Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Location Discriminatory Mortgages Redux



First what I wrote. OMG more than 8 years ago:

Tuesday, July 06, 2004
 Location Discriminatory Mortgages
I once thought "Location Efficient Mortgages" (LEMs could address the problem of exurban development patterns (e.g. living in Riverside and working in LA) but then my brain started working again. I call location efficient mortgages transit apartheid. "Location efficient mortgage" is like "smart growth." Who would want a location -inefficient- mortgage or who would support dumb growth. Meaningless catch phrases, nothing more. Location Discriminatory Mortgages are the exactly descriptive phrase. Funny how the old VA loan policies that inadvertently used to favor new suburban housing, and jumpstarted the exurban nation trend, were struck down as unfair by the very same people advocating this new version of redlining. (Red Line as in Los Angeles and Boston, etc.) I'm surprised at the willingness of people who claim to want fairness to resort to unequal treatment (LEMs, density bonuses, transit subsidies, tax breaks) as a first step when they agree with the agenda. I'm also concerned about the unintended consequences that always appear. We both know that govt with good intentions ALWAYS results in unanticipated problems. In the case of LEMs; people will buy near transit, use more transit, pay less taxes to local govt and eventually get cars. Result, normal traffic overloading local roads while burdened by higher transit subsidies. In case you haven't noticed I'm describing LEMs in terms of transit but we were talking about POV commute patterns and Prop 13. That's because of two things. First LEMs have been hijacked by transit advocates despite there being no connection. Second, lenders already do a little of this when you apply for a mortgage. They take into account your living costs including travel budgets when determining lending limits.

Now what the New york Times (of course) is pushing:

Factoring in Commuting Costs

MORTGAGE lenders do not figure in a household’s likely commuting costs when weighing loan applications, but a recent study suggests that borrowers of moderate means would be smart to calculate these costs themselves before buying.

The study, published in October by the Center for Housing Policy and the Center for Neighborhood Technology, looked at transportation and housing costs in the 25 largest metropolitan areas. It found that transportation costs rose faster than incomes in every area over the last decade.

That has added to the financial burden shouldered by moderate-income homeowners, defined as households earning 50 to 100 percent of a metropolitan area’s median income. Transportation consumes 30 percent of their income, on average. Add housing costs to that and the combined cost burden rises to 72 percent.
...
The study also found that some metropolitan areas generally considered more affordable than New York become less so after transportation is figured in. For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system.
...
Scott Bernstein, the president of the Center for Neighborhood Technology in Chicago, argues that transportation costs are quantifiable enough that they ought to be factored into underwriting. And they were, during the first half of the last decade, in an experiment the center conducted jointly with Fannie Mae. Called a “Location-Efficient Mortgage,” the product was a contrasting proposition to the “drive till you qualify” strategy of finding an affordable home. The mortgage compensated borrowers applying to buy in areas with lots of transportation choices, and close to jobs and amenities.
...
Tested in a handful of markets before 2007, the mortgages were issued to about 2,000 borrowers and, based on the center’s evaluation of a representative sample, showed a very low default rate. But the experiment ended with the mortgage market collapse.
...
The national calculator could be ready by year’s end. Another calculator developed by the center, called Abogo (abogo.cnt.org), lets people plug in an address and find out what a typical household in that area spends on transportation.

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Unfuggingbelievable. Let's start at the top and tackle other bits in later posts. "For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system." Texas income tax 0%. New York State 6.85%, New York City ~3%. Idiots with calculators and agendas are dangerous.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Falling Kinife Wrightwood


1537 Betty St, Wrightwood, CA
Price history such as it is:
01/17/2012 Listed for sale $159,000 -14.1% $222
07/30/2008 Sold $185,000 -19.2% $258
05/12/2008 Price change $229,000 -8.4% $319
02/19/2008 Listed for sale $249,900 186% $349
10/19/2001 Sold $87,527 -- $122

Last month DQNews reported the village sales as averaging $105/sf.
I'm sure the 2008 knife catchers and current bag holders were sure they had stolen this house at $258/sf. The sad part is that the 2 "bedrooms are more like closets and the single bath is actually a 3/4 bath. See below:

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Slightly Inflated Figures



The NAR today... HEY! The writing is down here not up there.

Any way, the NAR today finally revised heir 2007-present used home sales figures to more closely resemble reality. The reality we've been blogging about for even longer than that.

As usual Calculated Risk has the delicious chart porn. That's "chart porn" stop looking up there. Digging deeper their new methodology is just their old methodology minus mistakes they found. Still useless as a measure.

What we need is a parallel certification process. Certified National Real Estate Professional Association. No political advocacy, no "Suzanne researched this," just a formal process of identifying professionals and an ethics reporting mechanism.

Monday, December 19, 2011

A tale of two FBs

Comparable busters. They aren't just for sales anymore. Neighborhoods that would not have imagined rental units in their midst now find them preferable to empty REOs.

Unfortunately the rental market has the same problem with wishing prices as still does the resale market for used houses.
3xxx-Avenida-De-Autlan

* $3,900/month
* Beds:5 Bed Baths:4 Bath House Size:3,770 Sq Ft Lot Size:0.18 Acres

A tad pricey but a safe neighborhood with an excellent school district. And hey, this is supposedly and $800k neighborhood on a golf course. There's one tiny problem:
2924-Avenida-De-Autlan

* $2,500/month
* Beds:4 Bed Baths:5 Bath House Size:3,531 Sq Ft Lot Size:0.19 Acres

Right around the corner. Ouch.

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Huevos Grande

Give 'em credit. It takes a big pair to bring this one to market:
271 Myrtle Ave Oxnard, CA 93036

$/Sq. Ft.: $223
Lot Size: 0.69 Acres
Property Type: Detached, Modular/Manufactured
View: Other/See Remarks
Year Built: 2000
Community: El Rio / Nyeland Acres
--------------------------------------

What's the big deal? Location, location, location. Here's the aerial:


Best described as "construction adjacent. Bet they don't mention the freeway is being widened. Not that it matters. Look at the sales history:

Mar 23, 2010 Changed $579,000
Feb 16, 2010 Listed $649,000
Dec 02, 2009 Sold $450,000
Jul 13, 1999 Sold $216,000

Nice flip. Fail.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

HELOC I Love You Won't You Sell Me Your Gain?

Today's Ventura County Star has more than seven pages of NOTS (Notice of Trustee's Sale). The prices at roughly $5 million dollars per page. $35m worth of foreclosures in the paper toady alone. Let's look at some:

1291 Newman St Simi Valley CA 93065
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,740 sq ft
06/16/2005: $495,000
NOTS: $719,416.33

1676 Glider Ct Thousand Oaks CA 91320
4 beds, 3.5 baths, 2,742 sq ft
04/10/2002: $472,000
NOTS: $806,195.30

5083 Dodson St Somis CA 93066
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,362 sq ft
12/23/2002: $393,000
NOTS: $766,737.25

All these last sold at prices much lower than the foreclosure price. You have to wonder how many have seconds, HELOCs, thirds, etc. that aren't even counted having already been written off to zero.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Desert Living Large



10131 JENNY St, Hesperia, CA 92344

I said living large. I mean that two ways.
BEDS: 6
BATHS: 4
SQ. FT.: 4,246
$/SQ. FT.: $90
LOT SIZE: 1.86 Acres

Too bad the people who bought it for $282k in January want $382k now.
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 18, 2010 Listed $382,500 -- MRMLS #C10029262
Jan 07, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $284,025 -15.5%/yr Public Records
Feb 04, 2005 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 22.6%/yr Public Records

Good luck with that flippers.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Half Off!


I love my neighborhood and it looks like we'll have some new neighbors at 3153 CalleDe Marejada:

Sprawling Single Story Custom Estate Home, 5 bedrooms, spacious office, 6.5 baths, 3 fireplaces, vaulted ceilings, granite, new stainless steel appliances, crown molding, surround sound speakers, etc. Too many features to list! Awesome backyard featuring covered patios, pool & spa, guest house w/ 2 bedrooms, bath & kitchen, flagstone pathways, pool bath, gazebo and outdoor kitchen island ready to add appliances. 4 car garage with paver motorcourt & half-circle drive.

Date Event Price Appreciation
Mar 10, 2010 Listed $1,599,800 -- VCRDS #10003829
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $1,360,000 -17.3%/yr
Jun 02, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $2,600,000 103.8%/yr
Aug 08, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 1.2%/yr
Oct 13, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $295,000
-----
I did the math. The previous owners lost $1000 per day.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Hope Springs Eternal



Oxnard
Feb 06, 2010 Listed $559,900 -- VCRDS #10002095
Dec 10, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 14.5%/yr
May 29, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 -31.4%/yr
Oct 08, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 5.7%/yr
Nov 16, 1993 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 --

I imagine the 2003 price was a divorce split.

2004-2009 Total assessed value: = $541,708 = $552,542 = $563,592 = $574,863 = $586,359 = $495,000

We'll watch this flip closely. Here are the neighboring zillow comps:

Friday, February 19, 2010

Out Behind the Barn

94 acres near St. Thomas Aquinas College. 4425 Ojai Rd, Santa Paula.
This beautifully rugged property is located about 2 miles north of downtown Santa Paula on Hwy. 150 and is less than a mile south of Steckle Park. Ojai would only be about another 5 miles. There is enough level to rolling area for a small farming operation. Horses and other livestock would be a natural here. Enjoy the Little Red Barn. Use it for storage or a place for you and your family and friends to meet. There are roads to take you through the property and to the tops of the hills to enjoy nature and the panoramic views, including the ocean, Topa Topa and city lights. There is abundant wildlife, which includes: deer, quail, dove, rabbits, etc. Part of the property is on the east side of Highway 150 and actually fronts on Santa Paula Creek. Only minutes to town and about one and a quarter hours to L.A. What a great place for a weekend getaway!!!

Am I forgetting anything? Oh yes. The barn:

Hittin' the ATM




Nice place. Been owned so long that zillow has no sales history. The tax data support this. They are paying a whopping $1492 per year in property taxes. That puts the purchase most likely in the mid 1980s for less than $100,000. Sweet deal eh? Slapping down a $600 mortgage and $80-$120 taxes for 25 years and looking at a balance of ~$25,000. And in 5 years even that car payment sized mortgage goes away. Right? Wrong. Opening bid at auction tomorrow (Feb 19th, 2010): $675,000.
Realtytrac listing.
Zillow for what it's worth(less).

What in the world were these people thinking?

Friday, February 05, 2010

Put Down Your Beverage

I will not be responsible for damaged keyboards.

This gem from nearby Thousand Oaks. Get a load of the description.
Ready for another amazing asset? Well my fellow hardworking agents and brokers this could be the one! Hurry today because we all know there is no inventory and this sweet little nutter butter is priced so well - so don't procrastinate on this jewel - make an offer quick! Those buyers who have been sitting on that unsturdy fence - now is that time to jump in the market - so put the pen to the paper and get r done! This single story home is bursting with many features like a open and neutral interior with clean carpet and tiled entry and baths, updated kitchen, gas stove top, cozy fireplace in the living room, covered patio, 2 car direct access garage, and a sparkling pool with some views from the huge rear yard of the distant mountains. This home will be on the market for a limited time only - you could be the lucky winner - just make us the best offer in which the Seller can't refuse!


And this sweetheart? $/SQ. FT.: $355
Get a load of the curb appeal:

The history:
Jan 09, 2010 Relisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 25, 2009 Delisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 19, 2009 Listed $450,000 -- VCRDS #90020149
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $403,055 -6.7%/yr Public Records
Jun 18, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 32.3%/yr Public Records
Apr 03, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 8.3%/yr Public Records
Aug 06, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $299,000 11.5%/yr Public Records
Dec 02, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 3.7%/yr Public Records
Oct 24, 1991 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 -- Public Records

Got that? Sad. But then I'm not a "fellow hard working agent." What do I know?
886 Camino La Maida
Thousand Oaks, CA 91360


Update:
My new mailbox since the one in the picture is o ugly:

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

La Loma Redux

It's back. La Loma is back on the market.


You'd never know this was once asking for a million.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Hide the Decline

Hat tip to Cobradriver for this unbelievable practice revealed:


This two-bedroom house at 1857 Prospect St. in Sarasota, bought for $453,900 in 2007, was just resold for $523,900. But the deal was a deed in lieu of foreclosure and no money changed hands. So why would a bank pay nearly $3,700 in stamp taxes?

The Herald Tribune has the story:
C&M had defaulted on a $408,500 mortgage, and Bank of Commerce was claiming its collateral. No money actually changed hands, according to Charles Murphy, the bank's chief executive.

Then why did the bank bother paying nearly $3,700 in documentary stamp taxes to make it look like the property had been sold for $523,900?
...
"The loan balance is the main consideration," Dart said. "That and any unpaid interest."

--------------------
Any questions?

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

30 months Too Late


By my estimate $2.5T in MEW is unsupported by reasonable asset valuation. In total somewhere between $7T and $9T in phantom equity is exposed in any retracement to the mean. An orderly retreat will allow inflation to eat away much of this. A decline in the dollar may result in a disproportionate amount of pain to be taken by foreign investors. No matter how the pain is spread, there will be consumer pain. Likewise because of govt spending policies that resemble the proverbial cricket in summer we can expect massive deficits and even larger tax inceases. - Aug 6, 2006


And what does the MSM say?:
U.S. Homeowners Lost $5.9 Trillion Since 2006 Peak
By Dan Levy

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homeowners have lost about $5.9 trillion in value since the housing market’s peak in March 2006 as mounting foreclosures and the recession weighed on prices, according to Zillow.com.

Almost half a trillion dollars was wiped out this year through November as housing headed for a third straight annual decline. New foreclosures and higher mortgage rates in 2010 may hinder a rebound, the property data service said today in a statement.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Let's Play Does It Float?

Not that there's any open bodies of water anywhere near Victorville but there sure are more and more possible signs of a reasonable real estate investment market.
How would this one pencil out?

13752 Bluegrass:
Year Built: 2003 4 total bedroom(s) 2 total bath(s)
2 total full bath(s) Approximately 2277 sq. ft.
Fireplace in the Den 3 car garage
Central air conditioning Lot is 7205 sq. ft.

Decent house, not a mess, established neighborhood. Taxes don't appear too high.

Here's what the whacky z-people think they know.


$70k purchase, $5k costs. You'll need $20,000 and a $55,000 mortgage at ~6%. Payment $340. Taxes $160. I'd put at least $100 toward upkeep. It's gonna cost ya $600/mo to own this place plus $100/month lost opportunity cost of tying up $20k. These are tough times and so I'd have to factor 15% vaccancy. You'd need to rent for $825/month.

Yes, it floats.

Now for a rant. You all know the z data is hopelessly inaccurate. No news there but check out this bit:

That's Bing™ on top with a 2009 Copyright of 2008 NAVTEO material. These houses were built in 2003 no doubt these images are 2001 or earlier. Abusive application of supposed copyrights is getting entirely out of control.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

The Eyes of Laura St.

1446 Laura St. to be exact.

Check out the listing history:
Oct 17, 2009 Price Changed $235,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 14, 2009 Price Changed $265,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2008 Price Changed $299,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Jul 21, 2007 Price Changed $309,000 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 28, 2007 Price Changed $329,900 -- MRMLS #I721298
Apr 02, 2007 Listed $344,000 -- MRMLS #I721298

As we close in on the 1000 day listing you would think they'd have learned a few lessons. They've made 30 mortgage payments and 5 tax payments in this time while losing equity faster and faster. Had they listed in April 2007 for $275,000 they'd have closed in a month. Instead they've spent $25k and watched another $50k evaporate.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Price Drop La Loma


Rancho Margarita - A rare find in Somis! This 4BR/3BTH home sits on 11.66 acres with spectacular ocean and valley views from nearly every room. Open floorplan with common areas upstairs and three of four bedrooms downstairs. Numerous balconies, large windows and sliding doors bring the outside in. Large master suite with private patio and ocean/island views from the bathtub. Pool, spa and BBQ area are set to the ultimate backdrop. Four car extra-deep garage with additional work area. Large downstairs laundry room could be second kitchen to create potential inlaw unit. The hilltop home is surrounded by stately pine and sycamore trees, providing ultimate privacy from the few neighbors. A paved private road winds through the orchard, giving direct access to La Loma Ave; stop at the 2-stall barn with separate tack room and outside pen area - ideal for your farm animals. Nine shares of Del Norte ag water and private reservoir irrigate approx 800 avocado trees.
-------
Nov 10, 2009 Price Changed $1,449,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Oct 13, 2009 Listed $1,550,000 -- VCRDS #90016961
Aug 13, 2009 Price Changed $1,550,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Apr 12, 2009 Listed $1,750,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
-------
Fifty thousand dollars off. $301,000 off original price. Sorry but 3% doesn't freshen the listing. Hat tip to "Effective Demand" who noticed the price drop. Maybe 20% more and I can afford it and it makes sense.

Backing out the taxable basis ($2100/yr) it looks like a 1989/1990 sale for approximately $160k. Nice.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

SoCal ROI for Sept '08 to Sept '09


First some background and the results for July:

40 years ago Ventura and Orange counties were virtually identical. Obviously they've taken different paths to get where they are today. In one respect however they have roughly paced each other; median housing prices. For one month at the peak the Ventura median exceeded Orange. With the smaller base Ventura is more exagerated and quicker to respond.
Here are the "returns" for your housing investment purchase of the median house in SoCal Jul '08:
Los Angeles $80k down payment $6600/mo equity decline -99%/yr return
Orange $92k down payment $3400/mo equity decline -44%/yr return
Riverside $52k down payment $6200/mo equity decline -144%/yr return
San Bernardino $46k down payment $7500/mo equity decline -195%/yr return
San Diego $44k down payment $3700/mo equity decline -61%/yr return
Ventura $64k down payment $3800/mo equity decline -56%/yr return
I'd like to call your attention to what happened to the knife catchers in the Inland Empire (Riverside & San Bernardino) last year. Now, extrapolate. The IE has in the past been a leading indicator of the Coast. Ruh roh. I expect another leg down in the coastal communities but with substantial local variations.

Here's October:
Los Angeles $72k down payment $2500/mo equity decline -42%/yr return
Orange $85k down payment $340/mo equity increase +4.7%/yr return
Riverside $47k down payment $4375/mo equity decline -114%/yr return
San Bernardino $41k down payment $4580/mo equity decline -134%/yr return
San Diego $66k down payment $250/mo equity decline -3%/yr return
Ventura $77k down payment $1100/mo equity decline -43%/yr return

So much for buying at the bottom. This is definitely a metric worth watching.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

House Prices in Gold


Feb '06 median Ventura County home: $680k
Price of gold: $560/oz.
Median home price in gold: 1214 ounces.

Oct '09 median Ventura county home: $419k
Price of gold: $1000
Median home price in gold: 419 ounces.

Value today of the gold you bought in 2006 after selling your house: $1,214,000.

Turn one house into 3 in 3 years. Sounds like something Casey would do (in reverse).