A Toast to Bipartisanship

In 1952, Armon M. Sweat, Jr., a member of the Texas House of Representatives, was asked about his position on whiskey. What follows is his exact answer (taken from the Political Archives of Texas):
"If you mean whiskey, the devil's brew, the poison scourge, the bloody monster that defiles innocence, dethrones reason, destroys the home, creates misery and poverty, yea, literally takes the bread from the mouths of little children; if you mean that evil drink that topples Christian men and women from the pinnacles of righteous and gracious living into the bottomless pit of degradation, shame, despair, helplessness, and hopelessness, then, my friend, I am opposed to it with every fiber of my being.
"However, if by whiskey you mean the oil of conversation, the philosophic wine, the elixir of life, the ale that is consumed when good fellows get together, that puts a song in their hearts and the warm glow of contentment in their eyes; if you mean Christmas cheer, the stimulating sip that puts a little spring in the step of an elderly gentleman on a frosty morning; if you mean that drink that enables man to magnify his joy, and to forget life's great tragedies and heartbreaks and sorrow; if you mean that drink the sale of which pours into Texas treasuries untold millions of dollars each year, that provides tender care for our little crippled children, our blind, our deaf, our dumb, our pitifully aged and infirm, to build the finest highways, hospitals, universities, and community colleges in this nation, then my friend, I am absolutely, unequivocally in favor of it.
"This is my position, and as always, I refuse to compromise on matters of principle."

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Now we get "career ending" sips of bottled water.  .  

Let's Play Tax Basis

No doubt Prop 13 has resulted in some perverse outcomes.  Here's a chance to play a game called Guess the taxes.  Playing today are two properties.  Contestant #2 is 80 acres in Sonoma, California. 
Contestant #1 is a cute 2+2 on 0.07 acres in bucolic Camarillo, California. 

Guess their taxes!  As a hint the Camarillo cutie recently got a huge break in their taxable basis. 

As another hint the Sonoma property has been paying Prop 13 since 1978  on the 1975 fair market price plus 2% compounded ever since. 

It Smells Like... Victorville!

Some wacky stuff happens in bubbles and their aftermath.  Here's a house new in 2006 that has seen it all.

13673 Princeton Dr, Victorville, CA 92392

Trulia listing.

Zillow listing.  

Price history:

02/13/2013	Listed for sale	$70,000	-80.2%	$34
04/24/2006	Sold	$354,000	--	$174

Here's a more telling story, the tax history:

2012	$1,576	0.6%	$124,500	--
2011	$1,566	100%	$124,500	--
2010	$783	-55.3%	$124,500	-13.5%
2009	$1,752	-78.7%	$144,000	-46.1%
2008	$8,227	1,716%	$267,000	-26%
2007	$453	--	$360,628

The realtor couldn't even bother with pictures and just slapped up the google street view.  

Rather than make you look at this gem of the desert I present instead this gem of the desert:

BOHICA

Greetings California.

California Democrats consider giving lawmakers more say over initiatives






The November election delivered California Democrats a coveted supermajority for governing the state.

Now the party's leader in the Senate wants to use that political capital to give the Legislature more say in the voter initiatives that make their way to the ballot.

Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg plans to unveil what he calls "a starting point ... to begin a very serious discussion about initiative reform" this month. Key to his proposal will be increasing lawmakers' involvement in the system.

"The initiative process is important and all efforts should be to strengthen it, but the biggest problem, I believe, is that there is not a real connection between the initiative process and representative government in a way that could make both representative government and the initiative product better," he said.

The idea that the state's 101-year-old direct democracy process needs updating isn't new. The rising cost of initiative campaigns, crowded ballots and legal battles over language have fueled calls for reform.

Shortages of political will and cash have sidelined previous efforts to change the system, through both the Legislature and the initiative process.

Democrats now have the ability, however, to put the changes on the ballot without GOP votes. Providing extra motivation is the struggle they faced to put a tax measure on the November 2012 ballot.

Steinberg's package will likely include an "indirect initiative" proposal, which would let the Legislature amend or enact an initiative proposal with proponents' OK.

...

Steinberg is also considering efforts to lower the vote threshold for state lawmakers to put taxes on the ballot ...


Lawmakers have long been critical of aspects of the initiative process, particularly ballot-box budgeting that they say constrains spending....


Former Center for Governmental Studies President Bob Stern,..."Many legislators would want to abolish (the initiative process) if they could do it privately with a private vote," Stern said. ...


STEINBERG'S IDEAS FOR INITIATIVE CHANGES

• Allow the Legislature to put statutory initiatives, such as tax measures, on the ballot with a majority vote. Changes to the state constitution would still require a two-thirds vote.

• Allow the Legislature to offer amendments to a proposed initiative or pass its own version of the changes with sign-off from proponents.

• Require ballot measures to sunset or be reapproved after 10 years.

• Require that initiative proponents rely on a certain number of small donors or volunteers to collect the signatures needed to qualify for the ballot.

U-Haul Index

In honor of Governor Rick Perry visiting Oxnard here are today's rates for a one way U-Haul move

Ahh the lure of the Golden State.

Priced to Sit

Classic example of everything wrong with bad pricing and wishful thinking.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Wrightwood/1510-Ross-St-92397/home/21899815?utm_medium=email&utm_source=myredfin&utm_campaign=listings_update

The listing says 2,240 sq ft but the Assessor says 1,788 sq ft.
Asking price is listed as $145/sf but is actually $182/sf.
The village generally sells for $141/sf. per Dataquick.
Location, location, location.  At less than 5000 sf lot this property backs up against the main highway.  Hardly the mountain retreat experience.
And finally the price.  $325,000 is just the most expensive of its type anywhere in the village and pretty much everywhere in the village is a better property.

and finally, it's boring.

More Porridge for the Golden Bear

Great news for California State revenue in Hanuary.  $5 above expectations erasing the $1.8 billion accumulated shortfall this fiscal year to date.  Almost as good news, previous budget constraints suggest that most of this will go to restoring school funding that had been shortchanged in the budget.  That means there won't be the usual money grab in Sacramento that ends up usually spending more that the windfall brings in.

Here's a decent LATimes link.

The analyst's office floated three possible causes for the surge in tax revenue. The most positive theory is also the simplest -- the economy has improved and there's more income to tax.

The others are less optimistic. It's possible that wealthy residents, fearful that federal budget negotiations would increase their taxes, decided to cash out investments early. If so, that means the state could see less tax revenue in the next fiscal year.

It could also be an issue of timing -- this year, residents may end up paying more of their taxes in January and less in April.

As expected not a peep about using the money to backfill all the unacknowledged debt.  

Like the Bubble Never Happened

Local new listing.

http://www.trulia.com/property/3107437301-1062-Deseo-Ave-Camarillo-CA-93010

Nice house, nice view (alright my view) and excellent school district (alright, my school district).

But damn, you better not be old.  Even then you better be in shape.  In fact the driveway gets downright dangerous to walk with just rain.  But it is a feature not a bug to many so lets look at the price history.

01/15/2013 Asks $839,000

09/15/2003 Sold $725,000

12/14/2001 Sold $630,000

Like the title says, as if the bubble never happened.  Nice steady returns over the years.  Bears watching to see if this sits or flies off the shelf.

And for "Outsider" a pic of the driveway. 

Revestor App

There's an new app for your mobile device.  Called Revestor here's a review.  I've tried it and while still thin on listings the automated cap rate and cash flow estimates are very useful.

“Instead of investors and Realtors using multiple apps and archaic spreadsheets they can now save hours worth of research and analysis by letting Revestor do all the heavy lifting,” the company notes. The free iPhone app is the company’s latest feature launch, arriving shortly before their showcase on the Shark Tank on ABC.

Living High Desert and Fancy Free

Foreclosure Information

  

SEPT 27 2012	Home in default	$64,770past due	The owner of this property has been served a Notice of Default.
OCT 30 2007	Loan issued	$253,468	A loan was issued by BANK OF AMERICA NA on 10/30/07 in the amount of$253,468.
OCT 30 2007	Previous sale	$279,000	This home last sold for $279,000.

Okay, let's look at that.  10% down end of Oct 2007.  First payment Dec 2007.  Approx monthly mortgage payment; $1400.  Call the monthly late fee and penalty 10%.  $1540.  46 months later they owe $64,770.  Looks like they made about 6 payments and lived for free for 3 1/2 years.  

Here's this particular gem of the high desert.  

No doubt Cinco-X will appreciate the moisture along the foundation behind the kitchen.

So, What about prospects as a rental?  I'm sure the municipality and state would like that.

Tax History via Zillow 

Year	Property taxes	Change	Tax assessment	Change
2011	$3,613	100%	$124,600	--
2010	$1,806	-65.1%	$124,600	-30%
2009	$5,175	--	$178,000	-29.6%
2008	$5,175	--	$253,000	-20.7%
2007	$0	--	$319,053	--

At $253,000 the taxes were $5,175 or 2.05%.
At $124,600 the taxes are $3,613 or 2.9%.  

So much for Prop 13 protections eh?  So, the first $300/mo of rent goes to taxes.  

FS: Nothing

Click for a larger view of a whole lotta nuttin'

Via Craigslist:

5 Acres 29 Palms 

$125.00 per month payments 

(San Bernardino County)

Located on Naborly Road in 29 Palms
Has Electric!!!!
Click on link to see overhead view:
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=34.1608506,+-115.816532355&hl=en&sll=37.269174,-119.306607&sspn=6.764918,14.128418&t=m&z=16

Taxes are $100.00 per year.
Terms are for 10 years.
No credit checks. No down Payment!

Call Timothy Yxxxx 949-584-xxxx

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So what is the price?  This isn't a damn sub prime car loan purchase.  Oh well, I'm sure there's a sucker someplace.

In the auto sales business an incautious buyer is known as a "lay down."  

Packing Up

A new US Census Bureau report shows that, "About 100,000 more Californians moved to another state in 2011 than California gained from other states," in the summary by the Sacramento Bee. The main destinations of the 562,343 Californians who left: Texas 58,992, Arizona 49,635, Nevada 40,114 and Washington 38,421. Note that, of those four states, three have no state income tax at all. And the fourth, Arizona, has a top rate of 4.54 percent, just under a third of California's top rate.

Read more: http://www.appeal-democrat.com/articles/tax-121854-state-california.html#ixzz2H1Uoovyy

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The Controllers office says it's too early to tell whether the new highest in the nation top rate will actually have an effect.  Riiiight.  

iOS Early Beta Selling Poorly

Windows 8 Hangover

• Last Friday, an online data and ad company found that Surface RT tablet users accounted for less than 0.25 percent of Web traffic during the weeks before Christmas, while users of Apple's iPad tablets still generate more than 87 percent of U.S. and Canadian tablet Web traffic.
• On Thursday, the CEO of Japan's biggest provider of computer services said Fujitsu will miss its annual shipment target for personal computers amid slow demand for Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system.
• The week before, Acer's America's president Emmanuel Fromont said, "It's a slow start, there's no question." At the end of November, Asus CFO David Chang said, "Demand for Windows 8 is not that good right now."
• In early December, four weeks after its launch, Windows 8 had just a 58 percent share of Windows PCs sold during that period, while Windows 7 took 83 percent of Windows sales in its first four weeks, according to NPD, a research firm whose market share data I find to be accurate. (There's a lot of iffy data repoprted as fact because many companies don't report actual sales to customers, leaving analysts to try to figure it out on their own.) Of course PC sales have declined under Windows 8, so it was a smaller piece of a smaller pie.

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One word: Zune.  

Sleep In

This is one of those slow broken weeks.  Might as well sleep late.  Early next week we get the bad news from the State Controller about December revenues.  We should also see a fair weather states big pop in for sale inventory.  I might be early but the Administration may start rolling out their comprehensive climate change policy before the re-inauguration.  Hey!  What happened to the comprehensive national energy policy?

Doomstead

Nice unobstructed 360° views of the apocalypse from this lovely acreage.  Looks like somebody was ready for the Mayan prophesies and that didn't work out.  Anyway presenting:
http://www.trulia.com/property/3104393960-7700-Ranchero-Rd-Phelan-CA-92371

Home for sale in Phelan, CA $382,000 USD

WOW!! Picturesque Panoramic views of valley, mountains and city lights. Private and screen only the sounds of wild life and afar off train whistle, yet only 7 miles to town, 10 minutes to HWY 15. Two homes on a lot, Both homes are constructed with 9 inch exterior walls, synthetic finish, snow load roofs constructed for load, gutters , central air and heat, ramp and stair access. Beautiful Guest house is apx 1450 sq ft. 3 bedroom 2 bath sunken tub in master, Island kitchen with eat in dining area, cozy fireplace in living room, walk in closets in all large bedrooms, inside laundry room, central air and heat, fenced rear yard and a stout covered… patio, views beyond belief.  Main house is 3000 sq.ft. 4 bed, 2.5 baths, formal living room with fireplace, formal dining room, family room with wood burning stove, Island kitchen with eat at counters, master bedroom has a retreat and sunken tub and fabulous views.  There is a windmill and solar system with back up generator for electricity, easily maintained for free energy. (Apx. $160,000 electric system ). There is an electric gate enterance, apx. 27 acres is completely fenced with top rail chain link fencing. There are two 40 foot containers. Tenants would like to stay on. Seller is Original owner/builder.  

End of the world?  No problem.  You are already at the end of the world.