Monday, October 01, 2018

I Can Guess McCaskill's Vote



22 comments:

Firemane said...

Well, I get the logic. It's a red state, so any Dem needs to run as a moderate. The numbers "might" be right.

But, I see this particular election cycle as being a particularly difficult one to model correctly. For all the talk of "blue wave", one could just as easily say "pink wave". The #MeToo crowd, et al, was hyped up for this cycle long before Kav came along.

I'm not saying the polling models are wrong. But, I do suspect if they are off this time in under-counting some segment of voters in their pre-game polling in a meaningful amount, (as they were in 2016 with non-college whites), this time it will be in getting the female projections wrong.

As for the political calculus, she came out as a no vote long enough ago that I don't think flip-flopping at this point would be the winning move the polling numbers shown would indicate.

IMO, too many variables still in play to base too much on that data.

Depends on what the FBI report says. (and whether the report release includes a 45 minute rant).
Depends on whether she votes no and that's the deciding vote.
Depends on potential backlash voting for an accused rapist.




dilbert dogbert said...

Jess incase the dawg didn't see my comment on the Planets:
Dawg, Yes!!! Looked what happened when we let those damn Irish in. A fatal mistake.!!!
Full disclousure: My great granda's name was McKeon.

LBD said...

My sister is now a DAR member and is starting to apply for the Mayflower group. So I guess we have been around a while.

Can we dig up Mother Teresa and vet her for the job or is it to late. ��

Lawyerliz said...

Nah, she'd forgive everyone and piss.off Trump.

Lawyerliz said...

Me, just Civil war.

Lawyerliz said...

I could be a civil war daughter.

Lawyerliz said...

My grandson would be his 4 greats descendant, with at least 2 generations behind that here. I am a 2nd generation immigrant, German on my granddad side

Firemane said...

On my Dad's side, I think we go back to the Quakers. I know there is an Icabod Hemenway from colonial New England (either Boston, or maybe Connecticut) back there. On my Mom's side, my grandfather was a Bullock, so English. My Mom's mom was a Scott ... so, no clue where she came from. Unfortunately, I don't know my Mom's side of the family for more than 3 generations because ... no lie ... the family Bible was eaten by a goat.



Rob Dawg said...

> Icabod Hemenway from colonial New England (either Boston, or maybe Connecticut)

I lived on Hemenway St in Boston. Oh yeah, that's deep ancestry.

Unknown said...

My dads side were Germans and have been here since the early 1800's. My great great grandfather shot a man in Tennessee and then fled with the family to Texas. Mom's side were English with some relation to the Middleton royals. They settled in Ohio and then became Sooners in Muskogee Oklahoma when the land rush happened. We have pictures of them hauling dozens of MASSIVE catfish out of the Canadian River.

TJandTheBear said...

According to my LDS relatives my ancestry includes an officer of one of Columbus' three ships. Overall I refer to my bloodline as "EuroMutt".

Lawyerliz said...

Haha, me too!

LBD said...

Good Morning!��

Talked to my sister and she say we are related to Richard Warren. Wakopedia list the name as signing the Mayflower Pact. Interesting if it gets all confirmed and she becomes a member of the May Flower society. Had no clue part of the family went back that far, kind of shocked.

The big rain from the hurricane never hit so back to fun.

LBD said...

Wow! How about that stock market! Crazy!

Lawyerliz said...

We settled NAFTA with our frenemies Canada and Mexico?

Lawyerliz said...

Trump and Dad tax fraud

LBD said...

No different then Mom & Pop tax fraud except scale. Deduction are many times debatable especially with accounts an lawyers. Who is in your Wallet? LOL!

Firemane said...

Did everyone get their FEMA text?

My flip phone (it's an LG ... I think before LG started getting numbers) ... not a peep. But, pretty much every cube around me all went bonkers at 2:18 local.

So, if my technology is so old, FEMA can't issue me a warning, does that mean I'm "off the grid"?

LBD said...

That means your free!

Phones went off driving back from breakfast Pacific time corrected.

Rob Dawg said...

It will be interesting to check traffic accident statistics for that minute.

Regardless; new post.

Lawyerliz said...

Lucky you.

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