Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Location Discriminatory Mortgages Redux



First what I wrote. OMG more than 8 years ago:

Tuesday, July 06, 2004
 Location Discriminatory Mortgages
I once thought "Location Efficient Mortgages" (LEMs could address the problem of exurban development patterns (e.g. living in Riverside and working in LA) but then my brain started working again. I call location efficient mortgages transit apartheid. "Location efficient mortgage" is like "smart growth." Who would want a location -inefficient- mortgage or who would support dumb growth. Meaningless catch phrases, nothing more. Location Discriminatory Mortgages are the exactly descriptive phrase. Funny how the old VA loan policies that inadvertently used to favor new suburban housing, and jumpstarted the exurban nation trend, were struck down as unfair by the very same people advocating this new version of redlining. (Red Line as in Los Angeles and Boston, etc.) I'm surprised at the willingness of people who claim to want fairness to resort to unequal treatment (LEMs, density bonuses, transit subsidies, tax breaks) as a first step when they agree with the agenda. I'm also concerned about the unintended consequences that always appear. We both know that govt with good intentions ALWAYS results in unanticipated problems. In the case of LEMs; people will buy near transit, use more transit, pay less taxes to local govt and eventually get cars. Result, normal traffic overloading local roads while burdened by higher transit subsidies. In case you haven't noticed I'm describing LEMs in terms of transit but we were talking about POV commute patterns and Prop 13. That's because of two things. First LEMs have been hijacked by transit advocates despite there being no connection. Second, lenders already do a little of this when you apply for a mortgage. They take into account your living costs including travel budgets when determining lending limits.

Now what the New york Times (of course) is pushing:

Factoring in Commuting Costs

MORTGAGE lenders do not figure in a household’s likely commuting costs when weighing loan applications, but a recent study suggests that borrowers of moderate means would be smart to calculate these costs themselves before buying.

The study, published in October by the Center for Housing Policy and the Center for Neighborhood Technology, looked at transportation and housing costs in the 25 largest metropolitan areas. It found that transportation costs rose faster than incomes in every area over the last decade.

That has added to the financial burden shouldered by moderate-income homeowners, defined as households earning 50 to 100 percent of a metropolitan area’s median income. Transportation consumes 30 percent of their income, on average. Add housing costs to that and the combined cost burden rises to 72 percent.
...
The study also found that some metropolitan areas generally considered more affordable than New York become less so after transportation is figured in. For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system.
...
Scott Bernstein, the president of the Center for Neighborhood Technology in Chicago, argues that transportation costs are quantifiable enough that they ought to be factored into underwriting. And they were, during the first half of the last decade, in an experiment the center conducted jointly with Fannie Mae. Called a “Location-Efficient Mortgage,” the product was a contrasting proposition to the “drive till you qualify” strategy of finding an affordable home. The mortgage compensated borrowers applying to buy in areas with lots of transportation choices, and close to jobs and amenities.
...
Tested in a handful of markets before 2007, the mortgages were issued to about 2,000 borrowers and, based on the center’s evaluation of a representative sample, showed a very low default rate. But the experiment ended with the mortgage market collapse.
...
The national calculator could be ready by year’s end. Another calculator developed by the center, called Abogo (abogo.cnt.org), lets people plug in an address and find out what a typical household in that area spends on transportation.

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Unfuggingbelievable. Let's start at the top and tackle other bits in later posts. "For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system." Texas income tax 0%. New York State 6.85%, New York City ~3%. Idiots with calculators and agendas are dangerous.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Amazing Divergence

This is Anadarco Petroleum [red] and the UNG natural gas ETF [blue] from Nov '07 to Nov '08:

This makes sense seeing as APC is very much a natgas company.

Now look at what's happened Nov '08 to Nov '09:

This is where you are left scratching your head. Why is a nat gas company up 60% when its product is getting 60% less when sold?

Unless you think natgas prices are going to return to and blow through last summer's highs I see a fundamental disconnect.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Pennant Formation


This is the HGX. The Philly Housing Index.

No points for correctly predicting which way it will break.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Diving Back In

Peripheral Visionary says:
Rob, I have to give you credit on the market calls: you don't worry about timing, but the direction has been right more often than not.

I'd love to get back into this market, but volatility and irrational exuberance being what it is, I'm having to sit it out. Still in gold, I hate it as an "investment" (it's not), but what choice do I have? In twelve months it will be one huge round of monetary authorities trying to debase their currency faster than their neighbors, no choice but to try and hedge for now. If oil takes another leg down I may switch to it as my currency hedge, but I'm not completely decided on that.
----
Thanks. It should be noted that you can either call market direction or you can call times but not both. I've been lucky with my calling the direction and I'll take that. The good news about 7800 is that it isn't being labelled an Obama bounce.

I'm with you PV. There's going to be an entry point eventually. If S&P goes to 550 it would be hard to pick a bad stock from the survivors. I've mentioned before the possibility of Microsoft selling for less than their cash on hand. We may get double luck with Apple if it experiences its usual big giveback at the same time the market goes down in general. Maybe something in the $60s? Wood products are beaten down as well.

So. Anything I like now? No. nothing. I'm not going to even look at anything with an eye to buying now. Too many elephants dancing for my tastes. When I dive in I'll make sure I'm well equipped and I'll announce my intentions in advance.

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Friday, October 24, 2008

Stocks


But what do I know? Walruses belong in the water regardless. Like I said, it seems too soon but this looks like the at least 8200 next step we discussed. And still no homebuilders bankrupt.

A reminder:

NYSE Announces Fourth-Quarter 2008 Circuit-Breaker Levels
NEW YORK , September 30, 2008 -- The New York Stock Exchange will implement new circuit-breaker collar trigger levels for fourth-quarter 2008 effective Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading is halted marketwide for single-day declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Circuit-breaker levels are set quarterly as 10, 20 and 30-percent of the DJIA average closing values of the previous month, rounded to the nearest 50 points.

In fourth-quarter 2008, the 10, 20 and 30-percent decline levels, respectively, in the DJIA will be as follows:

Level 1 Halt
A 1,100-point drop in the DJIA before 2 p.m. will halt trading for one hour; for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m.; and have no effect if at 2:30 p.m. or later unless there is a level 2 halt.

Level 2 Halt
A 2,200-point drop in the DJIA before 1:00 p.m. will halt trading for two hours; for one hour if between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m.; and for the remainder of the day if at 2:00 p.m. or later.

Level 3 Halt
A 3,350-point drop will halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the decline occurs.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Mulligan Investment


The CNBC Half Million Dollar Challenge

The sponsors like to call it a million dollar challenge but it is an annuity and present value minus taxes in California it is more like $400,000. No matter. I'm doing it for the practice. No way am I gonna come close to winning. I'm really investing. The wildest ride in the theme park I'm building is Apple, pretty staid for trying to triple in 11 weeks which is what I think it will take to win. After Day 1 I'm in the 28th percentile. Seeing as I only invested half and the remainder doesn't earn interest, that's pretty good/lucky. Mostly luck as one day with the likes of Berkshire Hathaway and AAPL and Lucent isn't investing. If I don't recognize a one day gain of $9,000 as luck I've no business pretending I'm an investor. We'll see after a few days.

Now, I'm surely not the only person here playing. How are you all doing and any tips?