Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Falling Kinife Wrightwood

1537 Betty St, Wrightwood, CA
Price history such as it is:
01/17/2012 Listed for sale $159,000 -14.1% $222
07/30/2008 Sold $185,000 -19.2% $258
05/12/2008 Price change $229,000 -8.4% $319
02/19/2008 Listed for sale $249,900 186% $349
10/19/2001 Sold $87,527 -- $122

Last month DQNews reported the village sales as averaging $105/sf.
I'm sure the 2008 knife catchers and current bag holders were sure they had stolen this house at $258/sf. The sad part is that the 2 "bedrooms are more like closets and the single bath is actually a 3/4 bath. See below:

Baltic Dry Index

BDI closed today below 1000. The second chart is Henry Hub Feb 2012 Natural Gas. 1000 what doesn't really matter. After all who even knows what $2.46 natural gas measures? Alright you smart readers know but most don't and don't care. As indicators they are both neigh impossible to manipulate. They both say we are headed into a global recession where production can be expected to decline. I expect the US economy to muddle along at these levels and Europe to get battered. More important, US housing will take that final capitulation price drop necessary to clear markets as the high end suffers more from wealth effects and strong dollar.

NAHB Index Up

From CR:

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a fourth consecutive month of improvement in January. The component gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 25, which was its highest point since June of 2007.  The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months also rose three points, to 29 -- its highest point since September 2009. And the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 21, its highest point since June of 2007. 


The usual codiciles apply this being an index and remaining deep in depressed territory. Still look at the dates the components were last this "good." every one a disaster time for the home builders. Earlier I commented on HCN that I thought there would be a pick up in construction far more optimistic than consensus. I base that in part on the running out of tax clawbacks the HBs have been living off for years. Like sharks it is swim or suffocate time.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012


Many thanks to Ken and kudos for his principled stand. For the duration feel free to post rants here.