Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Bob Lee Knows What Endures

Bob Lee is an architect.  His works aren't steel towers but they are signature and worth consideration.  Here is a listing near the Dawghaus:

4 beds 5 baths 4,910 sqft 
$1,999,000
 
 Welcome to this amazing Bob Lee contemporary, on a sprawling one acre with mosaic tile pool/spa, pool house with bath and loft, and putting green, at The Summit, in Las Posas Estates. The moment you walk through the front doors, your eyes will catch the most exquisite views, from every room, through enormous picture windows. Soaring high ceilings, corian countertops throughout, tasteful contemporary architecture including a 42 foot long sky light, and marble floors, seamlessly guide you through the 5,100 square foot home. Enjoy gorgeous views from the master suite, complete with ample built in cabinetry, his and hers walk in closets, jacuzzi tub, and large walk in shower. More amazing views from the giant great room, featuring a large fireplace with marble all the way to the ceiling. The dining room features incredible views through large picture windows, a built in buffet for entertaining, built in glass cabinetry, and gorgeous glass and marble dining table with eight chairs, specifically designed for the home will be included in the sale. Island kitchen includes built in Sub Zero fridge, Viking double oven, Gaggenau range with deep fryer and grill, walk in pantry, and more of those fabulous views of Camarillo. There is a den/office close to a powder room, and two large guest bedrooms with large ensuite baths down the hall. Large garage has upstairs playroom with closet. 11 flatscreen tv's mounted throughout the home included. Live happily ever after in Camarillo.

-----

What makes a "Bob Lee" notable?  Low density, high quality, single story, accessible.  Jim the Raeltor can tell you about the premium those often command.   Click on the address for more.  Note also; built in 1987.  First resale 1997.  This is only the second resale in 31 years. 

216 comments:

1 – 200 of 216   Newer›   Newest»
Elizabeth Merceret said...

Lovely

Way too big.
If you are near there you are rich
Fire danger?

dilbert dogbert said...

The old Palo Alto place zillows at 4mil. 2000 sqft, 3beds and 2baths. mid 1950's and it can be flooded.
The best deals are in SoCal!!!

Rob Dawg said...

Liz, “big” is different here. This is low maintenance low energy easy living on one level near everything needed. Ignore the square feet when you understand there is no winter, heating season, cooling season and no hurricanes etc.

Rob Dawg said...

If you are near there you are rich

It's a cute meme but I'm not even doing a good job of holding onto middle class. Yes, I'm off to New England in ten days but cheap air and free rooms is not high living.

Jim the Realtor said...

Individually these features command a premium but collectively they offer an opportunity for the uber-rich to downsize comfortably. If you're moving down from a 10,000+ sq. ft. house, you need a something this big just for you stuff, and your ego. Those folks can't fathom a 2,000sf tract house

Elizabeth Merceret said...

No dust or dirt? No urge to fill up the empty space with stuff?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I can't fathom them! 2600 sq ft is too much for us. We are uber average and I like it that way.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Good nite.

LBD said...

The desire to down size all depends on how much you have had. 2200 sq ft was fine for us but we kind of wish we had more now with a grand kid on the way. Now with the RV pad finished we have a guest house if need be.

Firemane said...

Space "requirements" are mostly relative to what we grow up and grow accustomed to.

I grew up mostly in my Grandparents 1,000 sq ft. cottage.
(Note: 1 bath - for 3 adults and 2 kids)

But, LOTS of space outside, and in a town of < 500 people, riding your bike to see everyone you knew was easy.

So, the series of 2-br 1,000 sq ft. college apartments with 2-1/2 baths I lived in were in some ways a step up. So, my current 1,200 sf townhouse is more than I actually need (since the divorce).

The 2,600 sf house my ex-girlfriend complained endlessly about was numerically a massive step up ... both in size and price, but beyond having the space for a hot tub (she almost never used), it actually didn't PROVIDE extra value for living (and based on her complaints), actually lowered her overall happiness.

But, she had PREVIOUSLY lived in even bigger places. So, she was holding onto "stuff" she didn't really want or need, but was unwilling or not yet ready to let go of.

The national psyche regarding housing is nuts. California is just more so.

Rubygoat said...

I've lived the last decade in my 1100 sf townhome 3 bed/1.5 bath. I'd like a little more bathroom counter and a second shower and my wife would like a bigger kitchen, but going to 2600 sf would be a waste for sure.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

We sorta use the space---2 offices and a guest bedroom. I sporadically try to get rid of things, and the hub buys more. He has plenty of money, so why not, but still.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

I also have a big shed approx 400 sq ft and a 120 sq ft pool house/garden shed. Last house was about 4000 sq ft. Big house was great with the whole family and the small one fits our needs better now. Last house for the two of us.

Rob Dawg said...

The garden shed of spousal exile is 28x12 with 12x12 loft, marble counters and 70 amp service. The view wall is large enough to bring in a car for restoration.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Rich!!!!! MARBLE in a shed!!

LBD said...

Shed and marble don’t seem to go together. Sounds like you need a wine and cheese cooler to go with it. 😎

Rob Dawg said...

I am appalled! I do not have a "cheese cooler!" Okay, a wine cooler but I got it from the Goodwill store. ;)

LBD said...

I always go shopping at Goodwill here in lake Havasu. They have cool stuff, bought a couple of water chairs for the lake, shirts and a bike helmet. Extravagantly cheap! Lol!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

😅😍😅😍😅😘ðŸĪ”ðŸĪ‘😜ðŸĪŠðŸ˜·

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Unemployment rate down to 3.8%. Woo hoooo!

Rubygoat said...

I wonder how much it actually cost Amazon to go to $15/hr.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Black unemployment down to 5.8%. Woo hoo too. So, what's full employment anyone? 3.4% and 5.2% good enough?

Firemane said...

It's a good report, but a little weird. Florence probably had some impact, though they said they got 'normal' response rates from all areas.

The weird part is that while U3 dropped to 3.7 (lowest since 1969), U6 ticked up a tenth to 7.5.

Per the Household survey:

Total employed: +420k
Total unemployed: -270k
Labor force: +150k
(all the above solidly positive - and no change in participation rate)

PT for economic reasons: +263k
PT for non-econ reasons: -317

So, the total number of PT employees actually dropped a smidge. But, the classification slosh was toward "forced" PT.

Also, the "marginally attached", (which is NOT seasonally adjusted), jumped by 134k, even though "discouraged" workers dropped by 51k.

Ironically, yesterday I was wondering what potential 'odd' effects one might see as full employment is reached. One of my potentials was what I call skill mis-match underemployment.

Industry A: Needs employees with X skills, but none are available.
Industry B: Lays off people with Y skills, but those skills not needed elsewhere (at least locally).

Result: These unemployed workers must settle for PT work - as they search for employers needing their skill sets and/or attempt to train in needed skills.

Mind you, this kind of thing happens all the time. It's part of the normal pattern of business expansion and failure. But, outside of full employment, this kind of data would likely be dwarfed by larger trends. It only becomes "visible" when you start having larger chunks of "want to expand" businesses unable to find the skills they are seeking.

We only have one historical "full employment" recession since the creation of U6 (2000/2001). The data is inconclusive. U6 was clearly more volatile than U3 just before the employment turn-around, but there's no clear pattern of U6 trending up before U3 turned.

LBD said...

Good morning!

Doesn’t Amazon hire a lot through temp agencies? I don’t think Amazon controls those wages.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

3.3 and 5.%?

3.2 and 4.8?

Firemane said...

Temps are paid "by" the temp agency.

The typical mark-up for temps is 40% (ish).

So, if a temp is getting $10 and hour, the company is paying the temp agency $14 an hour. The difference here is the company using the temp isn't paying any benefits.

While employers can "try" to extend "temp-time" to avoid benefits costs, in a labor market this tight, that's a losing proposition, unless your temp costs (and to-employee pay rates), are sky high, (enough that the worker can pay their own 'benefits' (insurance, time off), while still feeling like they're ahead of the game.

So, raising Amazon wages to $15/hr will not necessarily impact what they are paying for temps at all. Because, while temps, they are NOT classified as Amazon employees, and Amazon was likely already paying more than $15 an hour for their labor, (even if 40% of what they were paying was going to someone else).

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Seems to me a lot is logical. More later.

LBD said...

Thanks, I heard that Amazon has a lot of temps and there has to be real benefits to the companies for this action. So now I wonder how many and the real affect of the $15 an hr. Headlines, headline and facts. What a game we play. 😏

Elizabeth Merceret said...

First, partly unemployed u6ers ARE employed and count as employed. Therefore .1 of new employees went from unemployed to partly employed. Maybe the non economics went down because their hubs are making so much money they don't have to work at all. Maybe they didn't want to work full time, mlm but jumped to full time because someone offered to ed a salary increase they couldn't refuse

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Marginally attached increased, because they aren't so discouraged anymore, so there are fewer discouraged. That mismatch can be lowered by training, which companies didn't have to do because there were a lot of trained workers who couldn't get jobs.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sounds like Amazon will hire them as soon as possible, with benefits to all but the temp agencies.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Above.

Also maybe wages not going up so much these are new employees with less experience so being paid less

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Tell me where I'm wrong.

Firemane said...

Based on the article I just read regarding Amazon.

"Current" $15/hr workers will get a $1 an hour bump.

BUT - Amazon is ending a previous bonus program that paid bonuses based on attendance and productivity. (this will be a net loss to SOME of their best employees). But, no estimates on how many.

They also ditched a company stock give-away to 'loyal' (3+ year) workers. Amazon says they "will be" replacing it with an employee stock purchase plan - but details are yet to come.

Given that current Amazon stock price is $2,000 a share, savings in ditching that program could be humongous.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

How many share did they get?

Firemane said...

Liz,

I don't think you're wrong about anything.

It's actually not unusual for U6 to rise at the same time U3 falls. It's just unusual for that to happen when the actual total # of PT employees DROPS.

I've noticed an "inch-worm" pattern previously, where a spike in PTers will make the U3 drop and U6 climb (bunch of unemployed get hired PT), and then in the next month or two, there is a drop in U6 but no move in the U3 (conversion of PT to FT). That's a pretty normal pattern - easy to see - and logically makes sense.

It's just odd for the job market to be this good AND to see this kind of spike specifically in "PT for Economic Reasons". Based on the trend line, it's highly likely this is just random sample noise and vanishes next month.

Since 2012, PTER had dropped from 8.3 million to 4.3 million in August, so the nearly 300k jump is a little weird (especially since the total was down 800k since February).

There's still room to fall further. The series bottomed at 3.1M at the end of the Clinton boom.

My Full Employment Contingent Economic Slowdown (FECES) theory is based on the concept that FE is a "critical state", so therefore almost any economic "trigger" can "cause" a recession. But, there still needs to be that trigger. So far, it doesn't look like the TTS (Trump Trade Spat) or WAI (War Against Immigrants) are having any such impact.

So, the only "inducing" event I can see that might act as a trigger is the election of a Democratic House in November. There was a very obvious surge in business optimism after Trump was elected, and long before he actually DID anything. There was another surge after the tax bill passed. The same people who reacted optimistically in getting Trump instead of Hillary "might" decide the golden days are over and it's time to cash out if the Dems take the House, and before they do anything, (I've never believed the Senate was really in play, just fyi).

What I believe, that goes counter to economists views, is that recessions are primarily psychological in nature, NOT mathematical. That's one of the reasons the mathematicians (i.e. economists), are so bad at predicting them.

LBD said...

So past the head lines a few may benefit and Amazon gets good PR after being slammed. Most employees dump free stock as soon as they can. My expeiance with profit sharing as an employer only one ever showed interest in it and the rest cashed it out quickly. Compulsive spenders do that, so I doubt many hourly people will by stock. Look how many have not saved anything for retirement? Smoke and mirrors. lMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I think I agree, maybe a quarter math
I was studying CR'S Chart today. And there are zigs and Zags that go higher and lower but absolutely none that either have wide bottoms or wide tops. Just jigs and jags. So we should all hope like mad that the rate should continue to drop slowly to keep the party going, because it won't hesitate just ride back up again

Elizabeth Merceret said...

If you spend it, no one will steal it

Firemane said...

LBD,

There's stories from the early Sam Walton days of WalMart where company stock giveaways created some WalMart millionaires, (talking truck drivers and cashiers here). But, that program is long dead.

The cashing out of single shares quickly (if ALLOWED), actually makes some sense. My Mom worked for Carolina Telephone (swallowed by Sprint), and got some early stock giveaways AND took advantage of a couple employee buy options. The problem is - the program DID NOT ALLOW you to sell that stock at will. (each program had different strings).

In any case, after my Mom retired, when she was finally eligible to sell it all, it became a paperwork nightmare. Over the 30 years from when she began until she sold, there were multiple splits - multiple corporate reformations (CT&T became United Telecom became Sprint became Embarq became CenturyLink).

Basically, she needed to compute capital gains on practically each individual stock share separately.

In every way possible, the system is set up to aid the rich and bilk the poor - even those "trying" to act responsibly.

It may be mostly smoke and mirrors, but I support efforts to raise starting wages, because starting wages have lost SO MUCH ground to inflation over the past 50 years it's tragic. In 1957 a pair of minimum wage workers pulled down 80% of median household income. (So, Laverne and Shirley could actually have a small apartment, and afford a car, food and clothes). Today it's closer to 50%.

Rubygoat said...

Ask Enron employees about the wisdom of keeping their company stock.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Haha

LBD said...

Anytime you let others handle your money it is at risk. The lazy undisciplined will get screwed, they don’t need any help. Makes it easy for thinking people to excel, even with out an education. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I don't think they had a choice.

LBD said...

Choice is not to work there. No choice is just an excuse. ;)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Good Morning, or middle of the night, as may be.

Thomas Stone said...

Good morning Liz, it's a peaceful morning here in Paradise!
It looks like we'll be getting a vicious alcoholic perjurer appointed to SCOTUS and Typhus has reached epidemic proportions in LA County according to news reports.
As soon as I finish my coffee I'll be walking down to the river to watch the sun rise.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Typhus? Typhus? Thought that had gone away a long time ago.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

After I finish lunch, I'm going to go hide in the closet again.ðŸ™„ðŸ˜ąðŸ˜ĄðŸĪĒ

LBD said...

On the road again!

Better then a dope smoking crack head we just had for a President !

dilbert dogbert said...

LBD doesn't like president Bush!!!!!

Thomas Stone said...

Liz, Bush 2 was a drunk who preferred his Cocaine in powder form, like all decent people do.
Obama is a disgusting human being,but his drug of choice has always been power.
He may have had a toot or two and probably smoked a joint on occasion but he never had the kind of political cover Bush 2 did.
Shrub's daddy was head of the CIA and then Prez, his grandpappy Prescott got caught playing footsie with the Nazi's after the USA was at war with Germany and got away with a minor wrist slap.
The Shrub got away with behaviour that would have put an ordinary American in Prison for a long, long time.
And it's Bi Partisan, HRC's violations of the espionage act, Jim Clapper's perjury about spying, Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch's clever plan to sell thousands of Guns to the Cartels...Oh and Bush Sr's involvement along with Ollie North in the illegal Gun and Coke trade that's called Iran Contra.
The list is a long one.
"Dark Alliance" by the late Gary Webb is well worth a read.

LBD said...

They really make Kavaugh look pretty clean. :)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sounds like a parliamentary monarchy might be ok.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I was ignoring politics at that time. Maybe I should go back to ignoring it.

TJandTheBear said...

Hard to ignore until after the mid-terms, what with all the annoying commercials.

That said, all the histrionics will fade and most people's lives won't change much, if at all. That is, until the bottom drops out of the economy.

You can blame all the politicians for THAT when it comes since *both* parties have sold us down that river.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Repubs were all for balancing until it was a Repub who wanted to pay off the opulent,.not even the lower middle class, who would spend that money
And certain not the.poor, who are all unworthy, every single day one of them, even the ones who are poor, because they are sick.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Agreed, except it drops just when everyone says its permanently up, which they aren't, no ordinary people are talking about stocks at all, or even interest rates. So I still give it a year and a half. Which I have been doing for over a year and a half.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I wish my were here to give us his take.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

MP. Damned spellcheck.

TJandTheBear said...

Neither Reps nor Dems give a damn about the poor because they're not campaign contributors, it's just Reps don't virtue-signal the way Dems do. Both parties are only interested in representing their biggest donors, and neither have shown any fiscal restraint whatsoever.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Alas, yes.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

What a drive yesterday, wind rain and snow! How would have thought this time of year?

Red mob vs blue mob have both sold out a long time ago. IMO.

LBD said...

I guess then next shoe to fall might be Ginsberg. The libs will absolutely loose it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I would.

TJandTheBear said...

What options will the left have when Trump nominates a woman?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

When? Hahahahaha. Thoughts of hell freezing over flit thru my mind.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yep.

Rubygoat said...

Sarah Palin to replace RBG....

LBD said...

LOL! Now your stirring the pot! ��

TJandTheBear said...

More like Amy Coney Barrett.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Who is that?

Firemane said...

Friend posted yesterday that Nikki Haley, Batwoman and Hooters were all three trending in the top 10 on twitter.

Given the rampant speculation on why Haley stepped down from the UN, I could buy that she's auditioning for Batwoman and/or she's planning to open a "breastaurant".

LBD said...

Good morning!

Back in CO for the day and it is in the 30f and damp.

Media wants a fight story with Haley resigning and are frustrated. The fake news will twist! LOL!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

😀😁😃😆ðŸĪĐ☺

Elizabeth Merceret said...

She quit because she's a woman and therefore a quitter.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Every story I've seen is the polar opposite of what you suggest.

They specifically mention that there is no known animus between Trump and Haley. They admit that it is unclear as to why she has chosen to resign at this time, and her specific comments have been very vague.

Honestly, I'd say if anyone is twisting things, it is you.

Mind you - I gave up watching the "opinion networks" some time ago. But the "news stories" are pretty much ... "well, this was a surprise."

Me? I was just trying to make a joke.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I wuz making a joke too.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The velocity of money seems very very slow.

Rubygoat said...

I was making a joke too, but one with a point. There are plenty of women T could nominate that would happily overturn Roe v Wade.

LBD said...

I was the first to make the joke and being on vacation with no cable news which is nice. I have to say I am not informed to the details. Main thing is not to take me to seriously. ��

Snow flurries in Denver and cold!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

It's raining on the panhandle.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Did one of the HCNers live in Panama city?

Anonymous said...

Comrade Kristina lives in Panama City.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Is she ok?

Firemane said...

Michael's cone of uncertainty is centered on Raleigh.
But, he'll just be a Depression by the time he arrives.

Fast mover. Supposed to move in this evening and be gone by Friday morning.

They closed most of the school systems in NC today, though I definitely get the feeling this is mostly about concern regarding high winds between 3-5pm.


Firemane said...

LBD,

So, if I'm not supposed to take you too seriously - does that include not taking your remark to not take you too seriously ... umm too seriously?

LBD said...

Seriously!

Firemane said...

Getting major rain from Michael at the moment.
Wind is gusty, but nothing to worry about.
Based on looking at the radar loop, the worst will be beyond us in another hour, and the trailing edge in maybe 6 hours.

At the rate this thing is moving up I-85, it's a wonder the GA State Troopers didn't pull it over and cite it for speeding.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Don't suggest it.

Dow down another 408. Buy the dip.???

Firemane said...

In October?

I mean - yeah, it's probably a simple correction.
And yeah, there's no real signs of impending recession.
Only thing I feel comfortable investing in at the moment is flotation devices.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Now down 545.91. Plus yesterday.

Firemane said...

Needs to double that dip to actually become a correction.

I only point this out because I like the way the phrase "double that dip" sounds.

LBD said...

Back home!

The worst driver award again goes to Kalifornia! Really had to look and see if this idiot left paint on the motor home at 70+ MPH and cut me off bad. Honorable mentiontion to Kalirado!

What? the stock market popped it's bubble? May your new lows be higher.

In old folks world we get a 2.8% pay raise! Woopee! Now hopefully Mediscare doeasn't eat it all up. LOL!

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz: CK got hammered but is safe. Trees down. One broke a window and I guess let the wind and rain in messing up the house. Haven't heard any new news.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

ThAnks a lot. Sounds like only modestly terrible. Tell her good luck.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Tell her if she sees mold, destroy it right away.

LBD said...

Good Evening!

Saw some pics of the damage at Mexico City. Looked like the aftermath of a nuke bomb blast. Sad people stayed trying to ride it out.

Wow that stuff they put on the roads in Kalirado doesn't want to wash off. Lots of work even with a pressure washer.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Salt?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I try to feel sorry for them, but they were warned and warned and warned, even by Florence, no walk in the park.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I do hope at least the first 3 adjacent rows mlm of housing are not allowed to be built and be replaced by a dune.line with appropriated bbn plantings.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Florida, parts of it anyway, do have a dune line with salt resistant plants, and you can't mow down mangroves. When this doesn't work, we do beach replentishment, build up the dunes again. This is probably ultimately futile,but will keep mother nature at bay for a few years. People don't want to pay, but it does help tourism.

LBD said...

Mag chloride is what they used to use either they have changed it or the fire hose the stuff on. Anyway what a mess.

Maybe the answer is all cement fortress will work or cheap tin box trailers and just replace them. I would do the trailer thing if I lived down there.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Cheap tin trailers/shacks.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The flood insurance thing is evil. You get one payoff and that's it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Or, that's the way it should be.

LBD said...

Motor homes would make great vacation homes and if needed evacuate before the storm. Just spent six weeks in ours and didn't miss the house one bit, I could have really kept going. I am finding more full time RV's all the time due to RE cost.

Insurance companies could cap pay outs or you take your lumps and pay high premiums for the exposure.

Definitely more trucks on the road, so people are buying stuff. Some truck stops are taking reservations and not actively pursuing the RV biz. IMO. My MH towing my old pick up can't negotiate most truck stop parking any way. My old truck is officially 20 years old! Now a classic! LOL!

TJandTheBear said...

Rented a 36 footer Class A for a cross-country excursion, and learned a few things:
1) RVs are meant for traveling freeways/highways in between extended stays at RV parks but not much else. Driving a "bus" is NOT fun anywhere else, and fuel costs are prohibitive for constant travel.
2) Even the biggest RVs can't go very long without hookups (power/water/waste) so you're pretty tied to those parks anyway.
3) RV parks can be in beautiful areas, but seldom are they close to anything. Got to have a towed vehicle to do anything other than hang out.

That said, a great option for those that are retired and want to casually and inexpensively explore the country. The best trips don't involve aircraft.

p.s.: Are preferred method is SUV. Us up front, dog in back, luggage on top, staying in pet-friendly accommodations.

TJandTheBear said...

BTW, opinions on market turmoil? Is THIS the top?

LBD said...

RV's are varied just like homes. A class A could be a weekend gas powered up to full blown bus with up to 15 liter diesels. If you can afford the latter then fuel cost are not even a problem. The Prevost bus conversions now start at $1.6M. Mine new now would be $7-800K and has pretty much all the same mechanicals as they do. The rich dump the old for pennies on the dollar. I paid $78K 5 years ago and the original sticker 2001 was $375K. They also drive like sitting in your living room and you don't get beat to death like an old Winnebago. Hugh difference and towing a car is not bad at all, save tons on car rental. I am a plug in kind of person but we do dry camp at casinos over night. If we metered our water use we could do 6-8 days. Cost average fuel and time parked on a trip, say 2 weeks at a time. RV parks cost a third of a reasonable hotel and you don't have to eat out either. better for your health. No major cost yet just tires and misc stuff. Playing a game and hope nothing big goes boom.

The Market? It has been fueled by hot money for a long time and this will be a short correction. Tesla failure could shock the world out of the tech fantasy. I am horrible at stocks.

Whiskey said...

Glad to hear she's OK, but if she runs into trouble and needs help, I'd like to help.

Anonymous said...

Dunno about the top, but we probably haven't seen it for this cycle. The remainder of October should continue to be exciting.

LBD said...

A Cold Good Morning from the Flatland!

Sears nose dive continues.

Firemane said...

The current market jitters could become the self-fulfilling prophecy.

Get a 'normal' correction (lose another 1,500 points of so), then the Dems take the House. The combination makes business owners far more pessimistic about the future, so they get cautious about expansion, and before you know it - recession - which creates an actual bear market.

That's worst-case scenario, of course. But, not impossible.

The one-two punch of Florence and Michael is going to have varying impacts on the economy of the South. Short term losses, obviously. But, those get mitigated with insurance and FEMA spending (but more recent studies indicate it ends up being a net loss - as opposed to some older studies that suggested there was a net positive impact as a result of infrastructure replacement, etc).


Elizabeth Merceret said...

Sears hit the concrete at the bottom of the pool with the top of its head.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I just can't see those houses on Mexico Beach being rebuilt. Some still look like houses from the outside, but are really totalled. And the roads!!!

Firemane said...

SEARS lost its way late '70s, early '80s.
The fact it survived 40 years more is a testament to the advantage of size.

SEARS was built on a foundation of CONVENIENCE. It was the first and best "convenient store" ever built.

The power malls were the last positive step in trying to be convenient to customers. About the time they finished the SEARS tower they stopped even pretending to serve customers and started serving share holders.

If they hadn't so utterly lost track of how they got big, they SHOULD have become the first Amazon. They had a massive installed base of customers (thanks to the SEARS Credit Card and Catalog), and they had the kind of capital where they could've spent enough on IT infrastructure to serve millions from day one - instead of needing to start small and scale up steadily as the unknown Amazon did.

In 1993, when they killed the catalog, they could've easily used their CC mailings and data to prime people to visit their website, or e-mailed pre-filled in catalog forms (all that's missing is whatever new thing you want to order), based on previous buying patterns.

There were a million ways they could've tapped their installed base and tried to make it EASIER for their customers to buy more stuff.

Instead, they killed their catalog stores - killed the catalog - and then attempted to make themselves ... as snooty as possible.

I suspect WalMart is running mostly on the momentum from Sam, but they at least haven't lost sight of the concept that they are a discount store (yet). Though, thus far, most of the experiments launched by his kids have been failures.

LBD said...

Takes a generation to make it but it doesn't take a generation to loose it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I hate Walmart, but that's just me. The hub drags me there from time to time, to buy some sort of small appliance, and a box of milk, if I happened to need milk

LBD said...

Walmart is popular or they wouldn't be so big, just like Sears was. Amazon the same and now moving in to brick and mortar. I ordered 10 gallons of oil Amazon Prime so no delivery charge, right to my door 10 FT away from my RV. Pay county tax and not city if I bought it in town at Walmart. Did I mention I don't like the city Kleptocracy? anything to beat them out of a buck.

Thomas Stone said...

Isn't it time for Dawg's biweekly new post?

LBD said...

Dawg on vacation again?

T won one of the Stormy Daniels cases and was awarded attorney fees. LOL!

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Job Fair, Orlando. Long lines everywhere but Walmart's kiosk. I guess few want to work there. A bit more in the way of money is headed the worker's way. The unemployment rate is 3.4%. I guess that's the point at which trickle down begins to work noticeably.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dawg, where are yoooo?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

It almost never gets that low, which is why trickle down basically doesn't work. I redefine full employment the point after the point where trickle down begins to work, hence on Orlando 3.3%.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Walmart has removed the job kiosk from the stores and use online employment applications. They pay well especially if you want to work which many don't. Part of trickle down employment that works. I bet minimum work output can be measured better then ever before.

If trickle down does not work what will?

Warren just shot herself in the foot. LOL! So would it be a requirement for those who apply for minority consideration to produce a DNA with 51% of the race claimed?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

If I had such an ancestor, I'd tell people.
If it doesn't trickle down, it goes to the rich. Duh.

LBD said...

No it goes to the better worker. If you can't carry your own weight then you are a liability to the business and not an asset. You want redistribution of wealth and not reward for effort. That is why welfare is out of control.

Warrens amount of Indian blood has to be in the margin of error, seriously a false claim. IMO.

Firemane said...

Welfare is not "out of control". We spend less on welfare today (as a % of GDP) than we did under Reagan.

But, your notion of reward for effort/production is a real world EXCEPTION. The reality is that about 80% of pay is pre-determined by general job classifications and seniority. And bonuses and increases in the real world tend to be as much or more political than production-related.

I've worked numerous jobs in different industries, and the common thread among them all was, in the end, if your boss "likes" you, you get bigger raises than if he doesn't. Mind you, in each case, there was a complex, supposedly objective system put in place ostensibly designed to reward performance. In every case, the manager would at some point say "my hand's are tied" when explaining why he couldn't give more than a 3% increase.

The steady migration of jobs in America are into larger and larger and larger corporate entities - where the structure of rewards for the employees are set at the top - a thousand steps away from those on the bottom - and typically the only ones who really have a shot at bonuses are the management types in control of the data.

Yeah, there are exceptions. Like the thousands of bonus-driven finance people at Wells Fargo, who got rewarded for creating fictitious accounts. Or the thousands of loan approval officers who raked in millions rubber stamping NINJA loans during the housing bubble.

LBD said...

Banksters just out run fraud till caught, plain and simple. We wonder why jobs leave the country. Data doesn't not reflect the failure of welfare. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

This is why minimum wage is a good thing

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Increasing it, that is

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dow is way up. Some think it's going up from here, some down. Gosh, can I get someone to pay me for saying that.

Firemane said...

HEADLINE:

Dow falls - more pessimists traded today.

HEADLINE:

Dow climbs - more optimists traded today.

In other numerical news: New record job openings (7.1 Million) - an all-time high, (series began Dec. of 2000) Total unemployed fell to 5.9 million, just fyi.


Rubygoat said...

There's never been a better time to need a job!

LBD said...

If it took 4 weeks to have slow inefficient workers to put your roof on would you be OK with paying them straight time? It took 1 day to strip and reroof one of my ranch houses with a 1 1/2 car detached garage. I am sure the workers got paid by the squares. People who work by the hour are worth less. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

But, , ,will it leak?

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Back to fall weather 60'sF today!

No leaks they did two houses for me. Craftsmans and well organized, very good reputation small growing company.

Firemane said...

LBD,

I can appreciate your logic regarding the "conceptual" value of monetary incentive and productivity. It's in lots of books. It's a core principle of conservative thought. And, unfortunately, it's the rare exception in the real world.

My observation is that people are motivated by a thousand different things - (money only one of them). And in every industry I've worked, there were "savants" - people who were MASSIVELY more productive at their expertise than anyone else. And not one single one was "actually" motivated by money.

Even the commission based sales people I worked with - it wasn't true. Motivation is VERY internalized. Some people are naturally motivated to excel, (and eventually tend to benefit from this over time, despite the structural barriers to this).

But, the sales people that were most motivated were ALSO the same ones who attacked their NON-monetary pursuits with passion. Best salesman I ever worked with was an avid golfer and sunk thousands of dollars and huge amounts of time into golf.

Yeah, sure, at the margins money is *a* motivator. But, it's not even remotely the panacea some paint it to be. Especially not at the struggling to make ends meet level.

The psychological reality is that - when raises are only given annually, (the common standard in American business for the last century or more), it is simply impossible to use getting a bigger raise as a motivation for being more productive for 365 days. What happens is - whatever one's NATURAL work ethic happens to be - how Self-motivated one is, determines one's productivity.

Then, at the end of the year, these naturally self-motivated people tend to get bigger raises, (that actually have next to nothing to do with why they were productive).

Of course, there are some people where the all-mighty dollar IS their motivator - and they can be very focused, and often succeed. Then they project their natural inclinations onto everyone else - which is about as logical as assuming everyone else in the world loves okra because you do.

LBD said...

Reading and studying about it and living it are two different things. I was an employer for over 20 years and saw what motivates people. The one thing I learned was most where lazy and had no desire to improve their knowledge or performance. Why? reasons where many. They all where paid on a equal job flat rate. Never had an employee who was just after the almighty dollar. I even took a management class and found their idea of excelling profits would not work. Most employees where like stubborn mules and you ended up with them quitting. I had a fellow business owner experience the same thing after taking a management class and I even warned him he would quit before he would change. Poor performers can exist in big business as they can hide and only be notices buy the division the work in. Peer review comes with friends and politics. Other shop owners found giving raises in flat rate produced less work from top producers. Self motivated are also confident and are job hoppers or try their hand at business themselves. Most fail as they lack business sense that really can't be learned in a book. So those who have poor or no skills, work less earn less and deserve less. IMO.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Gotta hop to get more money. Worst are telling bosses.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yelling.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Sounds like you and I have seen pretty much the same thing.

My conclusion - flat rate vs. bonus compensation has extremely little to do with actual performance - which is dominated by personal reasons, (and is actually, very hard, but not impossible, to alter meaningfully).

I would concur that it is MUCH easier to screw up and create DIS-incentives for quality and production.

Heard of one company who by policy axed their bottom 10% people each year, (but in a situation where that was a VERY subjective determination). The concept was this would mean the overall quality of their workforce would naturally rise. Except, it created such a toxic environment, far more effort got projected at 'convincing' managers you were not in the bottom 10%. They couldn't hold top producers, who left in droves - and they ended up creating a workforce dominated by workers far more skilled in political in-fighting than actual production. Just another version of the Wells Fargo debacle, IMO.

I also agree that the dregs will naturally sink to the bottom.

I just object to the notion that changing the way compensation is determined does (or ever will) have a major impact on individual production.

That said - I can agree that in short-term contract situations, there are trade-offs between going "hourly" vs. "job pricing". But, while that can have benefits IF you already have naturally motivated staff - I know a guy who did contract construction and remodel work - and sold his services by job instead of by hour -- but who was the SLOOOOOOOWEST contractor on the planet. He was beyond meticulous, and his work was great - but he would spend weeks on projects others would finish in days. Eventually, he dropped that career and took a day job and just does the other stuff as hobby or 2nd income. He simply couldn't make a living despite good knowledge and skills, because he couldn't compensate for his base personality.

LBD said...

I have been on both ends from a great supply and could fire one day and hire the next to paying for bodies with a pulse. The big change came in the 90's to adult day care. Those who could became extortionist for more and produce less. So glad I retired when I did and sadly watched my friends battle away, some to the end of their business and take a job. Wonder why I have little time for higher wages just because one breaths.

Anyway how a bout the roller coaster on Wall Street?

Firemane said...

I wonder if the investor class is starting to get the antsy about recession next year.

We're basically at full employment already.
Auto sales peaked more than a year ago.
Hospitality industry is repeating last year's records.
Housing is basically the one big industry that's still providing a tail wind ... but interest rates are rising, and while the numbers are still up year over year for new 1-family homes, we've already peaked in multi-family construction.

There's a point at which if you're trying to look at any "specific" area for growth going forward, we've moved beyond "obvious" choices.

Because the hole in 2009 was so deep, we basically had 8 years of growth in EVERYTHING. So, it didn't much matter where you shoved your money, pretty much everything (except SEARS) was going up.

Of course, the mega corps have spent the last couple of years buying back stocks at a fantastic pace (and with the Trump tax cuts, that accelerated big time this year). But, THAT gravy train can also only run so long before you reach the end of the line.

Even if you aren't thinking recession, where do you put your money, if the whole economy just moves sideways?

LBD said...

CD's are coming up slowly but safe. My funds can take a pretty bad hit and still look good, part of the long game. May buy some more if a really good hit comes along. Rentals still pay and if the RRE market goes down the tubes then rental houses should be full and maybe some good buys coming. Besides that I don't know.

TJandTheBear said...

I'd argue the "full employment" point.

Much of the labor force has shifted from full time to part time and those are making up for it by having multiple part time jobs. Since they're counting the jobs and not the people employment is grossly overstated.

If employment was THAT good then there'd be widespread wage pressure and it's STILL not there. All those so-called "job openings"? Those jobs are part companies just fishing, the rest only available at non-competitive wages because the cost doesn't justify an attractive level of compensation.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I'm willing to accept your general argument, BUT U6 is down to 7.4% and 3 or 4 years ago, the news said it was 12.7%. That is a big drop. When the guy was installing the roof, he said it was hard to keep good employees, because they'd be poached. Of course, we poach too!. The amusement parks are raising salaries. The restaurants are usually full. The hotels are having trouble, but it's because of the Red Tide, not economics. Several bums are not holding signs anymore.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The small businesses we bought cabinets,fixtures, sinks and tops and othe bathroom supplies from seemed busy and happy. Got some stuff at Home Depot, an

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The parking lot was as busy as it ever is. The factory crap at home depot had terrible fit and finish, but was cheap

Firemane said...

TJ

Your understanding of employment statistics is ... lacking.

Percentage of PT workers compared to FT has been relatively consistent for decades.

Though U6 didn't exist prior to 1993, the BLS has actually tracked PT workers and divided them between "for econ reasons" and "not" since 1955. Of course, you're implying FORCED PT work, which is the "for economic reasons" side of things. Here are some actual numbers:

In 1955, when first tracked there were about 2 million PT workers for econ reasons. The total labor force at that time was around 65 million.

2/65 = 3.07% (just fyi, total unemployed was slightly higher, for an unemployment rate of around 4%).

During the Reagan era the number spiked to 6.8 million at its worst, and gradually fell back to about 5 million by the time Reagan turned things over to Bush.

1988: 5M PTER - Labor Force = 122 M.

That's a 4.09% rate - (total unemployed was in the 6.5M range, with unemployment rate around 5.5).

1999: PT for econ reasons - roughly 3.3M with a labor force of about 140M. (2.3% PTER rate). Unemployed was about 5.6 and U3 was around 4%.

2018: PT for econ reasons current - 4.6M - labor force is just under 162M. That's 2.83% PTER Rate. Total unemployed is just below 6M, and U3 is 3.7%.

So, the reality is that the WORST example of a balloon in PTER workers at the end of a recovery was during the Reagan years.





Elizabeth Merceret said...

Fire, you can make those figures dance and sing. What do you think is full employment?
For white people?
For black people?

LBD said...

My idea of full employment is 2/3 of the population (people, not job counts) working. Part time would be 10%. Full time would be 40+ hours overtime and part time less then 40 down to 30. Less than that they are not even on the radar. Benefits as employers wish to participate. Americans are to lazy to work hard anymore but blame everyone but themselves. IMO.

Yes the working age has to be raised. If you consider college grads are 22 years or older shortens their participation.

I think the current data is make believe for the governments benefit. IMO

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Agreed on increasing Working age. Found a really good blog. The Bubble Bubble, run by Columbo. Very good posters, better than CR at its peak. So far.

Firemane said...

Liz,

I've said it before. I think having more jobs available than people looking for work is a good definition for full employment, (which means we are already there).

LBD,

I'm sure you came up with those targets by a complex scientific method. They, of course, wouldn't be "made up" out of thin air just for your own benefit?



Firemane said...

Getting away from employment - let me share this conspiracy theory with you. (Partially, but not entirely tongue in cheek).

The US is the last remaining developed country that has for-profit health care.

For most of the 20th century life expectancy was rising steadily, though in the US is has dramatically slowed recently.

Health Care is a fairly unique industry in that the better you do your job (make people well), the less your services are needed. Therefore, the industry on the whole actually has an INCENTIVE to *MAKE PEOPLE SICK*.

Since the 1980, Nutrition Science made major changes claiming the American diet was terrible. In the ensuing 40 years, we have had a massive increase in CHRONIC diseases: (diabetes, alzheimers, high BP, etc.). We have also had a massive increase in "forever" drugs - designed to ostensibly lower risks of major health issues by taking them long before symptoms of actual problems arise. Many of these drugs have side effects that make people feel worse and require additional drugs to counter the side effects, (this actually happened with my Mom).

Previous psychological studies have proven that among all professionals, people will do almost anything a Dr. asks without question, (famous Milgram "shock" experiment). So, Health Care professionals are uniquely positioned to tell you to do things that are bad for your health to create more business for themselves with few people ever objecting.

For a more recent example, I'd say Nassar.



Elizabeth Merceret said...

Ok but what about black people. I hope they can expect to do better than 5.8%.
Even though that is the best ever

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Nassar?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

I try to eat reasonably well,.but I have diabetes. However, it goes back 3 generations. And is on both sides. I got it a quarter century after my grandmother. I gave up drinking soda decades ago. Telling people to eat their veggies simply doesn't work. I think we have to figure out what does.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Found out who Nassar is.

LBD said...

V-8 juice and spike it with hot sauce to taste.

LBD said...

Our medical system is the best and I am sad to see it Mc Donaldized. Being a big consumer of medicine and treatment I have to say I am biased. It is totally volunteer so you can turn down your doctors recommendations at your own risk. Medical care is expensive and priceless when you need it.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yep, I have had good experiences, but we've also said no a few times.

Anonymous said...

The mission of most doctors seems to to get you on whatever drugs are the current "standard of care".

Then treat the side effects as needed and as possible.

TJandTheBear said...

Touche' Firemane,

PT *has* declined quite a bit since the Obamacare surge, so I was definitely out-of-date on that argument.

Sooooo... how do you explain the lack of real wage growth? It's been pretty much flat for years. The participation rate has been nearly flat as well since it stopped declining. U3 clearly doesn't indicate what it used to.

Before I go spouting off on any other inadequately researched theories (for which I have no good excuse given the easy availability of data) what else do you have to offer?

TJandTheBear said...

Regarding medicine... I've always been treated well but it's definitely a racket that defies everything for which (what used to be a) free, capitalist society stands. No transparency, no real competition, total disconnect of consumers vs. payers. Like higher Ed, large government involvement has screwed the pooch cost-wise, which is why Medicare & Medicaid spending makes the Pentagon envious.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Where the hell is dawg?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Newish neighborhood cat is hostile to our cat. Or vice versa. Lots of hissing and growling through the glass.

Firemane said...

Liz,

Part of the issue with computing "full employment" is in understanding why you really can't get 100% employment, even in the best of times. While, like most things, it's a host of reasons, I believe (though I don't have actual data to support this), that the primary cause of "frictional" unemployment (that is - the unemployed people during "full employment" periods), is GEOGRAPHICAL.

Nationwide we have 7.1M jobs available and only 5.9M unemployed. But, we don't have the same U3 in every state or county or city. Mississippi has 4.8 U3, (besides Alaska, one of the worst rates in the country currently). Economic opportunity is not uniformly distributed.

My belief is that much of the sustained economic depression in historically black neighborhoods has a significant self-fulfilling prophecy aspect to it. Nobody wants to try to build businesses and create economic growth because the area is economically depressed.

But, the occasional entrepreneur, like Magic Johnson, who takes a risk, goes into a "ghetto" area, and puts forth effort to offer jobs CAN turn around impoverished areas. It's not easy. You've got a host of problems beyond "normal" entrepreneurial issues.

And ... of course, you still have real societal biases (on both sides), helping perpetuate the cycle.

The question is not "how do we get black U3 down to 4%. The question is how do we make jobs available to historically impoverished and economic depressed areas which happen to have large black populations?

LBD said...

Good Morning!

It isn't a black or white thing for me It is Americans and Illegals that I question.

Firemane said...

TJ,

I had written a really long answer, which got gone. The short guess.

1) From 1950-2000 wage growth stats were distorted due to the influx of women into the workforce. We went from 35% female working age participation to 70% over those 50 years. That influx "distorted" nearly every economic stat out there. With wages - the #1 historical stat has always been *HOUSEHOLD* income. Having 1.35 wage earners compared to 1.7 wage earners drastically changes that math.

2) Death of unions and business consolidation. Again, prior to 1980, unions were a MAJOR influence on wages in America. Outside of sports, they aren't any more. Also, there's been a long, slow degradation of small business vs. big business. That means actual "competition" for employees within specific skill sets has been getting progressively smaller. Ice that cake with some industry specific collusion, and you've got a perfect recipe for wage stagnation.

3) Change in how people are hired. Instead of individual applying at 20 places, interviewing at 10, and taking the best offer, today the standard route is apply with an agency (on-line counts), and have THEM send you to prospective employers. Problem: Temp/Head-hunter gets paid by employer, not employee. So, there is potential incentive there to steer toward lower paying to employee (but higher paying to service) targets. I'm prone to think this particular example is wrong - probably happens - but not at the volumes to impact overall numbers. But, the premise of unintended consequences from the change I still believe is potentially valid.

4) Demographics. We KNOW we are reaching a critical point for retirements (the flood of boomers). We have a pay scale that is SENIORITY based. If highest paying salaries are dropping off the wage calculation that can impact the aggregate totals (which are not typically broken up by quintiles).

It's EASY for the politically minded (either side) to paint businesses as stingier, or workforce as lazier. It's nigh on impossible to actually convince anyone that "philosophically neutral" mathematical variables are the root cause of a change in expected outputs we are used to.

The problem is - "nefarious" and "unrelated" variables can potentially create the same outputs. In baseball, in 1920 there was a massive explosion in home runs. It wasn't due to Steroids. In the '90s, there was another massive explosion in HRs. It was. Today in baseball, we have record strikeouts - but another spike in HRs. Nefarious? Are pitchers suddenly better?

The answer is - there has been a "cultural change". The mindset that "striking out" was an evil to be avoided -- where guys like Dave Kingman and Rob Deer were openly ridiculed has been replaced by "fanning doesn't matter if you hit enough HRs".

LBD said...

One more item to note the death of unions is global trade. We quit buying our own products that where union and produced with high wages. That broke the loop we enjoyed for only a couple of decades water WWII.

Firemane said...

Well said LBD.

The change from national to global economy is certainly having many impacts on many number series. The most obvious would be inflation "vanishing". All the economic models expecting inflation were built in a time frame where domestic goods vastly outnumbered imports. That ship has sailed (as it were), and it changes all the computations.

Clearly we have a case when wage pressures get "high enough", if we CAN export the labor, we do. So, for manufactured goods (anything that can be transported), wage increases we got 50 years ago are turning into plant relocations to Mexico and China.

That's one of the reasons the saunter away from manufacturing to service economy has turned into a full gallup. You CAN'T export services that MUST be delivered locally. You can't pay a guy in Singapore $1 an hour to fix your plumbing, mow your lawn, cut your hair or walk your dog. You CAN pay a guy who MOVED from Singapore less to do that here - but it's still going to be at least minimum wage.

Of course, this is one of the reasons why I think paying more attention to steady and gradual minimum wage increases may be called for to replace the Sprint and Drift model we have developed in the past 40 years.

LBD said...

So why do we freely import poverty?

Firemane said...

I disagree with your premise.

Importing poverty is not the same as importing people who happen to be poor.

The US was built on the backs of poor people who wanted to be here. My view is we are great BECAUSE we accepted people who had one, and only one, consistent trait. They wanted a better life for themselves.

The wave of Irish immigrants were poor.
So were the Italians.
So were the Asians.

Yes, it can take several generations to climb the ladder. But that is precisely what America has been about.

The ONLY exception I know to that reality is ... the slaves. They were the one group that were brought to America that had not SELF-SELECTED by ambition to make that journey.

I actually have had the pleasure to work closely with a surprisingly large number of immigrants. I have personally yet to meet a single one that wasn't interested in working hard to get ahead for themselves and their families. I am familiar with a surprisingly large number of offspring of hard-working Americans from the past generations who don't appear to have inherited any ambition other than to stare at their parent-paid-for smart phones.

Now, clearly there are exceptions. But, my view is this. Between expecting the act of being born on a specific tract of land "magically" granting one ambition vs. looking at a group of people who literally risk their lives for a chance at a better life - I would bet on the latter group out-performing the former over time as a group without question.

Being born with money doesn't guarantee one is going to become a lazy bum. But, It doesn't guarantee ambition either.

TJandTheBear said...

Oh yeah, I'd trade migrant workers for true welfare bums every day of the week, but that isn't happening.

You make a lot of good arguments, but I still think something's missing. At these levels of U3 (and open jobs exceeding UE by 1.2M) pure competition for bodies should be driving wages higher, even more so just given skills-matching issues. It just isn't happening.
--
BTW, demographics is a wonderful topic in and of itself. All kinds of implications there.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Why are only the poor nefarious?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Yes, yes, hm yes.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The Bosses dig in and refuse to raise wages. I think it is a competition thing more than a money thing. If you lose your spot in the hierarchy, it is devastating. All blacks used to be lower than all whites. Now they aren't . You may drop many levels and each one makes you madder. Now some women are rising above you too and you can't even express your male prerogative to grab a kiss or cop a feel, without the possibility of getting into real trouble.0

Elizabeth Merceret said...

You know, you can find some trainable and train them. That used to happen

LBD said...

A few problems with your immigration comment using the Italians and Asians as well as all European immigrants. They where needed to settle the land and help a growing industrial economy. They simply didn't run over the boarder as many came through Ellis island after sailing accrossed the ocean. They didn't bring the drug trade in mass as today. There was no social services to exploit like today. They blended in to America as most don't today. If they stole and lied to survive in their own country do you think they just became honest crossing the boarder illegally? We have allowed Mexicans in to the country under agreements, generally farm labor and they left when the job was done. We even rounded them up and deported them after helping with the WWII effort. Now it is all the world jumping the boarder claiming political asylum and bodily harm. You could do the same in any major city like Chicago. They continue to drown the lower end and now trade jobs. Wonder why there is no bottom up wage increase? America used to be about Americans. IMO

TJandTheBear said...

"The Bosses dig in and refuse to raise wages."

A recipe for failure in a competitive economy. If U3 is that low then companies have to poach from others to survive, and that means offering them more money.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Dawg? Wolf wolf!!!

LBD said...

Good Morning!

TJ&Bear BINGO!


Employers don't want to leave money on the table over wages if prices can command a reasonable profit.

Employer trick to compensate for not providing company medical to all. Flat rate pay set a goal like 50 hrs a week and pay a bonus for it. Keeps the employee on track and worth the cost to the employer. Really another example of Government meddling and business doing an end run around them.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Only you should get medical care?

Thomas Stone said...

I gace Dawg a call this morning, he's been having too much fun to post.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Thanks Tom. Well,
The talking heads are saying that prices are in a bubble. Any thoughts?

Jim the Realtor said...

People are saying prices have plateaued, but I prefer to call it a perma-bubble.

There aren't any sellers motivated enough that they will dump on price. Banks stopped foreclosing (at leasr they did in California) and if you need money just get a reverse mortgage instead of selling.

Anyone who gets hot about politics or traffic and says they are leaving will get a cold dose of reality when they find out their exaggerated idea of their homes value is now 15% to 20% wrong (instead of the usual +10% of optimism).

Rather than "giving it away", they will go back to cursing at the TV and wait until "the market comes back".

The rest of us have to wait until the boomers die, and see if the kids are interested in a bundle of tax-free money, or watch them have to move in to their parents home because they couldn't afford to buy a house on their own.

LBD said...

When I was young and couldn't afford it I ran with out and made it till I could. It was cheaper then but they could not do the things they do today. Make an affordable plan that covers 1965 treatments and medicine, I bet it would be cheap.

I guess Dawg trusts us to be civil. :)

Elizabeth Merceret said...

We are civil!
Unemployment in Brevard County is an incredible 2.9%. I choose to rejoice! Space biz is super booming. I expect it will go even lower. Whether it's full or not, well, does it matter?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Also some other countries are lower than that. Monroe County, the Keys,
is 2.3 or 4, I forget.

Thomas Stone said...

JtR, good to see you here!
Two local subdivisions are offering 5% to any agent who brings a buyer.
Not cheap houses either, $740K to the mid $900K range with plenty of bling.
I got a similar offer from an outfit in Sacramento County recently.
They are all offering "Free Upgrades" as well, roughly worth 1% of the sales price.
I do know a couple of people who are taking their properties off the market until prices come back up, they will have a longer wait than they expect...
Sellers are still often listing at the price Zillow values their home at.
I took a look at one yesterday.
"Zestimate" $795,629.
Trulia $795,782
Redfin $ 651,640

Since you can buy a brand new home 500 Sq Ft larger that is less than a mile away for $735K I suspect these valuations my not be entirely accurate...

Jim the Realtor said...

>>I suspect these valuations my not be entirely accurate...

Hello Tom!

Yes, those valuation algorithms aren't that great, well, at least not until the home goes on the market. Then they get deadly accurate, all of a sudden:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2018/10/20/modern-farmhouse-open-12-3/

Elizabeth Merceret said...

The house next door sold only 3 1/2% less than the original asking price.

TJandTheBear said...

Great stuff from the men at ground zero -- Tom & Jim!

There's a better than even chance that we've seen both the low in rates and high in the stock market, therefore barring that elusive "wage growth" we've been discussing there's nothing broadly positive for real estate. You guys got your work cut out for you.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

As to decrease in unemployment, rotten neighborhoods don't automatically get better. Instead, people who are helped--and they are helped--move into a better neighborhood. How many gentrifying, I don't know.
So, I hypothesize than black people are drifting out to better neighborhoods, as they get jobs, and the ones left behind get worse and worse. Until they are gentrified, or are torn down and used for something else, or just sit there.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Low in rates, probably. High in market, don't think so except volatility zagging down and then then zigging up more.

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Kalifornia is now and always a big guess to me. Are the lenders maintaining qualification discipline?

Elizabeth Merceret said...

Since black unemployment has gone down from 16.something to 5.8%, and are not improving their same neighborhoods, where are they going?

TJandTheBear said...

The new highs in the markets were all driven by the FAANG stocks, and since those have started to roll over the indexes will now reflect the broader market. All foreign markets have already been diving, plus various sectors of the US have been breaking down for some time (such as homebuilders).

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 216   Newer› Newest»