Thursday, October 25, 2018

Dangerous With a Camera

 A few pics.  You'll be begging me to stop before long. 
This lil feller greeted us at the fish docks.


A real libarry.

Chatham is shark obsessed. 
We ate in a lot.  This was omelets and fried potatoes. 

Water everywhere.  This dock can be yours for $4.5m.  You get a house too. 

The P-Town Lesbians beat the Cape cod gay Girls in grab football. 

Early GPS. 

Colors are very late this year. 

A brook. 

It isn't a vacation without off roading in a rental. 

Sometimes the traffic felt like this. 

21 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

What's P-town?
Seals are cute.
Things look prosperous.

Lawyerliz said...

Prosperous??

Firemane said...

Responding to your comment that U3 is broken.

I disagree ... sort of. My view is the "perception" of the value of U3 has ALWAYS been "off". I don't believe it is any more off today than 50 years ago. I see it like batting average - the #1 stat in baseball for a century. What it captured NEVER changed. But, for 80 years, people "believed" (especially actual baseball people), that it captured more than it did. Even today, we have older generations of baseball fans, pundits, and players themselves who still think "modern" baseball stats are all suspect.

The problem is not with the stats - but with the woefully awful misperceptions the masses have about ALL stats.

For me, U3 is exactly as valuable today as it was under Johnson or Reagan or Clinton.

The problem (IMHO) is the (ALWAYS wrong) belief that ANY stat should be expected to "perfectly" comparable in different eras.

In baseball there are a whole host of "plus" stats today, (OPS+, ERA+, etc.), that actually adjust for variables like park and era, (so one CAN compare Babe Ruth to Mickey Mantle to Barry Bonds).

For me, the issue is not whether a stat is "good" or "bad", but simply understanding what it does AND does not tell you.

With U3, from 1940s until the '90s, it was the only game in town. But in the early 90s, we sub-divide into U1-U6. U6 is no better than U3. It just presents a different (but equally flawed) data series. But, we only have U6 data from 1993, so we don't and can't know what the precise U6 values were under Ike or Nixon or Reagan, etc.

But, we can reasonably assume they were "similar" to the ones we have based on some data we do have from those eras. The trend lines would certainly have been very similar. But, it's like saying slugging percentage is "better" than batting average. It's not. It's just different.

Rob Dawg said...

> "For me, U3 is exactly as valuable today as it was under Johnson or Reagan or Clinton. "

U-3 doesn't capture anywhere near the fraction of the workforce it did in 80s or 60s. Worse, things like contractors are the first to be let go and first to fill demand.

Rob Dawg said...

Liz, P-town of Providence, Massachusetts where the Pilgrims landed. I always knew they were stupid but on the boat to Nantucket and in a museum I got the rest of the story. Stupid and incompetent. They ment to go to Jamestown, Virgina but "got blown off course." They tried to sail south around Cap Cod but encountered shoals. They ended up in Plymouth, Ma late Dec 1620. By spring half the Pilgrims and half the crew died.

Don't get me started on "religious freedom."

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Phone camera is on the blink but caught R2D2's retirement job. I read about these a few years ago, they leash for less then minimum wage. It even stopped and thanked you for visiting Twin Arrows casino. There goes another job.

https://imgur.com/a/oDQC6ur

Unknown said...

LBD, do they have firearm training?

LBD said...

They can detect nefarious activity and report, video as well. I bet the next improvement will be tasers.

Firemane said...

*U-3 doesn't capture anywhere near the fraction of the workforce it did in 80s or 60s. Worse, things like contractors are the first to be let go and first to fill demand. *

I have no idea why you believe this. It's simply not true.

U3 has always been computed by polling individuals. It still does. Contractors are not excluded in any way from the way U3 data is gathered or reported.

From the BLS HHS:

*People are classified as employed if they did any work
at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked
in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or
worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or
farm. People are also counted as employed if they were
temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad
weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal
reasons.*

While there have been some minor tweaks to the wording over the years, the practical definition of "employed" has not changed appreciably since the '40s. Note: This is *WHY* they created all of the other series (U1-U6), so they could track additional stuff without needing to significantly redefine "employed" and "unemployed".



LBD said...

Now that I think of it pepper spray would be a low risk weapon. On duty security commander could arm and fire via wi-fi or radio control.

Rob Dawg said...

> It even stopped and thanked you for visiting Twin Arrows casino.

I am pissed at these. One in NYC wished me a good evening so it could get me to look at it and get a face recognition picture.

LBD said...

I would be surprised when I went through a illegal immigrant check point in West Texas a couple of years ago that all those strange cameras lined up as I drove through got something of me. They will or have got you some where with out you knowing it by now. Sad really, sad.

Lawyerliz said...

Aren't things better than they were?

Lawyerliz said...

The mkt went up again. I hope someone here is betting on volatility.

LBD said...

I just ride the coaster with my funds. They are so far ahead even with the kick in the knee. My Stock poorfolio is very small and getting smaller. Gambling with the kids inheritance is fun. LOL!

Met these guys on a walk around the RV resort in Lake Havasu.

https://imgur.com/a/lKZ7F4v

There was a baby but my camera went dead.

TJandTheBear said...

Sucker's rallies. The market will bleed the BTFD traders dry.

Lawyerliz said...

Not if you bet on volatility

Lawyerliz said...

Futures are down.

Rob Dawg said...

New Post

Lawyerliz said...

Down into correction.

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