Sunday, April 29, 2018

Kitchen Remodel #01 Update Before

Before 23 April 2018
Expect periodic progress pictures.  As you can see this is a kitchen in a time warp. 

Friday, April 27, 2018

Q1 '18 GDP First Cut

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2018
(table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the
fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the
Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete
data, will be released on May 30, 2018.
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed
investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal
government spending, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, residential fixed
investment, exports, and state and local government spending.  These movements were partly offset by
an upturn in private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $211.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $19.97
trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion (table 1 and
table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, the
same increase as in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased
2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (appendix table A).

Personal Income (table 10)

Current-dollar personal income increased $182.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase
of $186.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Decelerations in personal interest income, rental income, and
nonfarm proprietors' income were largely offset by accelerations in wages and salaries and in
government social benefits.

Personal current taxes decreased $40.1 billion in the first quarter compared with an increase of $50.1
billion in the fourth quarter.

Disposable personal income increased $222.1 billion, or 6.2 percent, in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of $136.3 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income
increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.

Personal saving was $462.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with $379.8 billion in the fourth
quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income --
was 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes provisions that impact the personal income statistics in the
National Income and Product Accounts. For more information, see the Technical Note.

Hard to believe reduced state and local government spending given the weather across much of the CONUS. I’d bet we see a large increase when all the bills are added up. The PCE 1% also sounds like an accounting quirk given the previous quarter of 4%.
Okay. There’s your on topic post. Everybody can now return to the all politics channel.

Thursday, April 26, 2018

California Serial Killer Suspect Arrested

DNA brings arrest of ex-police officer in Golden State serial killer case after decades


A break in the case and the arrest came together in "light speed" during the past six days, Schubert said, though authorities refused to reveal what led to DeAngelo.
Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones said detectives with "dogged determination" were able to get a sample of DNA from something DeAngelo discarded, though he wouldn't say what the item was. The genetic material was not a match, but there were enough similarities for investigators to return for more and they said they were able to get a conclusive match.


It is great that the slow wheels of justice have finally turned but....

I am pretty sure that the "sample" wasn't his sample but a relative from some routine check with enough alleles to draw attention to family relations.    That is concerning. 

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Same News Different Realities

Compare the LATimes top fold article:

Targeting the science behind EPA regulations EPA seeks to bar many health studies
Pruitt proposes to bar regulators from citing a vast range of health findings, a longtime goal of industry.
The Trump administration launched an attack on the science behind many of the nation’s clean air and clean water rules, announcing a proposal Tuesday that would in effect prevent regulators from considering a wide range of health studies when they look at new regulations.
The plan by Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt would prohibit what he and industry advocates call “secret science” — studies that make use of data that are kept confidential, often for privacy reasons.
The embattled EPA chief, whose own secrecy on his personal finances and his activities in office has drawn the attention of investigators, framed the action as crucial to government transparency.
“The era of secret science at EPA is coming to an end,” Pruitt said in a statement. “The ability to test, authenticate, and reproduce scientific findings is vital for the integrity of the rule-making process. Americans deserve to assess the legitimacy of the science underpinning EPA decisions that may impact their lives.”
Many of the country’s most prominent research organizations, however, say the studies that Pruitt wants to ban are crucial to effectively protecting the environment.
The proposal threatens to cut off the federal government’s access to essential data and subject science to political manipulation, the research groups say. That is because many health studies involve large amounts of patient data, which can be accessed only under condition of confidentiality.
Banning such studies would prevent the EPA from considering many health impacts when looking at rules to limit pollution. Identical proposals stalled in Congress after protests from research groups, including the University of California system and the American Assn. for the Advancement of Science.
Environmentalists said Pruitt’s motive is not to improve scientific integrity, but to stifle regulation.
“This is a blatant attack on science that undermines the EPA’s ability to protect our health and environment,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, the chief Washington lobbyist for the League of Conservation Voters. She called the proposal a “sham” that would “limit the EPA’s ability to use the best research on the health effects of pollution, which form the basis for vitally important protections.”
The proposal gave Pruitt an opportunity to rally his most loyal supporters at a time his job is in jeopardy. He faces multiple investigations for alleged ethical lapses, and his support at the White House and among Republican lawmakers who long defended him has begun to fade.


And this from Whats Up With That:

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt signed a proposed rule on Tuesday to prevent the agency from relying on scientific studies that don’t publish the underlying data.
“The era of secret science at EPA is coming to an end,” Pruitt said in a statement. “The ability to test, authenticate, and reproduce scientific findings is vital for the integrity of rulemaking process.”
Pruitt first announced his initiative to rid EPA of “secret science” in an exclusive interview with The Daily Caller News Foundation in March. The Obama administration relied on so-called “secret science” to justify billions of dollars worth of regulations.
“Americans deserve to assess the legitimacy of the science underpinning EPA decisions that may impact their lives,” Pruitt said.
EPA said the proposed rule would move the agency towards open data practices used by scientific journals and professional societies. The policy mirrors the HONEST Act introduced by Texas Republican Rep. Lamar Smith to end EPA’s use of “secret science.”
Smith and South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, who introduced the Senate version of the HONEST Act, spoke at the signing ceremony at EPA headquarters on Tuesday.
“Today’s directive is a significant step toward making sure these decisions are not made behind closed doors with information accessible only to those writing the regulations, but rather in the full view of those who will be affected,” Rounds said. “Administrator Pruitt rightfully is changing business as usual and putting a stop to hidden agendas,” Smith said.


Cognitive dissonance writ large. 

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Weather is Local

We've all experienced a different winter of 2017-18.  Some may even think it isn't even over yet.  And that's the point of this post.  You can carve data into thick juicy steaks or into delicate thin slices.  Too thick and it is hard to digest.  Too thin and it falls apart.  Take CONUS temperatures for March.

Unremarkable for such a long period of measurement.  Seems we've had an average winter. 

What happens when we "dig down?"

Doesn't look so average average now does it?  

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Rental Nation

The basal demand for SFRs is huge yet the market is severely biased towards rentals. From the latest MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, MARCH 2018 census report.

Mar 2018 from Feb 2018
Total 2.5%
1 unit ‐5.5%
2-4 units ‐12.8%
5+ units 22.9%

 Report here. 

Sunday, April 15, 2018

Their Taxes Will Cover It

ICE raided a meatpacking plant. More than 500 kids missed school the next day (CNN)Jessica Bailiff looked out at her class and saw empty desks where her students were supposed to be. The physics teacher's heart sank. She knew why they weren't there. The day before, federal authorities had swept through a nearby meatpacking plant, rounding up nearly 100 people they accused of being in the United States illegally. Immigrant rights groups say last week's operation in eastern Tennessee was the largest workplace immigration raid in a decade. More than 500 students stayed home from school the next day. Now, a week later, most are back in class. ----- 100 workers detained. 500 kids attending school. And people still pretend that illegal immigrants are net contributors to the economy.

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Pushing Prices Past Practical

From the Village of Wrightwood, CA we find an example of price and quality not even close.

1744 Irene St Wrightwood, CA 92397
$210,000  Listed at Price  2Beds  1Bath

675 Sq. Ft.  $311 / Sq. Ft
 The only plus factor is a 6,000 sf lot, but that is on a corner and one of the busier streets and the low side of the street.  Why someone is paying $300+/sf is hard to fathom.  Even the "one bath" is actually a three-quarters bath.

Monday, April 09, 2018

April Showers

10AM at the Dawghaus 76°F.  I don't think that is representative this Spring so far. 

Thursday, April 05, 2018

Trade Deficit in Two Pictures

The A'zon wants this to be your directed "click." $14.30 but FREE SHIPPING!

This is what you can get if you are willing to wait a few weeks from China.  

This is why we have a trade deficit.  Middleman US greed and monopoly. 

Full disclosure.  I have multiple orders for the Chinese product.  I consider this a patriotic gesture. 

How NOT to Upgrade

It's one thing to update and modernize.  It is entirely a different thing to price yourself out of the neighborhood.  Follows is an example of over improvement.

5475 Acorn Dr, Wrightwood, CA 92397

2 beds 1 bath 900 sqft

For Sale
Zestimate®: $290,565

For comparison and probably what the before picture looked like:

1600 Barbara St, Wrightwood, CA 92397

2 beds 2 baths 972 sqft

Off Market
Zestimate®: $236,194

Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Not such a good deal

The Audi TT is a cute sportster.  When I saw this craigslist ad  I was interested.  Then...  Read the description:

> Selling a 2002 Audi roadster convertible 1.8 liter TT S, AWD turbo. Has 225 hp and is very quick.

 So far so good.

> Vehicle is not registered and has engine light on due to after market intake.

 Ooops.  Engine light AND will never pass emissions.  Thousands to fix. 

> Goes through a lot of coolant because of the turbo but you can just add water to compensate.

Ummm....  OMFG.  Cracked block and water fixes it?  

> Has a salvage title. Drives perfect and minor exterior damages.

Not even good for body parts.  

> Got new tires and breaks about 8 months ago.

 Hey.  I want to buy from a guy who thinks brakes are breaks. 

> Uses 91 octane fuel and gets around 30mpg

 At this point I'm surprised it drives far enough to measure fuel economy. 

> Selling because I have a large dog that can't fit in the car so I can't take her anywhere ;( $3,900 obo.

Yeah.  Right.  

Strange times. 

Monday, April 02, 2018

Montecito Mudslide Costs

State Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones released an update on the status of insurance claims. Jones says insurance companies have received more than 2,000 claims, totalling just over $421 million dollars.
The January 9th disaster killed 23 people, and destroyed or damaged more than 400 homes and businesses.

And in a notable position the insurance commissioner also said to insurance companies that they would not be able to exclude claims from people who had fire insurance, but didn’t have flood insurance. He says because the fire set the stage for the flooding and debris flows, the fire is the ultimate cause.