Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Haha... Is This a joke?

Our intrepid Nega-Hero thinks he is responding thusly:
12 - (5) Seek out a medical health professional

Haha… Is this a joke?

I posted to moderation;

No. Why would anyone, hater, sycophant, trainwreck observer, anyone be this flippant? You are up, you are down, you have erratic sleeping patterns, you are easily distracted, impulsive, ... there's a long list. I have deleted the rest of the list to save you the time you do not have in editing it. This "advise" above is clearly heartfelt, honest and sincere. I'm thinking Adderall, Stratera and Focalin, possibly lithium or stronger. I'm thinking those last because I just visited your updated spreadsheet. You have broken through the $600,000 barrier and continue to "loose" ground at least $800/day. Deleting the $50k Countrywide note didn't make it go away did it? Due tomorrow? $417, 15jj.

But there are those days when the pressure gets to be too much and I am ready to Chapter 7 all the debt away.

Just to be clear. Not all the debt goes away. Say it: "I, Casey Serin, will be held responsible for any taxes and penalties and accrued interest of such for any debt forgiveness in addition to any debt incurred in the 6 months prior to bankruptcy and any notes I signed outside of the bankruptcy process." You are facing a dismal post bankruptcy future. "All the debt away" is more of the evidence some people cite when suggesting medical evaluation.
Okay, you wanted updates without going there. This is it. Let loose the dawgs of war.

Are There No Poorhouses?

Earlier we discussed how many miscreants we need to deal with. That raises the obvious question; What are we gonna do with them all? We can't kill them, we don't even want to as we need them to keep busting butt to pay us back. We certainly don't want them locked up either for the same financial reason. Likewise they cannot get a free passas that would only set us up for a worse problem far sooner than any could expect.

I'm thinking tax surcharge. Any thoughts?

Nueva Kalifornia

After the revolution I plan on using San Luis Obispo as my new Capital of El Centro de Kalifornia. Stretching from San Vincente Blvd at the base of the Pacific Palisades to my future summer Palace at San Simeon, encompassing the Santa Monica Mtns., Santa Lucia Range, San Rafael Mtns inland to as far as Taft, my benevolent dictatorship will rule in peace and prosperity. After the rotting corpses of any remaining lawyers are dealt with my first act will be to outlaw public transit. My second act will be to replace all these damn compound Spanish place names. Henceforth Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will be simply known
as "Babs and Larry."

Regards from the exile HQ in Camarillo"
I remain your,
El Supremo de Nueva Kalifornia

How Many More Like Him?

The mortgage fraud blog is full of them. First payment defaults commonplace. Hummers in the driveway. Funbags in the trophy wife. RE CDs on the bookshelf 401ks in the fourplex in Compton. How many cockroaches are there?

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Fat, Forty and Failure

Ogg make good point. Ogg say; Robert, if you're reading this far, may I propose a new post topic? Suppose the best-case scenario, that Casey files for bankruptcy and manages to get all his debts discharged, takes place. Where does everyone see Casey in 10-15 years?

Only $19.70 per square inch
Single Family Property County: Ventura Subdivision: Hollywood Beach Year Built: 1940 2 total bedroom(s) 1.5 total bath(s) Approximately 1128 sq. ft. Waterfront property Approximately 0.06 acre(s)

$3,195,000. Oxnard no less. Any questions?

There's Gonna Be A Beatin'

There's an old joke about a sadist and machocist who go out on a blind date. Things go well and at the door the machocist turns to the sadist and says "I want you to hurt me." The sadist with and evil grin replies "No."

Moral: Don't give Casey what he wants most; attention.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Home Mortgage Interest Deductions

Recent readers are not familiar with older posts. For instance:

gordo suggested;

"Here's a very easy fix - end the mortgage interest deduction and capital gains exemption. The whole sleazy industry goes away in a heartbeat. I'm a renter - I'm fine with that. Any home owners want to get on board?"

The HMID (Home Mortgage Interest Deduction) has been explained many times but here it is again.

The Home Mortgage Deduction is -not- a subsidy. The HMID serves to remove the difference between business and private property treatment. Were the HMID to be reduced for typical families it would only serve to push the rich into complex tax avoidance schemes involving shell businesses holding title and the rich merely occupying the residence.

As long as the home mortgage interest deduction is viewed as a subsidy and not as the extra tax anti-investment burden it truly is there can be no rational housing policy debate.

The implication behind all this is that there exists outside of stated and revealed preference data a "correct size" for a residence. I'm as unwilling to presume such an arbitrary number as I am to presume the correct number of children. Face it, the two differ only in degree not kind. This is the steep part of the slippery slope that started with CAFE standards and gas guzzler vehicle taxes. People don't even blink at those anymore to the point that no doubt some will respond with anger.

McMansions are indeed a burden on previously constructed neighborhoods and oftentimes municipalities but they are burdens directly attributable to several new urbanist preferred outcome distortions and not some emotional gut response to any perceived excess. Tax policy isn't the problem or solution. West Germany used to tax propety based on the number of rooms, this led to homes with no closets which were classified rooms. The same avoidance schemes are the only predictable outcome of trying to control housing form.

Housing is a hybrid of both a consumable product and an investment vehicle and thus defies absolutist claims of either characteristic. Any further attempt to seperate the two will also devolve into a game of tax avoidance. As much as the current no limits deduction is unfair it is also less unfair than any other possible alternative.

That's the HMID. The Capital Gains exemption is a different story. I suspect, that's suspect, that if it were truly about one's primary residence there would be no problem. The problem is the abuse of the intent. My solution is subtle.

The Cap Gains exemption applies to people who have occupied their home 2 of the last 5 years.
Should be:
The Cap Gains exemption applies to people who have occupied their home 2 of the last 5 years OF OWNERSHIP.

Viva! la REvolucion!

I'm getting the sense that everyone watching are all running out of patience. I don't know if it is conscious or not but it seems like "he's had his 6 months, time to give him a push" is the new paradigm. Likewise there's no more benefit of the doubt vice "supporters" aka enablers. There's certainly no love lost on the Real Estate priesthood nd their arcane practices.

Are we on the edge of a social/politial movement? One where business ethics are the new liberty, equality and fraternity? Of course it will be more of the "I'm mad as hell and I'm not gonna take it anymore" variety. I sense people here are no longer content to allow the Caseys, Nigels, Chris', ablebuyers, mortgage liars, high flyers to continue their shady dealings. After all why in this day and age should buying a house be much more complicated than a used car? Title Insurance? What's up with that? Either the seller can rightfully sell or there's no sale. Doc fees? The County doesn't charge more than a few bucks. I can go online and order a GE jet engine or locomotive. It's time . [N.B. the image is the storming of the Bastille but the sound track is Talking Heads - Burning Down the House]

Sunday, January 28, 2007

What's Up With Nigel?

Frankly, for a while I was ot paying attention to the sniping going on with Nigel. It didn't seem important until I discovered that he as a liscienced mortgage broker didn't think Casey was commiting any more crimes. This was my "WTF?" moment. Below my exchange awaiting moderation on his site:

1. The owner change was reported. It was even recorded by the title company with the county recorder's office when the wrap took place. It's a public record the lender can look up at any time.

Now I am begining to understand some of the comments I am seeing elsewhere. Casey hasn't reported the wrap to his lenders, that's why he was notified when the checks were not getting through. It isn't up to the lender to check title. It is up to Casey to notify and he admits he did not.

2. No it isn't. It can simply trigger the due on sale clause which the lender may or may not exercise.

Please get your facts straight before you accuse people of crimes they haven't committed.

Your opinions are noted. Your opinions might someday prove inconvienient should you find yourself caught up in a witch hunt as the mortgage lending industry implodes and bumbling prosecutors cast about for public examples.

Accusing me of not having the facts just because you disagree was unnecessary and inflamatory. But that probably explains your feeling the need to vet comments. People who are comfortable with their positions don't need to control all sides of the conversation.

Does everyone have the same bad feeling when a mortgage broker doesn't see anything wrong with wrapping a mortgage and not telling the lienholder? What if he's telling his clients this on wraps he's brokering? What if thousands of brokers are doing the same?

Sunday Morning on EN with your Host

A slight change of pace. While searching for a smarmy description of the animal that best matches our subject, I stumbled upon the exact opposite. Very sweet short story with morals and everything.

Salt on a Magpie's Tail
A Swedish folktale adapted from a fairytale by Anna Walenburg
as told by Eldrbarry
Once there was a boy who was always wishing for things. A bike, a sled, a house with a yard, even a cheap clasp knife. His father had died, and the farm had been foreclosed on by the bank. His mother was a poor woman, living in a run-down rooming house, making brooms for a living at minimum wage. So none of his wishes ever came true.

Read the rest...

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Why Bother?

Interesting topic. Over at IAFF "SacRealtor" suggests:

Robert Coté: You must know by now that Casey does not listen to a single thing you say.

He tries to listen but the story isn't about Casey and hasn't been for a long time. I don't post or blog for any one person's benefit. I post for an understanding of the surrounding issues. Since Casey started blogging 16 subprime mortgage brokers have closed. Countrywide has reduced their workforce in my county by 1400 and is in rescue talks with BofA. Gee, you think that housing prices in my area down 5.9% y-o-y and 1400 white collar layoffs are related? You think Countrywide and the bad loans Casey used with them are related? You think? I knew backin Sept what the macroresults of Young Casey's adveenture would be. I don't stop speaking truth just because those who could benefit most don't like the answer. Likewise justice delayed is justice denied so I'll be posting this same comment elsewhere and have 30 good observations in anyone interesting manages a the replies before Young Casey gets around to approval. And by the time someone posts a reply in the next round of moderation the realtime discussion will have moved on four more posts.

Mouse? Yes But... OUR Mouse!

Seems the consensus is that Young Casey is being abused by the no ethics ladies of Arizona. Interesting that everyone involved, Casey, Duane, Amy, Erin all live in bubbletowns? This is an important factor in the coming decline. The technical types here recognonize hetrodyne in the market. Feedback that self reinforces until it explodes. Casey isn't crashing Excremento singlehandedly any more than the terror twins are together solely responsible for Phoenix headed to the ashes. They are bit players but players nonetheless. Remember these people were constantly "bird dogging" properties, the scare pair are still on the hunt. This creates a perception of latent demand that never existed. The smart guys over at Calculated Risk figure anywhere from 900,000 to 2.2 million "extra" dwelling units. I'm towrds the high end for the record. Seems pretty clear that demographics are going to reverse the trend of lower occupant density. An increase of 0.1 persons per dwelling unit equals 5 million fewer homes needed in the future. You know, like Casey and Galina moving in with parents? Or cellblocks?

Anyway, the picture and the situation with the gruesome twosome. He's our chew toy/squeaky mouse/kitty treat and they can't have him (until we're done with him at least).

Friday, January 26, 2007

Is He Up? Is He Down?

Booooring. A few minutes ago there was a blogjacking. Up/down, does anyone care? I want blood, gore, content.

Same Dog, Same Tricks

Casey's "new" post is a rehash of stuff we already knew and posted and hashed to death. Turns out he doesn't understand the value of freshness and new content after all. And of course the comment rating system is no longer. It is kind of comporting that he can compartmentalize like this. I'd have used this opportunity to do something like save my ass or my wife or my family. No, he manages to focus on arranging the tea cozzies on the Captain's Table of the Titanic.

Here's my comment awaiting moderation at IAFF:

Casey, after you handle all this important stuff in a timely, professional and through manner I hope you have a little energy left over to get around to some of the tangential side issues like saving the taxpeayers hundreds of thousands cleaning up after you adventures, saving your marriage by tell G everything, minimizing criminal exposure by telling your criminal lawyer everything, minimizing your civil exposure by telling your bankruptcy lawyer everything,... you know the side issues.

Comment Moderation On (48-72hrs)

Just kidding. The Girl Scout cookie policy is at:
We live close to Pt. Mugu which also hosts a National Gaurd Airlift Command. The cookies will get there by arrangement and not regular service delivery.

Withdrawl or Capitulation?

Somewhere deep in a pile of unopened mail sits an envelope, an envelope from gator hosting services. Probably has "open immediately" and "past due" somewhere on the front.
Down:,, IAFF. Good news: still works. I knew that $2.24 was a good investment. Feel free to speculate away. Maybe Casey could even post a quick note.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Safe Browsing

Hasn't everyone run screaming from IE 6? There isn't enough evidence yet to say IE 7 is bad and it is certainly much better than IE 6 but with all the choices why is anyone clicking into here with IE 6? Scary.
The recent housing news hasn't been terrible thus a spate of upbeat outlooks. I don't believe it in my gut but my gut isn't a smart investor so I'll wait for the Feb DOM and inventory numbers.

Dwayne. In Deep or Just Gullible?

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Blogger*Blogspot Issues

At least our hero was there. 12 plus hours of intermitent service and we all get bent. Honest; not me. I made some money, cleaned my new office and dug dirt. No sweet deals, no new contacts, no groundwork. Just the bow bow bow part of bow wow. Casey has let thru a number of interesting comments. I think he's beginning to understand the concept of "eyeballs." Progress? I don't know.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Market Alert Casey Mania Reaches All Time High

Wow. I mean just wow. Somebody grab the butterfly net and the jacket with the 110" extra long sleeves. Latest Casey fragment:

Endgame Observer…. what do I bring to the table? I believe I have been blessed by my Maker with an intense curiosity and the ability to spot opportunities (and being in the right place and the right time or the WRONG place at the WRONG time depending on context).

Currently I am in the position to bring BIG opportunities/deals to the table and bring key people together. How?

I have made lots of interesting contacts through having so much exposure. People email me on a daily basis with opportunities. I actually have too many. Everyday I open my inbox and mine my emails for gold nuggets of opportunities and the makings of a sweet deal.

Even this connection with Duane and of House Buyer Network and Real Estate Investors .TV for example… it sort of just presented itself without me having to actively pursue it. (Thanks to John of

How about my meeting with Robert Kiyosaki (Thanks to PrLinkBiz of No matter what you think of RK, it’s a rare thing to be able to talk to that guy in person. What about that old deal with the East Coast mentor? Sure I screwed that deal up but that’s not the point.

The point is opportunities just come to me. It’s kind of magical. I just have to be careful to take advantage of it properly. Sometimes I have to go with my gut, other times my gut is too impulsive so I have to go with my logic. Sometimes both.

I can’t take the credit though, I was just writing my story and not even asking for any of this exposure. However, when the exposure came I ran with it…. and still running.

A good friend of mine told me that starting this blog was the single worst AND the single best thing I could have done.

The idea of starting this blog came to me back in late August 2006 and I seized the moment and launched it within days. From the very start I have been brutally honest (sometimes too honest in a naive way) and the blog become controversial and caught on fire in the media. Now this blog is opening all kinds of doors. It’s a crazy adventure!

Having said all that, I have several good things in the works but nothing is solid enough to really speak of. Every opportunity takes time to put together and lots of “putting the pieces together” in a creative way.

That’s why my ideal job would be to devote 100% of my attention to establishing connections, identify opportunities, and putting together deals on high level - brainstorming and making a rough draft.

Once there is a draft, it goes to the professionals and bean-counters to spot holes in my ideas so we can improve upon it until we have a sweet plan. Then we delegate the execution of the plan to people who are highly trained in each particular area.

That’s how I see myself operating. So I need to surround myself with really smart and capable people who genuinely care for me and whose advice I can trust. Building such a team will be one of the keys to moving forward.

Man I wrote a whole essay….

So to sum it up…. here is what I bring to the table: creativity, curiosity and a positive attitude to spot opportunities and make connections and then the courage (or naivety) to take opportunities head on.

Man he owes me a new keyboard.

Lordy, Lordy... I Am SAVED!

The radio beam from Caseyworld™ transmitted the following:

Now some updates on Modest foreclosure:

Talked with Larry the Modesto agent and he said the lender is unwilling to negotiate with him because the authorization to release information I signed doesn’t look legitimate. So I had to call and give them verbal permission to allow my agent to negotiate on my behalf.

Also Larry was told yesterday that they will usually need a non-refundable fee which equals to a month’s payment to delay the auction tomorrow. I told him I don’t have any money so he is going to try to have the buyer pitch in.

We have a strong cash buyer who is offering 270 and is ready to close as soon as title can do the paperwork. So at this point I’m waiting to her from Larry to see how it goes.

We’re talking 11th hour type of stuff here. I wish I would have found out about Larry earlier. So far he has been working very hard to get this thing through. I appreciate hard work when I see it.

$270k doesn't make the primary whole. Casey is insane to think the second who holds another $75k in paper is gonna sit still for this. Somehow, and this isn't the first time, he thinks getting the 1st to agree to a short sale is all he needs.

Let's Play Doctor

I'm no doctor. I don't even play one in the blogosphere but opinions are like sex everybody has one. The graphic is from one of the best albums nobody's ever heard of; Fig. 15 by Human Sexual Response. I actually saw them in concert. But enough about culture and junk as the Beav would say. Casey could keep a team of abnormal psychologist candidates knee deep in theses for a lomg time. We've heard everything from meth head to latent homsexual homophobic to manic depressive. Me? I waver depending on which of my personalities is dominate at the moment but right now Peter Pan Syndrome mixed with cultural dissonance.
A medical degree from an "accredited" "univerity" will be awarded to anyone who responds and pays a nominal shipping $ handling charge. Make cheks payable to Nouveau Medical Institute. "Nouveau where if you have a dream we have a certificate."

Monday, January 22, 2007

Casey Monday (a little chastened)

Thanks for the top 5 advice from last post… I think I will create a whole separate post with my answers… I just need to read through everybody’s stuff and figure out the master top 5 list from the advice that was mentioned the most often.

Casey, don't you remember? It wasn't advice you were looking for. It was 5 examples of good advice you had ignored. Focus, follow through and report. Yes, people are going elsewhere to follow your story but that shouldn't matter as the opportunity to monetize your blog and/or story has passed. At that you are still pursuing actions that indicate you intend to monetize your situation. Sound familiar? Good idea -> late entry -> blown opportunity -> lost interest -> next big idea. Your behavioral characteristics were set down at age 14 with that Ponzi letter.

Speaking of opportunity, an example; Cool. I liked the idea registered to Chris BTW, so much I bought Cost me $2.24. Why would you let someone else own and why would you let the dot info go uncovered? Let's see, buy low sell high? How about $10? No, better; a note for $10 payable in 10 monthly payments at 0%. Why would I do this? As a listed creditor I'd be sent any notices generated by the courts. The savings in photocopying alone will be worth hundreds.

Top O' The Blog 01.26.07

The domain now redirects here. Shortly I will update this to link directly to Casey relevant articles only. In the mean time enjoy as we enter a new week. Hey, if your week doesn't start with a weekend you've got your prior issues as much as Casey does. ;-)

Casey vs. Coffee

I'm sure we will be seeing a lot of "Casey v. xxx" in the near future but I've got to admit something. I wake up and hit a few sites first thing rather than stumble into the kitchen for some tea or coffee. It doesn't help that we've been locked in the worst and longest cold spell in decades. Not like the hard freeze of '97 that killed citrus trees but near every night in the 30s and damn few days that make 70. So, instead of taking the long trip to other end of my classic California rambling ranch I just get the ole' heart a'pumpin' with the latest outrage.

So, how many of you are willing to admit to an innocent "habit?"

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Generic Security "Advise"

A serious subject, I shouldn't be so flippant. It has been noted by the more savvy amongst us that visiting IAFF can be a dangerous affair. I can do anything about your blood pressure or beverages spayed all over your screen but maybe these suggestions can be of use to keep your computer safer.

First the situation: Some people report rouge install attempts when visiting Casey's sight. I doubt it is explicit in his code. He doesn't have the skills. I'd suspect some piece of borrowed code or an external reference. Doesn't matter and I'm not gonna muck around in his codeworld for the same reason I don't need to study hydrocarbon chemistry to fill my gas tank. [I did study hydrocarbon chemistry and used it to beat the PA but that's a different story.] The point is respond appropriately.

If you still have only a PC there's a few "shoulds" and a few "musts."

You must not use IE6.
You should not use IE7.
You should use Firefox.

You should consider adblock, zonealarm, noscript. Not everyone always needs all 3.
You must use ad-aware or similar.

Now for a controvertsial recommendation. A hardware firewall. Software firewalls don't work. Software firewalls are a Microsoft product or MS approved product, 'nuff said? Understand, Win xx is an insecure product BY DESIGN. That is not criticism, it is just a statement of technical specifications. orget any of that if it annoys you or even if you disagree. Just think of a hardware firewall as belt AND suspenders or as a performance upgrade. That's the other thing, sofware firewalls, anti-virus, and other system level protections rob cycles. XP with Norton's and built-in firewall, and you don't know how many times I've seen this; plus MacaFee runs at half speed. Nevermind the cash money costs and time to keep them running.

Firefox with javascript off behind a hardware firewall is reasonably secure. It is also easily repaired and fast. It isn't just about secure but how much of your life you want to dedicate to upkeep.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Beware of the Babushkas

Everyone should be aware by now that our hero has a trusty partner; Young Galina whom he still refuses to be named in his trusty blog. We've since learned she's up to her hips in this with him. "Managing" properties, directing rehabs. Besides, who's taking his picture?

Friday, January 19, 2007

Do We Have A Runner?

For all his talk Casey is not facing his problems. And now with his last round of posts I detect that moment of clarity just before doing something final. Talk of Vancouver. Getting affairs in order.

So, what do you think? Do we have a runner?
[Retroactive HatTip to GameOver who had the same thoughts.]

Top O' The Blog

Place to shout out or just say hi on all things not Casey. Anything Serin and related trainwreck comments will be deleted!

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Disturbing News...

Casey teases us with "As for the bankruptcy attorney… I am hoping to have an update on that soon.. I found out something disturbing from him." Possibilities:

1. I got your wife pregnant.
2. The DA served a warrant on your file and no, privledge does not apply.
3. U B Fooked
4. All your Jetta belonging to me.
5. You'll need that hat where they're sending you.
6. Do the words Gulag and Patriot Act means anything to you?
7. Bubba stopped by to say "hi."
8. The SEC and FTB got into a wicked bitchslap in my office.
9. Prblinkbiz owns your ass. No, they -own- your -ass-. Didn't you think their insisting on a signature in blood was a little strange?

Go wild.

It's All Their Fault! Is Not! Is Too!

Boomer, Cusper, X or Y? Who will survive the Exurban Nation Generational Bitch Slapdown?

[Disclaimer. I'm a Cusper. We get crammed into the tail end of the boomers but it doesn't fit. - Rob Dawg]

Okay,the rules. Screw the rules. Rules is for loosers. Get the freakin' ear bud out of your thick lazy ass skull and whine your best about how this or that generation is screwing you over personally like at no other time in history.

Monday, January 15, 2007

So, Casey is tired about talking about his problems. Now most of us would then decide to do something about our problems. Not Casey, he decides he needs new and bigger problems... err... challenges:

The first dozen unmoderated replies were interesting enough. Sure to go downhill from here. Not me. I told him to STFU and get back to fixing his old problems. Then I did the thing many of us have been considering. I ratted him out/ The letter I sent to Wordpress immediately afterward:
This guy has admitted to multiple frauds and worse in Real Estate scams and now has set up shop on wordpress. I know you aren't "responsible" for content or the actions of your users but we also see everyday how houses are confiscated even though the landlord had no way to know the tenant was running a drug lab.

This is a case of better safe than sorry.

New deadpool. How long before "buyingapartmentbuildings" is pulled? I'm guessing 11:00AM Mon Jan 15 (PST).

Update 8:40AM:
Casey "forgot" to turn on moderation so the first 20 comments were hilarious. "Caset's Mom," "Casey's Wife," a whole raft of characters posted. But Casey wiped them and imposed moderation. Glad I saved mine above. I also my next comment awaiting approval:
Wow, that took what? A few dozen minutes to see the comments and act to protect your reputation and clean up the mess? In those few minutes a half dozen people clicked over on my name. You sure have developed a following desperate for any solid information as to your situation and latest adventures.

Were that you would act as fast on other more important issues.

Anyway, Casey is "surprised" that so many "haters" tracked his actions and got to the site so soon. Gee, the guy gets 3000 hits an hour and has every major law enforcement agency flagging his IP and he's surprised?!?

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Riverpark Update IV Cart Before the Horse

Remember Riverpark is supposed to built on new urbanist smart growth principles. Unfortunately the housing bubble popping has left Oxnard with ll the residents and none of the mixed use. That means these ultra high density homes will be generating twice the VMT the planners predicted. Dumb growth, dumb Oxnard, evil planners.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

UC Davis?

WTF? Casey posits:

"Have 12K set aside for a year of school at UC Davis which she will transfer to in the summer."

Ummm, no. Really, no. The UC system makes CashCall look like a doting daddies' advance on allowance when it comes to their money. They smell fraud faster than Sputnik smells two week old ahi on a bed of calamari offal.

My HS Junior daughter is planning on UCD as one of her first choices. When I say no it isn't just Mrs G getting in "for a year" (not) starting this summer (not) if you can scrape together (not) the $12,000 (not) expenses. So, when I say no, it is not a prediction, it is a promise. If I'm gonna be slappin' down 17 large plus living expenses for three years (she's smart like her mom) then I'm sure as heck not gonna carry your bad debts as well.

Casey, you do understand that by the start of the summer term you'll be needing about $120,000 before the $12,000 comes available? Education is an investment, you have no investment funds available and I do not give you permission to use my daughters'.

Riverpark Update III

This post was supposed to be about traffic, VMT and vehicle accomodation. This first picture is one of several "roundabouts" or "traffic circles" or more properly "rotaries" the FHWA be damned. I grew up in a town with real rotaries. They've served generations with speedier traffic. Oxnard unfortunately drank the MUHD SmUGLER kool-aid. This picture speaks a thousand words. How comfortable are you with what's happening? The place is freakin' empty and you already brace for getting T-boned should you dare enter the circle of destruction.

Not scary enough? Version 2:

Two lanes of entering disaster. People in CA don't know how to work these things. Oxnard is also, how shall I say? Ummm, more beset by unvetted drivers than average.

But like I said, this isn't about traffic. Look past the rotary. What do you see? The Mixed use development that will be there? In this market? If it ain't broken ground it won't for a very long time. That next what's being built.

Casey is his own best poster

Man I am spending WAAAY too much time on comments here.

Gee, Beaver. Ya think?

I really need a solid plan to...

So far so good. Casey does need a solid plan.

outsource moderation

Oooops spoke too soon. Is this a new disease? Netism? Like Autism, Netism exhibits withdrawl from reality and inappropriate responses to stimuli.

once I really get going with my goal.

Is parole before 35 a goal? Casey's goals are no longer his own. He is owned by his debt.

I love all you guys but I can’t be distracted.

Casey can be distracted by CashCall popup ads.

This goal is for real. Too bad WordPress doesn’t make it easy for me to give somebody a “comment moderation” account and an ability for me to audit it.

Okay, we'll assume "this goal" means assigned moderating which is easy, Casey just doesn't know it. Just like all the real issues, what you don't know is what kills you.

One idea - do weekly interactive podcasts with updates and let you guys call-in at the end. As long as you guys don’t bring up too much about In-n-Out, Jamba Juice, Macaroni Grill, etc (a little bit is OK)

I vote for "What if they gave a trainwreck and nobody watched?"

Friday, January 12, 2007

T-Minus 9 Months to Our Goals, Post them here

Nota Bene: This is "Knuckles" the real cat. 18 pounds. Note no fat. This is what I imagine Sputnik was like before all the Bill The Cat drugs and Death Tunge head banging.

So. By Sept 10th 2007 I hope to have been able to redeploy my liquid investment assets into a depressed stock market and have cemented my reputation for prescience. My goal of having a top 100 weblog will have to be changed as since signing up this morning I've gone from obscurity to number 96 [Update: Fri nite #87, Sat morn #74, Sat afternoon #68, Sat nite #64 and asymptotic towards about 55 but I suspect another 10 places after entering a full cycle]. That little blue tag to the right. I want my office finished. It's gonna be bitch cold tonight, a hard freeze and the roof is not insulated yet. I want the office clean and my tools organized. New walkway. New patio. Iceberg rose garden and Korea grass on the upper level of the property. Landscape the lower level and middle hillside. For those interested I live on the side of a hill overlooking a golf course; street level, upper hillside, house pad, middle hillside, lower level, lower hillside. Multiyear project. Fun.

Oh, and I want Knuckles to poop in Casey's shoes.

Wake Up

rrrrring. Good morning Mr. Serin, this is a friendly wake up call. It's a chilly 5:55AM and we here at Countrywide have been following you activites for quite some time as your sitemeter so faithfully records. Anyway, seeing as you are already up an' at 'em we were wondering if you could get around to the small matter of the half mil you owe us? We here at Countrywide understand priorities. Sure, A-Bull-Buyer is taking up a lot of your valuable time so we want to help. What say you slip us a quick $40k or so from the coffee can out in the backyard and we'll keep this between us. No need get cell block warden to wake you up when we can just... now, now Mr. Serin. Rushing out the back door half in your clothes like that. It's not necessary. The coffee cn is safe. We have someone watching it for you. His name is "Tiny" and he's sitting here next to me in the nondescript sedan across the alley. Just one of the extra services we here at Countrywide like to do for our special clients.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Casey is a Little Slow

I know I’m a little slow with moderation

Gee Beaver, ya think?

I was busy talking to a BK attorney today

I call BS. You know why? Because if you were with an attorney of any kind you'd never post again.

and another adviser.

BS #2. You have dozens of the planets' best for free. Not one would meet you in person. Not one could afford the risk. Even if you met with an advisor with an o any one of them worth the time would run so fast you couldn't touch their shadow.

Comments will be released by tomorrow morning.

Snigger. SELECTED comments... Right?

Muncy property is going up for auction. With all the craziness lately, that caught me by surprise.

Huh? Why? Because you ain't been paying? Because you brg bout cash back? Where was the surprise here sport?

I bet that notice is somewhere in the pile of mail.

Gee, Beaver, yah think? Best case, what would you do in response to someone owing you money and not even being reachable?

You cannot answer the phone or door or open the mail. What about all this doesn't have sphincter factor seven written all over it?

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Riverpark Update II

Riverpark is my candidate poster child for the Great SoCal housing bust. It has everything going wrong. In coming posts I'll show the stupid traffic circles, outrageous Mello-Roos, excessive HOA dues, covenants, density mitigation and more. But to start the old cliche: A picture is worth a thousand words. Graphitti from one of the gangs attempting to claim Riverpark as their territory.

Stalking the Wild Serin

N.B. This is our half-a-cat. More of a squirrel ona a bad hair day but the girls love her. She's pictured and this post is inspired by earlier posts today and her actions this morning. She got one of those little fake fur mouses and grabbed it and tossed it around and kept herself entertained. Didn't matter that it wasn't a real mouse, still fun. Thus I will try a little experiment and mirror some Casey posts and a few select replies. We can play with it here and not worry about our fake mouse stinking up the place or trying (hah!) to fight back.

Oh, and another thing. "Gordy" here has a brain the size of a walnut and as much common sense as a rutabagga. See the parallel?

The Twelve Days of Serin

On the twelfth day of Serin my broker gave to me:

12 twisted tales
11 ignored opportunities
10 tangential distractions
8 Housing hellholes
7 Snivelling sycophants
6 howling haters
5 fuuucked uppp fliiips
4 future foreclouses
3 blue balls
2 bipolar episodes
annnnd a sweet ride into bankrputcyyyyy....

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Riverpark Update I (reposted)

I don’t “hate” Riverpark. Riverpark is a travesty, Riverpark is an example of excess in the bubble. Riverpark is a sad commentary on dysfunctional municipal processes. Lots more. I go on on my pathetic blog tomorrow. Oh and the newspaper reports the Riverpark disaster in progress today in order to get out in front of my reportage.

Visited the welcome center and registered. This will be interesting to watch it play out.

The friendly sales associate had me all to herself as i was the only visitor at this 2600 unit megaproject. The literature was silent but the salesperson vollunteered that the Mello-Roos is 30yrs, 0.8%. Thus $800/yr per $100k added to costs. Additionally, HOAs run from $200/mo for townhomes to $100/mo for SFRs. Thus $2400-$1200/yr TCO.

I'd guess the median sales price is $600k given the sales sheet provided with $1800 HOA and 1.9% tax bills. $100k down, $500k @ 6.2% and PITI will be about $3100 + $1000 + $200 = $4400/mo.

The entire site is supposedly 700 acres with 1/3rd open space, 3 schools, fire station, roads, 2600 DU. Hyperdensity. Hyperscary. I say supposedly because I've never seen so much public space dedication. Not just wide, winding streets but rotaries (traffic circles) and huge cul-de-sac bulbs. The developers read like a rouges gallery; SP, Centex and Shea. The construction looked adequate but the short driveways told me parking was going to be an issue in places. Previous posts already addressed ingress/egress. I didn't have the heart to ask about sales rates. It is too early anyway. Any sales were surely to contractors or other interested parties.

Housing Dada Mixed

This is the froth I warned about. Prices both wishing and selling are going to be all over the place. The large and dynamic inventory will make for a cloudy market. The small number of sales will increasingly include exceptions rather than regular sales closings. The shift to buyers market will leave some sellers unable to cope and thus escrows will be messy. Buyers will increasingly dictate terms; fast close, slow close, etc. In math we call this sparse matrix analysis. I haven't done it but it looks like 5-6 dimensions about 5% populated. Don't sweat the math or try to visualize 5 dimensions. The point is that depending on how you look at it you can detect many patterns. Look at this picture for an example:
The analog of a cresting wave goes quite far. No more rising tide, the wave crests, froth. The biggest wave at the end of an unusually high tide leaves little fishies washed up on the beach and as the tide recedes we see who was swimming naked. It won't be a pretty sight but it won't be a tsunami either although I don't put it past our great leaders to possibly make things worse.

January 9th, 2007 | Robert Coté

Monday, January 08, 2007

Young Casey Sleeps In

Nota bene: The" Young Casey" bit is a take-off of the imortal Douglas Adams "Young Zapphod..." title.

Here we are a day later. Casey was up late, Casey was/is getting sick. The sitemeter is showing declining interest. Besides, today is Monday. Monday is bad for Casey. 2-3 days of shitstorm rains down on Monday. I'd sleep in, I'd feign illness, I'd ... nevermind. I wouldn't. I'm not Casey.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

Young Casey Signs Something

Shhh, Casey is sleeping. He was up past 2:00AM and is getting the flu. It'll be a day or more before he gets round to moderating me and censoring our man Homey.

So, here's what he did. He signed an unsecured promissary note to Countrywide for the difference twixt ashort sale and the outstanding 1st mortgage balance. And these are my replies. The first is up on his blog but like I said, the second will be a long time in posting. Post here for timely discussion.

Wow, did your real estate specialist attorney ever negotiate you a poor deal. You… did… use legal representation… didn’t you? Of course not. If you did you’d have grounds for malpractice. But everything’s turned out okay. The second lets their $75,000 position go with no complaint and no consequences to you. The first gets $239,000 immediately and $420/month for 5 years. They don’t even have to call the $420 income and you needn’t be bothered with deducting the interrest as there is none. Countrywide gets the equivalent of $270k for their $245k owed and some nice buyers gets a house. I’m just surprised that the 2nd leinholder has been so quiescent. How’d you do that Casey? Here’s where you can live up to one of your goals. Educated we unwashed masses who have no idea how to pull this off. Being able to walk away with no issues from 2nd trust deeds would save millions of people from foreclosure or worse.

"I still have a way to back out of it… i think."

Ummmmm, no. You signed it remember? The note wasn't contingent, you just signed an unsecured, unconditional IOU for 50 large. Come Feb 1st you'll owe the original mortgage, the fees and penalties and now an additional $416 if the short sale doesn't record by then. And if you think the second is going to walk on their $75k and o so within the next 2 weeks and the kind of person buying properties like this can complete escrow in two weeks... nevermind. What you believe is irrelevant.

Just so you hear it even if you don't understand; Countrywide did not agree to a short sale. They agreed to discharge a $260k plus penalties mortgage for $240k plus your $50k note. $50k over 10 years for let's say a $30k deficiency is the equivalent of a 12% interest bearing note. They only made it look like 0% so that they cannot be accused of usury in any future proceedings. As a special bonus they managed to move their note out from any cloud of bankruptcy discharge. Countrywide may be in deep doo-doo for even getting involved in our global credit bubble but they weren't stupid in this case.

Based on this binding result you could expect the 2 trust deed holder to demand a similar note in the amount of $80,000 at 0%. Add it up. $240,000 purchase, $50,000 1st, $80,000 2nd equals $370,000 over the next 10 years. Just what they would have recieved had you made payments for 10 years and then sold.

You don't have Larchmont short sale approved. Not by a long shot.

None of this matters. It's 7:30AM. You were up past 2:00AM and now you are getting sick. This day is lost to you as are another $800 at your new burn rate. And when you get to this comment for moderator approval you'll be so intellectually tired it won't stick. Quick look, no swear words, no personal family information revealed... approved. Just like the prblink signing and now Countrywide signing.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Young Casey Plays It Safe

Casey Serin's first crime of record has to be his pyramid scheme at the tender age of 14. You know, the send $1 to the name at the top of the list thingy. That was ten years ago and he has admitted to it even going so far as to acknowledge he was dumb and stupid... THEN.

Mortgage Falcon v2

JimBobJoeBobJim says: Robert, that is effing brilliant. When asking about my idea to "share" equity with stuck FBs. Now there's someone who knows how to stroke ego so I'm devoting an entire post to the answer.

How would I do it? The snarky answer is whatever way screws the mark the most. It's gonna be difficult because the first thought of the FB is that their house is worth far more than I will. So, first, I'll "pay" for an appraisal. You and I know that between the then market and my choice of appraisers and the fact that the FB has been neglecting even simple mantainence and hasn't even cleaned up for a showing that the number is gonna come in heart attack low. OMFG! thinks the FB, he thinks he is totally screwed. Still, the kids are in school, there's no money in the bank and his (and her) job(s) takes all his time. Moving and renting is worse than sticking it out if he can. That's when Robert the Mortgage Falcon (version 2*) swoops down. "Man, all you need is some help until the market turns. You paid $400k and you ain't no dummy. Someone, someday will pay $400k or more again. That's why I'm here. You see, I think you made a great investment, you smart investor type you and I want in on your money machine that's just stalled for the moment."

"Gee, that sounds great Mortgage Falcon v2. How does it work?"

"Simply, safely and the neighbors don't even need to know."

They're hooked and I've got my hooks in the same kind of appreciation that we saw 1996-2006 without having to actually go out and buy something.

The original Mortgage Falcon v1 is at:

Friday, January 05, 2007

A Modest Proposal

Loan originators have been running wild, destroying the economy. Prison time? Witch hunts? Public examples? No, we need to hurt these people. Exactly the way they've hurt us. Force them to disgorge their personal gains.

Mortgage broker goes home to his wife:

"Honey, we need to sell the house."

"God, why?"

"We have to pay back all the money we made on those phony loans."

"OMFG, this IS serious and what do you mean we?"

"Remember that money WE got back when WE closed on this McMansion? That WE. And that's not all. The settlement requires that we only sell to a documented qualifying owner/occupier client with a court authorized independent appraisal so we won't get enough money to pay the fines and pay off the mortgages. We'll owe taxes on the difference."

"Again with the WE..."

"Dearest, remember that vacation to the South Seas? WE can't untake that trip for instance."

"Oh.... and... if we don't?"

"I go to prision."

"Yes, but what's the downside?"

"Hah, hah. Very funny. We have to sell everything and cut to the bone and then cut some more. You are implicated too just like Casey and Galina. There is one problem however."

"Yeah, what?"

"Where are we gonna find an agent to sell this place? All the ones I know are in jail."

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Suggestion Box

Back to more abnormal posts and a new year.

New features being added:

Blogs O'Shame
Blogs O'Note
Unmoderated Casey Posts
Transit Myths by the Numbers
Why Macs? Tracking the OSes
The Riverpark Fiasco