications and seniority. And bonuses and increases in the real world tend to be as much or more political than production-related.

I've worked numerous jobs in different industries, and the common thread among them all was, in the end, if your boss "likes" you, you get bigger raises than if he doesn't. Mind you, in each case, there was a complex, supposedly objective system put in place ostensibly designed to reward performance. In every case, the manager would at some point say "my hand's are tied" when explaining why he couldn't give more than a 3% increase.

The steady migration of jobs in America are into larger and larger and larger corporate entities - where the structure of rewards for the employees are set at the top - a thousand steps away from those on the bottom - and typically the only ones who really have a shot at bonuses are the management types in control of the data.

Yeah, there are exceptions. Like the thousands of bonus-driven finance people at Wells Fargo, who got rewarded for creating fictitious accounts. Or the thousands of loan approval officers who raked in millions rubber stamping NINJA loans during the housing bubble.

LBD said...

Banksters just out run fraud till caught, plain and simple. We wonder why jobs leave the country. Data doesn't not reflect the failure of welfare. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

This is why minimum wage is a good thing

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Increasing it, that is

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dow is way up. Some think it's going up from here, some down. Gosh, can I get someone to pay me for saying that.

Firemane said...

HEADLINE:

Dow falls - more pessimists traded today.

HEADLINE:

Dow climbs - more optimists traded today.

In other numerical news: New record job openings (7.1 Million) - an all-time high, (series began Dec. of 2000) Total unemployed fell to 5.9 million, just fyi.


Rubygoat said...

There's never been a better time to need a job!

LBD said...

If it took 4 weeks to have slow inefficient workers to put your roof on would you be OK with paying them straight time? It took 1 day to strip and reroof one of my ranch houses with a 1 1/2 car detached garage. I am sure the workers got paid by the squares. People who work by the hour are worth less. IMO.